473. The Road to The Great War: The Tsar Chooses War (Part 5)
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Under pressure. I always love the story about Churchill when he became prime minister in 1914. It's all kicking off. The Germans are invading in the east. And he says that that night he went back home and he slept like a baby because the pressure that this was the culmination of everything he'd been planning for. And actually, he was at his best under enormous pressure. This is the moment that he lived for.

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Corfu, 8 May 1909 Dearest Nikki, As Hintzer is returning for your birthday, I gladly seize the opportunity to send you these lights. With all my heart, I wish you many happy returns. May heaven bless and protect you and your wife and children. May you be successful in your work for your country and the welfare of your people.

Will you kindly accept as birthday present a watercolour sketch made by a clever, coffee-ed painter representing the Achilleon seen from the olive grove at the foot of the hill? We spent a lovely time there under a blue sky, surrounded by sweet scents and flowers, sitting on the marble terraces in the shade of fine palm trees.

Oh, I hope that once I may be able to show you this paradise when you chance to be yachting in the Mediterranean. Oh, the island is lovely and the people quiet, simple and very polite. And no tourists. Now, goodbye, dearest Nicky. Best love to Alex and the children, especially the boy. God bless and protect you. Au revoir, I hope.

And believe me, ever your most affectionate and devoted friend and cousin, Philly. So Dominic, that is a most charming letter, isn't it? It is. Full of love of flowers, of the landscape of beautiful Corfu, generosity of spirit. Watercolors. Yeah. And people may be wondering, who is this?

This charming man who has sent this delightful letter. This lover of watercolors, of the flowers of Greece. And it's our old friend, the Kaiser. It is.

It is. Who appears in a very unexpected light at times, doesn't he, in this series? Well, we've already had him going around gardens. With Franz Ferdinand. So we know that this is part of his character. And of course, this is a reminder that the Kaiser and the Tsar, they're the heads of these two bristling war machines, but they're also cousins. They are.

And there's this whole series of messages. They're famously called the Nikki Vili telegrams. And we will be coming back to these messages later in this episode. They have been sending for many years. So this one is five years before the outbreak of war. These messages are kind of semi-public, semi-private. All the stuff about give my love to Alex and the children, that's obviously a private and genuine message. But...

Foreign office officials would help the various emperors draft these messages and put in them sentiments about avoiding war and about settling diplomatic disputes and so on. There's a couple of other interesting things in this one, which I found online. So Kaiser says...

in this letter he says when i went to corfu i was really looking forward to a proper holiday because i worked so hard and then he says but when we got there we found out there's a revolution in constantinople so i had to do lots of paperwork and he says to him we poor rulers it seems are not entitled to holidays like other simple mortals the note of self-pity is so amusing yeah and then the other thing that appealed to me the kaiser is furious he says the papers i work for peace as do you

But the newspapers are always stirring up antagonism between our two countries. And he says, a lot of newspaper writers, a lot of commentators and columnists just are completely ignorant. But more dangerous and at the same time more loathsome is that part of the press which writes what it is paid for. They incite the hostility of one nation against another. And when at last through the hellish devices they have brought about the much desired collision, they persist.

They placidly sit down to watch the fight. So Dominic, as an erstwhile columnist in the Daily Mail and a columnist in the Times, do you feel seen by the Kaiser? The sting of reproach? I do, yeah. I feel judged by the Kaiser. That's not a good position to be in. Good, yeah.

The thing that strikes me about this is that actually it's a reminder of how close he is to Austria because the Achilleion that he mentions, this is a tremendous palace, about 10 miles perhaps from the main city in Corfu. And it was the palace that Sisi, the Princess Diana of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the wife of...

Emperor Franz Joseph and the mother of Prince Rudolph who shot himself and thereby enabled Franz Ferdinand to become the heir to the throne. That's where she retired.

and lived. And the Kaiser absolutely loves it. Have you been to it? Have you seen it? No, I've never been to Corfu. In the garden. I mean, it's a beautiful place. It really is gorgeous. And the Kaiser is not exaggerating about the beauty of its flowers. But out in the garden, there is an enormous statue of Achilles. So hence the name, the great Greek warrior with a very, very skimpy kind of mini skirt. So he's, you know, dressed as a hoplite. And you

you know, you're upskirting. Right. It's very difficult to avoid gazing up at the buttocks. Well, that would put to bed all those questions that have floated around in Berlin newspapers about the seamier side of the Kaiser's inner circle. Yeah, that would resolve that. Exactly. And the inscription on the

on that sculpture, although it's no longer there, but it's brilliant. It's to the greatest Greek from the greatest German. So tremendous modesty. Great modesty from the Kaiser. And he's actually there. He goes to Corfu, I think, pretty much every year. And he was there in 1914. Really? So his happy place, I think. So in the past, you know, they have written to each other expressing their love of peace and promising to work together and all that kind of thing. But obviously they've never faced a situation like this one.

So we ended last time with the expiry of the Austrian ultimatum on Saturday, the 25th of July, scenes of celebration in Vienna. And yet, of course, at this point, the Austrians have still not fired a shot. So the next day, Sunday, the 26th, they meet at about midday or the Austrian high command. And, you know, the foreign minister, what they say to General Conrad, who's been pressing for war all this time. Yeah.

Right. Are you ready? And he says, I know we're going to have to wait till 1922. Yeah. He says, I'm kind of ready. I think we should probably start in mid August would be ideal for me. That would suit me. Would that work for you? And they're like, what? They thought he was going to start straight away. So actually,

across Europe, there is a sense, even after they expire the ultimatum, we can work this out. We can get back from this. So if you'd stopped the clock at that point, Sunday the 26th of July, and said to some of these policymakers, will there be a world war? I think a lot of them would have said, there might.

But I'm hopeful, I have to be optimistic, that we can somehow sort all this out. So for example, we talked last time about Sir Edward Grey, the British Foreign Secretary. He has put on the table a scheme for mediation, which is basically, you know, there'll be a sort of court, as it were, of Britain, France, Germany and Italy, and they will adjudicate the dispute between Austria and Serbia. Of course, what he doesn't know is that there

that the window of opportunity for that, insofar it ever existed, is closing very fast as the different nations are kind of hardening their position. And the next day, the Monday, the 27th, the Germans are pretty clear that they will never go along with this. And they say, look, we cannot support this because we will be dragging our one ally and friend before a court. Like, it needs to be arbitrated. And actually, the Austrians have been very hard done by it. The air has been shot.

they are entitled to take defensive measures. And I think you get the first sense that day, which is the Monday, that Gray himself is beginning to lose patience and to realize that actually this might not be a success. So he actually makes it public for the first time. He goes into the Commons and says, this is my plan. I want to have a conference in London. I want to mediate. And he says, you know,

Again, giving the lie to those critics who say old men took the world into war and they thought it'd be over by Christmas and it would be a great laugh and a jamboree. Gray says explicitly, if we don't get this right, if we don't sort it out, it will end in the greatest catastrophe that has ever befallen the continent of Europe. In the cabinet, when they talk about it that evening in Britain, the mood is very gloomy. And actually, a lot of the liberals say...

A guy called John Burns, who was the president of the World Trade. Why four great powers should fight over Serbia, no fellow can understand. But four, not five. Right. Four, not five. Exactly. And what about Asquith? Is he still kind of chilling out, hanging out with his girlfriend? Asquith is very chilled. Because he's, of course, thinking about his relationship with Venetia Stanley all this time. We talked about that a little bit in a previous episode. He's completely besotted this summer with Venetia. After the cabinet meeting, he writes to her and he says, we had this cabinet meeting.

I mean, it's unbelievable that he's betraying all these secrets. She's not even really his girlfriend. I mean, she's his daughter's friend.

And he says, Gray wants to have this conference. The Germans don't want to do it. The only real hope is that Austria and Russia may come to a deal. But then he ends the letter. That's a pretty quiet evening at the house. I'm actually going to get Violet, that's his daughter, to beat up one or two people to dine at home and play bridge. So, you know, I'm not going to let this bother me. I'm not going to distract me from my important card games routine. I mean, to be fair, you might say it's better that he's fresh.

I mean, there's no point in working himself to death over this. Don't work too hard. That's absolutely my attitude, Tom. You know my views on Asquith. I do. I think that's his admirable sang-froid from an absolutely tip-top prime minister. And I applaud it. I like it. Okay.

All right. But maybe we should bring the Kaiser back onto stage. We should. Because this is very exciting because he's been on his holiday, hasn't he, in the fjords? Yes. And the only time I've been to Norway, we went to the hotel where they have the chair that he was sitting on when news was brought to him saying, you've got to come back because things are getting out of control. Oh, did you sit in it? Yeah, I did. I sat in it. And did you feel the weight of the Kaiser's... I communed. Yeah. I felt possessed by his spirit. And this is why, as you say, I've turned into the Kaiser.

Well, Tom, this is such a great subject for you. You've got Sir Edward Grey's hat or a simulacrum of it. Yeah. You went to his cottage or the site of it and you've sat in the Kaiser's chair. Yeah. Incredible. So you have a real insight. This is personal for you. Yeah, I really do. And this is why I have such a handle on the whole episode. Yeah. Because I can see from both sides, Dominic. Well, that's commendable. Yeah. So the Kaiser has been away for three weeks on his yacht, the Hohenzollern.

He's been to the Kiel Regatta and there's been loads of great larks and bants with Royal Navy officers there.

No sign of Anglo-German antagonism at the regatta. It's all been smiles and sort of handshakes and stuff. And then he's gone off to Norway. Now, all this time, he has been interested in the case because he's been telegraphing, as is always his way. He's been sending unwanted advice to other European royals. Yeah, well, that never happens because when I go on holiday, I never send messages or emails, say, about the podcast ever. Yeah, unwanted advice where people reply saying, Tom, you're on holiday. Pipe down. That Kaiser parallel, uncanny.

So the Kaiser still believes in all this time that there won't be a general war. There is no doubt about that. When they present him, so when he's in that chair and they present him with the text of the ultimatum, he says to the head of his naval staff, Admiral Muller, he says, well, what do you know? It's a firm note after all. In other words, he's surprised that the Austrians have not just wimped out a bit, which he seems to have expected them to do. Admiral Muller says,

I actually think this could mean war. I don't see how we back down from this.

And Wilhelm says, oh, no, no, no. The Serbs would never risk a war against Austria and the Russians would never pile in. And Aaron Muller thinks at the time he is deluding himself because he just cannot bring himself to contemplate the reality. Because he's such a man of peace. He's a blusterer. He's Mr. Toad. Because when it comes to it, actually, he will always try to back away. Now, we will see in this story whether this is what happens, whether the Kaiser does indeed try to back away. So on Monday the 27th, so it's now a day and a half after the expiry of the ultimatum,

He arrives back in Germany. His chancellor, Theobald Bethmann-Holweg, has said to him, please don't come to Berlin. Don't come into the center of the city. There will be demonstrations of support for you. There will be very excited crowds who think that you're coming back to declare war or something. We can't afford anything like that. You go to your palace in Potsdam. And the Kaiser is very displeased about this. He says, this is getting madder. Now that man instructs me, I may not show myself to my people. But he does as he's told.

He goes to his palace and everybody there, the general sense is, you know, this is going to be a bit tricky, but there will not be a world war. His aide to camp, his adjutant, Hans von Plessen, writes in his diary, you know, the Austrians aren't even ready to get going. We hope to localize the war. England declares that she wishes to remain neutral. This is the belief in Berlin at this point. You know, they have listened to Prince Lichnowsky telling them, oh, Edward Grey feels a bit of sympathy for Austria. He doesn't want a war. And so they tell themselves,

The British are definitely going to stay out. And Hans von Plessen writes, I have the impression that nothing much will come of this matter. Which almost exactly echoes Asquith. Yeah, exactly. So this is what they are all telling themselves. Now, they have, of course, bargained without the Kaiser wading in. He can't stop himself.

Like you, Tom, he gets up very early. So on Tuesday, the 28th of July, he's also a sportsman, like you. Yeah. He goes riding every day at 7.30 in the morning. Commendable behaviour. But before then, he always does his paperwork. Again, commendable behaviour. He's dutiful. And he goes through all the paperwork from three weeks while he's been on holiday. And towards the bottom is the Serbian reply to the ultimatum. Chris Clark, I think, calls it a perfumed rejection of the Austrian. The Kaiser, because he's a bit of a fool...

opens it and says oh my god this is unbelievable i can't believe this the serbians have accepted everything and he actually says and i quote a brilliant achievement for a deadline of a mere 48 hours this is more than one could expect a great moral victory for vienna it removes every reason for war and he says that the austrian ambassador giesel could have stayed in belgrade well i would never have ordered mobilization in response the austrians haven't actually ordered mobilization at this point but

But this is somebody, it seems to me, the very hostile view of the Kaiser that you get from, say, his biographer, John C. Ruhl, who says, oh, the Kaiser's a monster and he's itching for war. These aren't the words to me of a man itching for war. These are actually the words of a man who can't wait to grab the chance of peace. I agree. I mean, I think he's coming out of this much, much better than I had anticipated. Yeah. And unfortunately,

Other historians, so even ones who are quite critical of the Kaiser, let's say Thomas Otte in his book, July Crisis, he says, when it comes to this, the Kaiser actually shows much more common sense and intelligence than many of his much better educated, more intelligent officials. Yeah, because, I mean, the Austrians could have said, well, this is a win. Yeah. You accept that we're right. Okay, fine. Yeah. And we'll take you at your word. And actually, we will take you to court. You know, we will insist on holding you to account for every last jot of your perfumed

acceptances or rejections of our points. Because doesn't the Kaiser suggest this? Yes. He says, well, why don't you just say, yeah, we've won. Yeah. He's not wrong, right? Now, the thing is, his aide-de-camp, they're out riding and the Kaiser makes this point. And his aide-de-camp says, people aren't idiots. The Austrians need something tangible. They need something to show their public that they've got some measure of retribution for the crime that's been committed. And the Kaiser says, well, I have a brilliant idea. I mean, he's a great ideas man, as we know.

He says, given that Belgrade, as you have reminded us, Tom, channeling the Kaiser, is so close to the Austrian frontier, and Belgrade, by the way, is now partially deserted because people have fled Belgrade and the Serbians are preparing to move the government south. So the Kaiser says, well, why don't the Austrians just cross the river, go into Belgrade, obviously

Occupy it peacefully. I think it's a brilliant idea. He says the Serbs are orientals and therefore deceitful and false. That's a quote. It's not me saying it. He says that you need a deposit, as it were. And what better than Belgrade? Yeah. I came up with this idea, didn't I? Did you? Yeah.

When did you come up with this idea? A couple of episodes ago. I said, this is a tremendous idea. This is what they should do. Just occupy Belgrade. Well, I mean, it's amazing that you and the Kaiser have come up with exactly the same idea. Wow. Absolutely uncanny. And Otty in his book, July Crisis says, you know, maybe this actually wasn't such a mad idea. You know, it kind of could have worked in some, in some way. Anyway, the trouble is, of course, the Kaiser has come up with mad ideas in the past. A podcast on Chatham High Street is

invading Puerto Rico. Yeah. All of these. But what if they're not mad? I mean, what if actually they're quite good ideas and, you know, the Kaiser is just surrounded by po-faced naysayers who refuse to recognize his genius, Dominic. Yes. Yeah. Just for the sake of argument. Yeah. I mean, what if? What if, right? I mean, you might just want to stare into the mirror. Well, the thing is, I think it's fair to say that these so-called naysayers have been brutalized by ridiculous gimmicks and schemes, Tom. Yeah.

So, Erich von Falkenhayn, the Prussian war minister says,

Yet again, he is making senseless utterances. Yeah, well, this sounds very familiar. That show clearly he does not want war any longer. He's quite happy to leave Austria in the lurch. You see, this is the issue. They have defined it as we have to be a supportive, loyal friend. Our honor and prestige are bound up with this. And now for the Kaiser to say, actually, I've kind of changed my mind. Why don't the Austrians just have a little dig at Serbia and then stop? A lot of his own men say, I'm not going to sell this to the Austrians. This will annoy our only ally.

So actually, they do transmit the idea, but in an incredibly vague and half-hearted way. And the Austrians just say, well, we have no interest in this. And the reason they have no interest in it is twofold. Number one, they say, this actually won't fix the problem. We'll take the city, but the Serbs will all have got away. And all of those

bad guys, Apis and the Black Hand and all of those people. But they don't know about them, do they? They don't know about them, but they know there's somebody like them. They'll all be swanning around in Nis in the south of Serbia and we won't have got our hands on them. Kind of communing with skulls. Right, exactly. Very fondling, severed breasts in briefcases and all the other stuff. Yeah, poor Balkan behaviour, I think it's fair to say. And also, their war plan, bizarrely, doesn't actually involve them launching a huge assault on Belgrade. That's mad. Why?

Why not? They want to bypass the capital and they want to wipe out the Serbian army. That's what General Conrad wants to do. He wants to invade from the west. So actually they say, let's just ignore the Kaiser. Tom, is this at all familiar? It is. Let's just pretend this never happened and he'll forget about it and move on to something else. Yeah. All these WhatsApp messages I never see. Yeah. Now, meanwhile, some of the Kaiser's generals are now actively preparing for war. And this is a chance to bring on stage another slightly bizarre character, who is the German chief of staff.

the man in charge of the war plans, who at this very moment, while the Kaiser is going around telling everybody about his brilliant scheme, this guy, Helmut Moltke the Younger, is writing his big report on the military situation, how they're going to deal with it. And everybody in this story

has kind of demons, skeletons in their closet, shadows. Melancholia. Yeah, melancholia. So Helmut Moltke the Younger, his uncle was the guy who'd won the Franco-Prussian War. And he lives in the shadow of his uncle and everybody basically all his life has said, he's all right, but he's not as good as his uncle. And he's had to live with that. He's also, he's a cellist. Well, he's German, so he's bound to play a musical instrument. He's very melancholy.

He's a Christian scientist. I don't actually really know what a Christian scientist is, but he's also very keen on the occult and spiritualism. So he's a huge admirer of someone called Madame Blavatsky. Are you familiar with her work? Yeah, I am. Theosophy. Yeah, theosophy. So he believes in reincarnation. But all of this means that Moltke is incredibly pessimistic and fatalistic.

He sort of thinks whatever will happen will happen. It'll all end in tears and disaster. Right. So we were talking about how kind of the bellicosity, such as it was of the German high command, is interfused with a sense of bleakness. Yes. That it will all be for nothing and that Germany is doomed. Yeah. And I guess he's the kind of embodiment of it, isn't he, really? So Moltke, if you remember, he's been to a spa town, which is not good for you, taking the water as a Germanic spa in

in Bohemia. So he's been basically drinking sulphur or whatever you do for the last three weeks. I think you throw medicine balls. Yeah. And just eating like pieces of celery. So that hasn't added to his general jollity one jot. And all that sulphur in the water. Yeah. Not good for the bowels. Precisely.

So he's been going around for years saying, you know, we'll have to fight the Russians one day. The sooner the better. If we wait any longer, we'll be absolutely crushed. And right now, he says, this whole crisis has been engineered by the French and the Russians. Clearly, they encircle us. They're about to attack us. We should make preparations right away. You know, dig out our plan to strike West, all of this stuff. And yet the extraordinary thing is, even in this memo, he says at the end, you know, we should prepare for the conflict. It's inevitable.

And it will annihilate the civilization of all Europe. But, you know, why not? Whatever, let's go for it. Yeah. Well, we have to go for it because if we don't, we will be wiped from the map. It's a strange, fatalistic bellicosity, isn't it? Yeah. I think they see themselves as almost like Wagnerian heroes. You know, Gutter Dammerung or something. They will be consumed by fire, but at least they can die sword in hand. Songs will be sung of them. Right. In ages to come. Exactly. Exactly.

So this is what's going on in Berlin. But actually, interestingly, Moltke and the war minister Falkenhayn want to have military preparations right now

But the Chancellor, Theobald Bethmann-Holweg, says no. The civilians are still in charge. So it's not quite true, as some people think, that Germany is effectively a military dictatorship in all but name. That's not right. The civilians are still in charge, and they say, we do not want to alarm Russia, so we won't mobilize, we won't do any of that just yet. Meanwhile, the Austrians have finally, unbelievably, got their act together.

So it's now Tuesday, the 28th of July, exactly a month since the murder of Franz Ferdinand and Sophie. Franz Josef signs the declaration of war on Serbia with a quill pen, an ostrich feather quill in his study at Bad Ischl. Like everybody, this sets the tone. His proclamation, which is in 10 different languages, because of course a multilingual, multi-ethnic empire, and he's

And he says, we have been forced to draw the sword. We didn't want to, but we're surrounded by an enemy filled with hatred. And, you know, we're doing this with great reluctance, but it's our only course. Defensive aggression. Defensive aggression, exactly. Now, unbelievably, it's only at this point, after they've done it, after they've declared war, that Count Berkutov, the foreign minister, says to General Conrad, just to check, if the Russians do intervene...

It's only just occurred to me, actually, that that's a plausible possibility. You have got plans for that. I mean, you've war-gamed it. Right. We do have enough troops to deal with Serbia and hold the eastern frontier. And Comrade says, well, it's rather late to be asking me that now, isn't it? Because the answer is no, they don't. Oh, God. And so Bertolt says, oh, well, I'm sure it'll be fine, actually. I'll tell our ambassador to use decided language to deter the Russians. So I'm sure it'll be okay.

So if we just stop the story at this point, 28th of July, what are the plausible outcomes? So one possibility, of course, is having declared war, the Austrians then don't do anything. This is a kind of slightly Kaiser scenario. Or maybe they just go into Belgrade across the bridge or bridges and then stop. That's my plan. That's what I would have done. That's your plan. Of course, they don't want to do that. They think that would be humiliating and weird when they've been gearing up, as it were, for the war.

literally to root out the terrorists. That's what they're doing. It's like America in Afghanistan after 9-11. If you don't get the terrorists, what was the point in doing it in the first place? So that's option number one.

Option number two is the Austrians do attack and miraculously the Russians don't intervene. So the Russians do back down. And we have already described how unlikely that is and we will see how the Russians do respond. And of course, option number three is a world war. And even at this point, I think a world war option is by far the most likely of the possible options because...

Because that very afternoon, after the Austrian declaration of war in St. Petersburg, a couple of people who we talked about two episodes ago, the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Sazonov, and the ludicrous French ambassador, Maurice Paliolog, the guy who writes fake reports. Yeah, the fictionalized accounts of his meeting with the Tsar before he's actually met the Tsar. Yes, exactly.

They meet and they say, you know, we're not going to back down on this. Strength is the only language that these Austrians understand. We can't back down. And so Sazonov, the foreign minister, goes to the Peterhof Palace, the Tsar's palace, and

And he says, you've already signed an order to mobilize the four Western military districts, Odessa, Kyiv, Moscow, and Kazan. Now I would like you to agree to sign an order in principle for general mobilization of our armies. In other words, get them onto the railways, start moving them towards the frontier, all military preparations begun.

Because if we don't and the central powers, Germany and Austria, strike first, it will be too late. So in other words, we have to steal a march and then we have to get going now. And they have to do that because Russia obviously is so much larger. It's large and slow. And they say, we will put one of these two orders into operation, either just the four districts or the whole Russian empire. And basically the decision is which we do. So the option of doing nothing is not on the table. No, there's no question of doing nothing.

And Nicholas, as he goes to bed that night, he has that choice hanging over him. We can just do a partial mobilization, which would just be sending a signal to the Austrians and the Germans or general, which is kind of, I mean, it's more than a signal. That is basically taking a very big step towards war. So he goes to bed that night, Tuesday the 28th. Then in the early hours, Wednesday the 29th, just after midnight,

suddenly there was this massive explosion outside Belgrade. And what has happened is a group of Serbians under a character from our Sarajevo series, Major Vojislav Tankovic, so one of these key figures in grooming and arming the killers, Princip and his gang, they blow up the railway bridge, which is the crucial link between Belgrade and Austria-Hungary. So there's this huge explosion that is kind of reverberating around Belgrade.

And then shortly afterwards, three Austro-Hungarian river warships come into view through the darkness. And they are at the point where the Sava meets the Danube right opposite this great stronghold, the Kalemegdan Citadel that overshadows Belgrade. And it's at two o'clock that morning that a warship with the splendid name of the Bodrog, very, very Tolkien, the Bodrog opens fire on the Citadel and on the Serbian positions on the South Bank. So these are

the shots that are designed as revenge for Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophie, but these are also of course the shots that effectively open the First World War. Well, on that note, the tension is so great that I think we need a break. We'll be back in a few minutes. This episode is brought to you by ZipRecruiter. Some of the best decisions we make in our lives happen under

under pressure. I always love the story about Churchill when he became prime minister in 1914. It's all kicking off. The Germans are invading in the east and he says that that night he went back home and he slept like a baby because the pressure that this was the culmination of everything he'd been planning for and actually he was at his best under enormous pressure. This is the moment that he lived for.

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Hello, welcome back to The Rest Is History and welcome to what I think is the most dramatic day

of the building crisis so far, isn't it? Shots have been fired. Yes. I guess the first world war has begun. Yeah. But as yet it's Austria on Serbia. None of the other great powers have yet been drawn into the conflict, but things are looking bad. Though not in Vienna where people have poured out onto the street in celebration when they've heard the news.

There's a big parade of veterans associations. There are about 100,000 people on the streets of Vienna, most of them young men, it has to be said. Although we get a brilliant insight into how ordinary Viennese, you know, not necessarily very bellicose people thought about this, from of all people, Sigmund Freud. So Freud wrote that day, for the first time in 30 years, I feel myself to be an Austrian and I feel like giving this not very hopeful empire another chance. And then the very peculiar line,

All my libido is dedicated to Austria-Hungary. I mean, I can only say lucky Austria-Hungary. So they may have a slightly disorganized army and a dithering high command, but they've got Freud's libido on their side. So it's all looking good. That same morning, Wednesday the 29th, where Freud is thinking about his libido, the British cabinet is meeting again to discuss this. And Sir Edward Grey, your man Tom, takes the lead. He is working for peace, Dominic.

Well, he has been working for peace. Yes. Yeah. He's very quiet and he's very serious. And he says, listen, with that news from Belgrade, stakes are really high now. There is a massive chance now that all Europe will be at war. And then, frankly, we will have a decision to make. And this is the first time that they discuss a country that we have not really mentioned at all in this series, or perhaps just in passing once or twice. And that is, of course, Belgium or France.

as we should probably say, plucky little Belgium. Plucky little Belgium with its empire in the Congo. That little bit at the end of the sentence is the bit that everybody misses off. It is, but for now we're sticking with plucky little Belgium. So Gray hands round papers that he's prepared on two treaties that were signed in 1839 and 1870. And he says, listen, this is why Belgium is an issue. So these treaties guaranteed Belgium's independence. And he says, look, every...

Everybody knows, it is common knowledge in Europe, that the Germans will go west first if there's a war. They will strike at France because the French are their most dangerous enemies and then they will turn back to deal with Russia. This is the so-called Schlieffen Plan, which historians now argue about whether it existed or not. Yeah, the sleeve of the German brushing the channel. Exactly, exactly. Now, they could go slightly further south in the sort of what were once Alsace and Lorraine that had been taken from France. However,

The French have got massive forts there. It's fortified citadels at Verdun, at Nancy, at Belfort and all these places. You'd be mad to attack there. You just can't attack there. So that leaves the Germans with only one option, which is to attack further north through Luxembourg and Belgium. So Belgium...

Belgium has only existed as a country since 1830. And it was sponsored by Britain, basically. It broke away from the Netherlands because it was Catholic and the Netherlands was Protestant. Britain was its big patron and sponsor because it wanted to buffer state against France in those days. And so it's a kind of guarantor. Yeah. Britain is a guarantor. So in 1839, all the great powers had signed a treaty. They'd all signed, not just Britain. The Prussians, for example, a commitment that was inherited by Germany. And then in 1870, in the Franco-Prussian War...

France and Prussia had agreed that they would both respect Belgian neutrality as long as the other one did as well. And they'd signed those treaties with Britain. So Gray says, listen, under these treaties, if the Germans do go through Belgium...

And if the Belgians appeal for help, we will be legally bound, legally obliged to help them. But in the same way that America and Britain are legally obliged to help Ukraine after signing that treaty. Yeah. To respect their independence and all the rest of it. Yes. But we got out of that. Yeah. We're not legally obliged to fight. So here's the thing. It's very clear, says Gray from our lawyers, that that help could just be diplomatic.

especially if the Belgians don't fight themselves. So if the Belgians just want us to kind of go to, I don't know, arbitration, sanctions. Yeah. Send a sternly phrased telegram. Yeah. To voice our enduring love of Belgium, Freight, whatever it might be. We could just do that. We have the option. He says it's a matter of policy rather than of legal obligation. And even Churchill accepts that. Everybody accepts that. They literally get out the map.

and they get out the map on the table david lloyd george the chancellor says look here

Probably the Germans are only going to go through the southern bit of Belgium. And in that case, everybody says, man, that case is a bit much to go to war about that, isn't it? And actually, even Churchill. So Churchill has been going around like a firework about to go off, isn't he, this week? He keeps going around saying, I've never been happier. War is coming. Yeah, well, he has this brilliant letter that he writes to Clemmie, his wife, where he says, everything tends towards catastrophe and collapse. I am interested, geared up and happy. But even Churchill, you see, who's gagging for war because he just loves wars, says...

I don't see why we should come in if they go only a little way into Belgium. And the reason they're saying that is Churchill also says war would be a calamity for the civilized nations. So they know, they absolutely know that great war will be a nightmare and they're keen to avoid it. And they are hoping that they can get out of doing it. So the cabinet meeting breaks up. There's no decision being made.

Gray goes off and he meets a group of liberal backbenchers and they say, could you go public? Could you say Britain will stay out? Because that might discourage the French and the Russians. And he says, no, I can't do that. I must be ambiguous. I need a free hand. I don't want to be tied down because that might encourage the Germans.

But I think you could say as a criticism of Gray that by this point, he's running out of time with his ambiguity. And actually, of course, all the time he has promised the French.

He has subcontracted his decision-making to the French because he has promised them, when it does come to the crunch, we will be there. And I think as much as you admire Gray, Tom, I think he is being a little bit disingenuous with his own colleagues. So this is the criticism in Neil Ferguson's book, The Pity of War, isn't it? Yes. I mean, this is the case he makes against Gray and says that Gray's ambiguity is

encouraged the other powers to go to war and then left Britain powerless to avoid being drawn into the meat grinder itself and should have stayed out. I think you can make the case that Gray's ambiguity, I mean, it obviously doesn't work because Britain is drawn into the war and the war happens. But you can understand why he's ambiguous. And the other thing I think about the criticism of Gray, actually, having made that criticism about the ambiguity,

I think people have a tendency to assume that rather like now when something happens, everyone blames the Americans, even if the Americans don't really control it at all. They say, well, the Americans should have stopped it. The American Secretary of State was asleep. The American Secretary of State should have sorted all this out. But sometimes it's just not the big powers. It's not in their power. You know, Gray did all that he could. Well, I think also because he has access to all the telegrams and papers and he's the one who's focusing on it even more than anyone else in cabinet, he is thinking it

it cannot be possible that we go to war over this. Our interests are not directly tied to it. It just seems unbelievable. But the truth of the fact that they're kind of trapped in this system is dawning on him faster than it is on his other colleagues. Oh, definitely. I think definitely by this point, the 28th, 29th, I think definitely by this point at the back of his mind, I think there's a cold feeling that you get when you know there's no escaping the disaster, but you just don't want to admit it to everybody else. But actually, as I've said, I'd

I don't think London is the great cockpit of this story. I mean, we're telling it from British perspective because we're British, but also because Britain is at this point the world's greatest power. So it makes a huge difference whether Britain's in the war or not.

But the people who are driving it are Vienna, Belgrade, Berlin and St. Petersburg. Yeah. But also we're looking at Britain because Britain hasn't yet made up its mind, whereas all the other participants have. Or have they? Because that morning, our old friend, the Kaiser, wakes up in Potsdam. And of course, he still thinks there's not going to be a war, hopes there's not going to be a war. And he is delighted to wake to a telegram. See, this is the reason we began with Corfu, with that letter.

He wakes to one of these messages from Nicky, his cousin, the Tsar.

And the Tsar says, you know, this is a very serious moment. I need your help. None of us want a war. I beg you in the name of our old friendship to do what you can to stop your allies from going too far. By which he means Austria-Hungary. Now, this telegram was Nicholas's own personal idea. Nicholas is in some ways a very irritating man. He's very autocratic. He's very stubborn. He's too reactionary, all of that stuff. But he

He hates the thought of war. He abhors it. And he is desperate to stop it. And he's surrounded by ministers who are egging him on to sign mobilization orders. And he says, I want to send my cousin a telegram that will sort this out. Now, as it happens, it overlaps with one that Vili has sent him.

And Willi has sent him a telegram that says, I'm trying to restrain the Austrians, which I have to say he sort of is, but the other people in Berlin are not. And he says, come on, Nicky, you and I hate terrorists and regicides.

These people should get their deserved punishment. Wilhelm says in this telegram, I understand how difficult it is for you and your government to face the drift of your public opinion, but please help me to resolve this. So they've both got these telegrams and then Wilhelm

And Vili writes another one. And he says, listen, I think the Austrians are behaving in self-defense. I promise you they won't seize any Serbian territory. They won't annex it after the war is over. Please don't mobilize your armies because I'm hoping to mediate between you and the Austrians. And that would make it impossible for me to do so.

So Wilhelm sends this. Now, Nicholas, he's not the sharpest tool in the cutlery drawer, the Tsar. He gets this telegram that evening and he says, oh my God, this is brilliant. Cousin Willi has come through after all. And he rings, you know how much he hates using the phone. He rings the foreign minister and he says, great news. The Kaiser hates the thought of war, so do I. I've actually been thinking and I have changed my mind. I don't like the thought of going to war at all. When Sassanoff, the foreign minister, hears this, he is gutted because...

because actually all day he and the other ministers have been deciding what to do and they have decided they will go for a general mobilisation. Now, I think this is sometimes underrated, especially in popular histories that take a very kind of anti-German line because this is a massive step in the escalation of the crisis. Because nobody yet has had a general mobilisation, not even the Austrians? No. Definitely not the Germans? No, the Germans are nowhere near it. So,

For the Russians to have done this... Now, look, I understand why they did it. They think they've got to steal a march on everybody else because they happen to be so big and lumbering and slow. But for them to do this, as Thomas Otte says in his book July Crisis, which is actually very critical of Germany and Austria, but he says of Russia at this point...

They rushed into this decision. The Austrians were still maybe 10 days off from a full attack on Serbia, so there was still time. They didn't need to force the pace of events in this way. And that once the Russians had gone down that road,

It's really hard to see how you get out of this without a war. Because that's terrifying for the Germans. Absolutely. To have this massive great leviathan on your doorstep mobilizing. Of course. Imagine a similar situation now. Imagine if suddenly you heard that Russian troops are massing on the borders of Poland or something. I mean, you don't think, oh, they'll probably just all go home afterwards. You think, oh my God, this is war. We have to immediately act. Otherwise, they'll just walk straight in. That's what the Germans think. Now, the thing is,

The Tsar knows this, Nicholas. And when he hears this, he says, no.

No. These are his words. I will not be responsible for a monstrous slaughter. And quite rightly, he says to his ministers, war would be disastrous for the world. Once it had broken out, it would be difficult to stop. The German emperor had frequently assured him of his sincere desire to safeguard the peace of Europe. And it had always been possible to come to an agreement with the Kaiser, even in serious cases. And you know what? If those monarchs had had as much power,

as people often think they did, then there would have been no world war. There's no doubt in my mind about that. So basically if the Russians hadn't made the Tsar more of a constitutional monarch, if he'd really had remained as autocratic as he'd been before the defeat at the hands of the Japanese, then maybe there wouldn't have been a world war. There's an engaging irony. Well, maybe. I mean, I think the trouble is of course, that there are very few genuinely autocratic monarchs. When you're surrounded by an elite who all think one thing,

and are telling you, "You must do this, Your Majesty. You must do this." It's very hard to say no. And actually what happens is they have the order ready to go to the telegraph office. He put his foot down and said, "No, Nicholas." They didn't send the order to the telegraph office, but in secret, his general staff carried on making preparations all that night. And they just think, "We'll twist his arm later on and persuade him." So that's what's been happening in St. Petersburg. Now, meanwhile, in Berlin,

Again, some of the Kaiser's ministers, like Erik von Falkenhayn, are saying, we must move now to a thing called a state of imminent war. They proclaim that war is very likely and we have to take measures. And the Chancellor, Bethlehem Holweg, no, it's much too much of an escalation. We need to gain time for further talks. And of course, the Kaiser is still going on about his schemes. So he still says, you know, I don't know why you rejected...

My plan for a podcast on Chatham High Street. Oh, he's not wrong. Stop in Belgrade. You know, it's a great idea. I've had a lot of grief from people who frankly don't know what they're talking about. And actually, I've got very good news. Because at this point, the Kaiser has been visited by his younger brother, Prince Heinrich of Russia. Oh, who's been yachting at cows. Who's been yachting at cows. We do love a member of the German royal family going on a yacht trip to cows, don't we? Well, Prince Heinrich has been yachting at cows.

He's just got back to Germany and he says, amazing news, brilliant news. I can't wait to tell you. I saw Cousin George, this is George V at Buckingham Palace, and Cousin George said to me, I don't know what we shall do. We have no quarrel with anyone. I hope we shall remain neutral. I and my government will do all that we can to stop this war. Is that what he sounded like?

He sort of turned into the Queen Mother there. That was just a poor choice of voice from me. Yeah, all right. But I think we should leave it in, Tom, because I want people to see we don't always hit the bullseye every time. But maybe he did sound like that. Maybe he did. Yeah. Let's say that he did. He was a bluff naval type, wasn't he? Yes. I don't know what we should do. We've had Churchill already. We don't want too much crossover. That's true. Anyway, the Kaiser hears this and the Kaiser agrees.

he's very impulsive and he says, oh, absolutely brilliant. The British definitely won't enter the war then if Cousin George doesn't like the thought of it. And actually, he meets his admirals that evening and they're talking about, you know, what we do about Britain, blah, blah, blah. He says, what, Britain?

Britain's not going to be part of the war. They will stay out. And then he says, I mean, it's almost touching. He says, I have the word of a king. That's good enough for me. Do you know, he's really going up in my estimation. And they're kind of, you can imagine them all sort of slightly frowning and shuffling and looking at the floor in embarrassment. But actually at that very meeting, they get shocking news from Russia that the Russian partial mobilization, the mobilization of the four Western districts has begun.

that the russian troops are now beginning to get onto the trains move to the railway stations move towards the frontier i mean just to be clear this means the storm clouds of war are really getting dark doesn't it they're incredibly dark tom the tinderbox has been lit i think it's fair to say if you light a tinderbox or strike a tinderbox whatever well the rain from the storm clouds of war might put the tinderbox out but it mustn't mix our metaphors it might but for

But for all of these politicians, these Germans, so for Bethlehem and Holweg, for the foreign minister, Yagov, for all these people, this is a genuinely traumatic moment. For weeks, they have been saying our deterrents will do the trick, the Russians, they'll be cross, but they won't follow through. And suddenly they think, oh God, everything we've said was rubbish. So a bit like if Putin suddenly was to use a battlefield nuclear weapon. Yeah. The assumption that this is a step that the Russians are

won't take. Yeah. And then they do. And then they do. And I think there's no doubt it is a genuine shock. Falkenhayn, the war minister, says, right, OK, this is it now. We have to mobilize. And actually still, the chancellor, Bethlehem Holweg, says, no, we must wait to the last possible minute. If there is going to be war, it's actually much better for the Russians to start it.

That will show the world that we are the injured party. And Falkenhayn gives in. He says, well, I don't want to, but it's not my job to tell you, the politicians, what to do. We think of the German system as so militaristic.

But still the civilians are in control, which is not what all historians, I think, say. But I think it is the case. So overnight, actually, so we're now moving towards Thursday, the 30th of July. Overnight, the Germans slightly are changing their tune. And they're actually sending a lot of very panicked telegrams to the Austrians saying...

Actually, that idea of the Kaiser's about stopping in bulk. Yeah, it's quite a good one. So it's like you. Actually, let's go to Chatham. Yeah, exactly it is, Tom. No doubt that will happen. I'm sure it will. Well, I promised you that it will happen. And it will happen. So they say to the Austrians, look, would you not consider it? And the Austrians, of course, say, whoa.

you can't do this to us now. For more than a month, you've told us, do what you like, we'll stand by you. We've made all our plans. We've gone public. We've got our army vaguely ready. I mean, it's the Austrian army, so they're not quite ready. They say, why should we back down now?

Franz Joseph says, what? Because the Russians are bullying you, we should give in. He says, if I stop now and agree to mediation, it will mean another rescue of Serbia by Russian intervention. And basically, the Austrians make a fair point. This would send a signal that we can never act again. If we stop now, having sent our ultimatum, having prepared all the

ground, all this. This will basically say to our neighbours, the world will never let us react, never let us defend ourselves, never let us respond. Absolutely not are we going to stop in Belgrade or abandon our military action. We've committed to this, we're going on with it. Now that said, the Austrians know at this point they're facing a terrible mess because they're actually behind the scenes in a massive panic about Russian intervention. The politicians have said to Conrad, actually, should we maybe turn the troops around and send them east?

to the frontier with Russia. And that means getting them on trains and things. Yeah. And he says, that's mad. You can't have half the trains going west, the others going east. They'll kind of cancel each other out. They'll meet in the middle. And there'll be gridlock on the railways. Unbelievably, he says, what we'll do is we'll send the entire army south. They'll get off the trains. Then we'll physically turn the trains around. And they'll get back on the train and go all the way back the other way. So that gives you a sense of the seriousness, Tom, and the efficiency of the Austrian war effort.

So that's what's going on in Austria. In Berlin, a terrible thing has happened. Very sad given the reading that we began with. The Kaiser has got another telegram from the Tsar and he's not pleased by what he reads. So the invitation to the Akeleon is cancelled. Yeah.

Do you know what? I don't want a massive spoiler. That Corfu holiday is never going to happen. It's never going to happen. Because Nicholas II says, yes, it's true, we are doing a bit of a partial mobilization, but I promise you it has nothing to do with the telegrams because actually we've been planning it for days. And of course, when the Kaiser hears that...

We've been planning it for days. He says, what? They've been planning behind my back all this time. And who does he blame for this? Well, who do you think he blames? A country of mean shopkeepers who sneer at him for his choice of footwear at yachting regattas. Yeah.

So that afternoon, that evening, Thursday, the 30th of July, he's just going around ranting. He's very upset. He feels so betrayed. Our enemies have planned a terrible war to destroy Germany. And he says, I'm going to read the whole quote. So the famous encirclement has become an accomplished fact. The net has suddenly been pulled over our head and sneeringly England has

reaps the most brilliant success of our stubbornly pursued, purely anti-German world policy against which we are powerless while she twists the noose of our political and economic destruction as we squirm isolated in the net. And then he just has this mad kind of shriek of rage. And he says, Edward VII is stronger after death than I am who is still alive. So actually, Uncle Eddie...

Who he's always hated because Huckle Edward despised Phil Helm and treated him like an absolute buffoon. Aberration. And sneered at him and put him down. Sent him terrible Christmas presents. Yeah. And he says, I knew it. Yeah.

Fine, he's been dead for however many years, but he plotted this. Uncle Edward, I knew it. And all of this stuff. I mean, it's actually tragic, I think, in some ways, that the Kaiser, who's such a ridiculous and indeed very objectionable man in some ways, but ultimately he's just this little boy, you know, who craved approval and acceptance. It's a bit like Nixon's post-resignation speech where he started crying. This is the Kaiser now. It's like it's all about him and his family and how he's been betrayed.

So now we're at a very serious point. We haven't mentioned the French at all recently because actually the French have been keeping their heads down. Have they still been on their ship? When does their ship get back? They've just got back. And so while they're on their ship, are they getting telegrams? Yes, they are in communication. And poor old Rene Viviani, who some people may recall gibbering and sweating. Yeah, I mean, he must be in an absolute blind funk by this point. He is in a funk.

He's just sort of, you know, staggering around the deck of the ship, wiping his brow and saying, please, not a war. And Poincaré, who treats him like dirt, treats him like Uncle Edward treats the Kaiser. Or you treat me. No, that's totally. And I come up with brilliant suggestions for podcast episodes. That's totally cruel, Tom. That's not actually the case.

Frank Kerry just keeps saying to him, you know nothing of foreign affairs. What do you know about it? We should stand firm. All of this kind of thing. So Frank Kerry gets back and he says to everybody, it's going to be no settlement, no deals. We stick by the Russians. Stand up. The Germans clearly want a war. Fine. Let them put themselves in the wrong. We'll start to make preparations, but very quietly and subtly. No full mobilization. Keep our troops back from the frontier. They play it very canonally, the French. Crucially, they say the key...

The key thing is, and I quote, this is from the Under Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Abel Ferry. He says, we must show to the English public and the English government that France, like Russia, will not be the first to fire. Make the Germans the bad guys because that will bring in Britain on our side. So that's the atmosphere in France. And then

the key moment, so Thursday the 30th of July, all that morning, the politicians in St. Petersburg have been pestering the Tsar. Change your mind. Change your mind. Go for the full mobilization. And actually, the war minister...

telephone Nicholas at his palace and Nicholas lost his temper on the phone and said, I will cut you off. I'm so determined not to do this. So they send Sergei Sazanov, the foreign minister, 3 p.m. that afternoon. He goes to the Peterhof Palace and he says, look, your majesty, there is no chance of avoiding war. This is where we are now.

The Germans clearly are gagging for a fight. They can't wait to get started with us, which of course, I mean, he genuinely believes, I think. We cannot delay any longer, please.

And at first, I mean, it's so tragic when you think what's going to happen to almost all of these people. At first, Nicholas says, no, I quote, he hates the idea of sending thousands and thousands of men to their deaths. I don't want to do this. And Sazanov says, please, your majesty, we have to do it or we will be smashed. And so he wears him down. And at four o'clock, Sazanov telephones the army chief of staff. He's a guy called General Yanushkevich. And he says, it's done. We've got the order.

Transmute the order. And by the way, when this call is over, smash the telephone so the Tsar can't change his mind. And there's an amazing description. The central telegraph office in St. Petersburg, there are rows and rows of telegraph operators sitting there quietly waiting. And then at just after four o'clock that afternoon, the general Yanushkevich walks in with the order and he hands it to the chief operator.

And nobody says anything. There's an atmosphere of deathly calm. And then a few seconds later, you hear the sound of clicking and tapping as the machines start to send out the order all across the Russian Empire.

My goodness. So we're almost there. So we've got one last episode to go. If you can't wait for it, you can hear it right now by joining the Restless History Club at therestlesshistory.com. But either way, the abyss is yawning wide open now. And in the final episode, everyone will tumble into it. So on that cheery note, goodbye. Goodbye. One for sorrow, two for joy, three for girl, four for a boy.

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