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Hey everybody, it's on the Charlie Kirk show. Rich Barris as we go through the latest polling news. Are the polls too good to be true? Are they oversampling Trump supporters? And Caitlin Sinclair, Turning Point Action spokesperson, goes through our latest ballot chasing training. Get involved with Turning Point USA at tpusa.com. That is tpusa.com. Become a member today.
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Okay, Rich Barris joins us now. People's pundit daily and also big data polls. Rich, welcome to the program. Rich, I was trained in the school of Rush Limbaugh, the great Rush Limbaugh, who told us not to trust the polls. Rich, am I off base if I think that some of these polls might be oversampling Republicans to make us look like... I mean, when I see a poll, Rich...
That has Donald Trump up 15 in Arizona. I'm sorry. There is something foul afoot here. Rich Barris.
This is what I would tell people. And I would, I would warn people. There are a lot of low prop and no prop, low propensity and no propensity voters who are telling us, and I can only speak for us who are telling us that they are absolutely going to vote Charlene. And the danger there is that they don't vote. These voters, typically those, that group of voters tend to be less credentialed, right? So we're talking about working class people and
And that used to once upon a time really benefit Democrats. This is the first cycle, the first year where we've really seen a sea change where that is benefiting Republicans in general, but really Donald Trump. If those people don't vote, Charlie, then yes, the polls will overstate Trump's support. However.
I remember in 2016, not believing some of these people. And in Ohio, our final poll was Trump plus three. He went on to romp it. When I went back and looked at it, all of those, you know, coming from the woodwork, Ohio Valley voters,
Ohio River Valley voters were people who had basically given up. Some of them hadn't voted since Ross Perot. Most pollsters would screen them out. They have no vote history. Self-reported likelihood to vote is not very reliable. So, you know, it's understandable that they would. So there is a trick. Look,
Don't get complacent. You know, be optimistic, but don't be complacent because of the polls. Fifteen points in Arizona is a little nuts. OK, OK. So we agree. I mean, this is a company, 1983 Labs. I don't know who they are. I don't know if they're accurate. I don't know their track record either. But I just want to read this because I want people to be very careful. The takeaway is do the work, do the work. OK, they say Trump up four in Michigan. OK, I could maybe see that.
Pennsylvania Trump up five. Okay, maybe. Then these come out yesterday. Donald Trump up 15 in Arizona. I'm sorry. That is a suppression poll. That's a suppression poll as Rush would teach us in the opposite direction.
Where, again, Rich, I'm a little bit I know that you're so into the data here, so you could feel free to push back. I think that polling in the mainstream industry is done with an intent to try to have a Democrat win. So if they can't configure the data to make it seem that Joe Biden is up 10, we'll make it seem as if, oh, I don't need to vote. And Trump is up 15.
I would believe that as much as I would believe a Biden plus 17 in Wisconsin from the ABC News, Washington Post poll in 2020. That was not going to happen. And here's it. It's possible, though, that it was just honest. And here's why. I didn't look at the poll and how they were, you know, how they sourced it or what data collection mode they used. But in states like Arizona and Nevada, there are certain data collection modes where you're going to reach Hispanics that are actually more Republican than the voting electorate.
You have to be really careful if you haven't been doing it for years. And I know there's like a new polling firm popping up every week, Charlie, right? Doesn't it seem like that? I know. It's like where have the where were these people when we made mistakes with Sharon Engel against the former majority leader? Right. Sharon Engel was up by five for sure in a state like Nevada.
Where were these pollsters where people overstated Jeff Flake and then he squeezed it out by under three points? So if you haven't been around long enough to know the groups that constantly give us problems, constantly difficult to poll, then I'm really skeptical of your ability to just pop in and do it now. It's like, forget it. I agree. Let's look at the averages, though, because averages are blending of multiple disciplines, multiple companies, and there are gold standard. Remember, the Iowa one was a gold standard.
that showed Trump up 18 in Iowa. That one I can see. And that one was before the debate. So, Rich, how bad is it right now for Joe Biden? What is and by the way, I want you to also talk about the internal data that was leaked by Puck News last week. Yeah, it's bad. We're going to we're we just did a poll yesterday.
It's really bad. I'm going to tell you, we're not the pollster that comes out. We had one Trump plus six over the last 12 months nationally. I thought it was crazy. And then a whole bunch of other people, a bunch of other polling firms from CNN and even also found similar margins. So because there's like a collapsing of Joe Biden support, you know, Charlie, like two months ago, there was a receding of an appetite for a third party.
And RFK was starting to look like Gary Johnson and everything was just kind of washing away and the race was tightening a little bit, but Trump still had a lead. After this debate,
In our polling, Trump was already at or above 50, like right there. You know, he went up a little. Biden fell and it looks like some of the his support is going back to third party. So it's it's horrible. It's it's the polling is as bad as I have ever seen it for Joe Biden. And ironically, his approval rating in our polling hasn't really budged. You know, it's been like 38 to 42 percent. And that's the that's the world we live in when we
We've never had him down in the low 30s like some some other polls. I just don't think that's even possible in today's America. We're too partisan. But the people who are willing to vote for him is, you know, is cratering by the day. They're like, you know what? I like him. And some some people even says I feel somewhat bad for him, but I can't vote for him. Sorry to interject here, Rich. Here's from Mark Caputo, who is a reporter with The Bulwark.
Mark, I'm a smart guy, but bulwark is a waste of rations. What they say is this, though, is that one Democratic insider tells me that the members, this Democrat members were just brief. This is breaking on internal polling that shows House Democrats could lose as many as 20 seats. Quote, we were supposed to win the House. Rich, where is that point of no return where all of a sudden Biden sinks the down ballot?
Yeah, I think we're getting there now. Republicans have been trailing Trump not only in his margin over Biden. So what do I mean? If Trump has a three-point lead on Biden, Republicans have, even if they're ahead, have a smaller lead. But often, and for most of the year, we had Trump ahead, but Republicans down. This is now the second month in a row where we have Republicans up. They're still lower on vote share than he is. They're trailing by about four and a half points. Trump's
Trump's vote share is higher, but it is now getting to the point where it is going to hurt down ballot. We don't live in the 1980 or 84 electorate anymore, you know, Charlie, where Reagan could take 20% of the Democratic vote at the presidential level and romp Jimmy Carter, but yet Democrats maintain down ballot. We're a much more partisan country. So, and by the way, I think their worst nightmare
Is that the people I started to talk about in the beginning of this segment, they do come out and vote. And this this vote is overwhelmingly for Trump. They don't know that much about down ballot politics, you know, and a group like this may not be.
Huge, but it's significant. And if they come in and they're voting for Trump to vote for Trump and they just check the box for the next star down ballot, that could wipe Democrats out. So, you know, I mean, we have this thing now about a two, three point lead for Republicans nationally in the generic ballot. There's a lot of undecideds when those people decide it could be a 20, 25 seat hit.
for Democrats. That's fair. Again, I here's my belief and I'm one of the few people I actually think that because we are so partisan that this race will actually generally and directionally tighten more than me to think. Is that fair? I hope that's not the case. I but I do. And I don't know. You know, it's like I keep expecting it every month we go into the field, Charlie. I'm like, this is the month when Trump's black vote chair is going to fall a little.
This is the month where Hispanics are going to go back to being almost 60-40 and that would be reasonable or even 65-35 and that would be normal. But it hasn't happened as we get month to month. I'm wondering if
Because, you know, better than most how solid the Democratic turnout machine is. Oh, it's the best. If people they overperform polling by four to five points. It's great. And I mean, they honestly could, though, get to a point where they can't convince their voters to vote for this guy. But also, if one out of three of their voters are going to RFK, then their ballot chasing, it's all messed up. They're using manpower to just to basically shred their own ballots.
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Call 972-PATRIOT. That is 972-PATRIOT. Go to patriotmobile.com slash charlie and join me and make the switch today. That is patriotmobile.com slash charlie. Patriotmobile.com slash charlie. Rich, you have some Hispanic data to share with us. Tell us about it.
We're actually to the point where people are lying about who they voted for in 2020. And most of them, or I would say a significant number of them are actually black voters who are now going to vote for Trump. And Hispanic voters are, are, I don't want to say the most honest. I'm just saying they're the most willing to say who they really did vote for. They're a candid people. They're very,
very candid people. And they're like, yeah, I screwed up. I voted for Joe Biden. Right. So the margin that we have for the 2020 vote is almost identical to what the 2020 vote was. And now it's unbelievable, Charlie, how much it shifted when you, you know, when you lean them, the racist tide, well, before you lean them, the racist tide in the low forties with Hispanics, when you lean them, Biden pulls ahead because he does a
win the leaners among Hispanics. But we're talking about a six point margin here, you know, with Hispanics. I mean, this is New Mexico territory. Well, so let's let's build that out. What how did Biden do with Hispanics in 2020? Yeah. So Trump won about 37 percent of the Hispanic vote nationally in 2020. And the reason why and
It will way better. And, you know, he improves. He went in the low thirties and 16 that he went and, you know, got a little bit closer to 40 this time around. He's already above that. He's in the forties before you lean people. And then when you lean people, it looks like almost what George Bush claimed to get a little bit better. What does that mean for the state of Nevada and Arizona? What, what, if that, if Donald Trump gets 42%, if he gets 42% of the Hispanic vote, what does that mean? Nevada and Arizona are gone. Uh,
I mean, gone for Joe Biden. The Sunbelt isn't, you know, those battleground Sunbelt states are in deep, deep trouble for Joe Biden. They're gone. I mean, they're not in deep trouble. New Mexico at that point is closed, Charlie. And I'll just say this. In 16 and 20, Trump did better with Hispanics in New Mexico than he did nationally. So he outperformed his national vote total. The white vote was split in 2020. Biden's entire margin almost in the state of New Mexico in 2020 was 16.
from the Hispanic vote. So if past this prologue and Trump does better again in New Mexico than he does among Hispanics nationwide, which by the way, that's same is true in Arizona and Nevada. If that happens again, New Mexico is a nail biter. It's a 50-50 coin toss at this
I got to tell you, the primary voting in both Nevada and in Arizona, but really in Arizona specifically, tells me that this is very real. Trump did in Arizona and the primary folks, some of Trump's best areas were in Hispanic neighborhoods. In Maricopa, you can vote anywhere. There's no specific assigned precinct. That's right. Yeah.
Yep, it's voting centers. But we know by neighborhoods, because people tend not to travel that far, we know by neighborhoods how Trump was doing in certain areas. And in the Hispanic areas were his strongest, some of his strongest areas in Maricopa County and the weakest for Biden. So Biden would do better like 90% in white neighborhoods, whereas he was only pulling 78, 80% in Hispanic neighborhoods. Flip side of that.
Trump was getting 90 percent in Hispanic neighborhoods and he was getting, well, you know, I don't have to tell you, 78, you know, ballpark and some of the white, more educated, even Republican areas. So that's what eventually pulled him up later on from the initial early vote that came in. So there's at least evidence that this is this is real. Last question. Which of the three blue wall states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, should Donald Trump focus on the most and is his best current path forward?
to get to 270. Pennsylvania looks so good for him. It's the Keystone State, appropriately named. Wisconsin, it always polls more Democratic than it votes, or it has in the past. I'm not saying it's going to happen again. It's just the case. I feel like if you're going to win Pennsylvania, Charlie, it's over.
It's over. So you have a lot of electoral votes there, but also the demographics are a little bit more diverse than say Iowa or Wisconsin, which is – Wisconsin looks more like Iowa to me than it does Pennsylvania, frankly. So I mean Pennsylvania is the linchpin. He can win without it, and in some of the polling we've done, Michigan actually looks stronger for him in some of the polling. But I feel like if he takes Pennsylvania –
This race is over. So the last thing is, if you were advising Joe Biden non sarcastically, what would you say for him to do to try to tighten this? He's got to drop the lawfare. He's got to look like he's more fair. I can't tell you how many people we hear. This is a senile old man who's trying to put his opponent in prison because his opponent was a better president. I think that's the end of story. I think that's it. Not only is he unpopular, but he's also senile and then he's hyper aggressive.
Yeah, that's what it looks like. The American people put that together in a formula. They do. And they don't like those ingredients. They say, OK, this guy's unpopular. He's not doing a good job. I can't afford groceries. And yeah, I don't like Trump, but why don't you just beat him if you don't like him? That's like a very, that's a very, it is a bad recipe and normal everyday Americans are repulsed by it. And they should be. Rich, great work. Thank you so much. Big data polls. Check it out. All the best, Charlie. Great job. That was terrific. Thank you.
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Joining us now is the new spokesperson for Turning Point Action. This is an introduction to our audience. She'll be coming on a lot and doing some frontline reporting for us. It is Caitlin Sinclair. Caitlin, welcome to the program. And Caitlin, introduce yourself to our audience.
Yeah, Charlie, thanks for having me. I'm so excited to be on board. I've been a born and raised New Yorker for my whole life, so excited to also be spending some time in Arizona. Yeah, so tell us about your story and your background. And also, you've made some news recently about some club in New York.
That's right. So a little bit of my background, as I just mentioned, I'm a fifth generation New Yorker, born and raised. And I was with One American News as a reporter for the past five years. I actually started my career at CNN, Charlie. I was an intern there. Oh, that's bad news.
It was during the 2016 election where everything changed, right? I thought I was going to become a health and wellness reporter. I really believed in journalism. I fell in love with storytelling. And then everything changed back then. So, yeah.
Everything became political. Everything became divisive. And I found myself at the forefront of politics and being thrown into it at such a young age. I've really learned a lot. And I've gotten to do incredible interviews, interviewing presidents, congresspeople, working at the United Nations as, again, such a young age. So it really definitely got my feet wet at a time where this country was going through a lot.
Now, the news I just made, that was a social club in New York that I belong to, and I was one of their most frequent members. And it was because of a tongue-in-cheek catchphrase, Charlie, that I posted on Father's Day that said, you are here because your dad is not queer. Again, a catchphrase. It was on my personal social media page. And what happened to me, Charlie, was really— Don't worry. It's a safe place to say that here. So you're good. Okay.
And what happened to me was really just a microcosm of what's happening across the country. So the club called me and said, because of this post, because it was Pride Month, it does not align with their LGBTQ, LMNOP, plus, plus, plus views at the club. And for that reason, they were terminating my membership and I am no longer welcome back. Now,
Now, again, this was a microcosm of what's happening across the country. And when this initially happened to me, I took a step back. I said I was going to digest all of this. There were some articles being written saying I wanted to sue. And it's not about me. And this is not about the club. But I think, Charlie, this is about the larger message here, which is that Americans, New Yorkers especially, and I could speak to this firsthand from doing interviews and Man on the Streets for the past, even just the past two and a half years, seeing this shift,
They feel like they don't have a voice. They feel like there is this two-tiered system of justice. And I can tell you at this point, I've received thousands of messages from people across this country echoing this sentiment, and they're fed up. They're fed up with the double standard for conservatives versus the other side. And I said this in my messaging, at this
particular social club. There are members that have attended pro-Hamas rallies. There are members that have posted things on their personal social media pages about not supporting Donald Trump, wanting him to go to prison, actually wishing death on him. There are members of that community that have posted on their social media pages that there's more than two genders.
Why is there a double standard? And those messages meant so much to me from conservatives and Christians across this country, really encouraging me, saying thank you so much for being a voice, for being a young voice, for not backing down, and for having the courage to do this in very liberal blue New York City. And I mentioned some of the man on the street interviews I've done
And I've noticed a shift, Charlie, and especially in the past two years where New Yorkers are fed up. They used to maybe whisper they supported Donald Trump. I would throw a microphone in some faces saying, who are we voting for? And they wouldn't want to say Donald Trump on camera. Maybe that was an off-the-camera, off-the-record conversation. But now look at what we just witnessed in the Bronx.
in the Bronx and New York City, which is 90% of Democrats that live there. And look at these crowds that are now turning up for Donald Trump. So the tide is shifting. And those messages that I received from Americans across the country, again, saying that this is a doubled standard. We cannot back down. We cannot be ashamed of our Christian or conservative values.
And that's again, it's not about me. It's not about the social club. It's about Americans. And so now you're with us at Turning Point Action and you are seeing the important grassroots work that we are doing to register voters and to chase ballots. People can check it out at TP Action dot com. Tell us about why you decided to join the team and what you've been seeing on the ground.
Yeah, absolutely. Well, you know, I used to say that the group I belong to, the millennial generation and then the Gen Zers were the most apathetic groups out there. And then I started to notice my contemporaries and my peers and attending some of the turning point events. That's not the case anymore. This is these are generations that are fired up. They are fed up. They realize they've been lied to. They've been stolen from. They've been robbed of their time during the pandemic.
and they want their country back. So I want to be a part of that movement. I want to have a voice. I want to encourage my peers to stand up, and in the story that we were just talking about. So-
I'm really excited to be on board. I'm super excited about this new initiative we're launching with the Gen Z Coalition because, Charlie, you and I both know this. This is a generation that feels so disenfranchised. It's all about the loss of connectivity, of belonging somewhere, and that's why you're seeing so many of these college students so lost right now. So many of these college students...
standing at these pro-Hamas and pro-Palestine protests and holding signs that say, from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free. And again, personal experience, I've interviewed some of these young folks. They don't even know what their signs mean. They don't even know what they're standing for, but they are longing to belong somewhere. And they're longing for America first policies that they are. You see a lack of faith in this country right now, a lack of the family unit,
a lack of pride and patriotism. So what does that all cause, right? Well, I've done my research on this because I've been very passionate about this. Charlie, did you know that 76% of baby boomers were having family dinners every single night? Now that number has gone down to 46% for the millennials and a whopping 38% for Gen Zers. So what are the effects of that, right? The family dinner used to be one of the most...
you know, the best time to have conversation. It's where grace was said. It's where parents could actually engage and dispense advice to their kids. Now we have an increase in fatherless households. We have a lack of the family unit.
We've replaced everything with, to use Korean Jean-Pierre's expression there, with cheap fakes, right? We've replaced in this country real food with junk food. We've replaced real relationships with casual sex. We've replaced faith in God with social media and celebrities. And I think my generation, the generation that you and I belong to, and the one that's coming up behind us, they want to change that. They want to make a difference. So I'm so excited.
and excited to be in a room and to be on a team that really supports this mission and wants to make a difference. Caitlin, how can people follow you on social media here? Yes, you can follow me just at Caitlin Sinclair. And then on Twitter, Charlie, it's just CSinclairTV. And I will be in Milwaukee with the team next week. So you can come find me in person.
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So, Caitlin, tell us, you have been to our trainings firsthand in Waukesha, Wisconsin, for our ballot chasers. Tell our audience the significance, the importance of what you learned.
Absolutely. Well, I learned a long time ago, actually, that local is the way to make a difference. And I was so happy that that sentiment was echoed at these training camps. And just to be in that room, these people want to save our country. And they were learning the significance of starting locally, right? You and I have so many people reaching out to us. I'm sure you get hundreds of messages a week, if not in a day, people asking how they can get involved.
how they can be a part of this movement. And I think the answer a lot of times is start locally, right? Own your streets is a favorite expression at TPA. And I love that message. Get to know your neighbor, have a barbecue, have a pool party, host a movie night, have these conversations, right? So I learned a lot on how to do that. Just being in a room full of patriots that want to take this country back and that are willing to put in the work.
We see a lot of these Twitter wars happening every single day, right? People commenting, going back and forth, a bunch of semantics. Everyone wants to have a take on TikTok and on social media.
And I love the messaging from TPA and from our friend Tyler there. You can't be involved in a Twitter war unless you're actually door knocking, unless you're actually ballot chasing. And then you can have the Twitter war, right? So you can't comment, don't complain unless you're actually out there doing the work. So that really resonated with me.
And that's what this is all about, right? Grassroots organization, recruiting activists, registering voters, and then chasing those ballots because we cannot win elections. And Charlie, I love the way you put it also. We need to ignore the polls. We need to ignore the pundits because that's what they want us to do. They want us to be paying attention and being so caught up with
all of the minutiae. We need to get to work. So ignore the media, ignore the polls, ignore what you're hearing and get to work. And I'm so, again, excited for this new initiative with the Gen Z Coalition because young people right now, well, we are fired up. Tell us about the Gen Z Coalition. How can people get involved? And tell us about that announcement. Yeah, well, we just announced this week and you can just go to turningpoint.com. You can also go to the TP Action app.
Get involved. Again, we are also hiring full-time in Arizona and Wisconsin, but you can get involved in any state. There's postcards, there's phone calls, attending events, again, registering voters, recruiting activists, and chasing ballots. Anyone can be involved. Anyone can do this. Specifically, the Gen Z Coalition.
It's about engaging these young people, right? Charlie, you and I talked about before the break how disenfranchised and alone this young generation feels. And they're maybe turning to social media or they're maybe getting involved in things that they shouldn't be. And they're maybe not understanding what this country was founded on. And they're getting involved in messaging at this college level and some of these colleges that are indoctrinating young people. And they're becoming lost.
So having those conversations and having this generation be a part of something that involves faith and involves believing and love of country once again, I think there's nothing more beautiful and more timely than that. So that's what this coalition is all about. And then doing the grassroots. So separate from the college campuses and what you guys are focused on it.
TPUSA, where we focus on grassroots activization with this young generation, again, in your neighborhoods, owning your street, in your community, talking to your friends, even if it's just one person a day, have the conversation and we can get a lot done. Caitlin, great to have you. And people could check out coalitions.com. That's right. We own the URL coalitions.com. Caitlin, thank you so much.
Thanks, Charlie. All right. Email us freedom at charliekirk.com. By the way, the coalitions we have you can join are pretty amazing. It is coalitions.com. You can join our Moms Coalition. You can join our Latinos Coalition, our Black Americans Coalition, our Farmer and Ranchers Coalition, our Educators Coalition, our Faith Coalition, our Healthcare Workers Coalition, or our Gen Z Coalition. All of these are micro...
communities that exist to be able to identify low propensity voters. This is turning point citizens. You could really call it that.
It's really great. It's coalitions.com. That's right. We own coalitions.com and it directs you to what coalition you want to be part of. And we now have the Gen Z coalition and we are going to be doing this on college campuses, not across the country in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, in particular, and a little bit of Georgia. We are soon going to announce my upcoming campus tour, my upcoming campus tour, which
will be the most ambitious I've ever done, the most campuses I have ever visited this fall. I think I'm going to 21 campuses in 35 days. In addition to that, giving a speech almost every day, still going to be doing our three-hour radio show every single day. And so our coalitions are really growing. Join us right now at coalitions.com. That is coalitions.com. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com. Thanks so much for listening and God bless.
For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to charliekirk.com.
