Ice & Fire Picks + Listener League Time! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/1 01:05:08

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Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Welcome to August. Yes. It hits different. It hits different. Yeah. It really, like... Like a linebacker. I am so jacked up for this month of August. There are...

Amazing things in store. Fantasy is back. Preseason will be here. Training camp's ongoing. And August just hits different. I look at the show dog. I'm like, we're here. It's time. Hall of Fame game. Well. Third stringers going at it. Yeah. And that's... Is that tonight? Yeah. Yeah. And for everyone out there,

I just couldn't do it. You know what's funny? I couldn't do it. That also hits different. Like, there's not a lot of hard hits. Well, I'm saying I could not. I couldn't. It's football time for the Hall of Fame game. I just couldn't do it. Yeah, I told you you could. I mean, I gave you permission, but you're the kind of – you're the judge. It's very vibe heavy. And the vibe isn't – now, if Caleb Williams was playing tonight – Then heck yes, we would have done it. Yes, yes.

But not yet. No. You've got to preserve the power. Very soon. Welcome in, one and all. Five days a week, the fantasy footballers are with you. Five days a week. And if you are a supporter of the show, you even get a sixth episode. If you like Dynasty, you get a seventh episode. If you like DFS and betting, you get an eighth episode. If you like comedy, you get a ninth episode. Man, we do a lot of shows. I'm proud of us.

But five days a week, we're excited to be with you. The journey begins towards a fantasy championship. This show has always been about you, about your team, your league context, giving you actionable information, stat-based, stat-backed information to help you make judgment calls for your team heading into the year. And that's what we're all about. This is our 10th season of this show.

which is wild. And so it has been a lot of fun. Super thankful for the Foot Clan that have come along for the ride and that are back for another season. We love what we do. I had somebody, I was talking on Twitter, and we're making some improvements and some changes to our Foot Clan membership, and those are coming extraordinarily now. Yes, they're basically coming extraordinarily now. They're basically extraordinarily now.

And I thought I was bailing you out with the very soon. And you're like, yeah, right now. But that wasn't the headline. The headline was I went out there and I like I like posted some teaser tweets about how we're making upgrades and improvements. And we've wanted to kind of consolidate the premium things that we provide into into one account. So we're working through that. But somebody said, are you are you going to be giving up?

like doing shows anytime soon not bloody likely that was a question and i was like no no no of course not yeah going into year 10 it's it's it's wild it's crazy but i i mean i genuinely i'm so confident that this is actually going to be our best year ever we have some new tools some new resources things that we have been working on for years they're going to roll out and um you know hopefully that

Pays off in championships. That's in the end what it's about. Having fun. And having fun means making fun of your friends and winning. Yeah, yeah. That is the fundamental truth. And we're excited for the year. Excited for today's episode. We have ice and fire on today's show, which means we have the greatest drop that Mike has ever put together. That's the way to kick off August. Also, Mike, how does it feel to know that your best work is just purely original? Derivative?

Look, they did really good work. Sometimes other people in the world do things that are fantastic, and you must pay an homage to them. So we have news to talk about. The Ultimate Draft Kit is available right now, ultimatedraftkit.com.

2024 UDK, Jason. Yeah, it's... What are you chuckling about? I'm chuckling because he said ultimate. Okay. I thought I heard it. And I was letting that slide. I was also trying to read something so I couldn't confirm. Let the record show I finally let one slide, but it still couldn't get through the ultimate. It didn't get through the smirk I saw out of the corner of my eye, but yeah. You owe me about 600 of those. Right. So if you want the ultimate...

Draft Kit, which we're going to now have to get a new domain, ultibitdraftkit.com. You're going to get five months of pronunciation mistakes until I get my tooth repaired fully. That makes sense. I hope to dunk on you many, many, many times. Yeah, it's coming. The ultimate. Get in right now. What else is going on? Oh, Mike, we need a trumpet. Al, can we trumpet something up here?

Al. That was it. Oh, that wasn't it. That wasn't me. I mean, it's me, but I totally thought it was you. Yeah, all right. That one I knew wasn't you. But Mike, let's talk about something very exciting. August 1st, what do you got for us? Everyone, pull your car over. Pay attention because this information is shared one time and one time only.

Listener League submissions for the fantasy footballers. It's officially open. And what does that mean? The Listener League, it's a 14-team league that the three of us play in. And you can win a spot into that league. Play with us throughout the season. Here's how you get in.

Your submission, should you have been working on it or you're doing it right now, it will be sent to listenerleagueatfantasyfootballers.com. Listenerleagueatfantasyfootballers.com. And what do we want? We don't want your trophy pictures. I don't want, oh, you're too scared to play with me because I'm so good at fantasy football. No.

Like, that's not what this league is about. This league is about really fun people, engaged listeners, people that love the show, that want to be in the league with us. It's about a great league. And having a really good time along the way. So, look, that might be a short video that you made, something funny that you have made. Like, my biggest... I like the word personality. Personality, yeah, exactly. Show us who you are. The biggest pieces of advice are...

The trophy case, it doesn't matter. And don't send in a wall of text. If it's just a wall of text, it's going to be difficult to make through the filter. It's TLDR. Yeah, yeah. And if it is a wall of text, throw it into Chad's EPT and say, turn this into 10 words. We gave you the email address. No, you cannot submit late. No, you can't send it to our support staff and overwhelm them with your Listener League requests.

ListenerLeagueAtFantasyFootballers.com. That is it. Yep. That is the final time I will mention it.

it and we just want to feel uh the personality coming through whatever your entry is as creative as you want to be we're always it's always a fun time of year to go through those entries we do read and check them all it is yes and it's an important league to us you know there's there's um we try to keep our leagues to a minimum uh we sometimes we're in too many and we don't care about all of them but we actually really care about the listener league i mean brooks

was found in the Listener League. The biggest loser on the show was part of the Listener League. This becomes part of our year, part of our season, and we can't wait to have a handful of you with us. And if you win it, you come back. That's true. Yeah. I mean, I've won it twice. I'm still here. Yeah, Jason's been in the Listener League for quite some time. Brooks is concerned that the way that you presented

meeting him in the Listener League and then the biggest loser, it sounded like he was the biggest loser. Oh, no, no, no, no. I don't want anyone to think Brooks is that big of a loser. He did lose. The way that Brian Ketron is. Oh, yeah, yeah. But Brian Ketron is, I mean, what a loser. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. ♪

Well, yeah, Bears. The Bears have signed DJ more to a four-year $110 million extension, which he had two years left on his contract. That's how you get out ahead of it, man. It is the largest deal in Bears history.

And I think it's a brilliant deal. You know you need him to be a part of the future. You have, you know, a rookie under contract at quarterback. Go ahead and just sign this. Make sure this is a done deal going forward. Absolutely a brilliant move. And CeeDee Lamb just sits there and goes, oh, wait, wait, wait, wait, agent, hold up.

Okay, now go back to him. Over and over and over. Still waiting on C.D. Lamb's contract, which I think will come. Any minute. It seems like it's close. I mean, we record this show a day early. It could be done by the time we're talking. We could sound so stupid right now. Well, no, not anymore. You just... Yeah, we're covering our butts. Yeah, I know. That's why I did that.

But Brandon Ayuk, as of this recording, still does not have a new home or a contract. He's got high fives, though. Yeah, there was a video. I mean, this is news stuff. This is hype train. A video of Brandon Ayuk walking up to the coach and the general manager and

Some dap was shared between the three of them, and we're trying to analyze what's going on in this footage. Is this a congratulations, you got a deal? Is this a, hey, man, thank you so much for working through this. Enjoy your new location. Yeah, we don't know. We don't know. It could be so many things. The accounts out there, the...

that have hit on some rumors are saying there's a big trade coming. So we're standing by, but something big is about to happen. Big wide receivers that need some answers, all of them on Mike's Dynasty team. Steelers rookie wide receiver Roman Wilson went down in practice, carted off. It was a major concern yesterday.

Right now it's week to week and considered to be okay for the start of the season. So that's overall good news. It's fantastic, but you have to keep in mind that with a rookie, when you miss this specific stretch of time, that means his career is going to get off to a slower start. He's going to be a less impact player. He's like pretty much to me,

If he's going to miss the next several weeks, he was a late round, like a last round target. He's not anymore. There's enough rookie wide receivers I could target that I'm not going to grab the injured guy. Deeper or dynasty leagues, you're looking at other options outside of Roman Wilson in that offense if you believe they're going to be better with –

Russell Wilson, Justin Fields. You're looking at what Van Jefferson is there and Calvin Austin is there. I would rather take a shot at Calvin Austin. And Calvin Austin's been running ahead of Roman Wilson anyway. Yeah, Calvin Austin's got crazy speed, has dealt with injuries, but he makes a little bit more sense with the moon ball from Russell Wilson. Honestly, I think the big beneficiary here, the guy that I've been rising on more and more, I don't think it's who you're going to say. He thinks you're going to say Pickens. No. I think the Muth. Yeah, baby.

We are getting loose in 24. Which, if you're new to the show, that is Pat Friermuth, tight end for the Steelers. Friertooth. That's you. Yeah, Pat Friermuth, I really do think it's going to be a post-hype bounce-back season for him. Not like he's going to be one of these top three or four tight ends, but I think he'll be a top eight tight end. He's not drafted that way.

Okay. Yeah, I can get in on that. Also, I apologize for my short-term ranking of Pat Fryermuth as the number two tight end overall. That did happen momentarily this morning. Jason made a bit of a typo in his rankings. I wanted to give him 99 targets, but I gave him 99 receptions. Oh, that'd be a good year. Much better for fantasy. So all it takes is 100 catches from him to bump him up? Yeah. Okay.

Any other news breaking from Deucer's Alley over there? We do have a full... Hey, Matt's back. We call it a full alley. Off the potty. Proud of you. How you doing, Matt? You doing all right? Yeah, feeling good. Feeling good. All right. Got my fire out early. That's good. Well, what we know about you is if you're not feeling good, you will abandon the show. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

And that's why you hire cleaners, too. All right. That was today's News and Notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. We will take a break and then it is time for some ice and fire. This episode is brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV.

We'll be right back.

all of your players with stats and fantasy views right alongside the action. It's a fantasy football must-have. Sign up now at youtube.com slash fantasyfootballers. Device and content restrictions apply. Local and national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games. Exclude digital games only.

This episode is brought to you by BetterHelp. Football season is starting up and you know things are going to get hectic. Do not forget to take care of yourself. We're talking like the easy stuff, right? Get enough sleep,

Brush those teeth. Take care of your hygiene. And maybe there's some stuff that we could all do a little bit better, you know, eat better, exercise just a little bit more, really start to take care of that body. But don't forget to take care of your mental health. A little you time can make a world of difference, especially when life gets busy. And if you're not sure where to start when it comes to self-care, I recommend therapy. It's a great option. Talk therapy is great.

It's fantastic for helping you. Sometimes things are too big. Problems at work, issues at home, they mount and it's who can you talk to? Well, there's professionals that you can talk to that really help you get through these tough times. I cannot recommend talk therapy enough and BetterHelp is a great option for those who are just starting out.

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All right. Without further ado, we are going to jump into one of our favorite segments leading into the season. This is a – it's kind of like a – it's a little bit like a pre-My Guy opportunity for us. Like we get to – Sure. To bring a name up that maybe we're not going to roll into My Guys, but we really like. So let's jump in. ♪♪♪ Ice and fire. ♪♪♪

All right, we have each selected an ice and fire player for today's show. There is a lot of hype, right? The hype train has been active, and there are players that people have excitement for that maybe we are a little bit on the opposite side of that story. We're going to keep it a mystery, so I want one of you guys to introduce a name and then reveal whether they are an ice or fire player who would like to begin.

I'll start it off. I will start it off with last year's wide receiver 10, who is going to an up-and-coming offense, is being drafted on sleeper right now as the wide receiver 17 in the third round. So this is an important fantasy player, a great, awesome player for the last many, many years. I'm talking about Stephon Diggs, baby, a superstar player.

But y'all know where this is going. This is not my fire pick. Stephon Diggs this year, he's ice. His stat line last year was pretty good on the season. 160 targets, 107 receptions, 1,100 yards, eight touchdowns, finishes the wide receiver 10. But I think the Bills knew something. They were the ones with him in the building. They were the ones who went away from him and started winning ballgames.

And, you know, it's one of those things when you start to see a decline with a player, it hardly ever reverses course at this age. If there is a decline, I can't, when I say hardly ever, that's hedging something I can't ever remember. Someone that is losing a step post 30 years old and they're

And then it's like, oh, he's back, baby. You've got yards per outrun, average depth of target, his contested catch rate, right? That's not like a, well, how was he utilized? Maybe his targets weren't as valuable. Just like when he was in the situation to catch a ball, was he coming down with it like he always has? And those were down. And we remember how bad the end of last season was. From week 10 on, he averaged 7.5 fantasy points a game. He had one finish.

inside the top 24. That's not a high bar to crack. And, you know, now...

He is certainly not used to being the least talented wide receiver in the room. That's what he is now. At this day and age, Nico Collins and Tank Dell are better than him. They also have more experience with CJ Stroud. They're younger. They are more explosive. They are the better options in this depth chart. And if you look at Stephon Diggs, whilst having more wide receivers on the field,

Even over the last couple years while he's dominated, he is not as good in three wide receiver sets. We're talking like last year, yards per route run with three wide receivers on the field, 1.66. Now, you might not know what that means. Let me tell you. It means bad. It means red. It means very, very not good. A very low number among receivers.

30 NFL wide receivers with 90 plus targets while having three wide receivers on the fields. Here's the only ones with a lower yards per out run. Garrett Wilson, who had no quarterback, Tyler Lockett, Elijah Moore, and Tyler Boyd last year. So I do think we saw a decline on the field. Originally, I chalked it all up to the changeover in offensive coordinator and that now the freedom to go somewhere new. I was much more open to him having a great season. Now, I am not

I'm not shutting the door that he can't be decent, but where you're drafting him in the third round, there is no way he is a league winner. There's none. That range of outcomes, to me, to Jason Moore, does not exist. If Stroud

is awesome. The offense clicks on all cylinders. He throws 35 touchdowns. That could happen. But at his age and ADP to pay off, you have to exceed ADP. And a soon-to-be 31-year-old wide receiver changing teams in year 10, well, that is not usually the description of someone that smashes their ADP. In fact, if you look back at the last decade, here are the top 10 best fantasy seasons for wide receivers changing teams at

at year 10. Okay, this is not all of them. This is the best. This is the success story of those. The top 10. Well, you have Brandon Marshall. Awesome season. We remember that long ago. Goes to the Jets. Was like the dude. He finishes the wide receiver three. Okay, great. Then you've got other superstar names in there. Deshaun Jackson, Jordy Nelson, Michael Crabtree, Golden Tate, AJ Green, Adam Thielen, Brandon Cooks.

Just a bunch of great wide receivers. And here's their fantasy finishes. 45, 42, 55, 64, 43, 41, 62, 25, and 37. Those are the best? Those are the top 10 best. And 25? 25? That second best? That was Adam Thielen last year. How do you feel about that? Two comments. One, Michael Crabtree thrilled to be included with those other names. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Two...

What if I told you that Diggs caught 75 for over 1,007 touchdowns? I would say you're super disappointed on spending a third-round pick on that. Like, actually really disappointed. So that was DeAndre Hopkins in Tennessee last year at wide receiver 22, played 17 games, 137 targets. You would not be unhappy about 137 targets.

but obviously not prolific 2020 numbers from Hopkins. I kind of look at those in similar veins. Now, we're clearly not the consensus opinion on Diggs. No, I mean, his average draft position is, yeah. Because his ADP is at 309, and I know there's a name value aspect there. I guess I'm just curious, like, the implication of the Bills saw something in the locker room and they didn't want it anymore, saw something on the field, I should say, is also saying Houston –

Did they make a mistake? But it was probably a gamble. It's not a monetary gamble to the degree that they care if they make the mistake. Yeah, they're fine. They guaranteed the rest of his contract and didn't extend him. So they're just saying, hey, let's bring this in, help this offense stay awesome while C.J. Stroud goes into his second year. And I don't think they made a mistake because they don't need Stephon Diggs to be what he was two years ago. They need Stephon Diggs to come in probably playing the slot a little bit more as he gets –

older, less explosive. He should be the slot player. You might think it's Tank Dell because he's small. That's just not how this offense operates. Tank Dell was 70% an outside receiver last year. You put Stephon Diggs in the slot, that's better for him. That's better for the Texans. It's a good deal. I think the Texans...

should be thrilled to have Stefan Diggs there. I don't think you, as a fantasy manager in the third round, will be thrilled to draft him there. That's why he's my ice. All right, you or me, Mike? Go ahead. You want me to go? Yeah, go ahead. All right. I'm very excited about this player, so I'm going to hit this button. Fire. Oh! Oh!

No tease. Pure gasoline. I screwed the whole tease up by starting with, I'm excited about this player. So I had to hit the button as fast as possible. It could have been a ruse. The tease is that I haven't said the name yet. This is a player that I think has passed the eye test for me from the moment he took the field. And it's Jaden Reed, wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers. Okay. You did talk him up.

Every time you saw him last year. And there was a time when that was not a popular thing to do. And I believe I made the statement that's the best wide receiver that team has in a very small sample size of the rookie year. And I'll tell you, one of the reasons why I sat here and hesitated on making Jaden Reed a fire player just a little bit was the Jahan Dotson experience.

of seeing Jahan Dodson on the field as a rookie and really believing in the talent and then seeing the fact that things can just go wrong for you in your sophomore year, some your fault, some not your fault. Jaden Reed is in the midst of a group of wide receivers in Green Bay that has a lot of ambiguity in the fantasy community as to... Because people... I've noticed something. They want to be fans of Christian Watson. I've noticed that. And they also want to be like...

The Dontavian Wicks homies. Romeo Dobbs is the only one people don't want to like. Yeah, Dobbs is just because he's just like. He's in the way. He's the vanilla ice cream on the roster from a skill standpoint just because he does nothing amazingly but everything good. And for some reason it's like, okay, Wicks, whoo, these target per route run and these numbers are amazing. And Watson, oh my gosh, remember those touchdowns and he's a burner. Well, Jaden Reed is in this other category where like,

I still believe what I said back then. I think he is by far the best wide receiver on this team. I think he has displayed incredible skill from the jump. Not expected. This team didn't expect Jaden Reed to come in and maybe be their number one wide receiver. And you can get a value taking a shot on Watson or Wicks or Dobbs. I don't think you should do that. I think you should spend...

on J spin up on Jaden Reed, who's the highest ADP of the wide receivers for a number of reasons. Historically, statistically over the last five years, the wide receiver one in ADP for a team is the best fancy wide receiver on their team. Over 70, 70% of the time. We've had this discussion in the past with 49 or white outs or the deal and digs. Do you take the discount? There are pretty profound question marks around the other wide receivers in green Bay. There is a health and, and,

And we haven't seen Watson with Jordan Reed. Jordan Love. Jordan Love. Goodness. I'm going to get the... We got there. Yeah, Jordan Reed, the tight end, is also on this team. Rule 86? No, but there are question marks. Wicks, how much opportunity will he have? And then Dobbs, you know, he's in the mix. We got tight ends we like. We got running backs we like. Jaden Reed is the player that they're going to force feed the football all season long. I did a lot of...

Like I watched Kyle posted every target and opportunity for Jaden Reed for the entire year. So not just catches every target. He gets the ball out of the backfield, dealt with injuries at the end of the season. Jaden Reed, to me, the best comp that I found when you look at how he performed at the combine, his physical ability and size and the way he's involved in end rounds and short area targets, but is also a burner down the field because he is so fast. It was golden tape.

Golden Tate, I think, is a perfect match for the kind of player that Jaden Reed is. And right now, Jaden Reed is being drafted as the wide receiver 34. I think you're not having this fire conversation with Jaden Reed saying he's a top 10 wide receiver.

You're talking about a player that I think will be a perennial 10 to 20. I think that's going to be an every year type of thing for Jaden Reed. He also gets the ball on the ground at a higher frequency and will this year than Golden Tate ever did. So you take Golden Tate and that 13 to 15 to 18 type of range that Tate would always finish in and you mix in more Debo Samuel innovative work with the head coach and

To me, he profiles like a Golden Tate. A little bit of Jordan Addison, I think, is in there in terms of the physical size and speed. But from an eyeballs standpoint, this reminds me of when we saw Stephon Diggs coming out in Minnesota and took about three games to recognize this player has an innate ability to get open, to read a defense.

to be available deep down the field when his quarterback is scrambling out of the pocket. They just had a connection last year. If you watch those targets and those rush attempts, he was their best wide receiver, the Packers, against zone defenses. Oh, wait, he was also their best against man defenses. So he was best in both. Target per outrun numbers that we talk about all the time, blew him out of the water on both of those.

The question marks are around utilization and how often you're on the field. And we worry about three wide receiver sets and two wide receiver sets. I don't care that much. I don't, I don't care about that specific. They're all, they have the opportunity to get them the football in a lot of different ways. This is not just line them up and run them down the field. I have a lot of belief in the player, Jaden Reed. And so I think from the perspective of late sixth round draft pick, that is a 10 to 20 finish in my opinion, um,

I'm just very, very excited about the future for him, and I think he's being devalued. He was the wide receiver 23 last year as a rookie with massive injury issues at the end of the year with 94 targets. And if you project him and Watson –

When they played together, he still had more receptions and targets than Christian Watson did. So I'm a big Jayden Reed fan, and I just want to get it out there. Yeah, I mean, I do agree that he is a very talented wide receiver, and I think the Golden Tate comp is nice. I have a hard time drafting him because I don't see that same ceiling. Like you're saying, he basically projects to be a wide receiver too, which is a good value in the sixth round, but I just want that –

You know what I mean? I want to draft that one that makes me hot and bothered for the upside that can be like a top five guy. He was wide receiver nine over the last seven weeks of the year. And I will tell you this from watching the film on Jaden Reed throughout the year, he scored. He was at eight touchdowns last year. There were four on the table for him on top of those. And he also got into the end zone on the ground two times. So, yeah, I think you will have some week-to-week ceiling. On the positive side, I will say this.

Right now, he does project to have the highest probability of being the wide receiver one for this team. At the end of the year, who has the most fantasy points? I'm still betting on the ceiling upside of Christian Watson, but if you're just talking about... But are you telling me you believe Watson's a top five guy? I think he has the ability if he plays healthy and is the one. He's got the

physical ability, the explosiveness, the size, the body, but probability says that it's Jaden Reed. No matter what, I think everyone out there is projecting that the Packers offense is pretty darn good. They've got a great head coach. Jordan Love just got the bag for a reason. And so if you're saying, hey, take a shot in the sixth at the number one wide receiver for a good offense, who's going into year two, which is another good bet to make in fantasy,

I don't have any problem if you want to push your chips on Reed. And I love that you are pushing him in because it's like one of those things where almost in those things to remember type of episodes where you are remembering how much you loved the film last year. Because over and over we'd be sitting in the game room watching all the games going and you would just be like, dude, that guy's got it. I mean, there's a reason why you love Tank Dell. Yes, because that dude's got it. And it's not like, you know, Tank Dell situation.

what's more intimidating to have you know nico collins and that big contract and stefan diggs a potential hall of fame player coming into that environment and here's here's a packers uh wide receiver room that is not as intimidating for a player that starred as a rookie and i feel like and we had the conversation a few weeks ago i do feel like the conversation when you include all four it causes us to lose the focus but that also gives you a discount in fantasy on a player like reed so um i like it i

I like it. I like it. We'll put it on the table. So, Mike, tantalize us with whether your player is a ice or fire. So, I will set it up with this. Jason, you brought up Stephon Diggs, and it's –

it's fun to bring up that situation because right now the Houston Texans have three players, three wide receivers being drafted as top 36 guys, which is a, it's a very rare occurrence. Like that's a strong bet on the Houston Texans, their future, their offense and CJ Stroud. There is actually another team this year that has three wide receivers being drafted inside the top 36, except Houston,

That team has a rookie quarterback. Ice. And unfortunately, rookie wide receiver Roma Dunzay has to be my ice pick. This is coming strictly from an ADT. It feels like it hurts you a little bit. It does because we like the player. When you like a player and then the ADP gets just out of whack,

It hurts. Like Sam Laporta, love the player. The guy's just going too early in the draft. And right now, that's how I feel about Roma Dunze. Like I said, three players, three wide receivers being drafted inside the top 36. It is not common. Before this year and the last five years, we'd only seen it happen two times. Once was the Rams with Brandon Cooks, Robert Woods, and Cooper Cup. It went really poorly for Brandon Cooks that year. The other two were fine.

Then you had the Pittsburgh Steelers, Deontay Johnson, Chase Claypool. Claypill? It was a pill. It was a pill. I felt like it was a tough pill to swallow. And it was. And Juju. All three were top 36 ADP guys. It worked for Deontay Johnson and the other two not so much.

And it's not that there's just two other guys in front of Roma Dunza. It's that one of them is DJ Moore, who just got a big bag of money because they've said that you are an elite player. The other is Keenan Allen, who was absolutely still playing lights out last year. And you're automatically number three in the pecking order, and it just doesn't work out.

Yeah, there's no way outside of injury that a Dunzay is above those two this year. There's just no possible way. And let's say he's number three, and somehow their offense is still pretty good. We know historically a rookie quarterback roughly two-thirds of the time over the last 20 years

So 66% of the time, they can't even support one top 36 wide receiver. One of them. And we're drafting three of them for Caleb Williams. I don't care how... It's a new dawn, Mike. It's a new day. I don't care how bullish you are on the future of Caleb Williams. He could be...

a Hall of Fame player, but he's still a rookie quarterback. And rookie quarterbacks, they have a ceiling. Andy, you brought up the study of how they struggle, especially with passing touchdowns. The yardage could be fine. They've never sustained a double-digit touchdown a year. From a single receiver. Correct. Is that what it is? Correct. So it is absolutely not there. And where he's being drafted...

He's being drafted as the wide receiver 33. On average, that player, the wide receiver 33, is about nine points per game. We're going to expand on the three wide receivers. Over the last seven years, 31 teams with three wide receivers in the top 60. So not even the top 36. We're expanding. Top 60. The wide receiver three averages 7.7 fantasy points per game.

That is way under the expectation that you're hoping for when drafting the wide receiver 33. Only seven of those 31 have surpassed 10 points per game. Essentially what I'm saying with a lot of fancy statistics here is

Your probability of a return is so low that it's just not fair to Roma Dunze, the player, to be putting this much pressure on him, his rookie season, Caleb's rookie season, while you have these other two superstars on the team. He can be wildly helpful to the Bears. Yes. And he can be a good rookie. And you could still not, you know, he might have four or five games left

where a big play makes him a great play for fantasy, but it isn't predictable. So I think it's unfortunate to have to throw the cold water out there on him because, you know, different situation for the same player. If you flip him and Malik neighbor situation, you're probably talking, I mean, you're obviously talking completely different outlook as a rookie. But, but yeah, it makes sense. It's in this wild. Cause when you think of,

Rookie wide receivers, especially in today's NFL. These guys are succeeding earlier and more often now as the rules are changing and the wide receiver skill positions are improving. But did you guys realize that since 2014, there's only 12 rookies that have passed 1,000 yards? Since what year? 2014. So 12 rookies...

Rookie wide receivers. So in 12 and 10 years, basically? Or nine years? Nine, yeah. And that's including 2014 where there were like three or four of them? Or is that like post-2014? The 2014 guys, so that would have been Beckham, Mike Evans, and Kelvin. Just their rookie year. Get bodied, Sammy Watkins. Just saying it's...

That number was really shocking to me because I expected it would be much higher than just 12 guys. All right, we'll take a break and come back with some more Ice and Fire picks. This episode is brought to you by Amazon Business. We all wish we had more time in the day, right? Well, Amazon Business totally gets it. They've got these super smart business buying solutions that cut down on annoying admin work so you can spend more time crushing your business goals and less time buried in paperwork. Smart.

Head over to AmazonBusiness.com to check out their smart business buying. This episode is brought to you by Pebbles Cereal. How's your fantasy team looking? Ever thought of just taking the blah out of it all? Before you make any picks, get some fruity pebbles in your dish. Then before you know it, you're ignoring the boring old stats and only picking players with nouns for surnames. You seen that Danny Dumpster? I heard he stinks.

but think of the fun. Less blah, more yabba-dabba-doo. Head to your nearest grocery store and buy Pebbles cereal now. Yabba-dabba-doo and the Flintstones and all related characters and elements, copyright and trademark, Hanna-Barbera. All right, I'm going to kick it off here with another ice pick because this is ice and fire. You don't know how we're going. And I'm telling you, this little itty-bitty baby boy, Devon A. Chan,

could get broken very easily. Just kidding, baby. He's all... Oh, Devon Achan, I have gone back and forth all season. All offseason, I should say. And I am firmly 100% at the finish line, and I see the end. I see it clearly. Devon Achan is a league winner.

is awesome, will succeed this season, will get more opportunity this season. It will be such a foolish thing at the end of this year where we go back and look at his rookie season and we go, why weren't we drafting this dude in the first? Well, I know why, because he's small. I get it. Like, this is obvious. Look, this is a fire pick. I can go down in flames and timeshare, and they drafted another speedy back. You've got the touchdown machine and Raheem Oster. There's a reason he's in the third.

There's a lot of ways it could go wrong. I am here to tell you he is a fire pick and it is going to go right. He is an explosive play waiting to happen. Number one in next-gen rushing stats, over-expectation per attempt. He was 2.87%.

Yards over expectation per attempt. That's number one. Number two in that was less than half, and it was Christian freaking McCaffrey at 1.32. He led all NFL running backs in yards per touch, 7.7. And here's a stat from our Liar Liar episode in March, just to put his freakish breakaway speed into a clearer view. A-chan had 103 total carries rookie season. That's it. Just barely broke 100.

He now has as many total runs of 40 plus yards as Reggie Bush had in his 10 year career, who was known as a breakaway guy. So I don't have to talk anyone into H and being a free Bush catching strays. Yeah. Hey, you've got your Heisman. You're fine. Grow up. Um, yeah. Does he have more stories? What is happening? Does he have it back? Why are we, he's got it back now, right? Yeah, he does have it back. Leave Reggie alone. Uh,

Look, Reggie, you were electric and awesome. You're no H&N. You can't make it up. No, no, no. If I make Reggie great, and I'm saying H&N is better, that just builds my case. Okay. Reggie, you're so good. Okay. Weirdo. Over the last six years...

We've averaged two running backs per year who have finished as a running back one with fewer than 17 opportunities a game. So there are a couple guys that crack into that. So like super efficient players. Super efficient players. And if you had to put your money on who's going to be super efficient, maybe like the most efficient rookie season of all time going into year two, I don't know, that sounds like a good bet.

He also averaged in his nine full games. I don't know if I like this, Jason. HN Jason. HN Jason is a different Jason. Fire is right because I am hot and bothered. It's very similar to your Jaden Reed. Last year you watched Jaden Reed and you were just like, he's unbelievable. He's another level. I'm trying to remember what I felt, experienced, and every time you watched every play. Don't tell us how you felt. The NFL can't handle this guy. I'm going pantsless because he deserves it.

In his nine full games last year. Clip that. I'm going pantsless because he deserves it. In his nine full games last year, he already averaged 15.1 opportunities a game. That's enough for him to finish as a top 10 back. Obviously, if you have some breakaway touchdown runs, at that point, you're a lock. He's going to be more and more involved, and he is going to grow as a pass catcher in this offense.

He lined up in the slot 35% of his pass plays. That's highest in the NFL last year as a rookie. Of his 36 targets, and keep that number in mind, he only had 36 targets. Of his 36 targets, he was the first read on 67% of them. That's the highest among all running backs. That is the same total amount of first read targets that Rashad White had

Okay, and Rashad White had 70 targets last year. He is not getting dink and dunks. He's not like, oh, a little safety valve. This is a prescriptive, scripted play that says, hey, let's find a way to get A-Chan the ball. He is... Which adds up, just kind of jump in. Yeah, yeah, yeah, jump in. It adds up to the efficiency that you saw because when you have a committee or you have a rookie...

And you know they have a certain level of skill and ability, and you're not putting them on the field every single play. When you do, you generally use them. That's kind of what that is saying in summation, right? Yeah. When he was on the field, they designed plays to utilize him.

Yeah, Ryan Heath does great work on Twitter. You can follow him. He had a tweet talking about how efficient he was and the historical data among rookie running backs drafted in the first three rounds who outperformed their weighted opportunity by two and a half points per game. So that's the stat I was talking about earlier.

Five of five had a volume increase in year two, and four of five topped 20 fantasy points per game. That is a crazy high efficient number. The only one that didn't have Jeff Fisher as a head coach. I like this head coach, and this head coach likes Devon A. Chan. Don't take it from me. Take it from Mr. McDonald. I'm seeing a pro.

that, not to say that he wasn't a pro last year, he was a rookie that really impressed his teammates with his ability to digest and execute. And he really impressed guys about how the game, you hear this much, the game's not too big for him, right? Well...

That's cool for Devon if that's where his ceiling, where he wants his ceiling. Thankfully for the Miami Dolphins, that's not. So he's expanded roles, expanded, you know, different ways that he can get the ball. But he's really, he's become a guy that,

pretty much every person counts on to know, um, and that helps everyone. So he he's become a pro diet strength. Um, it's really cool to see he tastes of success and, uh,

Fortunately for us. Who authorized this? I did. From Mr. McDonald. Mr. McDonald. Had a farm. If you were watching YouTube, you see us cracking up because I said from McDonald. Mike McDonald's.

over here. It was a boring quote, but listen. You get his name wrong. His name is Mike McDaniels. We have no more listeners. They're all gone after that. Yeah, they all went to go draft Devon A. Chan. No, they deleted the show. What was that? It was him saying that he is now an integral part of the offense, that every player on the field is relying on Devon A. Chan. They talked about his diet being serious. Is it McDonald's? Because of the McDonald's.

His body is ready, he is more involved, and he is not content to just stay at what his great rookie season was. That's what he was saying. It was a little boring. It's a lot boring. The content is important for fantasy managers to know that the direction that Arrow is headed up. And obviously, if he gets injured, whatever. But if he's on the field, he's going to win you weeks on the reg. I will say...

Two seconds worth of comments on HM, then we'll move on because I don't really have a lot to add. One, I do believe that Devon HM will be a league winner this year. So I'm with you. My man. Two, I think we can get too lost in the hyper-efficiency and the kind of crazy numbers. I think it's better to focus on is this a really good football player in a really good offense with a really good coach, and he seems committed to being great.

And I think, you know, you don't need to make him a 7.3 to carry his whole career guy to be amazing for fantasy. That is not that's unsustainable. So we don't we can be like, wow, that was an amazing rookie year. I hope he has a better year this year. And I think that's very possible. I, you know, Raheem Ossert, ironically, was was crazy efficient as well. That's part of this offense. So, yeah, I'm with you, I believe.

Is it my turn to talk? Do you want to play that clip again? I've got a 45-minute conversation here. Wait, hold on. Just listen up. I'm seeing a pro. Do you think anybody in the press conference is like, oh, why did I ask that? Oh, I should not have asked that. Yes, no questions only. He's much more fun in person if you got the video. Well, he's a fun guy. He is a fun guy. Yeah. He's just got a funny cadence for podcasting.

I was about to make Jonathan Brooks my ice player on today's show. And you knew better. And so I will briefly tell you why. It is a fear. Jonathan Brooks, rookie running back, ACL tear, opportunities in Carolina. Yeah.

It was going to be built around the fact we've actually had a lot of second round running back flops in year one. A little bit worried about that Charbonnet effect of, you know, you've got other running backs and maybe it just doesn't pan out. You draft him early. He doesn't help your team by the time he's OK. You've moved on. All these reasons for Jonathan Brooks. The reason I did not put him in here after Kyle spent time building my argument with me. I pivoted this morning.

Here's the fundamental reason. He's a great player. And I don't want to make a Michael Carter, Brees Hall mistake with Jonathan Brooks. So I'm just throwing that out. Brees Hall was on a bad football team with a depth chart in front of him and the best player won real quick. And I do think that's possible with Jonathan Brooks, so I'll stay neutral there. Instead, I will use this opportunity to just dump all over Aaron Jones. Nice. And I've historically been a monster Aaron Jones fan.

Aaron Jones is one of those guys that's always been like crazy efficient where we're always like, oh, if he just had like an Adrian Peterson workload. Unleash Aaron Jones, you cowards. But this, you know, you do have to turn the page sometimes in fantasy football. And he's 29.6 years old. The Packers moved on.

And you can say whatever you want about the contract situation. They moved on. They were done with Aaron Jones. They moved on to Josh Jacobs, who was as inversely efficient

as you can be last year. They moved on. 30-year-old running backs, it's not a great bet when they change teams. Since 2000, there was a great article by Marvin on a website, Marvin Eloquin. Since 2000, only 16% of top 24 fantasy seasons have come from running backs over 29 years old. It gets even worse when you're talking about the inefficiency situation there in Minnesota where Kevin O'Connell says he wants to throw the football

and has ranked 28th in rushing attempts for two consecutive years, 31st in neutral rate. You're not going to have as many opportunities on this roster where we all – did we all put Minnesota at the bottom of that division? Yes. I'm pretty sure that's what we did. We did. It's a problem. It's a problem to me. From an efficiency standpoint, I'm worried about touchdown opportunities for Aaron Jones, and I'm worried about the offense not being successful. I'm worried about Ty Chandler being worked in because –

You always work somebody in with Aaron Jones in your backfield. Aaron Jones can prove me completely wrong if he catches five passes a week. Like if that's just what happens in this offense, then I will be proven wrong. But I think it's a tough bet to make. Drafting him as a top 24 running back where I have players later in the draft that I have more confidence in that are on the front side of their career. So, you know, Aaron Jones has just been a player this offseason where I just haven't had the confidence.

So, Kevin O'Connell has not proven the ability to – I mean, we went into last season and the Madison Truthers were ready to be there. We're already dead, man. Leave us alone. Yeah, and so I just don't have the confidence that Aaron Jones is going to be able to have consistency for your lineup this year. Yeah, I get that. I have been pro-Aaron Jones.

The end of last year, he was awesome. He was utilized like crazy, and he was so efficient. I mean, he ended the season just showing like he hasn't lost anything. Obviously, when you get to 30, that is an important number for a running back when you switch teams. That is always a big yellow flag that could cause issues when your team goes from a great offense to a –

more bottom half offense, that's bad for the running back when you've got a rookie quarterback. So there's a lot of things that are certainly stacked up against Aaron Jones. I still think he's got it. I believe that the head coach is very, very smart. I think that he'll unleash Aaron Jones in the right way and he'll be efficient, but I don't see him – he's certainly not a league winner. Well, I hope he unleashes him better than Madison. Oh, I mean, Madison – here's the thing. Here's the only difference that I think is –

We've got to be intellectually honest with the Madison comparison. Last year, there was debate on Madison. Like him or don't like him. There was no debate. You, out of your mouth every time, said he's a bum, he sucks, he's not good. Aaron Jones is actually good. If you want to find the case for Aaron Jones, it's Alvin Kamara's late career success in New Orleans' case, which is catch the football, be efficient on your touches, but you're going from a top offense to potentially a bottom offense. I mean,

We all agree that like Darnold is going to transition at some point in the year. Yes. And Darnold hasn't looked great. Yeah. And the schedule starts with six, five or six tough, tough games for Minnesota. And so then you're saying, okay, you're going to elevate over the back half of the year for a guy that hasn't played 17 games in a long, long time. Yeah. I mean, to me, I feel like Aaron Jones is locked in as a running back too. Ooh, like I'm not there. You,

You think he'll finish outside the top 24 running backs? I think so. See, I don't think he's got the potential to be a running back one this year, but I don't think he's got the potential, barring injury, to be a running back three. He'll be involved in his quality. So if you're drafting him in the six, it's a roster construction thing to me where it's like – RB18 off the board right now? That's where he's going? Is it? Yeah.

Sounds about right, but I think he's just a veteran that might not have that league-winning upside, but in the sixth round, you're looking at, you know, if you can get a running back two in the sixth round, it can be important to your roster. All right.

Moving on. All right. If you've done the math, there'll be no suspense. Fire. It's a fire pick. Mike, I had not done the math, though. Yeah, but our listeners have. Oh, that's probably true. Yes, it is. It's Jalen Waddle of the Miami Dolphins, who is going right now as the wide receiver 18 over on sleeper. And I have...

extreme confidence in Jalen Waddell having a true bounce back season. Last year's end of season numbers, they're not great. 104 targets, he caught 72 for just over 1,000 yards and only four touchdowns. That was the wide receiver 34.

You need to fill in some gaps here, though. He missed three games. So he put up that production in 14 games. On the season, that's like a 1,200-yard pace. You give Jalen Waddell 1,200 yards last year, he's not being drafted as the wide receiver 18. And then look closer at the behind-the-scenes metrics, not just the raw numbers at the end compared to last year where, by the way, in 2022 –

He was the wide receiver seven. Tyreek Hill was on that team. Just a quick reminder that this is not a, well, Jalen Waddell can't succeed with Tyreek. He has already done it. He finished as the wide receiver seven while Tyreek was doing Tyreek things, which are impossible to stop. But so comparing 2023 to 2022 for Jalen Waddell, his yards per route run, very, very close. His targets per route run actually went up.

His pro football focus grade went up. The issue was, number one, touchdowns. Those definitely went down. And two, besides the games that he missed,

watching the Miami Dolphins play, Jalen Waddell was off the field all the time. I was going to say his injuries per lining up to run a route went way up last year. Yes, he was chronically injured and trying to fight through those injuries. So I'm going to make the assumption of health that Jalen Waddell's going to start the year healthy. Let me jump in because the one objection I've heard from our listeners was we talked about Jalen Waddell earlier this offseason, and literally somebody replied and said,

LOL, banking on Waddle's health, I will never draft that player again. Because the burns and the fact that you... There's something like... Julio Jones had these years. He had these years where he didn't miss that many games, but if you had asked us all after the season how many games he missed, we probably would have said like 40. Because it felt...

It feels almost worse when you – is he out there? Yes. Snip, snap, snip, snap, snip, snap. He's on. Oh, he's on the field. Oh, no, he's off the field. That was the experience with Waddle last year is that I think the bridge too far for a lot of fantasy managers is presuming hell. Sure. Let me make the counterargument there. Okay.

Some guys are weak and they get injured and they stay off the field. Okay. And then they miss games. He played in 14 games last year, 17 games a year prior, 16 games a year. That's the rebuttal is he played every single game as a sophomore and he missed a single game as a, as a rookie. So there's, this is not a, well, Jalen Waddle misses tons and tons of games every single year. But again, the point being he actually improved on a lot of metrics. He,

is the perfect player for zone coverage, which the NFL is moving to that more and more. And good luck guarding the Miami Dolphins in man. Can the best cornerback in the league man up against Tyreek Hill? No. I would say if you do that over the course of a game, you're going to end up having a bad time. I think the best cornerback in the league probably says no.

The best cornerback in the league definitely says yes. They're going to say yes, but can they actually do it? And Tyreek Hill's numbers against zone are incredible. Last year, the highest...

yards per route run in zone. Who's number two on that list above Justin Jefferson, above Amon Ross St. Brown, above Puka, Debo, Brandon IU. It's Jalen Waddell. Like Jalen Waddell was actually very, very good in his, in yards per route run and opportunities. I think everything was completely related to injury and

completely related to expectations of last year. He was the wide receiver nine, so that was admittedly devastating. I had Waddle on a lot of teams last year, and it didn't work. But that year is gone. Jalen Waddle, all the arguments of, okay, is it a good player on a good offense with a good head coach?

Check, check, check. Yeah, you know, your fantasy football emotional reaction is going to be proportional to the investment made. Yes. And so because of that. And I understand because I have that happen too. If you're drafted at wide receiver 30 and you get hurt a little bit for three years, you know, one year of injury-riddled play for Waddell feels like it's the story of his life. And so that is my way of saying he is discounted.

Yes, and wide receivers going around Jalen Waddell in the draft right now. Jay, Stephon Diggs is one spot ahead of Jalen Waddell. Yeah, no thank you. Then you have DJ Moore. That's fine. You can make the argument, but I'm still on the side of it's a rookie quarterback, and I'm not going to draft DJ Moore in the third round. I'd much rather have Waddell. And then Malik Nabors, who's a rookie himself in a tough situation. So the guys right around him,

For me, it's really, really easy that if – and I'll go RB, RB, Jalen Waddell as my one. That's where my confidence is in him despite him being the number two on his team. I'd be nervous, but it might be the right move. I do feel like an honorable mention fire for me would be DJ Moore in the discussion. You know, this contract –

is a reflection on... He was one of the best players I watched play football last year. I didn't want to watch Justin Fields play quarterback very often. Some things he does were exciting. Some things were infuriating. But DJ Moore was just next level. He got rewarded for it early.

I still think he is – like your argument against the Doons, like your bet should be on Moore there. I mean, I just – it really, really should. Sure. In my opinion. No, I have no problem, especially of the three of them. One of them could really succeed, like one of the Bears wide receivers I'm talking about. I think it's going to happen. I'd put the bet on D.J. Moore, but it's between him and Keenan Allen I think is – it's not a slam dunk that it's D.J. Moore.

I think it's... What does Mr. McDonald think? Pretty close. I think he had a farm. Yeah. And he sent some ice picks out. It was great because you set it all up with the wrong name. It was like... It was great. You're like... But you got the clip and everything. A lot of homework on this episode. Look, when you love Devon Achan, you... You really do. I do. Where's the tattoo going? Do you know about audio editing?

Let's talk to the owl on that one. No, no, no. I was privy to you assigning the clip to Al. Al, I'm going to defend you here. Thank you. I heard you say it'll probably be about a minute. Yeah, it was a beautiful minute. It was an important minute. I sat in real time and listened to a 10-minute quote. Here's the thing. Here's the thing.

It is not fair to Mr. McDonald. It is not fair to Mr. McDonald to have to come. You know how you have these speeches and then you've got to go up after someone that

that's just crushing you know oh like we opened for him i was his opener it was like oh that's not fair he should have opened for me i see and then and then it would have been okay but i'm the headliner i'm sorry mr mcdonald i apologize i was too busy laughing what'd he say oh

I didn't. Did he say he likes 8chan? He said that 8chan is a pro, that he's focused on his diet. I did hear that a few times. That he's focused on his diet, that he's not content, and that the entire offense is completely relying on him.

Okay. Okay. Well, that was a pro. Oh, no. Make it stop. Stop it, Al. All right. That is going to do it for today's episode of this show, but we are back to five days a week. So please join us Monday through Friday, every single day, the fantasy footballers and do me a favor. It helps the show. If you are listening on Spotify, if you're listening on Apple podcasts, there's a follow button.

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We just want Apple and Spotify, right? I get what you're doing. I mean, they are still subscribed on YouTube, though. But you can click the bell. You can bell it up. It's August. We're coming every day. And don't forget about the Ultimate Draft Kit, as I was saying, ultimatedraftkit.com. That'll do it. We'll catch you tomorrow for a brand-new episode of the show. So we'll be back again. Goodbye. Bye-bye.

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.