Will The Protests Over Gaza Affect The 2024 Election? 35:58

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Run for Speaker of the House. Hello and welcome to the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Druk. College graduation season is getting underway with a spotlight on campus protests over the war in Gaza. This morning, Monday morning, Columbia University canceled its main commencement event after calling in the NYPD last week to disband an encampment and clear an administrative building that protesters had taken over.

All of this is focusing attention on the youth vote and how these scenes could shape Americans' votes this fall. So we're going to dig into it. We also have a good or bad use of polling example, courtesy of RFK Jr. He called the national media to downtown Brooklyn last week to make a, quote, major announcement. And that announcement was a poll, which he used to claim that he is not, in fact, a spoiler in the 2024 presidential election.

We will be the judges of that. Here with me to do it all is senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich. Welcome to the podcast, Nathaniel. Hey, Galen. It's been a minute. How have you been? I'm good. I've been traveling a lot. I went and saw the total eclipse of the sun. But yeah, I missed you, Galen. So I'm back. I decided to come back just for you. I missed you too, Nathaniel. Also here with us is senior elections analyst Jeffrey Skelly. Welcome to the podcast. Hey, Galen. Thanks for having me. I would say that I've missed you, but I haven't had the opportunity to miss you. We've been talking a lot these days.

But somebody else that I have missed is New York Times polling editor Ruth Gelnick. Welcome back to the podcast, Ruth. Thank you. I've missed you guys, too. Oh, OK.

Okay, all right. Well, we're one big happy family now, and we're going to talk about politics. So get ready. Last week, protests on college campuses became a major focal point. Protesters set up encampments on campuses across the country to oppose Israel's conduct and its conflict with Hamas, American military aid to Israel, and college endowment investments in companies with relationships to Israel, along with some more radical messages as well.

In some cases, local police entered campuses to disband the encampments and arrest protesters. And it made for some very dramatic scenes and even comparisons to anti-war unrest from the late 1960s. And this is coming at a time when President Biden's standing with young voters has already deteriorated in the polls. And some analysis has suggested that the war in Gaza has a lot to do with it.

So let's first, though, set the scene with where young people are at politically right now. Ruth, how are they thinking about the Biden-Trump rematch compared with four years ago?

I mean, a lot of young people are pretty unhappy with the Biden-Trump rematch compared to four years ago. There's been a lot of slippage, particularly for Biden, among young people, among 18 to 29-year-olds. A lot of different polls are showing that, that this is a group who's hesitant, concerned. They don't like the candidates. Some of them are curious about Trump, but overall, they're just unhappy with the state of affairs and unhappy with their choices.

Yeah, I think that's a key question here. So we've seen slippage across polls. Jeffrey, you spent some time crunching the numbers on this and also views of the war in Gaza. And we're going to get to that in a second. But have you determined from your own research how much of this is slippage with Biden and now these voters don't really know where they're going to go versus slippage with Biden and now they know they're going to go to Trump and or RFK Jr.?

I think it is probably more likely the former, that Biden has slipped, but they're not absolutely sure where they're going. It really is a bit of – I described it as a choose-your-own-adventure with polling crosstabs of voters who are 18 to 29 or 18 to 34. It depends, poll to poll, how they sort of split that out.

But you'll have some that have Biden slightly ahead. You'll have some with them roughly tied, and you'll have some with Trump slightly ahead, but usually with a larger share of voters in that age range who say they're undecided than among older age groups. And that actually is not unusual. Young people are just less likely to be politically engaged.

But at the end of the day, you're talking about a group that roughly voted for Biden by around 25 percentage points, depending on which survey you were looking at in 2020. So if it's relatively close, no matter how you cut it, that's not good for Biden. And that's not exactly new. It's been that way for some time now. But I think what's new or newer is the focus on the conflict in Gaza and

and how young people are reacting to it. So how clear are the gaps between how young voters are thinking about this issue versus older voters?

Many polls have shown that young people are less likely to sort of have positive sentiments about Israel. They're more likely to have positive sentiments about Palestinians than older voters. They're less likely to say we support the U.S. giving Israel military aid.

I looked at a Pew Research poll from February, so that obviously was a little while ago, but I thought it did a really good job of sort of laying out the broad contours of this because other polls have shown that the broad contours remain the case. You had 18 to 29-year-olds more likely to say that Israel's response to the attacks had been unacceptable, were more likely to oppose providing aid, that Biden was favoring the Israelis too much versus kind of staying neutral or even favoring the Palestinians.

And they were more likely, although not very likely to say this, but they were more likely than other age groups to say that Hamas had valid reasons for fighting Israel. And they were more likely to sympathize with Palestinians than other age groups.

What kind of gaps are we talking about here? Is it like a 20-point gap, a 50-point gap? Yeah. I mean, one of the issues with any of these polls is that in some cases, you have a lot of people who say they're not sure. And it's because not that many people, especially young people, are actually paying attention to this subject, even though we are obviously talking about it a lot. But for instance, on sympathizing more with Palestinians, 33%

of 18 to 29-year-olds in that poll said that versus 17% of 30 to 49-year-olds. And then the 50 to 64 and 65 or older group were farther down there, around 10%.

But I want to make it clear. It's like this doesn't necessarily mean that young people are like super anti-Israel and pro-Hamas because actually it's just more like complicated than that. And I think, for instance, pretty much everyone of all age groups said that the way Hamas carried out its attack was unacceptable in that poll. It's just more nuanced. And again, people are not paying as much attention to this and are not necessarily weighting this as that important politically.

So maybe a trickier question here for Ruth or Nathaniel, if you have thought, why is this the case? Why do we see an age gap in views of the conflict?

I think this is often the case. We see this with protests over the last century, right? That in a lot of these cases, young people are more fired up. They're more likely to protest. This is, you know, people have drawn connections between this and 68 and the conventions. So it's not uncommon to see these kinds of protests flare up among young people. As Jeff said, it's actually not an issue for most young people. That's top of mind, but for the people who it is, well,

This is something they feel really passionately about, and this is something that has really stoked a lot of passion, particularly among sort of an educated class of young people who are on college campuses who are exposed to a lot of these conversations. So there is something that's not just among young people, but sort of unique among more educated young people that's happening here.

Yeah, I think perhaps nowadays there is this perception that Israel is really kind of a superpower in the region. Back in the day, you know, Israel was, it was a new thing. And the idea that, you know, there was this Jewish home state in the Middle East that was kind of constantly under threat was more prevalent, perhaps. I'd also say that

Younger generations here in the U.S. are more racially diverse, and I think that there is probably more of a sense of solidarity with Palestinians among people of color. So I think there are a variety of reasons for why younger people are more pro-Palestinian.

A lot of these sort of trends predate the conflict. Younger people have, in previous polling, you know, 2020, 2021, if you look at surveys, will have said things like they were more sympathetic toward Palestinians than other age groups, were more likely to have negative views of Israel than other age groups. And so really the conflict has just sort of reemphasized that split.

You've all alluded to this idea that while this is getting a lot of attention right now, these protests, that it's not actually all that salient to a lot of young people's vote. Can you put that in context? Because when you look at the news right now, that's maybe a hard thing to conceive of.

The Harvard Institute of Politics puts out the Harvard Youth Poll, where they measured the attitudes and opinions of 18 to 29-year-olds in the United States. In their most recent poll in the spring, so it was conducted right at the end of March, they essentially randomized 16 different issues, and they gave each respondent two and said, hey, which one of these is more important?

Through that, they were able to come up with 64% of the samples said that inflation was more important than other issues that it was compared to. Healthcare was 59% more important. These were like one and two, and then like housing and gun violence and jobs and corruption and protecting democracy. All these things were slightly more important than not to the issue it was compared with.

At second from the bottom on this list of most important issues was Israel-Palestine, and only about a third said it was more important an issue than the issue it was compared with. And the only thing lower than that, which is also interesting, it could be a whole other conversation in and of itself, was student debt, which is a much talked about issue. Some narrative busting here. Yeah, I mean, really. So, like, that's one data point. And then you look at, for instance,

Bloomberg and Morning Consult have been doing this swing state polling, and so you have sort of a seven states sample. The two issues that young people, whether you were talking about 18 to 34-year-olds or Generation Z, which are basically 18 to 27 right now among adults—

The issue that they basically rated at the bottom or tied at the bottom as how highly they rated their importance to their vote were the Israel-Hamas conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war. The economy was 95% said it was very or somewhat important. 59% of 18 to 34-year-olds said the Israel-Hamas war was very or somewhat important to their vote. So like,

I want to just make it clear, people can hold multiple things in their mind at the same time, like issues that they find important. But I think there's just a lot of evidence that this is an issue that is second to a lot of other issues and broader dissatisfaction with Biden's handling of these issues that are rated as more important, I think are probably a bigger reason for why we're seeing Biden's problems.

And I think it's worth remembering that the 18 to 29 group, which is, as Jeff alluded, there are a lot of different cuts of age that we end up with. But 18 to 29 is kind of the main one. It's a fairly broad group. You've got these kids on one end, and I shouldn't call them kids, people who are young voters who are 18, maybe in college, are having very different experiences than people who are at the top end of that range, 27, 28, 29, who might be thinking they are earning an income. They might be trying to buy a house. Like, they have a lot of financial pressures. And so, I think it's worth remembering that the 18 to 29 group, which is, as Jeff alluded,

and sort of different things at play. And so this is a fairly broad group. It's not shocking though, that inflation, the cost of housing, the economy would come to the top for a lot of people in this group. You know, we mentioned earlier in the conversation, and this really is a driving factor, younger voters are more diverse, but interestingly across white, black and Hispanic voters in the Harvard IOP poll,

They all raided, you know, in this kind of head-to-head issues matchup. The Israel-Gaza conflict was second to last across all three groups. So it is something that's still not top of mind for these young voters.

Yeah, and to that point, we talked about the economy on last Thursday's episode and sort of what was motivating pessimism about the economy. And one of the big ones was borrowing costs. And borrowing costs are going to affect most acutely people who are sort of in the beginning stages of their financial lives, trying to buy houses or cars or trying to pay on credit card debt and not maybe boomers, for example, who have made some of the big life purchases decades ago.

Let's try to put this in perspective then. Like, what, when we see all of these images on TV or headlines or whatnot, how large of a section of the American public are we talking about here? A very small section. I mean, you know, young people are an important part of the vote, but at the same time, they vote at lower rates than any other age group.

And so it's a small group. Even when you're looking at registered voters, it's around 15, 16 percent. But when you're looking at likely voters, that group shrinks even smaller because just historically, this isn't particular to this group of 18 to 29 year olds, but historically, 18 to 29 year olds voted a much lower rate than the rest of the public. And especially if you're thinking about college student protesters, I mean,

to Ruth's point earlier, 18 to 29, people who are like 27, 28 are very different from people who are 19, 20. The 19, 20-year-olds are even less likely to show up. And of course, the 27-year-old is more likely to show up. So if you sort of think about it, it's like,

maybe the 27-year-old has like slightly more than 50% shot of showing up and voting, and the person who's 20 on average is like a one in three shot or something or what have you. So the number of people who are involved in these events is actually not that large in the grand scheme of things. And if you're thinking about sort of their influence in politics, it's not that large. But that's not to say it's not important. You know, we live in an era of very close and competitive elections and

If a group fell off significantly while everything else stayed the same, that could have an impact on the outcome. I think the bigger story here is that Biden just has like a larger deterioration problem across the electorate. It's not just young people. It's across the board. And the reasons behind that

are not that different necessarily from group to group because the concerns are similar in terms of concerns about inflation, the economy more generally. These are things that are affecting people in different ways across different age groups, but they all are saying this is a top concern.

So I think people, analysts, or even just people who pay attention to politics are looking at these protests and maybe coming to one of two conclusions. One is, oh, Biden is doing really poorly with young voters. He's not listening to their complaints about Israel's conduct in the war, and maybe he should pivot accordingly. And then there's other people who look at these protests and say, wow, I don't like that. Like, I don't like what's happening on college campuses. That's a mess. That also seems driven by people on the left.

Maybe that will be bad for Biden because they're associating this sort of chaos with the Democrats. And therefore, Biden should sort of distinguish himself or distance himself from what's happening on college campuses. So those are two pretty competing narratives in terms of the electoral consequences of this. Who's right? I mean, I don't think that the first election

is right for the reasons that we've talked about. I think the second argument is a valid hypothesis. The protests are unpopular. So according to a recent RMG research poll, only 31% of registered voters approve of the protests and 50% disapprove. You know, Biden coming out last week and saying everybody has the right to peacefully protest, but like a lot of these things have gone too far. You can't use violence and stuff like that. Reflects like a very like normie attitude

attitude that he's kind of perfected throughout his life, which is coming in like right at the median on issues. And it's a smart play politically. That said, the war itself in Israel, Gaza isn't rating very highly on people's priority lists, regardless of age group. I don't think the protests are either. With any of these million news cycles that happen throughout the year, I just don't think this is going to be

highly in the news when people are voting in October and November, and I don't think it's going to be the top of people's minds. We already know the number of persuadable voters is very, very small.

It's hard to imagine the type of voter who is genuinely on the fence and then this pushes them over to vote for Trump over Biden. Throw this in the very large pot of issues that are not great for Biden, that could be used as an excuse to vote against him, but probably ultimately most people have already decided how they feel. You know, some of how Biden has gone about this reflects sort of the reality of our politics, which is that

Overall, people are somewhat more sympathetic with Israel or somewhat more pro-Israel in terms of the larger scheme of things in the electorate. But there is a group, particularly among progressive Democrats, who are most upset about what is going on, and that is a part of the Democratic base. And therefore, Biden is trying to modulate as best he can between sort of the overall picture of the public, but then also the

very vocal members of his own base. That's a tough place to be. If your party is split on an issue, that's a tough spot to be in politically. And we've seen that with Republicans for Ukraine, for instance. But I think our larger conversation here is that there are other bigger problems for Biden politically. Politically, this is not to minimize what's happening in Israel right now and in Gaza. It's not to minimize it. It's just that if you're thinking about domestic politics in the United States,

This just isn't as high on the list. And I think actually a good way to contextualize that is that there have been a lot of comparisons made to 1968 in Vietnam. And I find those comparisons to be laughable. Laughable. We had hundreds of thousands of U.S. troops on the ground in Vietnam. In most important problem polling by Gallup, you had more than 40% consistently saying Vietnam was the number one problem, the most important problem. Right now, based on March polling from Gallup,

I had to generously add up things that could relate to Israel-Palestine to get to just shy of 10%. It's just not the same at all. I mean, I understand, trust me, as someone who enjoys political history and trying to tie things back, I think it is absolutely right to look for potential comparisons. I just think that it is not 1968.

All right. Well, with that, let's move on and assess RFK Jr.'s use of polling. But first, a break. Today's podcast is brought to you by GiveWell. You're a details person. You want to understand how things really work. So when you're giving to charity, you should look at GiveWell, an independent resource for rigorous, transparent research about great giving opportunities whose website will leave even the most detail-oriented reader stunned.

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Independent presidential candidate RFK Jr. gathered the national media last Wednesday to make a major announcement. The announcement was largely about the results of a poll. The campaign presented a 26,000-person national poll conducted by John Zogby Strategies, which tried out different head-to-head matchups among Biden, Trump, and Kennedy.

The Biden-Trump head-to-head poll shows Trump winning all the battleground states except for Pennsylvania and Michigan and winning the Electoral College.

The Kennedy-Biden head-to-head poll shows Kennedy winning by a landslide, 367 electoral college votes. And then finally, the Kennedy-Trump head-to-head poll shows Kennedy winning exactly 270 electoral college votes, picking up states like Utah, Georgia, and Michigan.

Kennedy, who has himself been accused of being a spoiler by both sides, used this poll to accuse Biden of being a spoiler in the election, saying that he, Kennedy, is the only one who can beat Trump.

He went on to ask Biden to take a no-spoiler pledge, which would involve the two of them co-funding a 50-state poll in mid-October of 30,000-plus likely voters. Whoever did worse in the head-to-head against Trump would drop out. Okay, so this is quite the use of polling. I don't know that we've ever had a campaign use of polling quite like this.

So whatever you think of the poll, an exciting moment for us here on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. And before we get too far into this, I do just want to survey you all about whether or not this was a good or bad use of polling. Put the pledge, the spoiler pledge aside, just the presentation of that Zogby poll. Ruth, good or bad use of polling?

Well, I mean, for me, transparency is key with polling. To judge a good poll, you have to know a lot about the poll. And I know very little about how this poll is conducted. Despite lots of searching, there's very little information about how they conducted. So it's hard for me to say it's a good use of polling if you can't tell me how the poll was actually conducted. Okay. So I assume that is a, is that a bad use of polling? Yes, it is a by default bad use of polling. Okay.

Nathaniel? I think it is a bad use of polling, but I don't actually think it is that much worse than any normal campaign's internal poll trying to use a poll to spin it for themselves. I think the pledge is actually the worst use of polling.

Okay, Jeffrey? I think it's a bad use of polling, but kind of like Nathaniel, not so much by the campaign as just like to take it seriously would be a bad use of polling. And I mean that in the sense that part of Kennedy's appeal is just basically being other. And so is it a surprise that the guy who essentially is functioning still as other in a poll is

would be beating Biden or beating Trump when we know people are not happy with them. And like the reality is Kennedy is not going to get the share of the vote that he's getting in some national polls right now because we've seen this story before. And so for me, it's like he's trying to use that reality and the fact that he is sort of the other candidate right now and he has a famous last name to make this case. I just think that it's not a credible case, but I understand why he's trying to make it.

Okay, so the other question I have here is about the presentation of this information, which is basically taking a national poll, which has a large sample, 26,000, although we don't have much information about how the poll was conducted beyond that, and translating it into electoral college outcomes. Because in the presentation, he doesn't show percentages, like who wins what percentage of the national vote. He just shows who would win the electoral college.

They say that the margin of error here is much smaller because the sample is so large. But again, hard to believe that given that we actually don't know very much. So the presentation of the results of a poll as electoral college outcomes, what do we make of that? Because to me, that was the particularly bad use of polling. Like taking one poll and saying, well, this is who would win the electoral college is like, all right, there's a lot of error here. Well, we're six months out, of course.

But it just seemed ham-handed. But, like, that's on, like, the campaign, right? Well, that's the use of polling that we're talking about. Right, yes. And it's bad. But, like, when a campaign conducts an internal poll, they will typically only show you the information they want to show you. And a lot of the time that is not up to snuff for us journalists who are interested in the full kind of methodological details and, like, the dates of the poll and the sample sizes and stuff like that.

I will say that John's LogB strategies did respond when we reached out to them for methodological details and they gave it to us. So we know that this was an online survey, for example, we have the sample sizes for each state. We know that the results within each state were weighted to each individual state. So in terms of the way the poll was conducted, I think it was actually fine. And I do think actually like- Did they tell you how they recruited their sample? Yes, they sent emails to random samples of adults.

So they gave us the information, like, you know, the pollster, I think, is fine. But again, it's like, this is how it works in internal campaign poll land, right? Like, the pollster conducts a valid poll, and then the campaign gets to pick and choose, like, what they present and stuff. So Kennedy got to get up in with his nice, glossy, you know, PowerPoint with the maps and everything.

be like, look, it's a landslide or whatever, which is like obviously silly, but like the data is sound. And I do actually like, like it is true that like a 26,000, like if you're going to do a 50 state poll, you need to have a decent sample size in each state, which means you're going to have to have this like very large

sample size nationally. And that is, it is better to have a larger national sample size. The silly thing comes when like, like there, there was a video that was released on Twitter and accompanying this poll where like the Kennedy campaigns, like director of content, quote unquote, basically was like, our like margin of error is like only 0.6%. So it's statistically impossible for Biden to win the election. Like,

No, that's not correct. It doesn't mean that like this poll is guaranteed to be accurate within 0.6%. Like, yeah, so like that's all silly. But again, to a certain extent, like it's their job to spin it their way, but it's also our job to debunk that.

Do we see these results reflected elsewhere, which is like we know that the Biden-Trump head-to-head today looks good for Trump. So that finding in this poll is not particularly surprising. But the finding that it would be a quote-unquote landslide victory for Kennedy versus Biden, is that reflected anywhere else? And then also that Kennedy would actually beat Trump in a head-to-head? Likewise, is that reflected anywhere else?

So I think to Jeffrey's point, those results are plausible. But because Kennedy is this amorphous entity right now, and I think that you see in other polls that a lot of people still don't know what RFK believes. And I continue to think that is going to change as people tune into the election as the campaigning happens. So like the fact that, yeah, there would be this landslide victory against

Biden or whatever for a RFK right now when he is just this generic other candidate does not reflect what would actually happen in a real campaign. I went through our polling database. I only found one other poll that tested Biden against Kennedy without including Trump. And it's a fun one. This is from the University of Massachusetts Lowell and YouGov, and it tested Joe Biden against Robert F. Kennedy and Kanye West as the Republican nominee.

And it found Biden at 42 percent, RFK at 24 percent, and Acanye at 6 percent, with 15 percent saying they would choose another candidate and 14 percent saying they were undecided. So that would suggest that Biden would have a significant edge over Kennedy in a very alternate universe version of this. But yeah, like I said, I think it's plausible the results that the poll found right now.

Right. And right now is the important piece of that, right? Like we've seen from historical third party candidates that the summer before the election or the spring in this case is a really great time for third party candidates when a lot of people are thinking hypothetically, they're feeling frustrated with their choices, and it could be a version of a protest vote.

It's not to say that that will happen with Kennedy, but historically, it's very common for these candidates to peak around now or in the next few months and then go down as we get closer to the election. So is this plausible for what's happening right now? Sure. Is this plausible for what might happen in the election? That's harder to say and feels not necessarily likely.

Okay, now the moment you've been waiting for. Is the spoiler pledge a good or bad use of polling? Which is to say, I'll repeat, that in mid-October, both Kennedy and Biden would co-fund a 30,000-plus likely voter poll, and whoever does worse in the head-to-head against Trump would drop out. Good or bad use of polling? We'll start with you again, Ruth.

I would say bad use of polling, mostly because as somebody who is a big proponent of polls, I don't think that anybody should be making these decisions based on polls. Lots of people decide in the weeks before the election. And so saying where the race stands a few weeks before the election or October or whenever the pledge is like that doesn't leave a lot of people time to decide. So I would say that in any anybody making that pledge, that's not a good use of polling.

Yeah, exactly. Polls are fallible. You shouldn't be like, especially if it ends up being like close, like you shouldn't be like, well, this is definitive proof that, you know, RFK is going to do better against Trump than Biden. And that's setting aside all the like, you know, political factors like, you know, like Democrats obviously are not just going to like punt an election and early voting. It's a thing. A lot of votes will have been cast at this point in, you know, if it's like mid-October or whatever. So, yeah, obviously it's silly to make decisions.

massive political decisions like that based on a single poll.

Yeah, as you know, we always recommend that people should react to just one poll for their understanding of what's happening. I am joking, listeners. I am joking. No, don't go off of one poll. And, you know, this poll that Kennedy's campaign put out, it looks like they ranged between about 250 and 750 sample size in each state, which, you know, 750, 700, 600, that's fine. Fine. It's not like the best, but it's fine.

250 people in Wyoming or whatever. I mean, honestly, Wyoming is really challenging to poll, so okay. But it's just the broader point is like it's one poll with a bunch of state-level samples that they've reweighted at the state level. But at the end of the day, it's like I'm taking one poll of Michigan. I'm taking one poll of Nevada. And then trying to use that as evidence to make a very important political decision doesn't make a lot of sense. Wow.

Let me provide the counterbalance to that just to say people do make decisions as they're deciding whether or not to run for things. They put out polls and they do decide based on that. But I think I'm not in the room when those decisions are being made. But oftentimes you're seeing large differences that

ultimately say there's really no path for me to run or something like that. In this case, we're talking about very small, very narrow margins where decisions really shouldn't be made. You know, like if you're thinking of running for, say, governor of Maryland, you might put a pole in the field and say, wow, there's really no path for me. It's a, you know, 20 point hill to climb and I can't climb it. But that's not what we're talking about here. So people do use poles for this purpose. But in this case, I don't think it's the right use of polling.

And I will say to the question of whether Kennedy is pulling more from Biden or Trump when we launched the polling averages a couple weeks ago, it looks like he is pulling more from Biden at this moment, although pulling from both, obviously. It's about even, I think. And in particular, like, right, we don't run a national election. We run swing states. And in the swing states right now, it feels kind of about even. It's more even. OK, all right.

That's where things stand now. And as you've heard throughout, this stuff can change a lot over the next six months. We're going to leave it there for now. Thank you so much for joining me today, Ruth, Nathaniel, and Jeff. Thank you. Thanks, Galen. Thanks, Galen.

My name is Galen Druk. Our producers are Shane McKeon and Cameron Shortavian, and our intern is Jayla Everett. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcasts at 538.com. You can also, of course, tweet at us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple Podcast Store or tell someone about us. Thanks for listening, and we will see you soon.