Do The Betting Markets Have 2024 Right?

Publish Date: 2024/1/4

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Is that your iPhone that you're using? Yeah. I was going to say, you can just put your stand on a bunch of books. That's how I always end up doing this. That's what I'm doing. I actually would love to hear a rundown of like the books people use. This stack, I almost don't want to say it because it's too... Well, now you have to say it. It's a biography of Eleanor Roosevelt.

Secret City, which is about, like, the secret gay history of Washington, and a giant book called The Art of Harry Potter. Nice. So all gay books. Yeah, pretty much. Pretty much.

Hello and welcome to the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Druk, and happy new year. It's 2024. We are officially in a presidential election year, so buckle up, folks. And we have got a special start of the year edition of the podcast today. We're going to kick things off with a game of buy, sell, hold. So

Let me explain. There are a lot of unknowns as we start the year. Who will win the party nominations? Will a third party candidate break through? What will come of Trump's legal liability? And ultimately, who will win the White House and also the House and Senate? There are betting markets for just about all of these unknowns. And so I'm going to ask my colleagues to make an assessment of the going odds.

That will address many of the known unknowns of twenty twenty four. But what about the unknown unknowns? What issues might motivate voters this year? How will congressional dysfunction play out? What about October surprises and will there be threats to democracy? We're going to dig into some of the wild cards or possible wild cards of twenty twenty four.

Here with me to discuss it all is senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich. Welcome to the podcast. Happy New Year, Galen. Thank you. Also here with us is politics reporter Leah Skarnom. Welcome to the podcast, Leah. Hi, thanks. And also with us is Jeffrey Skelly, senior elections analyst. Welcome, Jeffrey. Hey there, Galen. It's so good to see you guys. Does everything feel different now that we're in 2024? No, it feels so the same. Yeah. Yeah.

All right. All right. Well, we're kicking things off with our usual 538 cynicism. Good to know that some things never change. Yeah, I was not like, woo, on New Year's Eve. I was like, well, it's finally here, guys. 2024.

And with that, let's begin with buy, sell, hold. So I am going to share the current probability of something happening in 2024 according to the betting markets, or as we like to call them here on the podcast, the Scottish teens. For folks who have been listening for a while, you know what I'm talking about. For example, Predict It puts Donald Trump's likelihood of winning the Iowa caucuses at 92%.

If you think that is low, then it underestimates the likelihood you will buy. If you think it's high, in other words, it overestimates the likelihood you will sell. And if you think it's about just right, you will hold. In case you forget, just think about the stock market. Buy low, sell high. Jeff, let's kick things off with you.

And let's use the example that I just gave. The Iowa caucuses, they're a week and a half away. Predict it puts Trump's odds of winning at 92%. Are you buying, selling, or holding? I think I am actually buying. Wow. I feel like the statistical certainty of Trump winning, given what we're seeing in the polls...

There hasn't been some sort of dramatic shift going on with the other candidates while Trump has sort of just remained in the lead. In fact, Trump's even gained ground nationally. And I just don't feel like there's been enough volatility there.

In this race to make me think that there's going to be a ton of it here right before Iowa. Now, of course, I don't know if something could happen. Ron DeSantis drops out or something. I don't think that's going to happen. But I'm saying, you know, I have to leave room for surprises. But I honestly think I would I would buy that Trump's chances are actually higher than 92 percent of just winning Iowa. Yeah. Not by margin, just winning.

All right, Leah. Yeah, I would probably hold because I'm a more cautious person. But I think buy is also like if I had a different personality type, I would probably also buy. The only reason why I would leave, you know, a 10 percent, 8 percent chance of Trump not winning it is that it's a caucus and caucuses are weird and people can convince each other and move around so

So I might go for it and buy if, you know, Iowa was holding a traditional primary. But I think I'm going to leave a little bit of cushion and hold for the Iowa caucus. Yeah, it's a good point about the caucuses. The people who have most of the say in a caucus system are the people who are really dedicated and willing to go out and spend maybe even a couple hours talking.

in the evening, hanging out in a high school gym or at a hotel conference room. And back in 2016, everyone was like, are Trump supporters actually going to do that? You know, he doesn't have much of a campaign infrastructure.

Ultimately, Ted Cruz did win in 2016. Barely. Barely. So when it comes to who has the most enthusiastic supporters this time around, like which supporters would you expect to be up for going to that high school gymnasium and hanging out for a couple hours to make sure that their candidate wins? I don't think many people are questioning Trump supporters this year. Well,

No, that's fair. They're probably the most enthusiastic. But I mean, I don't know, like Nikki Haley, like some, I don't, I don't know. That's always the caveat of this primary cycle. Something, something, something, Nikki Haley, something, something. All right, Nathaniel, let's move on to you.

Yeah, I agree with both Jeffrey and Leah. I think, you know, if I had to put odds on it, it would be somewhere at like 95%, which I guess technically would be a buy. But I also don't want to like, you know, get too nitpicky about it. So I think, you know, it's basically a hold. Trump is extremely likely to win the Iowa caucuses. People should not kind of enter Iowa with any under any delusions that he will lose. If he does, it would be a huge, huge upset.

In terms of the data, Trump is right at 50% in our polling averages, and he is followed distantly by Ron DeSantis at 18% and Nikki Haley at 16%. And our colleague, Elliot Morris, looked a few weeks ago at kind of historical movement in the Iowa polls and found that since 2008, the biggest movement for any candidate has been 12 points. Now, obviously, before 2008, maybe there were some bigger shifts. And I

And I should say that was within the last month of the campaign. And now, obviously, we're in the last week and a half, as we mentioned. So it would really be quite shocking to see the polls shift that much over the next week and a half. And then, obviously, you would need, in addition to that, like a fairly large polling error in order for Trump to lose. And I just don't think that's likely. The real contest here is New Hampshire. And to that point, Nathaniel, we're going to stay with you. Predict It puts Nikki Haley's odds of winning the New Hampshire primary at 50%.

at 15%. Are you buying? Are you selling? Are you holding? That's an interesting one. I might...

by that a little bit. It's a tough call. But, you know, 15% is pretty low and Trump is leading in New Hampshire polls, I think, by 18 percentage points the last time I checked. I don't know. That's not super dominant. And, like, I'm envisioning a situation, like, Iowa can really scramble things, right? If Nikki Haley finishes second in Iowa...

Like, she's going to get a boost probably going into New Hampshire. There could be, you know, there may be a lot of, like, independents in New Hampshire who are going to turn out and vote for Nikki Haley. I just, I think that it's more unpredictable than a 15% chance implies. Like, I think that...

Like that implies that like Trump is almost as certain to win New Hampshire as in Iowa. I guess not quite, but like, you know, and I just don't, I think there's some clear differentiation there. All right. So we're buying Nikki Haley at 15%. Leah, do you agree? I would hold. All right. I like, I like the differences here. Maybe so. Maybe. I mean, Nikki Haley is growing in the polls in New Hampshire. And if she overperforms in Iowa, we can see her continue to grow. Yeah.

Can she get up to the 40s or 50s? I just don't know. What we have now for our average is that Trump is at 44% in New Hampshire and Haley at 26%. And DeSantis is at 8%. Christie is at 11%. But I'm thinking, like, if Haley were to take some of DeSantis' and Christie's support, she's still probably not going to get there. So a lot would have to happen. So I'd hold. I think 15% is, like, a fair number. But...

It's still a little bit high. All right, Jeff, you're going to side with one or the other? Yeah, I think like Nathaniel, I would buy here only because I do think that there's a reasonable chance that Haley finishes second in Iowa. And if that happens, DeSantis is essentially dead in this campaign. And he could even drop out in that situation. And while in a lot of states, I think that that would actually help Trump more because of second choice among DeSantis voters tending to be

Yeah.

And so maybe some of his supporters – and it's just he doesn't have as big a block of support in New Hampshire, and so I think it's tougher to say that they're like a very Trumpy segment of the electorate there.

And lastly, there could be some polling error because it's a presidential primary and presidential primaries have more polling error than general elections by some distance. So I just think that there's just more opportunity, more possibility that Haley could get the scenario where she could win. Yeah, I'm writing a story right now actually looking at –

second choice polls. So like, you know, Trump supporters, who's their second choice for president? Christie supporters, who's their second choice? And Christie supporters, like a majority of them say that Haley is their second choice. And so I could, you see a situation, even if Christie doesn't drop out, but like where people are like, okay, the train to get on is Nikki Haley. They kind of abandoned him en masse. I think DeSantis is interesting because actually,

the polls disagree, at least the polls of New Hampshire disagree about who his second choices are. So there was one poll back in November that said that Trump was the preferred second choice of DeSantis supporters in New Hampshire, but then there was another that said that Haley was. And I think there's a case to be made that maybe in New Hampshire, it's a unique enough electorate that maybe they would go for Haley, whereas nationally, I think that DeSantis supporters are more Trumpy. And so, yeah, if DeSantis were to drop out, that maybe helps Haley. I just think there are paths for her that are

kind of add up to more than a 15% chance. That said, if I were just straight up picking who do I think will win, I think it is more likely that Trump would win than Haley.

It's interesting. I think unless the primary becomes truly competitive relatively quickly between Haley and Trump, that Chris Christie stays in the race the longest, right? Because he has no relationship to keep with Donald Trump at this point. He'll stick around until June just to keep punching Trump to make his... I mean, he's in the race to make a point. And so unless he actually thinks that

Nikki Haley will make a difference, then he just sticks around to punch Trump. And quite frankly, does Nikki Haley even care about Chris Christie's endorsement at this point? Like his favorability rating with Republicans is in the basement. And so almost no matter what, maybe at this point, Chris Christie hangs around just to sort of nip at Trump's heels for the next five months. Yeah, I'm not sure that Haley would want an actual public endorsement from Chris Christie, but she would probably take his voters. Yeah.

Yeah, that's true. Well, right. If you dropped out before New Hampshire. OK, we're going to wrap up the Republican primary because we have some other things to get to. But rapid fire before we do. Polly Market currently gives Donald Trump a 71 percent chance of winning every state in the Republican primary.

Are we, and we'll start with you, Leah, this time, buying, selling, or holding Trump winning every state at a 71% chance?

I'm going to buy. I'm like kind of afraid that I'm forgetting a state that's like or like a territory that's like actually. Remember when Michael Bloomberg won Guam? You know, you never know. That's the thing. I'm like thinking about the territories and I'm like, I don't know what the polling is there. But I would buy. Buy. OK, that is underestimating the likelihood that Trump wins every state. Jeff? Yeah, I agree. I would buy because I think New Hampshire might be there's a good chance it's his most difficult state.

And if that's the case and he wins that, then he'll win everything. Now, I would be curious if there's like.

Is it every state or is it every contest? And, you know, there's some like little wrinkles. There's a primary and a caucus in Nevada. And so maybe. Yeah, right. Exactly. He's not going to win the Nevada primary. He's not on the ballot in the Nevada primary. So does does Nikki Haley winning the primary there trip that up? But every delegate allocating contest, there's a better than 70 percent chance, basically. Yeah. By 71 percent. OK, so.

Nathaniel? I don't know. I would hold. I agree with Jeffrey that New Hampshire is the best or the Trump's biggest potential vulnerability. But I don't know. I mean, to be consistent with my answer before, I would say that Haley has maybe a 25% chance to win in New Hampshire, which and, you know, but then you have to also consider the possibility that like maybe something weird happens in some other state. Yeah.

And so that leaves you with, yeah, maybe like roughly a 70% chance that Trump wins every state. I think that sounds right to me. Okay, we are going to move on to the Democratic primary.

All right, turning to the Democratic side, according to PolyMarket, there is a 78% chance that Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee. Let's start with you, Nathaniel, because you're making the best facial expressions right now.

Thanks, Galen. Are you buying, selling, or holding? I am obviously buying this one. Like, Joe Biden is almost certainly going to be the Democratic nominee. Like, something would have to happen medically, I think, in order for that to not be the case. And like...

I mean, also, like, if he gets nominated at the convention and then something happens medically, does that still count? Like, or does it have to be, like, November 5th or whatever election day is that this pays out? I don't know. But anyway, regardless, we're talking a very low probability event of, you know, him having a terrible accident befalling him or something like that. But in terms of the traditional way of winning and losing nominations, he is not going to lose it.

All right. That's an easy buy from Nathaniel. Jeff? Yeah, I agree with Nathaniel. No one is going to beat Biden for the Democratic nomination, so it takes something else to have happen. Sort of with that in mind, is it like a serious health crisis? Did something happen to him? And for what it's worth, a generic 81-year-old per the Social Security Administration's actuarial tables has

has a 93% chance of living another full year. God bless the data, Jeff. I love it. And for what it's worth, Biden is not a generic 81-year-old. He is president of the United States and has the best possible health care at his beck and call. And

There are some thoughts that he might have a healthier lifestyle than a lot of people anyway. He doesn't drink exercises of Rehoboth, right? So my thought is that he's probably got a smaller chance than that of passing away. And that's – so his chances of living are much higher than 78 percent. So you're saying would you – you would buy?

up until, what are we saying here, like 96%, something like that, even higher? 95% is probably a fair place to end up.

And Leah, are you in agreement on all of this? I am. And I just want to point out that, like, really, this is less a conversation of whether Joe Biden becomes the Democratic nominee than like a medical diagnosis conversation among like four political reporters trying to figure out if he like what his lifespan is going to be, which I think is kind of dark, but also probably the right way to approach the question.

So, yes, I would buy. Oh, it's macabre. There's no doubt. Yeah. Jeff, I want to plug the fact that you have an article coming out at the end of this week looking at what would happen if either Biden or Trump dropped out or if something were to happen to them actuarially. Is that like a...

Is that the word that I should use to describe? If they would have died. Yes, if they died. Death. Let's not be afraid of the word. It's not Voldemort, as to quote Chris Christie and J.K. Rowling. New resolution for 2024, not being afraid of death. But Jeff, you do a really comprehensive look at what would happen in the event of something like we're discussing. What are your main takeaways about how things could be shaken up throughout this coming year?

Well, I do think it would obviously take something very significant to take Biden out of the race. But with that obvious caveat, a lot depends on the timing.

as to sort of how that would affect anything that involves sort of succeeding or replacing Biden. If it were to happen tomorrow, there might be time for some candidates who want to get into the race to file for some states that vote later in the process. But they are definitely running out of time. At the end of this week,

31 of the 57 contests of the Democratic side will have seen their candidate filing deadline if they have one pass. So...

The point is that like if this were to proceed another month or so, there would be very few states where you could get on the ballot and actually win delegates. But in all this, on the Biden side of the conversation, a lot of it comes back to Kamala Harris. I mean she's the vice president for a reason. If something – if Biden like had to leave office, death or some sort of thing happened and he relinquished the presidency, like –

Harris is president. And, you know, it would be a crisis of sorts. And she would be sort of the port in the storm, right? For Democrats, because that's the VP's job, basically. The one constitutional duty of the vice president is to be there if something happens to the president. So that, at least on the Democratic side, looms. Now, obviously, I know that there are

There are tons of murmurings about Harris' potential electoral strength, et cetera, et cetera. And so is there a world where someone else tries to mount a campaign if something were to happen to Biden? It's possible, but again, a lot of this depends on the timing.

And the later you go, the more likely that if something happened, Harris would be the most obvious alternative. And for Trump, of course, there is a competitive primary on the Republican side. So up until someone is actually nominated, presumably, if anything were to happen to Trump, just somebody else who's already been competing in the primary would still have delegates or whatever still be on the ballot. What about post-nomination? Do the parties get to chart their own way and just

fill in whatever candidate they want after the nominating process? So if something happens after the conventions, it also sort of depends on how far after the conventions something were to happen. At the end of the day, like on the Democratic side, the Democratic National Committee would vote to figure out a new nominee. And almost, you know, again, Harris seems pretty likely to be the person in that situation. Whereas, you know, for Republicans like the RNC, you know,

would deal with this. But obviously, the closer you get to actual election day, that gets more complicated by different states' rules regarding who goes on the ballot, rules regarding what electoral college electors are supposed to do. If someone dies a week before the election or something like that happens,

then you could get into sort of a mess with the state by state because certain states say you have to vote for the person on the ballot. The later this goes on, if you had something terrible happen,

The messier it gets. And, you know, we've been actually the country's been pretty lucky that something like this hasn't happened. The one case of someone dying after the election, but before the Electoral College met was Horace Greeley, who was the essentially the Democratic nominee in 1872. It's a little bit more complicated than that. He was a liberal Republican and the Democrats sort of threw their hands up and nominated him. But anyway, he died before the Electoral College met. And so his Electoral College votes went to a whole bunch of different candidates, including

And then in 1912, actually, the vice president for William Howard Taft, whose name is suddenly escaping me, the sitting vice president who was on the ticket as the VP nominee, he died and his electoral votes went to a replacement candidate. But it didn't really matter because Taft had finished third actually in that race because of Teddy Roosevelt with Woodrow Wilson winning. So both times that something like that has happened –

It was largely academic because it happened to a losing candidate's ticket. All right. Well, let's rewind a little bit back to the conventions. Here's maybe an interesting one. According to PolyMarket, there is a 59% chance that the Republican nominee's running mate will be a woman. 59% chance. Leah, are we buying, selling, or holding? I think I would...

hold herself. Like, I know the conventional wisdom is like, you got to balance the ticket. But, you know, we've had, what, 40, I think 49 vice presidents, more vice presidents than presidents. And one has been a woman. So, you know, like statistically, not the greatest odds. Part of the reason the conventional wisdom would be that he would choose a woman is that, like, Kristi Noem is somebody who has been standing out, but like,

I don't know. Like Trump is going to choose somebody who he thinks feels vice presidential. And I think there's more of a template for men being vice presidential than there has been for women. So I can imagine him casting a man for that role. So I think it's there's a significant chance, but 59 seems a little high.

All right, Nathaniel, 59% chance that the Republican running mate is a woman. I'm buying that. Leah, you're too cynical. I'm very cynical. I think, or maybe it's cynical to think that he's just going to pick somebody entirely based on identity politics. But no, I think, I mean, look, I am on record and one of our

politics Slack chats as saying that like, I'm quite convinced it's going to be Kristi Noem, assuming Trump is the nominee, which I guess maybe that's the wrinkle is that like, maybe there's a world in which Haley is the nominee and then she picks a man. I think Kristi Noem is like basically the ideal vice presidential pick for Trump. I might say her alone has over 50% chance, frankly. But I just think that like, what was it, 59%

If you literally just picked at random is 50-50, and I think that 59% is not that far away from 50-50, and I think it's quite likely to be weighted on the side of picking a woman or a person of color, but there are more options for women. So according to PredictIt, the likelihood alone that Kristi Noem is the Republican nominee, does anyone want to guess?

No. Leah, no. 25. It is 25%. Did you see this, Nathaniel? Yes, he saw it. No, I didn't. All right, yes. It is 25% chance that Christy know him. I swear on this copy of the Victory Lab that I did not see the predicted cycle for this. Swear I got the copy of the Victory Lab. One of our Bibles. All right, Jeff, where do you come down on all of this?

I would probably hold. I do think it is more likely than not, but how much more likely is really hard for me to say. Besides Noam, you know, there's like at least Stefanik. I guess there's even a world where Nikki Haley gets talked about. But I think that there are enough people in Trump's orbit who would be opposed to that, that that seems unlikely. Also, I'm not sure he'd want to pick somebody who's criticized him on the campaign trail. But, you know, there are people out there who are notable women Republicans who would make interesting VP decisions.

So I think it's somewhat more likely than not. So I'm going to go with hold. Also, by the way, just so I get it in there, James Sherman was the vice president who died a few days before the election in 1912.

I was like, I can't remember his name. And the inability to remember his name on the spot there was frustrating to me. Thank goodness. Anyway, just putting it out there. Your credibility is shattered. All right. This is an interesting one. PolyMarkets has a market for this. It says there's a 14% chance that at least 10% of the popular vote in 2024 goes to third-party candidates. Not one third-party candidate in particular, but just that 10% of the popular vote goes

goes to third party candidates. Jeff, 14% buys a hold. I'm going to hold. I think this is actually a reasonable probability in that it's something that is pretty rare. I looked back. If you look at all the presidential elections after the Civil War, there have been 39 of them.

And in six of them, the Democrat and the Republican added up to less than 90%. 1996 is really close and I think depends on how you count right ends. But if you count right ends, per Dave Leip's U.S. Presidential Atlas, it's just a hair over 10% for third party and right ends. So... What percentage is that? Six out of 39? Six out of 39 is about 15%. Ooh! Look at that! So I think it's a reasonable probability. And with that in mind, like...

I also think we do have two candidates who are going to have underwater favorability. And so it is possible. I will note that we had that situation in 2016, and they only managed to get to 6%. So I don't think it's likely, but I do think that this is a reasonable probability. Leah? He convinced me. Hold. He's going to be my advisor for buying, selling, holding. Yeah.

Nathaniel? Yeah, no, I agree. I think Jeffrey made a very compelling argument I will also hold. Jeff, you did a really good job here because Nathaniel is always a downer on third-party candidates. I mean, I am too, to be clear. Well, 14% is not very high. Yeah, exactly. Jeffrey and I are in sync on this. I'm buying up until 20%. Because 14% would be...

if you plucked an election from obscurity, it would be like 15% or whatever, like you said. But I think that the components are there to make it, as you mentioned yourself, Jeff, to make it more likely that folks will vote third party. I mean, there's just so much pessimism and such a lack of enthusiasm for the two candidates running. I know the whole campaign has yet to happen. And I know that most people are going to ultimately see this as a choice between

You know, even if they don't like them, you know, two evils, they'll choose one of them. But I do wonder, and my curiosity comes down to not RFK Jr. and not Joe Manchin and not Cornel West, but that as we motor along and as it becomes clear, it could become clear in just two weeks, that Trump is the Republican nominee and Biden is the Democratic nominee.

that somebody else potentially wades in who isn't one of the people already running who has some kind of appeal. I mean, just to name one, according to BetUS, Mark Cuban has a 2% chance of winning the 2024 election. I mean, I kid, but I don't know. I think there's an opening. Where's Ross Perot? He got 19%.

I do think the components of having two major party nominees who people are very dissatisfied with, that's a real thing that we need to keep in mind with this. At the same time, things are very polarized. And I do think that the stakes in this election will be very high and that that will probably push most people toward the two candidates who have a chance of winning. It's sort of like...

Things are more polarized now than they once were. At the same time, we might have candidates that people aren't happy with more than they once were.

And sort of like how much do they sort of deflect each other, I guess? Right. So which is to say you have one indicator pointing in one direction saying that it would be likelier than the replacement level election, which is 15% chance. Another pointing in the opposite direction. So they would cancel themselves out and you would get to that 14% chance that we are buying, selling or holding. Okay. All right. I think, you know, I'm like relatively convinced, but some...

Who knows? Okay, we're going to do rapid fire here with the biggest events of the year because I don't think there's actually that much we can say about them at this point slash we're going to be talking about them for the next 11 months anyway. So according to Predict It,

there's a 41% chance that Donald Trump wins the 2024 election. And according to PredictIt, there's a 40% chance that Joe Biden wins the 2024 election. There are other betting markets as well. So Smarkets says that there's a 39% chance that Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, while Smarkets says there's a 31% chance that Joe Biden wins the 2024 election. In all of these, you see that

they think there's a high chance that somebody who's not one of these two people wins the 2024 election. I guess the Scottish team's

are intrigued by the actuarial possibilities in this election or the third party possibilities in this election, which we've already sort of squashed, I think, largely on this podcast. So maybe we don't have to talk about those. We're basically telling people to go buy. Buy all of these is what you're saying. Buy both Biden and Trump at 40% on Predict It. Yep.

Yeah, sure. If you believe the race is like 50-50 and that these two are like 97, 98% likely to be, one of them is going to be the winner and there's like a 2%, 3% chance of something else happening that would lead the two of them to not be in that position, then sure, buy on both. Smarkets also looks at the House and Senate. So Smarkets gives a 63% chance that Democrats win the House. Are you buying, selling, or holding that one?

Sell. Sell. Sell. OK. I don't think there's a compelling reason to think either party is favored in the House right now. Yeah, that's a quit betting one. Just don't don't even don't even try with that one. It's too it's too unpredictable. Just step away. And Republicans winning the Senate's market gives that an 80 percent chance.

Seems a little high to me. Republicans have the advantage given the map. I mean, it's all of these Democrats who overperformed in the class of 2018 with the 2018 wave. It's going to be really tough year for Democrats. But 80 percent, like there's a lot that still needs to happen. We still don't know who the nominees are. I wouldn't I wouldn't do that.

Interesting. I would probably hold because Republicans are basically certain to flip West Virginia now. They were already very likely to, but with Joe Manchin having retired, there's no longer any probability that Democrats can win that seat. So that puts Republicans at 50. So then they might already be there if a Republican wins the presidency, but

Yeah. So, I mean, for me, I think 80% even might be low. But, you know, if they want the outright majority, and actually it's a good question if there's like a footnote, win the Senate. Does that mean outright? 51? They also have opportunities in Ohio. Yeah. I mean, you know, Ohio and Montana loom. And not to mention that there'll be other states that, you know, depending on how the presidential race is going, I mean –

States like Nevada and Wisconsin and maybe a state like Pennsylvania could be interesting for Republicans to potentially flip. So I think 80% at this early point is fair.

You can make a similar case for Democrats. Right now, we're basically looking at a 50-50 Senate with the Joe Manchin seat most likely flipping. And I guess where Republicans have the advantage is the toss-up states are in Republican states. For them to be toss-ups would frankly be a win for Democrats. Exactly. If they're actually toss-ups by November. Yeah. Yeah, which is why I would say Republicans are favored also. I just, I don't know.

I don't know if I'd go with 80. That's all. There are some other interesting betting markets that we're not going to have time to get into here, but maybe we will delve in another day. Like,

the likelihood of Biden being impeached. Is that impeached and removed or just impeached? Just impeached. And frankly, this, I don't think I'm allowed to give advice. So I'm not going to say what betting market this is currently available at, but it's 17%. I think I am buying Biden impeached at 17%. Yeah. Yeah. Have you seen our politics lately? Yeah.

There's also a poly market says there's a 66 percent chance that another state court will disqualify Trump from the ballot this month, January. There's all kinds of betting markets that you can engage in when it comes to politics. And really have to dig on Supreme Court, state Supreme Court rulings or like proceedings like go into like the docket. Who is meeting this month and how quickly can they get a decision out?

Jeff, I'm going to take a wild guess and say that the Scottish teams might be making more emotional decisions than you're suggesting with some of these betting markets. Well, that's not a very good way to bet, guys. If you are a Scottish team with a gambling problem, please call 1-800. Please email podcasts at 538.com.

And for the record, like there's like a reason why, like I think people who follow this stuff closely, like just don't bet on this stuff also, because like we've seen so many weird things happen. Also that we're not compromised in our analysis. That's the other thing. That is not me saying I'm against anything or for anything. I'm just saying. I'll say it.

Wait, Nathaniel was just about to make an admission. Is it that you bet on the political market? No, it's that I'm judging people who do. I don't bet on politics, kids.

It's not a game. If Nathaniel's judging, then I feel like he just opened the door for me to judge because he's significantly nicer than I am. I mean, I don't think we should be betting on politics. In fact, we're not allowed to. But why can't other people? I mean, there's way dumber ways to lose your money in America. That's a great argument. Or in Scotland. That's right. Exactly. That's not a good argument. Yes.

Well, this is only a moderately dumb way to lose your money. I would rather lose my money on like a pair of jeans that's on sale that I'm not sure is going to fit. But like I take the risk because they are that on sale. You know, that's how I want to lose my money personally. Fair enough. With that, let's move on to 2024 wildcards.

All right, now that we have spent the first part of this podcast reluctantly, hypothetically betting on political markets, let's talk about some of the unknown unknowns for which there aren't really any markets to play this game with.

And one of the biggest ones is just what issues are going to motivate voters. I think at the outset, we can guess that things like the economy, the trajectory, whether it's improving or declining, will play a significant role in the election. That's almost a known known. But what about some of the issues that it's unclear the role that they will play in the election at this point? Leah, why don't you kick us off?

I think the number one question right now is what happens with Israel and Gaza, because that is the big moment for right now. I don't know if we'll feel the same way in a few months, but right now that's kind of like the big event that's happening.

hovering over us? And, you know, what does this look like in three months or six months? And it's less about public opinion on it, but like what actually happens in Israel and in Gaza and how much longer is this conflict extended by and what happens in the coming months? I think that's my biggest question. Interesting. All right. Sort of the way I would look at it is anything regarding sort of the

the conflict between Israel and Hamas and Gaza and the Middle East in general, and then also the conflict in Ukraine. To me, those issues, it's like on the one hand, the Ukraine conflict, I would say, unifies Democrats and splits Republicans more. And then conversely, the Israel-Hamas conflict tends to split Democrats more and unify Republicans more. So you have, they're sort of competing. And right now,

the Israel conflict is more on the front page than Ukraine but that doesn't mean that that's going to be that way in a you know month or two or six months from now or what have you so to me I think just generally presidents overseeing you know conflicts that involve the U.S to any extent now clearly neither of these involve like boots on the ground for the U.S really um so that's that's a significant difference but I

For someone like Trump, who has tended to say, look, I'll keep the peace. I, you know, avoid foreign conflicts and et cetera, et cetera. That if the U.S. is sort of seen as being involved even peripherally in these two conflicts all the way to November, that that's probably good for Trump, actually. I just think that it makes things seem more unstable, actually.

And so like if you're looking for just marginal things that could affect the electorate in ways that help one candidate or the other, that's just sort of how I look at it. Not having any idea just how long some of this is going to carry on. Yeah. I mean, we often question on this podcast the degree to which foreign policy affects vote choice anyway. I'm looking at some recent polling from the AP. The

The AP asks, thinking about the 2024 presidential election, how important do you think the outcome of the election will be for each of the following? And it talks about all kinds of issues, the economy, democracy in the United States, immigration, healthcare.

Foreign policy comes in at 60%, which is not the highest, but it's not low either. So for example, it's higher than crime or gun policy, but quite a bit lower than, say, the economy, which is at 75%, or say, the future of US democracy, which is 67%.

I think in some ways it's the least the reason why I'm focused on that is that it's the least predictable. Like we know that democracy will be a concern throughout the rest of the year. We don't know kind of like how big of a concern we know the economy is going to be a concern. And, you know, there are. But so far we have avoided a recession. So if we're kind of still in this kind of middling point where Biden's saying that the economy is.

you know, on the right track and Trump is saying it's on the wrong track. We're just kind of doing more of the same. Whereas with global conflict, I just feel like there's more room for change and more room for movement.

I think that's a really good point, Leah, in that the variability is there could be a full-blown war in the Middle East by November 2024, or there could be peace, and we're not even talking about this in the final months of the campaign, and there's in some ways no way of knowing at this point which one. Exactly.

Nathaniel, wildcard issues in 2024. Well, I'll give the fun answer and be like, well, you know, in January 2020, we had no idea that a global pandemic was coming. I don't think a global pandemic will happen in 2024. I sure hope not. Don't say it. You know, weirder stuff has happened.

But I'll give the boring answer, which I think is just the economy. Like, during the course of the campaign, you know, there's a weekly news cycle about the issue du jour, and I think most of those really don't move the needle that much. I think the economy is one of the few issues that actually can affect, like, the overall political environment, which I think is one of the more important things for determining who wins elections. And I think that we just don't know, like...

There is some thought that if the economy continues to improve, the memories of the high inflation during the early years of the Biden administration will have faded and people will be giving Biden more credit for the economic recovery. There's also still a possibility of a recession or some other exogenous shock to the economy. So I think those are the kinds of things that I think could significantly impact Biden.

the the race in the national environment and like Biden's standing in particular in a way that would could either like I agree that the race is basically a toss-up right now and I think if like the economy were to collapse obviously like that would be a death blow to Biden's chances whereas I think that if the economy if perceptions the economy improved his approval rating like a lot of the downward pressure that's currently on his approval rating right now would come off and and he would be able to be seen a little more competently I guess

I agree that if the economy tanks, that Biden's chances tank as well. But I'm not sure if the economy gets better if Biden's chances improve significantly just because people are responding to the economy in different ways. They're responding to different metrics in different ways. Yeah. I mean, in some ways, this will be an interesting test. Like if the economy improves significantly throughout the year and Joe Biden loses, then

Have we just come to the conclusion that these things are not as tethered as they once were? I mean, I think we've already come to the conclusion that they're they are less tethered than they once were, but it's unclear to what degree.

I specifically, I think at least I specifically said perceptions of the economy. I think that's what matters rather than the actual economy. Yeah. It's a retrospective economic perceptions over the course of Biden's time in office. Like, you know, the shorter way of putting that is like the Ronald Reagan, are you better off than you were four years ago kind of thing. And polling generally shows that people do not feel they are. How much that actually impacts people emotionally.

will depend on, you know, part on their partisanship. We know a lot about economic perceptions now as people view it through their partisan lens. You know, it's like the day Trump left office, Republicans became

Much less positive about the economy, for instance. I mean, and that is true for Democrats to some extent, too, the other direction. You know, a lot of what is going to happen in the next few months for this election is about at the margins and what can move things at the margins. And the economy is almost certainly one of the most important things that can move things at the margins. Nothing is going to create landslide conditions or something like that in a country as divided as ours. But...

and polarized as ours. But it's do people feel better about the economy in June or something than they have in the last year or two? That's probably good for Biden. How good? Does it win the election? Maybe not, but at least would make that seem somewhat more likely than it currently does. Jeff, is there a wildcard issue that you want to shout out? Well, we haven't mentioned abortion.

And I don't think that's a wild card, though, because we know that it's going to continue to be a thing. It was a thing in the 2022 midterms. I think it remains an issue that will be important for...

So the question of, all right, we have two candidates that people aren't necessarily happy with and that there's a substantial portion of the electorate that may have an unfavorable view of both candidates. Is that enough to help Biden because people tend to be somewhat more pro-choice or at least support abortion rights to some extent?

And does that work out for him? And he gets some people who somewhat disapprove of him to vote for him, sort of like Democrats did better among somewhat disapprovers in the midterm election, which was highly unusual because usually those voters, if they disapprove of the president to any extent, they break more for the out party. So that's a big question for me.

I mean the biggest wild card is probably just what happens to Trump with his criminal issues and the felony charges he faces and his various trials and whatnot and how people respond to that. Because if people respond to it how they have said in some polls, like if Trump actually were convicted of something –

That might be at least a short-term win for Biden politically. I guess my question is the longevity of that. Does that have sort of legs over the course of a campaign? If something were to happen in, I don't know, July or August or what have you, would that carry all the way to November? And I don't know.

I'll also add in here the issue of immigration. I think we're at a unique point here on the issue, which is, well, one, currently the Senate is negotiating over whether or not to change immigration laws and asylum laws in the country.

without maybe even necessarily providing a pathway to citizenship for DACA recipients or things like that. So I think clearly the dynamic in the country has already changed if Democrats realize they're sort of on the back foot and they have to make concessions to Republicans. And it seems, or at least that it seems likely that Democrats are willing to make concessions

concessions to Republicans right now beyond just we're going to spend more for border security, but that will actually change the laws. I think a big part of this is that increasingly Democratic mayors and governors are complaining that things are out of control. And so it's become...

something of a bipartisan consensus almost that the country isn't handling immigration and the asylum system well. And usually we see sort of number like polling numbers move against or for something when there is a bipartisan consensus. And increasingly, we're seeing that also immigration of all the non-economic issues

that Gallup asks about for most important issues facing the country. Immigration is always number one out of the non-economic issues. Today, 15% of Americans say that it's the number one issue facing the country, whereas 33% of Americans say that it's the economy. So it's both high salience, high for Americans just across months,

highly relevant because we're seeing what's happening on the border every day in the news and also becoming bipartisan. So does this get resolved in the first quarter or so of the year in a way where it sort of deflates the tension and the pressure?

or does the Senate, like, isn't able to come to some sort of conclusion or compromise that can pass the House, and this becomes an issue that drags on throughout the entire election year. For me, that's a big wild card. And on the topic of Congress and whether or not it will pass legislation in 2024, I think it broke records for not passing legislation in 2023. Some of the remaining questions I have on here are about congressional dysfunction and shutdowns, October surprises,

threats to democracy, you know, we're two days away from the third anniversary of January 6th.

Are there any other things that we should mention as we conclude our look at the year ahead that we are thinking about in our coverage or that will shape the election? No, I just want to reiterate that Jeff's point about what happens with Trump and his trials being kind of the biggest wild card, because there's not quite as much to say about it. But I do think that is the question of 2024. And there's probably at the same time the nature of Trump's candidacy.

You know, it does feel like the conversations around, I don't know, the future of the country and democracy and all these things are going to end up – given what happened on January 6th, 2021. You know, that's going to be there. Now, I will say that that's a much more motivating issue for Democrats sort of in the way that immigration has tended to be a much more motivating issue for Republicans. But to your point, Galen, if immigration is sort of entering a more –

or at least is at least edging that way, that could change sort of how we look at immigration. But I do think it's also important to note that voters can hold more than one thing in their head and that a lot of times,

For example, an exit poll will ask, oh, what issue is most important to you? And they give them like four options. And people will kind of use that as a post-facto rationalization for whatever they chose and that it's much more complicated in terms of why they decide to vote. Or maybe it's not even that complicated. They're a Democrat. They're a Republican. That's like a fundamental thing. But they'll use an issue as sort of the post-facto. So sometimes it's hard. There's like kind of multidirectional causation here. Yeah.

that's worth keeping in mind. Well, Jeff, on that note, I think 2024 will also require us to keep many things in our heads at the same time. So a good message to end on. Thank you, Leah, Jeff, Nathaniel. Thank you, Galen. Thanks, Galen. Thank you. My name is Galen Druk. Tony Chow is in the control room. Our producers are Shane McKeon and Cameron Chortavian. And our intern is Jayla Everett.

You can get in touch by emailing us at podcast.538.com. You can also, of course, tweet us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple Podcast Store or tell someone about us. Thanks for listening, and we will see you soon.

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