The 538 Podcast Holiday Party 01:07:32

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My like $8 Target tie of Santa fishing for gifts. Nice. It's an American holiday. A reindeer is for whatever reason underwater with scuba gear with a gift that is on Santa's hook. Unclear what's happening, but something. Climate change. That's pretty clear what's happening, John.

Hello and welcome to this end of the year holiday edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Druk. If everything goes to plan, this is our final fresh out of the studio podcast of 2023. During the Christmas and New Year holidays, we're going to air an updated version of the Primaries Project podcast.

Four years ago, we took a hard look at the system that we use to nominate presidential candidates in a three-part series. And it's more relevant than ever as we head into the primaries next month. We also have a new interview with friend of the pod, Julia Azari, updating us on everything that's happened since we originally aired that series. So make sure to check it out next week and on New Year's Day. And we'll be back with regularly scheduled podcasts the first week of January.

But today we are here to do a couple things. First and foremost, we're going to have some fun. Think of this as our on-air podcast holiday party. For the folks who are watching this on video, I should apologize. I am not appropriately dressed. I ran into the office this morning because we had to record an emergency podcast about the Colorado Supreme Court ruling on transvestites.

Trump's ability to remain on the primary ballot there. And so I had to drop all of my extra special plans. However, our panelists today are in more of a festive spirit. So I apologize. So anyway, think of this as our on-air holiday party. We've also got a hard-hitting good or bad use of polling example addressing the thorny subject of Christmas cookies. So do chocolate chip cookies count as Christmas cookies? We'll use the rigorous data-driven approach you know and

love to answer that question. We're also going to take a look back at the year and ask which developments were the most important for understanding next year's biggest political story, which is, of course, the 2024 election. And while we're doing our retrospective, right, that's true. The last time I said that before a presidential election, COVID ended up becoming the biggest story of the year instead of the actual election. So I should be knocking wood right now. And in fact, I am.

While we're doing our retrospective, we're also going to ask, what was the weirdest political moment of 2023? Because it was a seriously weird year. Just look at our podcast feed. In January, we started the year with an episode titled, What the Debt Ceiling and George Santos' Career Have in Common.

Honestly, I don't remember what we said. Maybe that neither of them would last a full year. And to bookend the year, earlier this week, we groped our way around the fact that the most attention-grabbing story in D.C. that week was the release of a sex tape filmed in a Senate hearing room.

How did you get the word grope in there? You know, I try hard, Leah. This is my job. Sorry, continue. And then to finish off the episode and the year, it's Guess What Americans Think Holiday Edition. So you've already heard their voices, but here with me to do it all is Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich. Hey, Nathaniel.

Hey, Galen. Happy holidays. Happy holidays. Also here with us is politics reporter Leah Skarnam. Welcome to the podcast, Leah. Thank you. Happy to be here. Always great to have you. And also here with us is senior elections analyst Jeffrey Skelly. Welcome to the podcast. I love the Santa hat. Hey, you know, happy holidays. Merry Christmas. Merry Christmas.

The whole nine yards. Getting into the spirit of things. I love to see it. Sadly, the only thing I have that's getting me into the spirit is this Rice Krispie treat from Starbucks. It's a rough day. Shame on you, Galen. I assure folks I do, in fact, have fun holiday sweaters. They're just not in the studio with me right now. But with that, should we get started on this Christmas cookie poll? Because it really... Holiday cookie, Galen?

Well, the question asked, do you have a favorite Christmas cookie or favorite cookie for the holidays? You're right. Okay. Earlier this month, Monmouth University released a poll of 803 American adults focused on questions about the holidays. For example, 79% of Americans say they are on Santa's nice list.

Interestingly enough, one question in particular caught our attention. They asked respondents, do you have a favorite Christmas cookie or favorite cookie for the holidays? And 47% said yes. And then they asked, if yes, what is it? Respondents were not given any options. They were free to name whatever they like.

And the results went like this. 32% said frosted sugar cookies are their favorite. 12% said gingerbread. 11% said chocolate chip. 6% snickerdoodles. 4% butter cookies. And it goes on down, including 2% who said brownies, which...

okay, is a brownie a cookie? We can have that debate. 13% said other varieties. Is a hot dog a sandwich? This is significantly easier to answer. This sparked some controversy about whether respondents were primed to say sugar cookies, because that's what most people think of when they think of a Christmas cookie in the first place. And then also whether a chocolate chip cookie is a Christmas cookie and whether a brownie is also a Christmas cookie. So

So first things first, Nathaniel, I know you had the most thoughts about this poll. Is this a good or bad use of polling? I'm not sure that's true. I think there are a lot of thoughts about this poll on this panel. But no, sorry. Sorry, Monmouth. You're a great pollster, but this is a bad use of polling, I think.

Okay, first of all, like, sugar frosted cookies, they're not good. They're not good, people. Let's stop pretending that they're good. Oh, my God. Hold on. Is this the pulse gingerbread? We haven't even started yet. We haven't...

never, never, never judged polls based on whether we personally like the results that they give us. And we are not starting now. Nathaniel, I expect more from you. Anything is possible. This partisan pro anti-sugar cookie hackery is unacceptable on this rigorous podcast. Okay. All right. But look, seriously though, like I appreciate the nature of the question being open-ended.

But I do think that like when somebody says, OK, what is your favorite Christmas cookie? You do naturally think about like those like frosted cookies or like maybe you think of gingerbread. But like you think about like, you know, the things that you ice the like, you know, like the candy cane shapes that you use cookie cutters and stuff for.

That's what I would say, probably, even though I don't really like them. But like if I had known that like chocolate chip was an option, I would choose chocolate chip because chocolate chip cookies are delicious. It's clearly a better cookie. It's clearly a superior cookie. And so like I think you would get very different answers if you had given a list of cookies versus doing this open ended thing, because I do think asking Christmas cookies specifically primes people to say certain types of cookies, even if they don't actually like think they're delicious.

So that's my complaint with this poll. That it primed respondents too much to just answer, what's my favorite Christmas cookie? Well, a Christmas cookie. Right. Because you're suggesting there's only really one kind of Christmas cookie. I think there are two. I think gingerbread and then the frosted sugar cookies, which gingerbread are much better in my opinion.

I mean, people have to say that on this. Oh, no, it's 100 percent true. People also absolutely true. Snickerdoodles, German spiced cookies. Three percent of respondents. I do think Snickerdoodles can be a Christmas cookie. They're Christmas adjacent. But, you know, like my wife likes to make one with kind of like the Hershey's peppermint kisses. Yeah. And so you're really Christmasifying it, if you will. Not a word, but sure. OK, so.

Other thoughts on whether this was a good or bad use of polling? Leah, you always really get right to the heart of the matter here. I'm curious where you come down on this Christmas cookie quandary. I think we need to put away the narrative that we have figured out in our own minds and follow the data. And the data says sugar frosted.

That's what it says. And you might be looking at the national environment and like Biden's approval rating and whatever. And you're like, no, it's actually chocolate chip cookies. But no, this is what the data says. This is what the people want. If you just got out in real America more often, you'd realize that sugar cookies, parentheses frosted, are by far the most popular. And...

So I do think this is what real America wants. One, frosting is delicious. We are thinking about cookies on Christmas as a vehicle for frosting. All right? It's a vessel for frosting. That is what we do on Christmas is we eat frosting cookies. That is what we do as Jews on Christmas. We really just use –

As somebody who just started celebrating Christmas when I met my husband, this has been one of my favorite parts of Christmas has been making frosting and then frosting cookies. And just because you don't like them doesn't mean that that's not the answer. And it's also like it's your favorite Christmas cookie because you really only have them around Christmas. So I think it makes sense. That's fine. There's a reason for that. Because they suck. Okay.

Okay, what other things do you... Let's... I think this seems like a personal problem here, Nathaniel. Do you like... What kinds of... What's your least favorite dessert? My least favorite dessert? Like fruit. But anyway. I mean, I fear that we're just getting... I fear that we're just getting some hyper-partisan analysis here from Nathaniel. When it comes to actually answering this question, I think that...

this, do you have a favorite Christmas or holiday cookie as the first question? Yes or no. Only half of Americans even do. So like we're really narrowing down the pool of folks that we're talking to. And so the fact that about a third of people who have a favorite holiday cookie, it's a sugar cookie. I don't know. That doesn't strain credulity to me. And that from there on, you know, about 10% or less like gingerbread, chocolate chips, Snickers, like

I mean, come on, have you ever eaten a chocolate chip cookie around the holidays? If you have, then why not include it in this poll? And leaving it open-ended allowed folks to speak their own truth, to talk about their own holiday traditions without the sort of strict parameters of some pollster in Washington, D.C., or this is Monmouth, New Jersey, telling Americans that,

The ways that they can celebrate the holiday. An East Coast elite pollster telling Americans there's only one way or there's only five ways of living their truth around the holidays. So I have a handful of thoughts.

One is that I do think gingerbread cookies can't have frosting, so that seems like a troubling problem here. Second, and more seriously to the point about polling, Monmouth likes to ask their Republican primary poll in two forms, one that is open-ended and one that has a list of candidates. Now, I think making a list of Republican presidential candidates of note is probably far easier than making a list of potential cookie options, right?

However, with the open-ended, there is a risk that someone will be like, shoot, I have no idea. Chocolate chip cookies, sure. And so if you're trying to look for maybe a specific Christmas time answers, perhaps a list is a better way of reading out a list of possibilities is a better way of doing it. I'm just – just a thought there.

And then third, I do wonder if there is a form of this question they could have asked and done it open-ended because I think it would have been a broader form, which is what is your favorite holiday treat? Could you have people answering candy canes or, I don't know, mulled wine? Like it could have been some sort of like interesting wider variety here or something. And I don't know if it would have been a better form of the question, but it was just the thought.

Yeah, I think I like that question wording. Here's a question. When you have a polling question like this, and 47% of Americans say that they do have a favorite Christmas cookie, and then 2% say, yes, I have a favorite Christmas cookie, it's brownies, which is objectively not a cookie.

Do you remove that? Do you put those people with the 53% who say that they don't have a favorite? You say, okay, you thought you had a favorite cookie. You clearly don't because the thing that you responded is not within the realm of the question. We're removing you from the pool. So if you say, you know, who would you like to be the Republican nominee for president? And you say, Shirley Temple, the pollster says, okay, well, Shirley Temple is...

not alive and can't be president. So we're putting you back into the pool of people who say they don't know. I don't know where Shirley Temple came from. I'm really sorry. But like, I do wonder about that. I'm not sure pollsters, I'm not sure pollsters want to be put in the position where they're judging the answers that that is a, and perhaps is another reason why you should just have a list to begin with so that you don't have, I mean, now they have a huge like other category, right? I think like 13% said other.

Uh, so perhaps Shirley Temple falls into other. The one thing I liked from this poll. So other includes something includes things like quote mom's cookies, which that's not a useful answer. That's kind of cute. It's kind of a cute piece of color, but like, yeah, where do you put that?

I think we need to read it less as what is the best objective cookie and more like how do people feel about cookies and Christmas? You know, what do they associate with Christmas? What sparks joy? Because we're actually going with the superior cookie as much as I would –

on this list, probably choose the sugar frosted. There are these like really good Persian cookies that I buy around Christmas that are made of like chickpeas and others with almonds. So like I would probably pick that. But I think if we had a list in another category, this would be – we would be arguing less. I think that that's – and that – I think that's probably an indicator that we should have a list. Yeah.

Also, sugar cookies are delicious. And also, you guys need to stop saying sugar cookies without saying frosted in parentheses next to it. Because I really think that is the difference. No, but like did some people say sugar cookies and some people say like frosted cookies and these things were combined? Like that seems like a problem. Nobody, no other category had that.

Did you know there are cross-tabs on this? Are they including shortbread in that? No, because 4% of Americans chose butter cookies. Okay. So...

You know, I have to say... Shortbread is actually its own. In the numbers, shortbread is 1%. Shortbread is 1%. Okay. But this is another... Oh, I see. This is another problem. I have to say, well, it's hard for me to articulate, and I do think Americans are right that sugar cookies are the best Christmas cookie, but also kind of the only Christmas cookie. I don't learn anything from this poll. Like, of the half of Americans who have a favorite Christmas cookie...

a third of them say sugar frosted. Okay. Like, I don't think I know my countrymen better because of this poll. Like, it just feels like there's no real, like, okay. And then two thirds of Americans say it's something different, but it's so varied amongst those two thirds that there's no kind of, like, if this was a democracy and we had to sort of adjudicate something based on these results, I would say, okay,

Americans don't know what they want. Like they kind of like go away, think about it more, talk amongst yourselves and then come back to me when you have like a better idea. And half of you don't even have a favorite cookie, like get it together.

To that point, Galen, I think something this poll could really benefit from is ranked choice voting because clearly you see a lot of kind of balkanization in what Americans' favorite cookie is or favorite Christmas cookie. And I think that like, for example, like butter cookies and shortbread cookies were counted as two separate categories. And like chocolate is separate from chocolate chip, which is separate from brownies. And like, I feel like those camps are,

could join together, it could join forces and defeat the evil forces of sugar cookies if they were given the chance to do so. But I think there's just, there's too much variation in other kinds of cookies. And yeah, so I think that like just letting people take just one answer is not a definitive answer to people's favorite Christmas cookie if they had to kind of choose head to head. As folks will hear in the primaries project, just because people are voting does not mean the democracy is functioning well.

I will also say that if you look in the crosstabs, there's very little there that clarifies slash adds more understanding to people's cookie preferences because –

Sugar, frosted are the favorite of about a third of men, women, parents, kids, age 55 and up, et cetera. So it just seems like a party standard. What about party, Leah? What about party? It doesn't have party. I blocked. Oh, that's sad. I know. Democrats hate Christmas cookies. That's the takeaway from this poll. Yeah.

The next question is whether you'd go on the naughty or nice list, which does have it separated by party. Republicans hate gingerbread. Democrats hate sugar cookies. Okay, well, don't look at this poll too much because one of the questions was if Santa Claus was a partisan, which party would he belong to? And that is coming in our Guess What Americans Think section of the podcast. I'm closing the cross tabs. Just paying attention.

We will get to that shortly, but for now, let's move on to the most important political developments for Understanding 2024.

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As I mentioned at the top, 2023 was an interesting year. To jog our memories, here are some of the headlines. McCarthy was elected speaker after 14 failed ballots. There was a Chinese spy balloon. ChatGPT4 was launched.

Finland joined NATO. COVID officially ended, according to the CDC. Trump was found liable for sexual assault in the E. Jean Carroll case, and he was also indicted four times. There was debt ceiling, brinkmanship, the Supreme Court ruled affirmative action unconstitutional in colleges, the Supreme Court

also forced Alabama to redraw its district lines to address racial gerrymandering. Lots of workers went on strike, auto workers, writers, actors. Hawaii experienced the deadliest fire in the U.S. in a century. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell froze up. Senator Dianne Feinstein passed away. McCarthy was removed from his speakership. Mike Johnson replaced him.

The House opened an impeachment inquiry into Biden. Biden's approval hit an all-time low of 37% in our averages in December. Israel went to war with Hamas after a terrorist attack. There were the 2023 elections. George Santos became the sixth ever member of the House expelled from the chamber. About a dozen Republicans got into the presidential race. RFK Jr. announced an independent presidential bid. There was a regional banking crisis. I don't know if I got everything. That was a lot. I'm sure some other things happened too.

But my question is, in all of this, what was maybe not the most significant thing to happen in 2023 politically? Because I think that's pretty subjective and maybe too open-ended. But what would you say is the most important thing for understanding the 2024 election, which is what we're going to spend a lot of time talking about in the coming year? And Jeff, I will let you kick us off. Wow. I mean, it's tough because I wrote down

Nine – we had a whole list of things that happened, and I wrote down nine things on the list that I thought actually could matter for 2024. But I think of those, I would tend to maybe think about the Biden approval situation, his job approval rating having sunk to a low of about, what, 37%.

Because if I think about the dynamics of the 2024 election, and we've heard a lot of talk about the early general election polling that has him and Trump running pretty evenly. Some have Trump slightly ahead. Some have Biden slightly ahead. I would tend to think that one of the reasons why those polls are that close and why you even have some state-level polling that's got Trump ahead of Biden, sometimes by notable margins –

is that things right now are very much about Biden and not so much about Trump, if we really are going to have a Biden-Trump rematch. And so I think people are responding, thinking about Biden more.

And I think Biden's poor approval rating reflects a lot of dissatisfaction with the state of the country. And if that continues, it really does open the door to Donald Trump potentially winning another term in office as president of the United States. If people are frustrated with things like inflation, if people are unhappy and the Democratic base, for instance, is unhappy with the conflict in Israel –

and split over the issue to some extent. I mean, I just, what's funny is that a lot of the things that you can point to, like the student loan case, like young people being dissatisfied with Biden, like a lot of those things could tie into his approval slump. And if independents are unhappy with the state of the country, some of them might be willing to vote for Trump. We'll see where things go. And I do wonder if the election is going to, as the campaign proceeds,

become a bit more about Trump than it is currently when I see those numbers. But that, to me, really stands out as a major factor for the 2024 election. It's just, you know, Biden, I think, could win reelection with a poor approval rating, but he may be on his way to testing just how poor based on where things have gone. All right, Leah, where do you come down on this question?

I totally agree with Jeff. And I think that the other part of that is, well, the obvious other part of that is, you know,

stories about Trump coming out. And I mean, the I mean, I don't mean news stories about Trump, I just mean Trump dominating the news cycle in 2024. And I think most of the big events surrounding Trump in 2023, I mean, there are some major moments like we're kind of, you know, crowd around your TV moments to see, you know, Trump get his mugshot. But I do think a lot of those

have kind of just been wrapped up into the Trump news cycle, which is a lot of things happening all the time that haven't changed tons of opinions about it. So barring any single moment from Trump that would change the way people see about him that happened in the last year, I would actually say that abortion legislation in 2023, probably Ohio,

is most important in tangent with what Jeff just mentioned. Like how much do people, how much do voters think about Biden as a personality and a referendum on his presidency in the midterms, which is traditionally what midterms are? And how much does this world of

The potential of a second Trump term plus the first presidential election post the reversal of Roe v. Wade. How does that factor into voters' decisions? Does that change the math from what has traditionally been a referendum on the incumbent president?

So I hear you saying that the most important political event of 2023 for understanding 2024 could be that Ohio issue one vote that happened in November where Ohio voters codified abortion rights into the state constitution by a significant clip. Now,

Can you like flesh that out a little bit more in the sense of do you think that's indicative of how people will vote in 2024? Is that why you're saying like, how do you apply that, that knowledge, that lesson to next year's presidential race?

Right. Well, and it's not predictive because it is not a D versus R question, right? Like, especially in Ohio, let's use that as the example, though we could also point to, you know, governor's races and in Kentucky or, you know, there are other examples, but Ohio, that's the one we're going to focus on. That was not a Democratic versus Republican question. That was a yes or no question, which means that people could cross-referencing

party lines, but they're not really crossing party lines. They're just kind of ideologically expanding what their own party means. So it doesn't show us that people who are upset about Roe v. Wade being overturned, it doesn't tell us that they will vote all of a sudden for Democrats, even if they're Republicans. But it does show us that this was not a 2022 specific event.

That it is not over. That it's not like a response in the moment in 2022, which curbed the red wave and prevented Republicans from making further gains in Congress. It's not over, I think. And so it not being over doesn't necessarily mean that voters will vote.

overwhelmingly cross party lines because of abortion, but it does mean that it's an issue that will dominate or be one of the dominating forces in a presidential race in a way that it hasn't been in recent history. That makes sense to me. Right. And to Leah's point, it could...

overwhelm voters negative feelings about biden in other areas right in the 2022 midterms we famously saw that people who like somewhat disapproved of biden still voted democratic you know in part probably because of issues like abortion and um matt holt uh

who was then at the National Journal with Leah, wrote in 2020 about the haters who are basically like people who don't like either Biden or Trump, who are they going to vote for? And in 2020, they went for Biden. And I think this year, maybe, you know, obviously there's, you know, we'll see who they vote for. But, you know, the

notion that like maybe they don't like Biden on the economy or something like that, or they just think he's too old and just have kind of a vibes based dislike of him. Maybe they will still feel like, you know, abortion is an important enough issue or something else. Democracy is an important enough issue that they will vote Democratic or maybe they will side with Trump for other reasons. So.

I mean, one question that I have on this topic is that coming out of 2022, one of the takeaways that was that voters are pretty good at discerning where their votes mattered when it comes to the issue of abortion. And we saw that in places like New York,

Michigan, where abortion was literally on the ballot, or even in other states like Wisconsin, where abortion was indirectly on the ballot, there was something more akin to a blue wave, but that in places like New York, where it wasn't a live question, really, there was essentially a red wave. And so applying that lesson to 2024, if voters can discern this stuff,

Are voters going to look at the national picture and say, well, it doesn't really seem like there's any circumstance under which Republicans get a 60 vote, you know, filibuster proof majority to enact some kind of national abortion ban. And even if they had 60 votes in the Senate, there aren't 60 Republican senators who want a national abortion ban. So I don't really think my vote in this presidential election is going to directly change the

sort of the legality of abortion in my state. Like if we acknowledge that voters can discern, why wouldn't they take those lessons and discern in 2024 as well? Yeah, I think that's a real, I think that's a real possibility. And that's, I think, one of the reasons why Trump, I mean, we were saying Trump could win in 2024 is because voters do, I mean, the question is, do voters think that a House

a Republican majority house and a Republican majority Senate together could

enact further restrictions on abortion, whether or not they get to that 60 vote mark in the Senate. Could they? There are other ways of going around it. So I think it's partially do voters think that Republicans will actually do it and are they giving them the power to do it? And I think that's also a big question between like voting in state elections versus federal elections.

you know, voters did vote for New York Republicans in Democratic districts in 2022. So there is evidence that like voters don't think that way or are not thinking that way. Well, but they knew that Biden was going to remain president, right? I think, Galen, I'm on board with your argument up to the point about the 60 vote filibuster threshold, because I think that's something that the average voter doesn't understand. But I do think that

Democratic messaging saying that, like, if Republicans win the presidency and the Senate and the House, they will enact abortion bans. I think that could be a persuasive message, even though I think, yeah, the filibuster is a significant impediment to that. Interesting. Well, we will probably learn. But we've heard Jeff and Leah's most important event of 2023. For Understanding 2024, Nathaniel, where do you come down?

Yeah, okay. So I have a hipster answer and a real answer. Of course. I think because of the crew on this podcast, they're going to appreciate the hipster answer, so I'll start with that. I think the hipster answer is all of the court cases that we saw over redistricting this year. I think so much about the presidential race is

is going to be decided in 2024, right? Like, you know, a lot of this stuff right now is just kind of like sound and fury signifying nothing. But the maps in which the house is,

elections are going to happen, like that is real. And like, if you can draw a map that is basically unwinnable for a Democrat or for a Republican. And I think that between the Supreme Court's decision in Alabama to add a new black opportunity seat, which has implications for other states as well, such as Georgia and Louisiana, I think

between North Carolina, which basically, actually, I don't know if that was this year or last year, but the state Supreme Court was like, nevermind, you can gerrymander all you want. And as a result, North Carolina now has a new congressional map that's gonna add like three Republicans to Congress. And then New York,

There was just a decision there that basically said the map can be redrawn and it'll probably end up being a democratic gerrymander. The reason why I think this is more of a hipster answer than a real answer is that I think some of these things are going to come out in the wash, like the North Carolina decision and the New York decision are probably roughly going to cancel each other out. The Alabama decision is a big deal, but I think things are moving very slowly in states like Louisiana and Georgia and may not actually have an impact for 2024. So

Yeah, you know, it may not be as big of a deal as redistricting nerds like me would like. So my real answer, I think, is just going to be similar, I think, to kind of in the same vein as Jeffrey and Leah, but specifically news about Trump, but specifically, I think, his indictments. I think that it's been a while since Trump obviously has been indicted. And, you know, there's been this bad news cycle for Biden now, I think, for a few months.

But I think that's going to change once Trump goes on trial. And certainly if he gets convicted, I think that is going to be a big part of the campaign next year. And obviously the indictments were the thing that set that in motion here in 2023. So I think in retrospect, if

you know, Joe Biden wins reelection and it's a close race. And it turned out that Trump was convicted. And, you know, there was a lot of talk about that on, you know, on the campaign trail. I think it'll be easy to look back and say like, oh, like the day Trump was, you know, indicted in the January 6th case or whatever back in 2023, that was really a really decisive moment for this campaign. I like both of those answers, the hipster one and the presidential race one. I like how hipster just means down ballot, but. Yeah.

I mean, what do you think of the argument that Leah gestured at this before, but that this all gets wrapped up in the Trump does stuff, says stuff that's controversial news cycle and becomes sort of like a white noise machine in voters' minds. And it's all, there's so much of it. And it's been happening for so long, which at this point is like eight years, that it's

People are just, and we recorded an emergency podcast earlier today, so we were looking at polling before we recorded that about people's both reactions to whether or not Trump committed a serious federal crime, what they would think about his electability if he did commit such a crime. And then also one of the questions was, how much are you paying attention to any of this? And a lot of people said, not much.

Yeah, I mean, I guess I think, first of all, people are going to be paying more attention when an election is like a month away and if Trump has been convicted.

But I think I would say that, like, I don't think that it has been a total white noise machine for eight years. I think that negative stories about Trump have a depressive effect on views of him, that when they let up and he's not in the news cycle, like, it does allow his favorability slash approval rating to, like, rise a little bit. Like, it's generally very stable. Like, we're talking about, like, you know, it's staying within a range of, I don't know, five points or something like that. But...

When there are bad news stories about Trump, I do think that it keeps that number down and puts that pressure on his numbers in a way that in a close election could matter. Obviously, Biden is also a factor here, and his age is also a factor, and things like the economy are a factor. It's not just going to be a referendum on Trump, certainly. But I do think that right now we're in a time, maybe this is over now because of the Colorado decision, but

I think we have been in a time these last few months where Trump has not been in the news as much, and that has helped him in the polls. I think that's a totally fair answer, and we will see what happens as we get into the new year. I have one addition to the conversation, which I think is maybe even more of a hipster answer, and I'm not completely sure that I even believe it myself, but I think it's worth getting on the record before the end of the year.

And that is RFK Jr.'s independent bid. We've said here in various different ways that the likeliest 2024 candidates are historically unpopular. You know, Biden's approval rating right now is like negative 16 net approval. Trump is underwater in terms of favorability. Also,

by double digits. And like, look, if you just even ask the more blunt question to the American public, do you want Trump and Biden to run in 2024? There's a large majority of Americans who say, no, no, no, I don't want any of it. And so when you have that kind of environment, voters have a couple options. They can vote for the lesser of two evils. They cannot vote at all. They can vote for a third party candidate. They can go and vote and leave it, leave the top of the ballot blank.

All of those things will happen. There will be people who just hold their nose and vote for one or the other. And we saw that, yes, in 2020, the haters, the double disapproves,

voted for Biden. In 2016, the double disapproves voted for Trump, and they swung in his direction at the end of the cycle. So it made ultimately that cycle pretty volatile, right? That high disapproval rating for both candidates meant that there were a lot of people out there who weren't happy with what they were seeing and really didn't know what they were going to do and didn't make their minds up until the final weeks of the election.

So I think it means that things will stay volatile. But I think having a very high profile in name

option as a third party candidate is meaningful. And look, I know just as well as anyone, the arguments about how they may well pull equally from both sides and that that was the case with Ross Perot in 1992. Did a whole audio documentary on that. I talked to the campaign managers of both sides and looked at all of the data and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And on election day, polls suggest that Ross Perot took equally from

both sides. And that may be the case with RFK Jr. But having a third party candidate who has at this moment in time, double digit support, like it's somewhere around 15% in some of these, I think on average, actually, having somebody with that high of a level of support can change some of the narrative of the race. And in part, that's up to the media, right? How we cover him will end up shaping these things. But

Ross Perot was out there criticizing the status quo, which hurts George H.W. Bush more than it hurts Bill Clinton because he's essentially making the same argument that Bill Clinton is making spiritually or vibe space, which is that the leader of the country is doing a bad job, doing a bad job on the debt and deficit, doing a bad job preparing our country for your kid's future and all of the voodoo economics and all of the stuff that he talked about. That's bad for the incumbent.

And RFK Jr. can land attacks against Biden that will be more amenable to people likelier to vote for Biden, younger voters. I mean, Black voters in particular, we've seen in early polls support RFK Jr. with about 20% support.

And so I think even if you would argue that on election day, he's liable to see a significant decline in support and that he would take equally from both sides, his presence in the race over the coming year will change the dynamics of the race. There's my spiel. Yeah, I think that's a, it's definitely a big wild card for next year. I do want to make sure that we mentioned that like polls are,

I don't know.

pull equally from both parties and he may not. He may even just like pulling two to one from Trump, for example, might swing the race if the tipping point state is within half a point or whatever like it was in 2020. So I think it's good to keep an eye on for sure. And also we say this with all of our analysis is that like we're in historically unprecedented times, right? Like I don't know that we have ever had candidates as unpopular as Biden and Trump.

when we get into election day. And so even if, you know, we usually see third party candidates taking the polls in the final stretch, you know, Ross Perot ended up getting almost 20% of the vote. So like, they don't necessarily need to take it's just what usually happens.

Yeah, I mean, hindsight will be 20-20. I think the emergence of a third-party candidate in 2023 is an important event, is one of the most important events ever.

in the event that the economy takes a toll on Biden and abortion isn't a motivating factor. I feel like the independent candidate is kind of a symptom more than, or the support is more of a symptom than a cause. But again, hindsight will be 20-20 if, you know, I mean, we're saying that, you know, Donald Trump's first, he was the first president to be charged with

with criminal activity in history. And while that might be wrapped up in noise in 2023, if something comes out of that in 2024 that prevents him from running the campaign we expect him to run, that will be the most important thing that happened in 2023. We just don't know yet. Mm-hmm.

So I don't know. I guess this is my way of saying, well, we'll see. But I think it's valid. I think that's fair. All right. So before we close out our retrospective, I asked you all to come up with the weirdest political thing that happened in 2023. We're going to go back through the list. Jeff, what was it?

Oh, you're starting with me. I would say, you know, I don't know if it's weird necessarily, but like unexpected maybe. DeSantis not doing as well, I think, was surprising to me. Is this an acceptable enough answer? You know, if I think back to like the start of the year –

DeSantis was running almost neck and neck with Trump in head-to-head Republican primary polling and not that far behind him on a wider ballot in national surveys. And that was basically the peak of the DeSantis campaign. And so from the perspective of –

Thinking about how the Republican primary has played out and the fact that we're entering 2024 with Trump, a very, very clear frontrunner for the nomination, and DeSantis not even holding a firm grasp of second place because of Nikki Haley's rise.

is a surprise given where things were at the start of the year and how Trump came out of the 2022 midterms at least somewhat damaged. I don't think I ever thought that Trump was going to fall apart or something. I felt like the commitment of a lot of Republicans to Trump was too strong for that. But I did expect DeSantis to be more competitive than he is. All right, Leah. The weirdest thing that happened in 2023. Yeah.

Okay, so can I do like one and a half? I'm going to do flip side of the coin of what Jeff said, which is the idea of Ron DeSantis becoming, and I think it started in 2022 and really took off in 2023. But the idea that he would be this amazing candidate, I think was like,

It became very real, this idea. And I don't know – it's very hard to figure out how that happens. And I think it's weird that of all the people in all the country, it was like Ron DeSantis who Republicans decided early on was going to be like the candidate who can figure it out. But –

Really, 2023 is going to be the year of George Santos. Like that's what it's going to be. And Nathaniel wants to take this one so I don't take up two at once. Like there are plenty of examples. I just think that 10 years from now we'll be like, remember that time that like George Santos joked about stealing a baby? Yeah.

And like, remember that time he like screamed at someone in the Capitol? Remember? Like, there's just so much. Capitol Hill will not be the same in 2024, that's for sure, without George Santos. No. I think it's like the defining, it's like he was like the defining factor. He was the, he is the most unique thing that happened in Congress in 2023. The most unexpected. Does he win the Leah Escaran Award for Capitol Hill Person of the Year? No. No.

No, that's not how it worked. Don't get us to be of the year for being weird. Like if that were the case, I mean, I won't go into it. Uh, okay.

Sorry, is there a Senate staffer that you wanted to give that award to, Leah? Was that what you were going to say? Oh, yeah, there was a late entrant. Stop. Last minute entrant into the race. Really shook up the entire lobbying effort on behalf of George Santos to win the award. He came from behind. Wow. Wow. Wow. And from Nathaniel Rakich of all people, I really expected more from you. The lack of decorum on this podcast just...

unimaginable unimaginable what's I think honestly this is a twice weekly podcast with a gay host and I think you just said the gayest thing that's ever been said on this podcast Nathaniel

What's your weirdest thing of 2023? Yeah, I can't top that. I was going to say like George Santos going on Cameo and like, you know, making fun of Bob Menendez. But, you know, all this. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Bob Menendez. I didn't even mention that. Bob Menendez having cash in his coat. That was pretty weird. Mike Johnson and his son like watching porn together or like monitoring each other's porn intake. That was pretty weird. Yeah.

Yeah, I don't know. Mine was too straight-laced. I gave too much of a polling answer. Before we close things out for the year, we are going to play a final game.

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All right, for our final adventure of 2023, we're going to play Guess What Americans Think Holiday Edition. We've all played this before. So I'm going to ask a question and you all are going to write down on a piece of paper what will usually be a numerical answer, although maybe not for every question. We'll see. And whoever gets closest wins a point. There are no price is right rules. So yes, you can go over.

And with that, our first question of Guess What Americans Think Holiday Edition 2023 is, what percentage of Americans consider Die Hard to be a Christmas movie? And you could say...

Yes, it is. I'm not sure or no. And we're saying how many think yes, definitely yes. Yes. What percentage of Americans say that Die Hard is a Christmas movie? For folks, do I need to explain what Die Hard is? Is everyone familiar with the movie? We're millennials. We know what Die Hard is. All right. Three, two, one. Show me. 20% because I think most people don't care.

26%. I said 41%. And Jeff gets it. It is 39% of Americans who say that Die Hard is indeed a Christmas movie. What percent said no? 50%. 50% said no? Yeah. So what percent didn't care? Is this like an alternate form of the answer? Only 11% of Americans say they don't care whether this is...

This is what's wrong with America, is that more than 11% of us care whether Die Hard is a Christmas movie or not. I'm playing the rest of this game at a protest. No, I mean, don't protest your own lack of knowledge about a poll. I mean... All right, next question. What percentage of Americans expect to receive a holiday bonus from their employer this year?

All right. Three, two, one. Show me. 12%. 20% because I did it last time. 36%. And Leah, I don't want to reward this kind of behavior, but you are correct. It is 22% of Americans say they expect to receive a holiday bonus.

32% do not. 11% said they're not sure. And 35%, the largest, the plurality here, said they don't work or have an employer. Hey, the population's getting older, you know? Did Mitt Romney make this poll? A lot of retirees.

You know, it's self-employed people. Yeah. The Northeast was the region with the highest percentage of folks expecting a holiday bonus. I thought that was interesting. Okay. I just feel like most workers aren't even eligible for bonuses. That's why I went with 36%. New question. So Americans were asked if Santa Claus were a registered voter, which party would he support?

And so this is not a percentage that I want here. I want you to tell me, did the plurality say Republican, Democrat, independent, or not sure? You got four choices to pick from. All right. Three, two, one. Show me.

Independent. Independent. We got independent, independent, independent. Did you all see this poll already? No. But come on. A plurality of people identify as independent. I mean, they're not actually independent, but they identify that way. So I just figured, and also they, you know, the spirit of bipartisanship or nonpartisanship with Santa Claus that independence would win out. Well, all those Christmas movies about bipartisanship on Christmas. Yeah.

And look, hey, Santa Claus from Alaska, that candidate who ran the special election there for the house and former member of the North Pole Alaska City Council identifies as an independent, although I believe he's like a democratic socialist. So he's a Bernie Sanders independent, if you will. So you each get a point, which means Jeff two, Leah two, Nathaniel one. I do have a question though.

A bunch of people did respond that he was either Democratic or Republican. Do you think more people said Democratic or Republican? Should this be a bonus question? This is a bonus question. Impromptu bonus. Write it down. Oh, shoot. I said that loud. Because he's an old, white, non-college educated man. Because Republicans are more...

I don't think people put that much thought into it. All right. Three, two, one. Show me. Democrat. Yeah.

It is Democrat. So Nathaniel and Jeff, you get a point. No. 24% of Americans said Democrat. And 19% said Republican. Yeah, he is like the literal definition of a socialist. Santa Claus is part of the nanny state. Giving you toys. I'm not the L's or unionites. Oh yeah. Jeff has three. Ha ha ha.

Yeah. And the national security state, apparently. He knows when you've been bad or good. Patriot Act supporter, Santa Claus. For goodness sake.

With that, Jeff, you have three, Leah, two, Nathaniel, two. Hey, how does Nathaniel have two? Because he got two questions right. He got independent and Democrat, right? Independent and Democrat. Fine. I'm bad with numbers, but I can guess multiple choice questions. This is probably why I'm not winning. Okay. What percentage of Americans have never re-gifted

a present that they've received from somebody else. Or say that they've never re-gifted it. That is a good, hmm. I am flying blind here. Yeah, I mean, we don't really cover this issue a lot, so I don't really blame you for flying blind here. All right, three, two, one, show me. 67%. I said 60%. And I said 57%. Tightly bunched here.

The answer is 31%. A lot of really dishonest people, it would appear. To Nathaniel's point about how many people say they've never regifted. Sorry, this was never regifted, not have regifted. 31% say they have never regifted a gift. Overestimated Americans.

So, Jeff, it is four to two to two. If it was Price is Right rules, we would all have been done by a lot. Price is Right rules are dumb.

Next question. What percentage of... I mean, like, Jeffrey, she was closest. You should get it. Like, it's not hard. Like, what... Missing in the negative direction is the same as missing in the positive direction. What else do we have? I know, just... Price is right. Slandering... Slandering... Died in the wool American traditions on this podcast. Yeah, okay. We're millennials. Calling Santa Claus... Calling Santa Claus a socialist.

I think that was you. Slandering. Well, I know you guys came up with the idea. I just took it a little bit further. Okay. My favorite question of all of the ones. What percentage of Americans believe that Mariah Carey's All I Want for Christmas is You is played just the right amount?

All right, show me. I'm going back to my old 20% because if I had said that last time, I would have won. I have a 38%, yes. You're saying 38%, Jeff? And 41% for me.

Wow. Jeff really getting it. It's 34% of Americans say that it is played just the right amount. 45% of Americans say that it is played too much. Was there a too little option though? Um, yes. Hold on. Let me, let me look up that number. Um, cause those people amaze me and I liked the song, but impressive. Uh,

It feels like a troll answer to say too little. All right. So the number of Americans who say that it has played too little, that is 4% of Americans. Oh, all right. That a bunch were not sure maybe? Yes, about 20% say not sure. Okay. Well, all right. That sounds about right. 4% saying too little. Good for those people. Okay. Do you think more men or women say that it's played too much?

Is this a point for anything? No, I'm not guessing then. I need a point. I would say I'm going to actually... Wait, more men or more women say it's played too much? Yeah. I'm just going to go with men. I'll just go with men.

That would be my sneaking suspicion, but I mean, honestly, it feels a little irresponsible of me to dig into the cross tabs of this poll. Um, I'll just say, I'll just say, but according to this poll, more women say that it's played too much than men. There,

There's also a significant racial gap here, which is that 49% of white Americans say that it's played too much and 29% of black Americans say that it's played too much with Hispanic Americans splitting the difference. That's fascinating. So I don't know if you're a sociologist and you want to call in and let us know why that might be the case. Go for it. In the meantime, Jeff, I think you now have five points. Is it five to two to two?

Yes, it is. Sounds depressing. I don't like this game. Okay, next question. We have another? Yes, we have another. I mean, there's so much holiday joy. There's so much holiday joy in the polls this year. What percentage of Americans prefer colored lights for their outdoor decoration, which is as opposed to white lights? All right, show me.

45%. 51%. 40%. You guys really cluster them pretty close. I'm squeezed. It is 59% of Americans prefer colored lights. I think, Jeff, that means you get it again. Clear majority. Wow. Jeff, you really know your America Christmas. Is this where we find out that

He's a Christmas baby. Born on Christmas Eve. I mean, this was like a thing of, yeah, you know, I have that just intuitive knowledge that comes from being born so close to Christmas. No, my thought was that Americans are generally kind of gaudy, so I figured it was probably the majority. Take the win, take the win, and then slander America. Once again, just slandering America. Hey, hey, hey.

Well, I actually do think that white lights are definitely classier. Interesting. Yeah, but I will say there is a caveat here, which is that I do think that the –

That the, there's kind of a classic blue light that you'll see sometimes where it's like all blue. And I think that is actually really, really nice looking. But I think people like a thousand colors. That's what I wanted as a child, as a Jewish child. I just wanted blue lights. Felt like a good, this is also why I'm probably doing so poorly. That's my excuse. Celebrate Hanukkah, guys. And to that end,

Final question here. So it's six to two to two. This final question is worth five points. Oh, no. Oh, no. This is like Quidditch, you know? Oh, we played all this stuff and there are points being scored, but you get the snitch and it's over. What percentage of consumers will display at least one Christmas tree this year?

I'm just, like, thinking. I'm, like, driving virtually in my brain right now. I'm worried about bias because this data does come from the American Christmas Tree Association. Oh, no. Immediately raised this answer by 40%. To my number? Yeah. Well, then, I got to change this up now. Hold on. Actually, I am literally changing my answer. Gail, that was important information. Unless if they're doing, like, some reverse psychology, like...

In America, only one in 100 Americans has at least one Christmas tree. All right. Three, two, one. Show me. 77%.

Leah has 60%. Oh, it's at least one, isn't it? And Jeff has 39%. Jeff, you already wrote down your number. I have 60%. Nathaniel gets it. According to the American Christmas Tree Association, 94% of consumers will display at least one Christmas tree this year. Bald's face. Did a Christmas tree write this poll? Wait, in this group, who has a Christmas tree?

I mean, my dad has one. Like, there will be one when I go home for the holidays. I don't have one in my apartment. Okay. Yeah, we hung up ornaments belatedly last night, in fact.

I got mine up the weekend after Thanksgiving. That's the classic. Wait, and is it your personal Christmas tree or is it your family's Christmas tree? No, it's in here in the apartment. Respect. I appreciate that. Galen, you're one of that 6%. I know.

I enjoy Christmas trees. I just have a small apartment, sadly. And also, Christmas trees in New York City, another un-American thing, it's like $150 for a tiny Christmas tree. You just got to get fake. Bonus question here. Go chop it down yourself, Galen. Do the work. Well, I'll just go to Central Park and just steal a tree.

If I make it onto page six, you'll know why. It was your suggestion. Okay. To Jeff's comment about fake trees, final bonus question of the year. So of those 94% of consumers who are displaying at least one Christmas tree this year, what percent will display an artificial tree?

And I think this includes like, I don't know. So this is of that 94% who will have a tree. Of that 94, what percent say they will have an artificial tree? And I have to imagine that this includes people who are like, well, I have a real Christmas tree. And then I put like a fake Christmas tree in a different room in the house or whatever.

Does the Christmas Tree Association support both? Do they sell both? Do they profit off of both? This is an interesting. Do they want natural Christmas trees? The American Christmas Tree Association is a nonprofit organization that serves as a resource for media and consumers seeking information and education on the Christmas tree industry. O-Tan and Baum. You know, like, good Lord. That's the company's song, right?

Here's their guide to... Their Christmas parties must be lit. Their guide to Christmas trees. The earlier, the better. Okay, fair enough.

Get a Christmas tree early. This or that. Although more expensive up front, there are longer-term cost savings associated with purchasing artificial Christmas trees. Artificial trees are used for an average of 10 years, but most are guaranteed for 20 years. If cared for properly, a good quality tree can be used year after year. I don't know. This feels like it's actually... It feels like this is an organization that supports artificial trees. Yeah. So...

Reveal. Show me what you got. I'm changing my answer again. I'm just going with my feeling in the moment. How many points is this one worth? The points are here are more of like a spiritual vibes based points than a real number. Wait, wait. Doing the number with real ones or fake ones? Fake ones. What percentage of that 94% have fake trees? Three, two, one. Show me. 61%. 25%.

20%. And Jeff says 61%. Jeff is closest. According to this association...

77% have a heart of racial trait. Oh my gosh, wait. Can I show you what I almost put up and then changed it the last second? 80%. You gotta go with your gut, Leah. No, because I figured it was 20%. Leah, it's about your gut. This poll is not legitimate. I have no gut. This is PR propaganda. I think...

Well, I may not be convinced it's a full-on 77%. It would not shock me at all that artificial trees are more common in American households than real trees. I mean, the fake tree thing is just a lot easier, and it does cost more up front, but then you don't have to worry about all the needles falling off. Jeff, what do you work for, Jeff? The artificial Christmas tree lobby? No, I'm just saying. To be clear, a real Christmas tree is special and smells great and is cool. I'm just saying...

you know, you may not want to deal with the mess. So I understand. I appreciate that analysis, Jeff. With that, you have numerically won this round of Guess What Americans Think Holiday Edition. However, everyone here spiritually, psychically won because how could it be? How could it be? How could it be any other way?

With that, really in the spirit here. After Trump's day at the union. Okay. All right. Thank you, Nathaniel, Leah, and Jeff for playing along with me today. And happy holidays. Happy holidays, everyone. Happy holidays. Have a lovely holiday.

With that, my name is Galen Druk. Tony Chow is in the control room. Our producers are Shane McKeon and Cameron Tretavian, and our intern is Jayla Everett. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcasts at 538.com. You can also, of course, tweet at us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple Podcast Store or tell someone about us. Thanks for listening, and we will see you soon.