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I can definitely hear you, but you're now frozen. For the record, podcast listeners, we've had one casualty so far today on the podcast. Nathaniel was supposed to be with us. His internet would not allow that to happen. So DC, get your internet situation together so that Nathaniel can join us again in the future. Hello and welcome to the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Dwyer.
Abortion rights advocates have notched another win in a red state. I think we can probably call Ohio a red state at this point, although I got a Politico alert earlier today saying that the Biden campaign suggested that both North Carolina and Ohio were in play for them in 2024.
They can say what they want. We will find out. Either way, abortion rights advocates notched a win in Ohio. Last Tuesday, Ohioans voted by a 14-point margin not to raise the threshold to amend the Constitution to a 60% supermajority. Instead, it will remain a simple majority, making it likelier that Ohioans will pass an amendment to codify abortion rights into the state Constitution this November.
Most of the post-election analysis concluded that abortion is a major driver of turnout in elections now. And it's hard to deny that in some of these otherwise low turnout environments, like an issue election in early August, that's the case. But should we apply these lessons to high turnout elections as well, like, say, the 2024 presidential election?
We're going to discuss. Also, a few weeks ago, we imagined a situation where for some reason Trump became non-viable as the Republican nominee, and we held a 2024 Republican primary draft under that scenario. Well, today, we're going to imagine something a little different. Let's say Trump wins the nomination. Who
Who would he pick as his running mate? Yes, we are doing a 2024 Republican VP draft. And here with me to do it is senior reporter Amelia Thompson-DeVoe. Welcome, Amelia. Thanks, Galen. Also here with us is senior elections analyst Jeffrey Skelly. Welcome, Jeffrey. Hey, Galen.
Hey, so I will say that for the record, we are recording this on Friday in case that becomes relevant because of breaking news. And I know at the time you're listening to this, we're all on high alert for a possible fourth Trump indictment. If or when that happens, we will cover it. But for now, we got other stuff to talk about. I also want to say that as we're sitting down, it looks like one of the biggest stories in the country today.
are the wildfires in Hawaii, which, you know, is absolutely, it looks totally awful. And my heart goes out to the folks affected by it.
Before we dive in, one more housekeeping note here is that we have just posted a internship for the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. You can find the posting at FiveThirtyEight.com or I've tweeted it. You can find it on Twitter as well, or X, I should say. Spread it far and wide if you're interested and you want to come join us and help make this podcast. We would love to have you. So get in touch and we look forward to hearing from you.
But let's begin with the vote in Ohio. And this is sort of a good use of polling or bad use of polling segment, but not entirely. You'll see. So after the results came in, basically every news outlet wrote the same story. Here's the New York Times. A
Abortion rights is a turnout engine. If anyone doubted the message that voters have been sending in election after election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year, Ohioans underscored it once more on Tuesday. Voters are highly motivated by abortion. Politico, abortion still a serious turnout driver. Tuesday's election proved that the state-by-state battle over abortion rights is still a serious motivator to get voters to the polls, even when abortion isn't directly on the ballot.
CNN, the results underscore the new political reality, one that's been repeatedly demonstrated in both blue and red states. Since the Supreme Court's reversal of Roe v. Wade last year, abortion rights are a major driving force. Okay, you get the point. At this point, I'm sure there are other outlets that wrote the same story as well. So first and foremost, Amelia, you know, is this a good or bad use of polling? And by polling, I mean the results at the polls in Ohio. Yeah.
Can I be a real pedant because it's Friday? Because it's Friday, you can't. Oh, because it's Friday, I can't. I just feel like on Friday, I should be allowed to spin my wheels as much as I want. So I think it is fair to say a good use of polling that this shows that abortion is still a motivating issue for voters.
What I don't think is a good use of the results to say is that abortion is motivating even when it isn't directly on the ballot. Because, yes, this was not technically about abortion. It was about raising the threshold for approving constitutional amendments.
but everyone knew it was about abortion. Both sides were messaging it as if it was about abortion. There was some stuff on the left about democracy as well and how the GOP was trying to make it harder for citizens to pass ballot initiatives. But this was driven by abortion. And one of the big lessons that we saw out of the 2022 midterms that I don't, I haven't seen evidence to think has changed is that when people are voting directly on abortions, legality in their state changes.
That makes a big difference. So, you know, I think this will be a really big issue in Ohio for the next few months as we move toward the ballot measure. I think we can expect abortion to be a motivating issue for Ohio voters in 2023. But then there's a question of like, is abortion going to be a motivating issue in 2024 when there's a competitive Senate race in Ohio? And it's
I'm not so sure because people already will have turned out to vote on abortion in their state and abortion may be protected under the state constitution as a result, making them feel less urgency around the issue. So,
That's my very pedantic, both good and bad response. No, I think that was just a solid response. I would not qualify that as pedantic. I appreciate that. Thank you, Galen. I really thank you for not shaming me for pedantry. No, but I think, you know, when looking at the 2022 midterms, I mean, is New York the sort of prime example of that?
New York is an example of that. I mean, you know, like in that CNN quote you read, it says the results underscore the new political reality, one that's been repeatedly demonstrated in both blue and red states. Well, I'd say the blue states where that's been demonstrated are California and Vermont, where abortion was on the ballot. It was not as much the case in New York and other blue states in 2022. And so this is something that I think...
Democrats are going to have to sort of work out because, yes, I think on the whole, Democrats are much more motivated by the issue of abortion, even in blue states. But what voters have shown over the past year or so is that they're fairly sophisticated and they can tell when their vote is actually having an impact on the issue of abortion versus, you
Just sort of voting for people who are talking about abortion and taking sides on abortion, but maybe don't actually have any control over whether abortion stays legal. Like if you're thinking about which House candidate to vote for,
that person is not going to determine whether abortion is legal in any meaningful way. So I think that New York is a great example. I'm sure there are others too. Yeah. Jeff, weigh in here. Good or bad use of polling? There's like kind of two sides of the coin here. On the one hand...
Yes, it was an early August election, primary election. I don't even know what the phrasing that Ohio used to describe it. Special election? Yeah. Anyway, the point is that it was an election at an unusual time and an off year, and you actually had pretty good turnout. Now, what does pretty good turnout mean?
Well, overall, it looks like about 34% of the voting eligible population showed up to vote in this thing. To put that in context, the midterm turnout in Ohio was 47%.
last November. So you're still talking about a much smaller electorate than the midterm electorate, and obviously a lot, lot smaller than the presidential turnout of about two-thirds in 2020 in Ohio. It was more like the very low turnout in the 2014 midterm, which had
the lowest midterm turnout in like a century or something. I think it's sort of like on the one hand that those numbers would seem to suggest like, well, maybe we should hold our horses a bit. But I do think given the timing of the election, that the fact that you could still get that many people to show up was pretty notable. But I do think that that also raises questions about its applicability to a higher turnout election, like a presidential contest. And I think there, the story may be more about convincing some voters in the middle to
to go with one side or the other. And so I think abortion could be an issue there because we do know we have, you know,
oodles of polling showing that people are more likely to say that they think abortion should be legal. And so in that case, that's where maybe you – instead of it being about turnout, it's about persuasion. And so thinking about just – I mean there are not going to be a ton of persuadable voters in this day and age because things are so partisan and polarized. But they will matter. I mean I think about places like suburban Phoenix or –
voters like that and how, you know, their, their choices, uh,
and mattering in a really important swing state. - And Jeff, it is the case that while we may say there's, oh, there's not so many swing voters, but abortion is exactly the kind of thing that can apply cross pressure to voters because there's no way to get to 60 some percent in the polls nationally of people thinking that it should mostly be legal without there being a chunk of Republicans who also think it should be mostly legal and independents as well. So that's exactly the kind of quote unquote
wedge issue the politicians would try to use to sort of free up some of those swing voters.
Just to throw in one more thing. One thing I do think this highlights is an issue that Republicans are just going to have to grapple with going forward, which is that there's differential motivation. Like not as much of their base seems to be motivated by wanting abortion restrictions to get more restrictive, which is what Republicans have consistently done over the past year, compared to Democrats wanting abortion restrictions to be loosened. And that's kind of...
kind of always been the case. I mean, it's always been a relatively small share of Americans who want abortion to be illegal in almost all circumstances. And the issue was just that
That wasn't our status quo for a long time. So people didn't have to care about it. The only people who were really invested in it were the ones who felt really strongly about having more restrictions. They're very strong Republican voters, so they have an outsized voice within the party. But now we're in a situation where there's a CNN SSRS poll that came out earlier this week, and it looked at among the Americans who voted
approve of the Supreme Court's ruling, 34% now say they'd like to see anti-abortion politicians attempt to implement nationwide abortion bans rather than leaving the issue up to individual states. It's an increase from last year. 20% felt that way last year. So that's a
like the bigger takeaway from, for me from that is it's not a huge share of people who approve of the ruling who want politicians to be doing more on this issue. And if you look at people who are opposed to the ruling, 78% say that politicians in the federal government who support legalizing abortion, aren't doing enough to ensure abortion access and
60% say that politicians in their state's government are similarly doing too little. So there's a real lopsidedness in how strongly people on both sides of the issue are feeling about this. And of course, add to that the fact that more people oppose the ruling than support it. So I do think Republicans are going to have to deal with that. But I just don't think that translates into abortion is an automatic winner for Democrats everywhere.
I want to dig into that possible assertion that I've heard people in the political realm make, which is abortion is a winner for Democrats. Talk more about abortion. And I think that message is aimed at the 2024 election in particular. And both of you have already said that this issue one vote doesn't really say much about the role that abortion might play in 2024 because it's such a different environment.
What can we say about how things might change in a high turnout election?
I guess I'm inclined to say that one of the complications with a high turnout election is that we've been talking about these lower turnout, whether it's just the midterm or even this issue one thing where the voters showing up are probably disproportionately more educated and more engaged with politics than a presidential election turnout will be. So you're going to have more voters who are less engaged and less informed than
in a presidential environment. And so I think that the sort of the question is an issue like abortion has been on the front pages for a while now. And so I do think that it's possible it could be helpful for Democrats because there'll be lower, less engaged voters who are like, oh, yeah, Republicans just trying to ban abortion, right?
I guess I'll vote for Biden. I'll make sure to turn out – sorry. I'll make sure to turn out and vote for Biden because I'm worried. That is a real concern, and because it's a presidential year, I'm thinking about it more than I would normally.
And again, because of the persuasion thing, getting some voters who are like, well, I really don't like Trump or Biden, and we did see this somewhat in the midterm. Biden did – sorry, Democrats actually won a slight majority of people who somewhat disapproved of Biden. So if you have a universe of voters who don't really like Trump or Biden but maybe only somewhat disapprove of Biden's presidential performance in office …
saying like, well, Republicans have been really extreme on this and the issues continues to be in the news. And so maybe that ends up being a tool of persuasion for Democrats to win them over. So I think all things equal –
Abortion is probably a political winner for Democrats. Like do we think that Democrats would have done as well in the 2022 midterms, at least minimizing their losses to some extent if abortion hadn't been such a huge issue? I mean I don't think so. I think that almost certainly helped them.
I think that's right. But I also just think that local factors are going to matter a lot. And so that's why I think it's especially important when we're thinking about 2024 to look at what's happening in the states where there are active efforts to get abortion on the ballot. Missouri, Arizona, Florida are all in various stages of motion on that. And I just pulled up some data on how people in those states feel about abortions legality.
And I mean, it's not ambiguous. Fifty nine percent in Missouri think abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Sixty two percent in Arizona. Sixty four percent in Florida. The Florida ballot measure is going to have to clear 60 percent because of their rules. So that that one is going to be more of a reach for abortion rights advocates. But I just have to imagine that it would.
Maybe we'll see an impact of anger about abortion everywhere, but it's going to be higher in the places where people have seen abortion bans go into effect. And especially, I'll be curious to see a state like Missouri, which is...
A red state has one of the strictest abortion bans in the country, has historically been cracking down on abortion for years to the point where you basically couldn't get an abortion in Missouri even before Dobbs. And so to look and see that 59% of Missourians, Missourians?
I don't know. Sorry, Missourians. Anyway, to see that 59% think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, I mean, that is one that I think will be genuinely interesting to see. If they get it on the ballot, does this...
change the way people turn out or change the way they vote. Yeah. I mean, I think it's probably... So one, the actual ballot measure will be a test, but I think it's probably no secret that folks are trying to get this on the ballot in a presidential election year in these highly contested states. I don't know. Maybe you don't want to call Missouri a highly contested state, but...
specifically in order to try to boost turnout for amongst people who would vote for Democrats and try to improve performance there. You know, I mean, one thing that I think about in all of this is not just local factors, but also how much the electorate changes, which Jeff, you started talking about.
I've mentioned this on the podcast before, but one thing that the Eckes Research Postmortem showed us from Carlos Rodeo and Company is that amongst voters who said their biggest concern was the economy,
Turnout was a lot lower in the 2022 midterms. Voters for whom abortion was a big issue had much higher turnout. But I think in 2024, that will be far more equalized. And so you will be getting a large population of voters who just aren't really motivated by the issue, period, and are interested in abortion.
other things like how the economy is doing, the vibes. How do I generally feel about Biden's competence and age? And how do I generally feel about, you know, Trump's scandals, lawsuits, indictments, whatever, and maybe also age? I don't know. And it's just going to be such a different electorate that to draw conclusions and cast them on... And the people, especially the people who are showing up in a low turnout election,
are like making sure these high educated, maybe suburban, urban Democrats who are turning out again and again and again in special elections and Supreme Court elections and issue elections in the middle of August. And like those are people who are going to turn out probably almost no matter what in a presidential election. I don't know that they needed abortion to get them there, but they're going to be joined by a lot of other voters who may not care about abortion when they get to the polls in 2024.
I mean, I guess the flip side of that, though, Galen, is that young voters, for example, are more likely to turn out in a presidential year. And everything we're seeing in the data is that young voters are extremely upset about what's happening on abortion and very mobilized on it. And really, you know, I wrote a whole article about how young voters are sort of helping to drive abortion.
this feeling that there shouldn't be any restrictions on abortion at all in the country, which a lot of blue states do still have restrictions on later abortions. So I think you're right. The changing electorate is going to make this a very different ballgame. But I also wouldn't assume that all of that is
is going to mean that we're just going to see an influx of people who are less interested in this issue. I think it's also possible that young voters weren't really following the midterms, didn't feel like there was a competitive race in their state, are mad about abortion, and also don't like Trump if he's the nominee for the Republican side. And they're like, OK, I'm definitely going to vote. I was going to say, I'm glad you said that, because I was going to say it might be difficult to disentangle
really, really disliking Trump from being angry about abortion. I mean, we saw record high youth turnout in 2018 when abortion wasn't really at play just because that group of voters is really allergic to Trump. Well, and also, I mean, you see people on advocates on the abortion rights side, I get press releases about this all the time, are making a kind of explicit PR move to say that abortion and democracy are connected issues. And
You know, I don't I don't know if that's going to work in the long term, but certainly if people are mad about abortion and they're mad about Trump and Trump is also potentially going on trial for abortion.
you know, trying to overturn the result of the previous election, you can see how it would be hard to disentangle those issues for people because everything is making them mad. Yeah, it is. We can talk about this on another podcast, but it is a weird trend of Democrats kind of linking everything to democracy. It's like, this is a policy I don't like. That's autocratic. And it's like, that's not really the case. Like, that's just a policy you don't like. On abortion, I will say...
It appears the move of many anti-abortion advocates right now, which is like exactly what happened in Ohio, is to look at the fact that more Americans think abortion should be legal and try to figure out how to override that or make it harder to make it legal. So I think it's a little bit less of a stretch there. But yes, I agree. It's like not everything is about democracy. And I certainly don't think that's how voters think about it. Right, right. The Ohio case is also a particular case, right, where it was –
that issue one was on the ballot specifically to try to make it harder. But yes, anyway, let's move on to our 2024 GOP VP draft.
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Trump is currently polling at 54% in our averages, with DeSantis at 14%. So let's imagine for a moment, and I think this probably doesn't take that much imagination, that Trump goes on to win the Republican nomination. Who would he pick as his running mate? To answer that question, we're going to do a draft, and maybe through this exercise, we can try to learn a little bit about the Republican Party, how Trump might position himself as a president round two, and...
We'll ask questions like, what kinds of balancing does Trump think he needs, if any, for a ticket with himself at the top? Would it be a moderate this time instead of a religious conservative like Pence? Maybe somebody who appeals to women or college-educated voters or voters of color, or maybe somebody from the Midwest, say, you know, Wisconsin, Michigan. So we're going to do a sneak draft, as always, in order to try to be fair. And the order has already been announced.
selected by random.org and it is Jeff, Amelia, and then Galen. And I think Jeff, you had to go last, last time. So Jeff, I random really wanted to even things out for you, Jeff, take it away. Yeah, this is, this is a little hard. Um, you know, but I, I was looking at it and I,
Okay, so obviously South Carolina is not a state that's going to be in play, but I kind of think that Tim Scott is the first name on my list. So I'm going to take him at pick number one. I think he will, through this primary, at least show – this hypothetical that Trump has won the nomination –
Scott will have run for president, and a fair number of VP picks in the past have been people who were fellow candidates, you know, quit themselves well on the campaign trail, show that they are very capable. He's got a burgeoning national profile now. I think he's someone that appeals across the board to Republicans, whether they are big fans of Trump or not. And he's obviously a black man, and I think in terms of trying to have –
broaden your appeal. Republicans have a tendency to try to say that they don't care about race or gender or things like that. But at the same time, they'll send out press releases highlighting how they have the most diverse House field they've ever had or that kind of thing. So I know that they care about it. So it seems to me that Tim Scott would very much fit the bill as a VP pick.
Hmm. Okay. Okay. Given, given the impact. Sorry, I just, Galen and I just did exactly the same thing. And I don't know what was going through Galen's mind. Yeah. I mean, I was going to say that I think given my argument for Scott as a viable presidential nominee in Trump's stead suggests that I would generally agree with your points that
The one question I would have is, I think that Scott, you know, genuinely wants to be president. And over the next few months,
By trying to get there, does he put himself in a position on the wrong side of Trump that would make it harder for Trump to select him as his VP nominee? Or also, I mean, Trump's former VP is now running against him and not doing very well. So I don't know if Trump is a great advertisement for this idea of the VP being a stepping stone to the presidency. I mean, maybe Tim Scott gets through four years as Trump's VP unscathed, but...
Based on what happened with Trump, I would say those are some fairly long odds. Well, I guess the question is, are we trying to pick who is most likely to get picked? Yes. Yes. We're not picking just who would be best. Who would be most likely to be picked and accept. Right. And I...
I mean, I just think in our very polarized political environment, Scott has been someone who has mostly shied away from being critical of Trump in a way that some of the other Republican candidates increasingly are not in the wake of these indictments. You know, a lot of them are trying to avoid being sort of full-throated critics of Trump. But nonetheless, I feel like Scott has shied away from that more than most.
So to me, he might be in a position where he says, yeah, I'll give it a go. And if Trump wins, he can't run for another term after that.
At least constitutionally, he's not supposed to. And so maybe Scott's like, well, I'd be set up. And if we lose, I'll still have been the good soldier. And so the Trump base will like me for having worked with him. Now, of course, that could damage him in other ways potentially. But I just think that there could be some upside there long term for him.
Yeah, I think there's a strong argument that in the position where you're about to, you're being offered the VP nomination, you take it. Even if there are concerns about being thrown under the bus. Like for a lot of ambitious politicians. I'm not saying that like for any level-headed person. I don't know. I mean, was that really the case for Trump in 2016? Like he had to kind of, Pence was...
perceived as not his first choice. Right. He had to do some persuading. I think that the party is just different now. And I think that he's viewed as much more likely to win a second term than he was to win a first term.
Yeah, yeah. So you're not – it's not as much of a risk of going down on a sinking ship and then never being able to recover. Yeah, I'd buy that. No, Tim Scott was pretty high on my list. He was not – he would not have been my number one pick, but he would have been up there. All right, Amelia, take it away. Well, so there's something really compelling about South Carolina on the podcast today, I guess. But, you know, I think there is –
it's fairly likely that Trump will choose someone from the current Republican field to be his running mate. And I actually, I would put Nikki Haley higher than I would put Tim Scott higher.
Simply because she's a woman, and even though, as Jeff was mentioning, Republicans do not like to focus on identity as an issue that they care about, I think they would like to have a woman of color on the ticket with Trump. And Nikki Haley checks a lot of the boxes that Tim Scott does. You know, she's more moderate, more
but hasn't kind of come out in this full throated anti-Trump vein. She is very much running in this sort of, I'm a tough conservative woman mold. And she's just not like she she's running less on a kind of optimism and like, let's, let's move forward, Sonny. Um,
platform than Scott is, but she is sort of positioning herself as being a politician who can move the Republican Party forward.
And so I think if Trump wants someone who's younger, who's part of a different generation of Republicans, who might bring in more moderates, but is not going to irritate anyone, I think Nikki Haley is a good pick. And I think the fact that she's a woman and Kamala Harris is
by, you know, seems like she's going to be Biden's VP again, even though weirdly I see speculation that she won't, but there's no evidence for that. You know, I think, I think Republicans would like that symmetry. Interesting. I'm probably going to embarrass myself. Maybe I'll embarrass myself later on when this ends up happening, but Nikki Haley was not even on my list. Fascinating.
That's why I don't think that's, I'm just so interested. I mean, it's one, maybe an oversight, but two, I think that he views her as having like crossed the line into anti-Trump territory, uh,
too many times. And I think he just has better. I mean, she did give a full throated rebuttal of Trump post January 6th. And now if Trump permanently rejected everyone who's ever rejected him, he would literally have no one. So he does embrace people sort of once they come back around into the Trumpian fold. And that could just be the case with her.
But I don't, I mean, and maybe she is trying to pivot now into a position where she could be viable as the VP because she keeps saying in all of these interviews, like, stop asking me about Trump. Like, I don't want to talk about it. We've got to move on. We've got to talk about other things instead of saying like, yeah, this is messed up. And like, we should pick a different standard bearer, which had been her message.
So maybe, I mean, maybe she does get back into the fold, but I just think that like if his brand is sort of authenticity and, you know, good on TV and what, like, I think there are other options, but I don't know. Jeff, what do you think? Yeah. I mean, I mean, I did have Haley on my list. I just,
I think for me, it's some of what you were saying, Galen, about conflicts with Trump, or at least having criticized him before. But it is true that she criticized him before, you know, during the 2016 campaign and then ended up being his UN ambassador. So, you know, she's got foreign policy experience now. There's some gravitas there. Maybe Trump would view her as an asset. I mean, I can see it. I guess I just...
Scott has not been critical in the same way. Yeah. Or at least in recent times. I mean, I should not overestimate or underestimate Trump's ability to hold a grudge. But I think if the pitch is, you know, you're the GOP nominee and you're under trial potentially multiple times in the election year and you're trying to keep...
more traditional Republicans in the fold and also, you know, seeming like you are not sexist because you have a woman on the ticket is helpful. I think that is a good pitch for Nikki Haley because she is much more in this traditional establishment Republican mold who has also really, you know, put in her time and has a lot of experience. She was also governor of South Carolina. I don't know that
I necessarily think she would be a better pick or more likely than Tim Scott, but I think they're similar in that way. And I don't, I guess I don't think that Trump's history shows that he, like if he, if he thinks that someone will help him win, he will get past a thing that they said three or four years ago. He has to think they're going to help him. And so that's the question. But I guess I just, you know, like, like you said, Galen, like,
Everybody has at one point criticized Trump, so he's got to be able to see past this. Eventually, he just has to see the upside for him. Yeah, and I think my first pick extends that argument of...
Trump will pick somebody who he thinks will help him in the sense of he's interested in balancing and all of these articles that come out like, oh, he might pick Carrie Lake. He might pick Marjorie Taylor Greene. Like, I think Trump is smarter than that. And I think he wants somebody who is going to like he already represents that brand. He wants somebody who's going to come off as like
The adult in the room, whatever, like he would never admit to this being how the person is described, but like the adult in the room, the connection to the rest of the party that he, you know, the 25% of the anti-Trumpers or whatever within the Republican Party. And so this person has not been on any of the lists, but as you mentioned, Amelia, it's a summer Friday. So I'm just going to be bold and go for it because I think it would be a good pick. Joni Ernst.
She's on my list. Yeah, she's on my list too. Yeah. Oh, she is. Okay. All right. There you go. So I think a couple things. First and foremost, she has a military background and she can play really well into what I think Trump views as his biggest strength, which is the sort of law and order message that he levied in 2016 and has continued to sort of levy in opposition to DeSantis in the primary and I think will continue to use in
in throughout the 2024 campaign talking about crime talking about immigration talking about you know possible international wars even and how you know under his presidency
Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine, et cetera, et cetera. So Joan Ernst has a military background. She is truly establishment Republican. She's in Senate leadership. She is the most sort of Republican adult in the room that you can find, you know, in that upper echelon, maybe not the most, but like very much adult in the room vibes. She's a connection to the Club for Growth establishment part of the party. She's a woman and she's
Once again, Donald Trump wants to win. He knows that the Republican... He and his pollsters know that the Republican Party does poorly with women, especially in an environment where abortion may be one of the prime issues. And, you know, having a...
being able to lend credibility to your outreach to women is useful. She's also from the Midwest. He wants to win back Wisconsin and Michigan. Now, you know, her being from Iowa does not necessarily mean that he's going to then win Wisconsin, but it's more of a cultural fit than maybe his pitch to a place like Wisconsin. Having Joni Ernst camp out in a place like Wisconsin would definitely be helpful. You know, her background is also, in terms of balancing, pretty working class. Like she came to
Washington during the Tea Party wave, like with these ads that said, you know, like I grew up castrating hogs on a farm in Iowa. Like I'm going to, you know, her ad was like, I'm going to cut the fat in Washington. And so she, she has a very different vibe from Trump in a way that could be helpful. Like she does some of the things that Pence did, but she's not like the religious conservative. She's more of the like establishment conservative. Okay. I've said enough, but what do you guys think?
I think it's a good pick. I mean, I had her on my list as a woman, a senator, a veteran. I mean, she definitely checks a lot of boxes. And to your point, Galen, her profile is not one that is maybe automatically connected to Trump's in the way that a lot of other Republicans are. So that could
sort of speak to trying to broaden his appeal within his party, even into some, you know, some in the middle. Yeah. I mean, I guess I'd say the only thing is, has she signaled at all that this is something she wants? Again, I guess I'm, I'm a little bit less convinced that you guys are that being Trump's VP is a really plum position that anyone would want. I think it's plausible if someone like Joni Ernst has ambitions of going to the white house and,
They just kind of try to wait Trump out because she's younger. She's in the Senate. You know, it is. It's I don't know. I just think it's it's a little riskier than y'all seem to be implying. And she has as far as I know, she has not signaled that this is a thing that she wants.
I think that's fair. Yeah. Yeah. You never know when you're in the room and they're vetting you and they're like, you want it? Do you want you and you want to come to Washington? You want to be the vice president? Maybe she just needs to hear your pitch, Galen. She listened to the podcast. Maybe this is this is the argument she needs. If you're out there. No. OK, so because of the snake, I have to pick the next one as well.
And this one is like harder because I went with some, I don't know. Do I go in the same vein for the next one? Or do I- Almost exactly the same vein? That's what I'm thinking about. Yeah, exactly the same vein. Is it like, is it the person? Now you have to say who you think, because I think I know who it is. Sarah Huckabee Sanders?
Oh, that was actually slightly different than what I was expecting. Okay. I I'll, I'll go for it. I'll make the argument for Sarah Huckabee Sanders. First and foremost, they have a long relationship together. He has relied on Sarah Huckabee Sanders to represent his administration, you know, at the highest level of government and,
And she, you know, she's currently the youngest sitting governor in America at 40. She, you know, she has been elected statewide. So she's sort of seen as that sturdy, steady hand. You know, I think this is a bit more of a pitch towards religious conservatives than Joni Ernst would be.
you know, me and that's, I don't, I don't know. That's, I guess where I'm a little hesitant because had, if Sarah Huckabee Sanders were a bit more moderate, I think she would be like such an obvious choice given being young and having the background that they have together. So that's like the one hiccup here. Maybe I shouldn't have picked her. I don't know. Anyway, I think it's like,
if he wants somebody who he knows will be loyal through and through and has already been loyal, pretty much everyone else in his administration who had the opportunity to like turn on him and throw him under the bus has, and Sarah Huckabee Sanders has,
has not. She took the opportunity after leaving the White House to go make a career for herself in politics. She immediately got Trump's endorsement the minute she announced she was running for governor of Arkansas. She also knows how to be on TV and battle the media, and that's something that Trump values. So yeah, I won't speak anymore. But feel free to criticize that pick or add reasons that she should be picked because I didn't have enough of them.
Well, another thing is we've been talking about like what some of these people accept, and I think she would. And I think the reason for that – I think the reason for that is not only that she's connected to Trump in ways that some of the other names we've mentioned aren't as close to him. But I also think she wants to run for president one day, I bet. And if so –
You've got a huge number of people, many of whom who are not running this time around because they don't want to run against Trump, and so they're looking to the future. Well, what's a good way to put yourself out there so that people will know more about you and become more aware of you even if you lose?
I guess Trump could run again in 2028 or something. I mean, who the heck knows what, you know, anyway. But I just think that it would be a way to sort of jump to near or to the front of the line for future presidential aspirations. So that to me makes her like, I think from her standpoint, makes it appealing. That's a really good point. I think it makes more sense for her than it does for Trump. Yeah. Because she's not from a competitive state. She would appeal to Christian conservatives, but they're...
We don't see any signs that Christian conservatives are turning on Trump right now. And so I think apart from the loyalty, which Trump does value, you know, he might value that enough to pick her. I just don't see how she helps him
electorally. And Trump, I think, is going to be really conscious of that when he's choosing someone. So, you know, in a lot of ways, she does seem right. I just think she's not really from the right part of the country. And she's not going to help Trump bring in a part of the electorate that he can't bring in himself. All right. Back to you, Amelia. Okay. I'm going to choose a weird one, too. I am going to say Frances Suarez.
That one was on my list. Oh, I like it. That one was on my list. Here's why. Oh, really? Okay, okay, okay. I actually didn't have him down. So Francis Suarez, nobody had heard of him until very recently, but he has a lot of the things that I think are sort of like a kind of Trump glowy thing. Like he's hot. Like he's hot. He is really like...
I'm not going to comment on that. I guess he acts like he thinks he's hot. Is that the... So anyway, if Trump wants someone who is going to run with kind of like a similar macho brand but is much younger and sort of...
projects this idea of vigor and youth and I'm into crypto, so I'm really up and coming and into tech and the next generation. And he's Latino and, you know, he's from Florida. And I think he's just different enough now
that he also might seem, he might appeal to Trump as not being from the sort of older Republican establishment that he's also obviously has held elected office, is not a political newcomer, but is also not a senator. You know, he's someone who kind of threw his hat into the ring as mayor of Miami to run for president. And
I think Trump likes that kind of chutzpah. And I think the caveat is that I think Suarez would have to be doing a little bit better in the primary for Trump to consider him really seriously, because I think what he would have to show Trump is that he's got –
enough newness and pizzazz to capture voters attention. But I think if there is like a Suarez moment at some point in the next few months, he would definitely be a contender for Trump.
Yeah, I think he's a strong pick. And obviously he has been critical of Trump. But I think it's the kind of thing where they're both strong enough communicators that this whole like, yeah, I used to be anti-Trump, but I've come around and like, you know, I'll tell him when I disagree and we don't agree on everything. But like, well, like, it seems like they could massage that a bit to almost like work in their favor. Obviously, we've talked many times about this, but the softest,
part of the Democrats coalition is probably Latino voters and, you know, Arizona is going to be in play. Like Texas probably isn't in play in 2024, but like shoring up the Latino vote there. I mean, in other places as well that are going to be competitive. North Carolina has a big Latino population. Yes, growing Latino population in Wisconsin, Michigan. Like I think it makes a lot of sense. And I think the reason that you were right to pick
Francis Suarez before Vivek Ramaswamy is that Vivek Ramaswamy is too much of a showboat. Trump does not want somebody literally stealing like his whole limelight. Francis Suarez, I think, would play ball with Trump. And I think Trump would get like super annoyed with Vivek Ramaswamy. Well, and Vivek Ramaswamy is also like trying to run as a mini Trump. And
And I think Trump would also find that annoying. Like, you know, Suarez is kind of... And he doesn't balance in that way. If he's running as a mini-Trump, he's not balancing anything. Yeah, but I didn't even have Ramaswamy on my list, which was maybe an oversight. But yeah, but I just think if he's going to pick someone who's kind of like a...
newcomer slash underdog. The obvious one to me is Suarez. I mean, Suarez is interesting. Obviously being a mayor is not something that we've, that's not a position we've really seen as a stepping stone, but he's, he is running for president. I'm sure Suarez would, Suarez would accept. Yeah, I'm not worried about that. Guaranteed. I think a hundred percent on that one. I don't think unlike some of the others, like you might be able to write like some, some reasons why they might not. I think he would immediately say yes.
So. All right, Jeff, back to you then. Take it away. So actually the person I was thinking of, and this is coming on the heels actually of Trump criticizing her, was actually Governor Kim Reynolds of Iowa. That's who I thought you were going to say. She is the. Not on my list.
woman from the Midwest who could be useful for defending Trump and defending the Republican Party on stage. She's been in the news a lot over the state's sort of rightward turn. I think she'd have a lot of credibility with Republicans, but Republicans beyond just Trump. Now, she is at least trying to stay neutral in the Iowa caucuses, and that has frustrated Trump, who basically says,
your governor because I appointed your predecessor to be an ambassador and you became governor as a result. And so it's all my doing and why aren't you endorsing me? He basically sent something out on Truth Social saying that I don't invite her to events. But, you know, it's a while now from –
Needing to make these sorts of decisions and, you know, come next summer, would Reynolds accept if Trump came calling? I, you know, very well might. Because again, again, actually sort of similar to the Huckabee Sanders discussion, Reynolds could be an interesting national candidate, but she's probably not that familiar to a lot of people. And what better way to quickly move up
move up the ladder. I know he's a bad pick, but what do you, what do you think she brings to Trump that Sarah Huckabee Sanders doesn't? Well, she's a woman from the Midwest being from the Midwest. So it's like a, it's a regional thing. Yeah. I mean, that could make a difference. I was pretty red these days, but it's not as red as Arkansas. Look, there's still people confusing Ohio and Iowa swing States. So I, you know, it, it's going to have more swing state sort of credibility, uh,
Maybe than we think. Oh, the other pick. Yeah, so Reynolds clearly would not be someone who is sort of a loyalist type, which is also maybe another benefit with picking her. So what if I go with somebody who's a little out there but is a woman high up in Republican leadership in Washington? Elise Stefanik? Yes, that's who I'm going to pick.
Yeah, this one is so hard. I saw her when we were prepping. When I was prepping, I saw her on some lists. I don't see it. Man, I don't know. But make the case. Make the case. Okay. I think it's a situation where I would take this pick in part to say, well, maybe some others have said no. And so Trump is looking for somebody who will say yes and can at least bring some things to the table. She's
At this point, a veteran politician who knows a lot and is like high up in Republican leadership in Washington has connections with, you know, in terms of just, I guess, oiling connections with people in D.C. Obviously, Trump knows these people. But if, you know, if you need somebody to sort of
be an ambassador to other Republicans on the Hill who are maybe frustrated about something Trump said or what have you. She might be a strong choice. So I think it's more of a pick if others have said no or aren't interested. But we are getting a little lower down here. And I just think there are some other names, of course. There are obviously a lot of U.S. senators, a lot of people who have run against Trump before. I mean, Marco Rubio is on my list. Marco Rubio is on my list. I don't think someone like- I'm Marco Rubio's fan.
I don't think he's going to say I don't think I don't think Trump's going to pick him. And I don't think Rubio would want to say yes. So so what I'm saying is those are the names I have. Those are like the names I have on my list is like some other names or some people where I'm not sure they'd want to take the chance of being the number two. Or if if Trump is very committed to looking for some form of diversity in his VP pick, whether we're talking about gender or race or what have you, that he would not call up.
necessarily. So, so that's sort of where, where I landed with Stefanik. I think the list actually starts to get fun here. Um,
But Amelia, take it away. Okay. You know, so I'm going to bite. I'm going to be the one who says Carrie Lake. Look, the woman wants it. She clearly is out there auditioning for the role. And she is, she does have some things that are valuable to Trump, which is she's got the sort of charisma. She's good on TV. She's,
you know, check some boxes for diversity. And yes, she is not going to bring in extra moderates, but she's from a swing state. And I could see Trump being drawn to, uh,
of how she has kind of tried to carve out a path like his and how she plainly wants to be his VP. I mean, there's also a very significant chance that he finds that annoying and would not choose her for that reason. But, um...
But, you know, I mean, I think there's a reason that she gets talked about as a potential pick. She's high profile. She's charismatic. She's from Arizona. And she's the kind of, I don't know, she's the kind of person who I could see Trump wanting to run with. But she's also a loser.
Amelia. She is, but like, but she's, she's a loser the way Trump is though, right? No, she didn't lose. I know, but there's far less of a like consensus amongst national Republicans that Carrie Lake really won. Like, I don't even think most Republicans know who Carrie, I mean, I think most Republicans kind of hardly know who Carrie Lake is. And, and,
I don't think that they've been receiving the message that, oh, she really did win. And also, I don't know, who knows what Trump thinks, but like in his heart of hearts, does he think of Carrie Lake as a winner? No, he would much rather pick Carrie Lake if she was the governor of Arizona right now. Well, totally. I mean, if she were the governor of Arizona, I think she would be at the top of all of us. We would have already picked her. We would have picked her already. There's a reason she's my third best pick. Fair enough, fair enough.
But yeah, but I think she's like, look, she's got to be in the mix, guys. It's just she's put herself out there too much for us not to mention her. She's done the work. A for effort. This is an A for effort pick. A for effort. A for effort. Yeah, exactly. This is like you get your like tried really hard trophy. I think it is highly unlikely, but I could I could see it. It is not. And I think I could I could probably even see it more than Elise Stefanik. Sorry, Jeff.
I have a lot of, I have a lot more picks here. I don't know who to go with next. Okay. I think I'm going to go with somebody who has appeared on the lists. So this is not original. And the reporting around her is a little like inside baseballery in a way that I find annoying, but Nancy Mace representative from South Carolina. So she is somebody who is a known moderate. She's pretty outspoken. She's on Fox constantly and,
And she was also pretty anti-Trump, especially after January 6th. She had just been sworn in to Congress and she was on Fox day after day saying that she was appalled by what happened. She ultimately didn't vote to impeach Trump. I think in part because she...
is ambitious and wants a future in the Republican party. Reporting suggests that she's now even consider it would consider or wants to be his running mate. So based on that inside baseball reporting, maybe she would actually take it, but here's what she adds. One, the moderate independent voice kind of thing that provides some balancing to, she's a really strong communicator. She's on Fox constantly. She's used to talking to Republicans and even like can, can,
rhetorically get over the like Trump anti-Trump divide in the party because that's where she's placed herself, like in the middle of that conflict.
back to the law and order sort of narrative. She's a graduate of the Citadel and has, you know, has a story to tell there as one of the first women to graduate from the Citadel in South Carolina. She's young, you know, like she has a young, charismatic vibe. I probably already said everything, but what do you guys think? I think the one issue I have is Trump has actually actively endorsed a primary opponent of hers.
So I wonder about that. Now, granted, it does seem like she has changed her tune a bit recently. There was even a Politico article with the headline, The New Trump Acolyte No One Saw Coming, Nancy Mace. So I don't know, in the wake of some of these indictments and whatnot, she's been, I think, more defensive of Trump. So, I mean, maybe there's a...
you know, a detente and even a possibility that she would make for a compelling VP pick. So, I mean, I wouldn't rule it out by any means.
She's interesting to me because she has been one of the few Republican women on the national level who has really come out and said that the GOP is going too far on abortion. She said Republicans, Democrats need to find a middle ground, that the stance on abortion is going to alienate women from the party, right?
So that is potentially a plus if Republicans are worried that they are, in fact, alienating people with their stance on abortion. On the other hand, I think she would really she would picking her would really make anti-abortion folks worried.
in the GOP base angry because she's really gone out of her way to say that they're pushing the party too far out of the mainstream and that Republicans will lose because of them and that this is not something that they should be focusing on the way they are. Do I think those people would not vote for Trump? No, I mean, they're not going to vote for Biden. Trump himself has already tried to
he's landed and already landed in a pretty wishy-washy place on abortion. And so I don't think he needs more of that on his ticket. Yeah, which is maybe a good argument for going back to Sarah Huckabee Sanders. It's true. It's true. If you want to make anti-abortion voters happy, she is a great pick. Okay, so my, I don't know, are we starting to get weird here? Yeah, what's your weird pick? My weird pick is Brian Kemp.
He's on my list. He's like the least weird man. He's on my list. He's not weird. Prime. I mean, I guess he's not weird, but he's like maybe unexpected. Like who else has split so notoriously with Trump in the heat of the 2020 election? And then had Trump endorse a challenger, end up winning and sort of like shove his victory in the
I mean, he himself has kept a very low profile when it comes to criticizing Trump apart from the 2020 election. But like, I mean, that the media shoved Brian Kemp's victory in Trump's face, even if Brian Kemp himself didn't shove his victory in Trump's face. And like, what better way to bring the party together and sort of show that
We're here to bring along people who doubt, you know, some of Trump's weirder tendencies, anti-democratic tendencies, and
And he also is the governor of a prime swing state in 2024. And he's got the adult in the room thing. I mean, he doesn't bring the racial or gender diversity to the ticket, but he does bring a stellar Southern accent. Yeah, it's just funny that you call him a weird pick when he is like such a...
A really strong, like, 2028 possibility for the Republican Party. Yeah, fair enough, fair enough. Just a normal man. Okay, Amelia, take it away. Okay, so I...
As I said, spent some time looking at Republican celebrities. The list is not very long. And the one who rose to the top of that list for me, the most compelling option, if Trump wants to pick someone who is not a politician, who's going to provide entertainment value, maybe distract a little bit from his ongoing trials, is Kid Rock.
Kid Rock has already. Michigan, Michigan, baby. Michigan. So, okay, yes, he's from Michigan. He's from Michigan. That's the first thing you guys said. So, you know, like basically he wins the state of Michigan for Trump single-handedly, right? So that's good. I would love, love, love to see the kind of like tit for tat that would go on between Kid Rock and Gretchen Whitmer during that campaign.
Also, with the debate between Kid Rock and Kamala Harris would... Event of the century. Political event of the century. Event of the century. I mean, it just would... It would have more viewers maybe than the presidential debate. That's true. I mean, maybe Trump wouldn't want it for that reason. But I just think, you know, he's expressed interest. He's joked about running for office in Michigan. People know who he is. I don't think he's like... I don't think he's widely disliked. He's disliked by some people for sure.
But he has a lot of fans and I don't know. I mean, we are doing this like late nineties, early aughts nostalgia thing. It's of the moment. It's of the moment. You want to get Gen Z. Maybe they, they won't, they won't remember. They won't understand like where Kid Rock is coming from ideologically. They'll be very confused. They'll just, they'll just be like, Oh, this guy's cool. Like he's from the nineties. And, uh, and why not? Yeah.
So that's my weird pick, which I would argue is much weirder than Galen's. Yes. I think I followed instructions better. It's an exceedingly weird pick. All right, Jeff. Thank you, Jeff. Oh, the last pick.
Let me just run through it. I don't think he'd pick Kristi Noem because I think there's some scandal stuff swirling with her with the – I think it was the flights and whatnot. I just don't think – Trump is going to have plenty of that to bring to the table, and I just think he's going to try to pick a VP he doesn't want. Glenn Youngkin, Virginia would be interesting except I think Glenn Youngkin is like five inches taller than Trump.
And I don't think Trump would be down with that. I literally have heard somebody say that to me as like a reason. And I was like, that is an interesting thought that in like photo ops, Trump's usually like the tallest guy roughly. So it's an interesting, interesting stuff. Cause young can play basketball. All right. So who are you picking?
Well, I mean, that's the... I just want to hear Jeff cross off the names of every other Republican in the country. So then I have Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, you know, all the presidential wannabes who will run in 2028. I have two remaining that I think are interesting. So I don't think he would pick Marjorie Taylor Greene, but she has been making subtle movements back towards sort of like, you know...
Not really toward the GOP establishment that much, but enough that Lauren Boebert's mad at her, apparently. And then I think the pick for me, though, in sort of a similar vein to Sarah Huckabee Sanders is Katie Britt. Katie Britt. Wait, she's on my list, Jeff. Interesting.
Okay. I literally have it right here. So she's my pick. Okay. She's my pick. Senator from Alabama. Youngest Republican woman ever elected to the Senate. I think she would bring some of the same energy as Huckabee Sanders, except I think she would... She is not viewed as, I think, nearly as combative. So I just think she would be an interesting choice. Bring some of those things, maybe...
You know, if we're looking for a woman with like a national, at least some national profile, she would fit the bill. I mean, but she's not, I don't know. She's not like a spotlighty person. Yeah, but does Trump want a spotlighty person? That's the question, right? I don't think he necessarily does. Guaranteed to not distract. That could be something he wants. She's also, I think, kind of a clean image, you know, and if he wants like a contrast. Yeah, that's very interesting, Jeff. I like that.
to the balancing point, you know, like she has good relationships to the establishment of the party, like the chamber, the old school chamber of commerce, Republican party, like that's her. She was a president and CEO of the business council of Alabama. She was the chief of staff for Richard Shelby, who was, you know, one of the like,
Old school Democrats who became a Republican, very like establishment-y in the Senate, an attorney. So I'm sure she can sort of like, you know, make her point well on television, or one would hope at least. Got a lot of faith in attorneys, Kaelin. I mean, attorneys, like podcast hosts, are paid to talk.
Not all of them. Some of them are paid to review contracts. Right, right, right. Some of them are just paid to highlight things and yeah. Yeah, exactly. Stay up until two o'clock in the morning. Yeah, I almost picked her instead of Brian Kemp. So I concur. And on that strong pick, we are going to wrap up this VP draft. Thank you, Amelia and Jeff for joining me today.
Thanks, Galen. Thanks for having me, Galen. My name is Galen Druk. Tony Chow is in the control room. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcasts at 538.com. You can also, of course, tweet at us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple Podcast Store or tell someone about us. Thanks for listening and we'll see you soon.
