It's Not Yet Time To Start Worrying About The Polls

Publish Date: 2022/9/15

FiveThirtyEight Politics

Chapters

Shownotes Transcript

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners.

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It's Not Yet Time To Start Worrying About The Polls

FiveThirtyEight Politics

Chapters

What's Behind the Recent Movement in the Forecast?

How Should We Think About the Current Political Forecast?

What Role Do Special Elections Play in the Forecast?

How Does the Model Handle Incumbency and Polling Data?

What Are the Key Components of the Election Forecast?

How Does Inflation Data Affect the Election Outlook?

Are There Trends in Polling Errors That Could Affect the Forecast?

How Do Internal Campaign Polls Influence Perceptions?

What Are the Personal Views on Certain Races Compared to the Model?

How Likely Is a Georgia Runoff to Decide the Senate Balance?

What Role Does Media Coverage Play in Shaping Voter Behavior?

Final Thoughts and Advice on Debating Polls

Shownotes Transcript

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It's Not Yet Time To Start Worrying About The Polls 55:13

FiveThirtyEight Politics

Chapters

What's Behind the Recent Movement in the Forecast?

How Should We Think About the Current Political Forecast?

What Role Do Special Elections Play in the Forecast?

How Does the Model Handle Incumbency and Polling Data?

What Are the Key Components of the Election Forecast?

How Does Inflation Data Affect the Election Outlook?

Are There Trends in Polling Errors That Could Affect the Forecast?

How Do Internal Campaign Polls Influence Perceptions?

What Are the Personal Views on Certain Races Compared to the Model?

How Likely Is a Georgia Runoff to Decide the Senate Balance?

What Role Does Media Coverage Play in Shaping Voter Behavior?

Final Thoughts and Advice on Debating Polls

Shownotes Transcript

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It's Not Yet Time To Start Worrying About The Polls