"Donald Trump Has Made Democrats Great" (Again) 01:01:10

On September 28th, the Global Citizen Festival will gather thousands of people who took action to end extreme poverty. Join Post Malone, Doja Cat, Lisa, Jelly Roll, and Raul Alejandro as they take the stage with world leaders and activists to defeat poverty, defend the planet, and demand equity. Download the Global Citizen app today and earn your spot at the festival. Learn more at globalcitizen.org.com.

On September 28th, the Global Citizen Festival will gather thousands of people who took action to end extreme poverty. Join Post Malone, Doja Cat, Lisa, Jelly Roll, and Raul Alejandro as they take the stage with world leaders and activists to defeat poverty, defend the planet, and demand equity. Download the Global Citizen app today and earn your spot at the festival. Learn more at globalcitizen.org slash bots. It's on!

Hi, everyone from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. This is a spy balloon with 100% less hot air. Just kidding. This is on with Kara Swisher and I'm Kara Swisher. And I hope we stop making spy balloon jokes because I'm tired of them just like the lettuce head jokes. So but wait, I have one more. All right. Okay. One more. One more.

And I'm Naima Raza. Yes, 1,000% less hot air than the Marjorie Taylor green hot air balloon stunt. Yeah, what was her stunt? Her balloon stunt. She was walking around. That's a stunt. It was successful for her because like the Cruella Bridezilla outfit, she does these things that are made for social media. She does, yes. They go viral. That is correct. So they're meaningless. Like everyone's focused on her interrupting. This is part of her wanting to get moments either to fundraise or to put on social media. She does no governing. She does only stunts. It's just...

It's nothing about substance. And that's really the problem here is that everything is designed for a TikTok or an Instagram or Twitter or whatever they happen to be. Isn't that where the electorate is? No, they're not. They've shown that they're different in the voting. It's where the politicians are, which is mired in memes, but it's not where everybody else is. No, I don't think that.

Speaking of substance, State of the Union. Yeah, it was a very solid speech. I think one of the things that I had talked about the night before, based on a Josh Tarantino piece in the New York Times, was that, why do we do it this way? Why is it just the speech, stand up, sit down, sit down? Why aren't there charts? Why isn't there video? I thought the January 6th committee did a very good job of changing out the thing, and it wasn't that complicated. I mean, you're someone who makes...

video and everything. It's so antiquated in a way that, and it doesn't have to be that way. I think January 6th, the committee was, it was powerful, but obviously played to an echo chamber. People who wanted to pay attention paid attention. People who thought it was irrelevant didn't. And that's kind of the problem of our time. But I think you learn so much from watching how people interact with one another. Even on the entry to the floor, you don't get to see lawmakers in that kind of setting. And the heckling, they were heckling Biden hard at points. And he really kind of fought back.

I'm going to revolutionize the State of the Union. President Karina Swisher. I think, you know, why not have a video? Like, make it a show. That's what it is anyway. Although, like, British politics feels like a show when you watch Parliament, and they are just speaking, but they're so good at it. They're so good at it, and that's where Marjorie Taylor Greene thought she was, apparently, in Parliament. Getting up and yelling. And heckling. It's like, sit down, Boris Johnson. Sit down. She made her coat out of Boris Johnson's hair. I don't know if you noticed. I did notice.

I want to get to our interview with three Democratic masterminds in a second. But before we get there, I want to do a quick discussion of the social media portion of Biden's speech last night. So let's hear a clip. We must finally hold social media companies accountable for experimenting or doing running children for profit. It's time to pass bipartisan legislation to stop big tech from collecting personal data on our kids and teenagers online.

and targeted advertising to children, and impose stricter limits on the personal data that companies collect on all of us.

A message everyone there could get behind. We should finally do it. If only we had a thing called Congress that could pass laws. If only there were people in a room where they voted. It's ridiculous. I'm so tired. So it was all for show? No, it's just crap. This is the same thing they've done over and over again. And then they fail to pass legislation. They fail, they fail, they fail. And meanwhile, big tech is chugging along with AI and chat GPT and whatever the heck, BARD or

Ernie or whatever, they're all just going ahead and there's no legislation. This is fully Congress's and the executive branch's fault for never passing anything, never making it a priority and spending a lot of time yelling from the cheap seats, which is- Yeah, while accepting their donations and their lobbying. But Biden ran on this last time, right? He ran on breaking up big tech. During COVID, the president had said that- Killing people. Social media companies were killing people and then he walked it back.

So, you know, everybody last night was saying, is Biden eyeing another run? Did you hear the social media and fentanyl portions of this where everyone was cheering as like things to run on? Oh, we're against fentanyl? You're kidding. We're against fentanyl. Yeah, exactly. Come on. Like pass something then. Pass them this. They just aren't going to pass these things because they are captive of lobbyists and they're captive of their own fears of having ads put against them. You know what I love about you, Cara? Hmm.

Your sunny side optimism. I just don't think it's years. I found a column I wrote in 1990. I don't remember or not in the 2000s again where Google was trying to take over Yahoo search. And I was like, they are thugs. They are thugs. They are trying to get through. And this is when they were half as powerful, quarter as powerful. Honestly, Democrats, that's what I say. Honestly, Democrats. But let's get into our panel today because we really wanted to take this moment to discuss on the back of the State of the Union what the state of the Democratic Party is like.

It's a big question now. We're on the edge of what reports suggest will be a likely announcement by President Biden saying that he's seeking a second term. And we're in a moment where many, I think many Democrats have been distracted by the kind of schadenfreude of the Kevin McCarthy trials and the kind of mess that is the GOP and maybe papering over some issues that need to be solved in the Democratic camp, but kind of rallying around the flag that's happened since the Paul Pelosi attack as well.

You know, we focused on Republicans before in this area, and we love a Democrats in disarray story. Now that's this one. They're always in disarray. But we have three guests to help us cut through the chatter and give us real insight on what's going on with the Dems. Naima, can you introduce them? We have three very savvy strategists here to talk to us. Faz Shakir, who is Bernie Sanders' 2020 campaign manager.

Jennifer Palmieri, the former White House comms director from the Obama administration. She also advised Hillary Clinton. Yeah. And then Tom Bonier, the CEO of Target Smart, which is one of the premier data firms in Democratic politics. Carrie, you know Jen well, right? Yes, I do. I know Jen very well. And I've always been an admirer of Tom. I thought he's been right about a lot of things. And I'm very excited about FAS because obviously Bernie Sanders' campaign was very effective in changing the party's agenda. Sure was. What's your biggest question for these three?

I just want to get an idea of where it's going and how you break these deadlocks, how you get a functioning democracy going when you have Marjorie Taylor Greene cosplaying the White Witch of Narnia. That's fair. Yeah, I'm interested to hear how they think candidates should take on some of these wedge issues. We heard from Brooke Jenkins on Monday about how people are trying to box her in.

This is the SFDA. Yes, the SFDA. And next week, we have a couple of key Democratic and Republican lawmakers onto the show. They really want to understand how these narrative wars are playing out and how the Democratic candidates can win them. Yeah, and then we'll be done with politicians and get to the really interesting celebrities, hopefully. You really want to get Bonnie Raitt, don't you? Yeah. Okay, let's take a quick break, and we'll be back with Paz Shakir, Jennifer Palmieri, and Tom Bonier. Hey, everybody.

All right. Welcome, Faz, Tom and Jen. I'm so excited to talk about these issues. Obviously, we have to start with the State of the Union. I'd love for each of you to give sort of your thoughts on it. Go ahead, Jen. So I think that what was good about the speech was that there was not pressure on him. You know, it was it's not an election year. He didn't have a big policy proposal that he was trying to sell like health care. And so he was able to just sort of be Biden. And also, I think what they wanted to do is like proof of concept.

Maybe your economic circumstances aren't great yet, but let me show you why my way is working. Let me show you that democracy can work. And let me show you, like, I get it, particularly in all the, you know, when he's talking about

Teachers shouldn't pay less taxes than billionaires. And he's talking about even things that just like annoying fees in your life that like he gets union organizing. America's tired of being played for as suckers, you know, these kinds of things. Now, it's not that the words were any different from what he often says, but we don't get to hear it in the context of like a full speech where he's not trying to sell you on something else. And I think that it all just resonated more. So even though things aren't,

great necessarily in people's lives. He's like, look, we're going to finish the job. Things are getting better. Democracy can work. My way can work. And I get what your life is about. All right, Fez. Two points jumped out to me. One is that Jobine by nature is a peacemaker. He's a very affable and genial and kind individual in reality and in the way he presents. And what that often means is he's not in friction. He's not in fights. He's trying to dissipate fights.

But what he got an opportunity to do is document and demonstrate some key fights. He got to throw out a veto threat a couple of times. He got to really pick on, in an appropriate way, the Republican majority. So you got to see some more friction out of the guy, which I think, if you're listening to a lot of Democrats, they liked it. That's what we want to see a little bit more of. And the second point is...

is that Joel Biden is old school, as we all know. And part of being old school is that I think sometimes his authenticity is not appreciated for what it is. It's not an ideological authenticity. We're not talking about Bernie Sanders, who's been for the same positions for 40 years of his life. We're talking about a political authenticity. He knows he's comfortable in his own skin, which means that he'll evolve around issues. And if you go back in time to old school Senate, this is what people used to be. They used to come to the Senate with the old form of representative democracy. I'm here to not only represent my constituents, but

But kind of make some decisions for myself about what they might like and move on issues. So you'd have unlikely pairings. You'd have Republicans vote with Democrats and those kinds of things. Doesn't happen as much anymore. Old school. Old school. But Joe Biden is still cut from that. That's his politics. So he will move on issues.

but do so in a way that is consistent with this is comfortable in my skin. When I move on this issue, you're going to know and feel that. And I think that's what came across. You see somebody who's very comfortable engaging in the back and forth. All right. Tom? Yeah. And let me preface this by saying I am far from a messaging expert. So this is like my perspective on it. And I will say, as I'm watching it, at first, my frame is, well,

The reason why Democrats overperformed where we did last year was where we were able to expose Republican extremism and put it on the ballot. And the Dobbs decision was a huge component of that, where I think it lent credibility to it. And so part of me was I wanted to see him drawing them out and calling them out. And the fact that, you know, initially I look and, well, he doesn't, he didn't mention choice until very late. He didn't talk about democracy until very late. And initially I thought, is that a mistake? And then as it went on, I realized, look, it's genius. He was drawing them out.

And putting them, the extremism was on display and what everyone's talking about today in terms of the outbursts, in terms of the shushing, Kevin McCarthy having to try to quiet his caucus. And Biden was so comfortable and so natural and going out and presenting what seems like a very bipartisan speech and a very bipartisan agenda, but one that they just haven't supported. But it came across as very rational and reasonable and they came across it.

as extremists. And so I have to admit, like my initial hot take on it three quarters of the way through was just wrong. And that I thought he did an incredible job.

All right. Jen, you're a messaging expert. How much of a difference does a good State of the Union make? Does it make a difference? It's a good foundation. It's like the way you have to look at it. I mean, you know, I remember we would we would say like, wow, if only we could get that speech every night, because 72% of the American public were saying that they liked it, like you'd be in a great position, but you can't get that speech every night. You can't break through that way every night.

It does not, it doesn't last. You know, I wouldn't expect to see a big bump in his approval ratings because of this. But like, but it is a foundation for where you can operate from the rest of the year. When you get into the debt limit fight, people can come back to this moment and they'll remember that, you know, it's kind of that,

that fight is set up better now for the Democrats. And then also it just shows what he is capable of, the argument that he can make for reelection. So I think those are the benefits from it. State unions are not what they used to be. They don't get the audience that they used to, but still tens of millions of people have watched that and it does help.

So it was a populist speech that focused on economics. He talked a lot about bringing manufacturing jobs back, bringing pride back to hollowed out communities. And when it comes to populism, this idea of populism, do you think he's the credible messenger in that way? Do people buy that, that idea of him? This is where I think the polling doesn't always appreciate in respect where Biden is and his strength, because I think a core Democrat like my friend who I love dearly, Jennifer Palmieri, you know, she and I might answer

question differently about how's the economy doing, is Joe Biden's policy succeeding, etc. But what might distinguish us is I might say, hey, the economy isn't working for everyone yet. But when you put me in the polling booth, me and Jennifer are going to be exactly the same. We're going to register support for Joe Biden coming at it from a different perspective. And so the people who might associate with my viewpoints are not currently categorized

as Joe Biden core, right? And aren't reflected in his support, but will come around and so his support ends up being higher. And part of the reason for that, Kara, is what you're pointing at, is that he has shown himself willing to fight on working class issues. Is he all the way there? No. But his architects around him, whether it be Lena Conroe, Hitchhiker, all the people you know well, they're doing the job and he is backing them up, whether it's talking about the junk fees, talking about an antitrust agenda. He's got their backs and he's finding a way to sell that

politically, and that's critically important. I think that over time, there's a lot of work to do to address this education divide in America, that the non-college people who are not currently with us, that we need to get back to Democrat ranks. That's a longer fight and a horizon, but Biden is starting that political argument to bring them back because they've been built in with deep cynicism for decades and decades that government doesn't work for them. And he's starting that train to say,

It will. And I'll show you. So let's talk about the rest of Biden's term with the Republican House. Biden couldn't get meaningful legislation passed. So he's basically limited to signing executive orders with an eye towards 2024. What should three priorities be? Let's start with you, Jen. Implementation is like a bit, you know, there could be three priorities within that, you know, infrastructure, getting that like well underway, you

the climate work from the Inflation Reduction Act, which, you know, Americans actually want to see across the board. These are popular things. And then I think it's the contrast with the Republicans. And they're going to

You know, it's not going to be an easy couple of years, but in sort of like what the political map is, how the president should should navigate this. It's it's it's pretty clear. I've worked for both President Clinton and President Obama and, you know, in reelects. And we we've seen this before now.

conservative houses that take over in the midterm. They go too far and it results in a Democratic president getting reelected. All right, Tom, I couldn't possibly improve on what Jennifer said. So I'll say me too to all of that. And I guess the only other element I wrestle with again is like, how do we continue to give a platform when we talk about issues of choice and the sort of new post-Obs America to ensure that we

you know, aren't letting this go. And I think he has the opportunity. I think he's done a good job with this. And I think over the next two years. So choice still resonates. Absolutely. I mean, I got this, you know, going on CNN a few months after in September of last year and talking about this and being asked by the interviewer, well, do people really still care about the Dobbs decision? It was a few months ago and thinking, well, God, of course, you know, half the population lost the fundamental human right that they've, you know, had in a 50 year time.

precedent, yeah, I think choice will not only continue to resonate, I think it'll be elevated in a lot of these places because you're seeing Democrats realize the impact it had that we could talk about. Before the election last year, we were questioning. You didn't know. When people thought a red wave was coming, everyone said, well, we're talking about choice and democracy too much. We need to talk about the economy more. And then we see, actually, no, we can walk and chew gum. And I think that's what...

we need to see from the president, which again, I think he's done a good job with, and I think we will continue to see. Taz? I liked the previous answer, so I'll just add three different ones. I'm so hell-bent on focusing on these non-college educated, multiracial, working class coalition folks that we need to bring back, so I'm targeting them specifically, who may not be with us, but could potentially be with us. So one is, obviously pharmaceuticals, any poll will tell you that prescription drug pricing is just wildly popular on both sides. I

I would love to see some more effort out of the CMS and HHS in general, Biden's health care agencies, whether it's reimportation from Canada, whether it's a most favored nation drug pricing. I would love to see something like that out of an executive order. Number two would be speaking to...

this incredible union organizing wave that we've seen with Starbucks and Amazon, that there needs to be some accountability on this. They aren't going to get first contracts unless Biden kind of throws down some weight here. And that could be done in the form of federal contracting or some kind of deprivation or stick. There needs to be some kind of a stick to force them to the table with these workers to get a first contract. And number three is,

You know, we went through that rail fight and we couldn't get them the paid sick leave. Now they're trying to work with the union, with their companies to do it in CSX, as I understand, has struck a kind of a deal on that. But maybe an executive authority to expand sick leave to real workers. So worker rights. Yes. Worker rights. Worker rights, broadly. Obviously, the State of the Union is designed to convey strength, but I want to get...

a realistic assessment of the challenges he's up against. I'll run through a few hurdles. And you tell me your short assessment of if and how it hurts Biden. I'm going to have each of you answer different ones. Faz, I'm going to start with you. The negotiation over the debt limit. You worked for Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. I mean, so he's obviously struck a very strong tone on Social Security and Medicare.

And that is appropriate. That is right. And basically, we saw a real time pledge a thon happened last night in which he got the vast majority of Congress to agree with him that they that Social Security, Medicare should be off the table, which is great.

I would like a step further where it has to be a clean debt ceiling increase. That's the bottom line. That's the red line you're drawing. Because in other words, you're inviting discussion and conversation for other forms of budget cuts, which I think it seems like he's open to, which is fine. That's what a normal legislative process is for. It shouldn't be tied to a debt ceiling. So I would love to see him just say, it's a clean debt ceiling increase, full stop. And then after we get that done, you and I, we can sit down and chat about whatever you'd like to chat about.

All right, Jen, I'm going to get this one. You get the famous one, the Biden family investigation in the House. I think that the public will not like the family investigations. There's some oversight the Republican Congress may do that's worthwhile looking into Afghanistan. Sure. Legit.

uh what happened with covid we should go back and like under and understand that the family stuff hunter biden like i just don't think like the public is not going to like this it's a very sad story um i think there's a lot of sympathy for uh for the biden family um i'll tell you you know i've worked with both obama and clinton when they went through these um kinds of investigations they were both sort of able to compartmentalize and put this that aside not take it personally you know

This stuff wears on Joe Biden, though. I got to say, like, you know, when people attack his family, like he feels it. So I think it will be tough for him personally. But I don't think it's going to actually hurt him. Move people. But Afghanistan and the COVID. Yeah, that's legit, right? That's legit oversight. That's what Congress is supposed to do. But these other ones, I think, will probably, you know, the best day of the Clinton campaign was the day that Hillary testified from the Benghazi committee. I mean, I'm not it's not a joke. It was like hands down.

They didn't know what they were doing. They were, you know, and I'm not sure how great the Republicans are going to be at these hearings anyway. Yeah. Likely to overreach or likely not handle them well. Marjorie Taylor Greene not cloaking herself in glory the last week on, you know, and how she's handled hearings, too. So I think that they're likely to be bad at it. All right. Now, Tom, the FBI investigation into classified documents. By the way, if anyone disagrees, please speak up. But Tom, you take the FBI investigation. Yeah. I mean, the trick there is.

Democrats were not always great at explaining things, especially when there's any level of nuance. And so this was an issue that was going to be a clean issue and would be a real liability for Trump. And I think for most people, in reality, the distinction is clear in terms of the difference. I think what the president and his team have done is a perfect example of how these things should be handled. And that contrast is there. I don't think

I don't know if it'll be brought out in these hearings or not. I think that'll be an interesting question. And so... So just shy away from attacking Trump anymore on this one? Yeah, I mean, that's the problem. In order to attack Trump on it now, we need to be able to make that distinction. And can we make that quickly? And we're not always good at that. We're not always good at drawing those distinctions. I'm curious what Jennifer thinks about this and what she would do. Well, I mean, it's...

I would, you know, I just, I would not, it's not that I would want to talk about. I would not want to, like, talk about Trump at all, you know, basically at all, but particularly with the documents. But regardless of what the administration of the White House wants to have happen, the Justice Department, you know, these things are going to exist. They have special counsels and

of things and they're going to make some kind of ruling and it, an indictment of Trump for something that Joe Biden will probably be cleared of is kind of likely to happen or certainly very possible to happen. And then he can say unfair. Yes. And then you can say, he'll say unfair. He'll say what he was always going to say. And I think it'll probably, you know, everybody will probably go to their corners on that. If you're, you know, a Democrat or a

you know, or an independent, you're likely to side with Biden and the Republicans will side with Trump. The one thing I have noticed in like paying attention to Trump rallies and going to Trump rallies, his, even his base is not that riled up on the grievance front. Like they don't love it when they hear him complain about how he's being treated. So I don't know, I don't buy this notion that like, oh, it's great for him if he gets indicted. Like, no, it is not. It's not a good day for you, but that's coming. All of that is coming and it's going to be messy. Yeah.

For Biden. Could I on the laptop hearings, which are kicking off and as Jennifer mentioned, you know, the interesting thing that I noticed today, if I'm correct, is that the White House gave their exclusive statement to Fox News on this and where they called it a bizarre political stunt, which I sort of love that they're going right to work because it's a notion that like, look, you're the only ones who are going to be talking about this. We're going to call it what it is.

And I thought that was like a perfect sort of response as Justin. Again, it was something we saw in the State of the Union was this sort of like joyful, like we're going to engage with you. We're going to tell you that you're kind of out there. And I think that's a great message. It doesn't work with –

the FBI documents investigation. Obviously, it's a serious investigation that they've taken seriously, but I thought it was a good approach. But the Twitter files, but the Twitter files, go ahead, Fass. But on the FBI documents, just to return to it, I mean, what we're all holding out hope on and to understand is what did Trump do with the documents?

We all know there's an over classification problem in the national security apparatus. All kinds of documents get labeled, even journalistic articles that shouldn't be. And so if you're holding on to them, is that a crime? I think that's a worthy debate to say, really, is that a crime? What did you do with it? What did you do with it? What was the purpose and intent? Were you trying to make money off? Were you trying to provide this information to other people who shouldn't have it?

That, I hope, is what this is building towards because that's where you're going to see the clear disparity, right? You're going to see what did Trump actually attempt to do and how we're building to that. That's a good point. All right. Now, Faz, I'm going to ask you this one. What about Biden's age, disconnected from young voters? Is it a liability for him? It is. I mean, on...

being honest, of course we all know that it's a liability for him. And I think the only way in which he dealt wrestles with it is to show the energy he had last night. I think that was intentional by design. Like, Hey, here it is max. And like, I'm going to give you some fire. Right. But I, I think like at the end of the day, I felt this way about Bernie. And when I,

you know, ran his campaign is that that's such a personal that you got to feel that you've got the energy. If you feel it, you got it. We get behind you like a freight train, but don't, don't tell us that you're at a hundred. If you're not at a hundred, like let's level with us and be honest with us because we're all going to get behind you like a freight train. We all know that the,

The primary will largely be cleared for him. He will have this nomination. It will be his. But that's another six years, right, of him owning this chair. Knock on wood that he wins that reelection. And I think if he shows up the way he did last night, he will. But, you know, he's got to feel like that's a personal decision. I got this. I can do this for another six. You know, and I hope if and when he makes that decision, that is where he lands. Doesn't it feel like they, I mean, the White House, the Biden team,

I think, learned something from last year because we saw last year his numbers, his approval numbers with young voters were worse than any. It was sort of flip side of what you would usually see. They were giving them the lowest approval ratings. And then what you saw, and we didn't see youth engagement really around voter registration. After Dobbs, we saw an increase. But then after the student debt forgiveness in late August, you actually saw youth voter registration spike. And like, I think they saw something that, you know,

them taking action was actually going to have an impact there. I will say there's a lot of weird and bad polling out there now with young voters because the last couple, the ABC poll, Washington Post poll that came out in the last week, they're showing Trump

beating Biden with younger voters. I mean, that's not going to happen. It's a whole nother conversation. Jen? Yeah, I mean, I do see like out in the road, I saw weirdly some support among young people with Trump, which just seems to me to be an expression of frustration. And like, I think when you actually, once you do the campaign, you're able to win them over. Like it did that, the student debt thing really did seem to

matter, I guess. And FAS would know more about this, but I feel like maybe it's just people like, well, we did something, but something changed, something measurable, something tangible. Not only in substance, Jennifer, but also in political affect, which is to say to the progressive coalition, which Biden does better than I think most prior presidents, is that

The progressives are part of my being in this office. I must deliver things that a progressive coalition would like to see that Bernie can get out there, that Elizabeth Warren can get out there and say, I helped push Joe Biden to do X. So that there's a political effect in addition to tangibly I did something that would improve your life. Yeah. And I feel like that was Ron. That was Ron Flay. And, you know, Ron is today's Ron's last day. White House staff.

But Anita's going to be there. Like they know, you know, they know what they need to do. It's not always easy to deliver, but they know what they need to do. Well, but he's got strength with old people. He leans into it and it's great. And then he needs the surrogates. He needs Bernie and others who have strength with young people to feel like they can get out and say positive things about him. That's what has been part of his success. So what is student loan of this era?

I think there's still a lot of room to run on labor. I mean, when you look at... I do too. I think that's right. I mean, the polling on this, and Tom can speak to a little bit. I mean, it's not only strong nationally, but like among young people generationally, it's incredibly strong. You look at the Starbucks workers, they literally exemplify. If you look at most of those workers, they are people carrying college debt. They're young people trying to say, I want to collect a voice in the ownership and the runnership.

We'll be back in a minute.

So let's talk specifically about the prospects for 2024. Joe Manchin hasn't ruled out the possibility of running for president. Faz, is he a threat? I mean, everyone's going to be a spoiler. Do they want to be a spoiler of Joe? Sure, you could be a spoiler. There's no one's going to primary Biden besides Marianne Williamson, correct?

I would be shocked. I'd be shocked if anyone did. Correct. And, you know, he's earned it to a degree and he's got to continue to say, I am a Democratic president, representative of a coalition in which progressives are part of it. So, yeah, as long as he keeps doing that part, if you were not to do it, obviously, I think it would be a very open and wild primary. I don't think anybody will. For a while, you know, Cara, I thought that maybe Newsom might do it, might be the one to be like,

I have a trifecta state which is in California. I've done all these things and I'm the progressive and just if, you know, if it looked like Biden was weak, but I don't, I don't, I just don't think anybody's going to, anybody's going to do that. He didn't spend all that money trolling DeSantis for nothing. Yeah.

Yeah. All right. But Tom, so you think there is a possibility? No, I agree. I don't know who would do it. And if anyone had hopes that maybe he would be weakened or anything, I mean, after last night, I don't imagine anyone could watch that State of the Union and then...

feel like there's an opening there. So yes, someone may make the bad choice of doing it, but I would be surprised. I'm not 100% convinced that Biden will run for re-election, though. You know, he does, he usually does have some kind of caveat. You know, he says...

Right before the election, he was like, I intend to. I'm going to talk to my family about it over the holidays. You know, Dr. Biden said, you know, she sort of gave her blessing. We like saw that all happen out in public. So that seemed like an occurring side that he would do this. But he recently got asked about it and he said, you know, you tend to do, but he respects faith. You know, he's a man of faith and he's also a man that's had a lot of tough stuff happen to him and have him, you know, 15 and 16. He didn't run because of what was going on with his family. So, you know,

So I, you know, I wouldn't be I think he will run. That's most likely thing. But I wouldn't be shocked. I think that he's giving himself an out. I'll just say as a care on this point real quick, you know, managing Bernie's campaign. We I remember having an early conversation with him about Senator. If you were to win, would you plan to run again? And he candidly said to me, no, I think I'd be a one term president. I said, OK, well, Senator Sanders, you can never say that publicly.

We're never going to mention that because the second that you do, you're a lame duck president and obviously causes all kinds of issues for you. So we're going to hold that information. And then we're going to even wait and wait and wait and wait until you decide. And obviously, you may want to revisit that question at some point in the future, too. And if you're in Joe Biden, too, this is what you do. You would want to drag and play this out and give yourself both enough time. But even if you weren't going to make the decision, as Jennifer is suggesting, that might be a possibility. You still you wait because you don't want to lame duck yourself.

Right, right. Do you think that's a possibility that he's considering? I do. I mean, I agree with Jennifer that like, because he has to wrestle with six years, this is six more years, do I have the desire? I mean, he's riding high right now. You can imagine leaving on a very high note. And I think the question, you know, not to get in the weeds a little bit, but on the DNC calendar, right, we reformed the calendar process.

And I think the calendar process now is an insurance policy for many in the establishment side of the Democratic Party to say, listen, even if he doesn't, we feel like we've got a stacked deck where the person that we choose that we like will probably win. That being maybe Kamala Harris, it would be my odds on favorite of that, that she the stack, the deck would be in some sense stacked, in my view. I want to get to Senator Vice President Harris in a second. But Tom, do you think that's the out thing is there?

Yeah, I mean, it's certainly possible. Yeah, I do, too. I think he's running as well. But I think, you know, I agree. Like if if if in his heart, he he would he knew he wasn't running to Faz's point. Why would you say it now with these incredible, incredibly important and difficult battles that he cares very much about thinking about his legacy? Well, it makes it harder to accomplish that. But yeah, I agree. I think he's running. I think he should run.

Right. All right. So you just mentioned Vice President Harris. Is there an out for her on the ticket? I mean, obviously, there's another yet another same brutal article about her in The Times saying, quote, even some Democrats whom her advisers referred reporters to for supportive quotes confided privately they had lost hope in her. Is there a chance to replace her at all? Each of you. Why don't you start, Jen? No. No.

You cannot replace her. No, I mean, it's interesting when she ran for president herself, black voters, you know, were behind Biden as opposed to as opposed to her. But that is no longer the case. Yeah. You know, black women support her in a big way. Yeah.

There's a lot of pride about that. I feel like, you know, you know, Kara, you know, I mean, all the things. First black vice president, first woman vice president. She has, you know, I've written two books about this. She's gone through all of the gender and race stuff and her coverage. And I feel like she's really hit her stride and is doing well. It's hard being vice president.

What you're working on doesn't break through. I feel like it's starting to break through. We get abortion, voting rights, space, foreign policy. That's like what she's doing. But you cannot you cannot take her off this ticket. There's there's just no way. So, Foz, is there no chance for Biden to replace Harris on the ticket?

Fahs first and then Tom? No, not in the realm of reality. I agree with Jennifer. But, you know, I think for her own political purposes, she's a caretaker of a portfolio. And for her own strength and growth, I think...

We still have yet to know what are the things that really drive Vice President Harris? What are the things she cares most deeply about? You know, and I think if you were to I think that hurts her politically and her standing because she's seen, you know, caretaker portfolio and by identity, all the things that Jennifer mentioned and and less about her.

A substantive ideological political calling that calls me into the space that I is the reason I'm here. And that has been lacking for her for a while and hurt her, I think, during her presidential run that she's got to fill it out at some point. Yeah, she has a more prosecutorial tone. She is that is who she is genuinely since the beginning. Tom.

Yeah, I agree. There's no chance she's replaced. And the coverage is honestly pretty silly at this point. I agree. And that I don't think people weren't talking about this to my recollection to Vice President Biden. A lot of the standards are saying what she isn't doing is as if –

I just discovered it. Woman of color. Wow. When I was in covering tech, I was talking about boards of companies all being straight white men. And someone said to me, we have standards. And I said, why is there only standards when it comes to women and people of color? Because your board is running your company into a wall, as far as I can tell. Yeah.

To be fair, on this point, and just to reflect history, and Jennifer will remember it well, there was a very active conversation, how active, about Vice President Biden being dropped from the ticket. And there was some polling done. There was some conversation. David Axelrod discussed it a bit. You know, and they led it to a little, it had a moment. It did, yeah. And so there was a moment. But was that about him not doing enough? It seems like there was a story the other day about, that seemed to be judging as if she is president. Right.

which, you know, what has she done? Well, she's vice president and the position of vice president isn't one that lends itself to a ton of accomplishments. You know, unless she Spiro Agnews it, I don't see it happening. Anyway, she will be primaried if she ran, correct? I mean, that seems obvious, correct? Yes. Yeah. For sure. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, yeah. It'll be a complete free for all. If Biden does not run, it will be like 20, not as many as 20, but it'll be.

And I think it's part of the reason why he is feeling most strongly about wanting to do it again, because I think he does see his self as correctly the unifier of a Democratic Party that without him could be fractured pretty easily and become more of the food fight. The Republicans. What's happening over the Republicans. So a couple more things. The DNC recently approved, you mentioned Biden's plan to rearrange the primary calendar, basically to shift away from states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

FAS first? Will the DNC be able to actually implement the plan? Probably. They'll get the pieces that they want, for sure. South Carolina being first, which to me, you know, obviously I have a strong view against it. I thought it was generally hostile ground to progressives. I can go through the data. Tom, I know well that like generally the

Little known fact about South Carolina, I'm often told that we have to respect black voters. And I'm always responding that there's a lot of ways to respect black voters, not just by selecting South Carolina. But if you go back to it, from 2016 to 2020, Bernie got the same number of black voter support. In the multi-candidate field in 2020, we should have done better. We didn't. Why? Because the number of white voters doubled in the primary from 16 to 20. So it was white voters, and they constituted the majority, despite the fact that black voters are 60% of the Democratic primary registrants there.

more than 50% were white voters in the 2020 primary. When you looked at the white voters, their allegiances were generally Republican. They had a 42, 3% Democratic rating. So you had basically a lot of conservative, independent, centrist-y types come into a primary open in South Carolina and generally were hostile towards progressivism. And for that reason, I want

I want battlegrounds where the democratic values can be fought on on a fair terrain. What state would you pick? Oh, I'm good with Michigan. I'm good with Nevada. I'm good with... Even Merritt... The case for Blackfriars...

Georgia will be fine. I mean, like, obviously, it's moved in a very good progressive direction to reward them. You know, the flip of South Carolina is Maryland, right? First black, Democratic black governor. First, you know, like, same constitution of, you know, veterans population in Annapolis. You've got, you know, black voters, a higher percentage of that state than South Carolina. So, I mean, if you just flip the frame, like, that'd be the way to go. All right. So, Tom, you know voters as well as anyone, assuming they implement the changes. How will it reshape the party then, from your perspective? Yeah.

Well, I mean, short term, not at all, just given everything that we talked about. Longer term, it remains to be seen. And Fazz, I hear you on that. But also, like, you know, Republicans didn't have a primary in 2020. And so that's the reason why if you're a Republican in South Carolina, some of them were just going to vote in that. I think that's a point that's well taken. In 2008, in the Dem primary, 54% of the votes in South Carolina were black voters.

It's important. I like South Carolina, but Faust makes a good point. I mean, there are other states that also have significant black population. I think it is incredibly important. Michigan is certainly a more diverse state than- So how will that reshape the party? Well, I don't know that it reshapes the party. I think I'm struggling with that because I don't see that as having that big of an effect. I think it'll reshape the nominating process a little bit. Yeah.

But in the end, you know, Democratic candidates know that they need to appeal to voters of color, even when Iowa and New Hampshire were the first states. It's not like those voters were forgotten. I think it is important and good and right that we're putting states like South Carolina and Michigan first. But yeah, to your question, I don't know that it will reshape. Jen, does it reshape the nominee? You don't have to eat corn dogs. You get to eat barbecue. I'm kind of bummed about that part. I mean, I guess I'm going to cover the Republican front.

Mary. So I guess I will, I will still be able to do that. I mean, I feel like the process changed in 20, honestly, Iowa, New Hampshire did not matter at all. And like, faz can tell you the sad story of how Bernie Sanders did the conventional thing, right? Like, basically one kind of one, I mean, Pete, I guess one Iowa, but you all want New Hampshire, one Nevada, um,

And then, you know, you're not supposed to be able to come back and be the nominee after losing those three states. And Biden did it. Right. So it was already busted up and not the 2020 primary was sort of the first new primary. I think I love South Carolina so much. I think it's so weird to start the primary process there. And I can't imagine that that last. I think that was about the president's own affection for South Carolina. Yeah.

I think, I kind of think from what I've heard that it was supposed, it really was going to be Michigan first, which does change things. And, you know, some of that's tough because Michigan's an expensive state too. And, you know, the idea of Iowa and New Hampshire was that they're not expensive states. You can still do retail politics in Michigan. You know, 10 million people are there. And then I think Biden stepped in because he loves South Carolina so much. Maybe Clyburn weighed in, whatever. But

It's already changed. Yeah, South Carolina, probably probably in 28. I'm not sure we're going to start South Carolina. OK, so this is a couple more questions that I want to finally get to a lightning round at the end. During the negotiations over the doomed build back better bill, all we heard were the divisions within the party, then the party overperformed in the midterms.

And Kevin McCarthy had a hard time getting his job. Are the Democrats delighting in schadenfreude over the GOP mess and papering over their own issues? Let's start with you, Tom. You're shaking your head. I was shaking my head, yes, in terms of delighting in the schadenfreude. I mean, watching Kevin McCarthy last night during the State of the Union was one of my favorite things because usually the speaker is leading, right? They're telling their caucus when... And it seemed like he was kind of saying, like, are we standing? Are we sitting? Then he's shushing them, like...

you know, he's obviously in a very tenuous position and that's, I don't know. It's difficult. Does that, you know, to the second part of your question, does,

you know, Democrats papering over our issues. I don't see that. I'm interested in others' opinion on that, but I don't see that. In fact, I think it's done the opposite. It's brought Democrats, in terms of the response to the Republican extremism and dysfunction, it's brought Democrats closer together. Which is always a good topic. Like, put a picture of Marjorie Taylor Greene screaming. Oh, God, yeah. Foz?

And that way, Biden is a man for the moment because of his collegiality, his kindness, that his graciousness, I think, helps him politically when you have that kind of a fringe reaction. And so he will continue to benefit from it. But I do think, to your point, Cara, like there's a lot, not as much analysis around the fact that we obviously had a tribal election in 2022, you know, generally both sides turning out where they want.

you know, in high numbers and going with their side. And one of the strengths for Biden is that those kind of sent the voters right in the median. They're moving in a tilted, slightly Republican electorate towards him, which is great news.

Now, but like, what if it weren't Trump? And what if it weren't Trump? And the extreme wasn't on the ballot? Well, what would have happened in 2022 likely would have been a Republican Senate and a Republican House and just fighting and contemplating with that not to be bemoaning to be, you know, brush off or to say like, we did terribly. We did great, right? We're happy with the results.

but I want reflection on that, that if the future of the Democratic Party is going to remain strong. Yeah. And what's our appeal to them beyond the right is crazy pants. Like it's got to be something back in. And I think the economic, that gives you the thesis and why Biden was talking so clearly on economic terms last night and wanting to pick the fight on that battleground, because I think it is the highway back in. Because they're normal, just so you know, they're normal. Go ahead, Jennifer. So, yeah.

After the Democrats did so well in '22, I thought, "Well, you will never get this coalition together again." Right? Like, you can't count on that coalition of voters coming together in 2024, which sounds pessimistic for Democrats, but I am still optimistic for them because

Donald Trump has made Democrats great, right? The fear of him made us better in raising money. It made us better in organizing. It produced phenomenal candidates. Look at Gretchen Whitmer as an example, who I think, by the way, is like, I'm writing a piece about her for May Day to Be Fair. It's been a few days in Michigan last week with her. Really, that woman is on it. And she won in

18 by 10 points. She won in 22 by 11 points. She flipped the Michigan State Legislature because she had a plan to do that. And so what I find is that Democrats have found a way to win and keep our coalition together. We fight a lot. We fight a lot on details. We fight over policy. Build Back Better was hard to get together. You know, they eventually had to pare down and pass something smaller.

but got it done. And then moreover, when the moment matters, we're able to hang together. So I don't feel like, I feel like we are kind of dealing with our problems. I don't feel like, you know, Trump is a crutch. Okay. So I want to do a lightning round over culture war wedges, problems we use to try to divide Democrats for each one. Tell me how you think the party should approach the issue with FOS. You start and then Jennifer and then Tom very quickly.

criminal justice reform. Well, I mean, there's strong support for being for second chances for people. It actually crosses over to conservative sides. When you talk about second chances, rehabilitation, reconciliation, people, yeah. Second chance. Jennifer? Yeah, like support the cops and protect rights. We can do both things. I mean, you just have to, you can't accept the premise of the question. You just have to

you know, the premise of whatever the, the culture war issue is, you got to leap over it and say, you know, we can do both things. And I think that Democrats can get, be too scared of this stuff instead of just kind of calling BS on it and talk about how it actually affects people's lives, which is usually not at all. Like what's the principle, what's the higher value that you can go to and embrace that. Tom, what the president said last night where he had that moment where he said, uh,

Kids should be able to walk home and get home, and so should police officers. I thought he was able to do both sides well. Okay. Schools and all the hysteria over supposed grooming and quote unquote CRT. Foss? For me, this has always been, do you support public school teachers and public school systems? That's it. Make sure they pay them well and take care of the teachers. Trust them and respect them. Trust the teachers. Yeah. Protect our kids. Protect our kids. Don't alienate them.

Tom? Yeah, I agree with both, but investing in our schools, and that's not a way to do it. I mean, it's just a Trojan horse for them to ruin our public schools. Yeah, I say don't cover up books. Stop covering up books. It's the worst message we can send to kids. Trans rights. I mean, equal. That's all we're talking about. Treat and see people. Let people live their lives and treat them equally.

Yeah. And I think it's like, you know, don't alienate our children that need our support. Right. It's like and that you don't you're not zeroing in on any one population. You're making a larger you're making a larger point about a value that everybody can get on. Yeah. Just I mean, talking about fundamental human decency and human rights and when you see the suicide rates and suicide attempt rights, especially from young trans people.

people, it's heartbreaking. And I don't know how anyone could think otherwise. Yeah, I agree. My headline would be, leave them the fuck alone. Stop it. Amen. Immigration, much more difficult. Boz? I can't do that in a sentence. I mean, I think it's going to be tough because in part, I think we talked about immigration as an economic issue, which sometimes in the first frame, you see it either as border security, security something, something on the right.

But I do think that the thing to reconcile and fight with is the economic issue. We do need a labor force. We need some people coming in this country helping. And we need to respect and appreciate that, you know, when we are letting people, there could be a depression of wages. So people will rightly feel that, hey, what happened to my job? I'm trying to compete on the plane.

Why are they skipping a line? So just reconciling and fighting. You can solve this, but just having an economic conversation. So it's good for the economy. It's good for the economy. Yes, and own it and respect that people might have hard feelings if you're a low-wage worker who's like, I'm just trying to make it here. And I see you trying to introduce competition that makes my life harder. Just own that. We can solve it.

Yeah, there's so many jobs now. So it's not like it's stealing my job. Yeah, it's just like fix the broken system. My God, it's been almost 40 years past something to fix the system. And the Democrats have a long record of them trying to do that. And the Republicans have a long record of using this as a BS issue to rally the base and not do anything to solve the problem. And I think we're really at the just...

Solve the problem. Solve the problem, Tom. Yeah. Policy versus pandering, to Jennifer's point. Oh, nice. Republicans have been doing this just it's right. We hear about the. Except they'll have to look up the word pander, but go ahead. You know, hearing about the caravans, we only hear about this before the election and then suddenly everything's fine. But yeah, to Jennifer's point, I think people just want to see a clear policy on this.

OK, last question is on the GOP. I know we all have to go. I want to talk through five potential 2024 Republican candidates. If this is the person against Biden, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Tim Scott and Glenn Youngkin. First, rank them in order from most to least likely to win the nomination. This is for everyone. And then who is the toughest candidate for Biden to beat? Those are the two questions. Rank them. Jennifer. OK, rank them. I think Trump is still the most likely candidate.

And then I guess I think DeSantis would be second. Scott would be third. Haley would be fourth and Youngin would be fifth. I mean, Youngin's just like not, you know, he likes skated by in Virginia, but I don't think that he just tries to have it both ways. He tries to be a conventional establishment. He like acceptable Republican will also be MAG. I don't think you can pull that off. Who's the toughest?

I think, you know, Tim Scott might be a tough person to beat, but I don't think that anybody... I just, I have a lot of faith that Democrats proved it. In 20, they beat Trump. In 22, they beat Trumpism. And I'm just not sure that, you know, look, it's super early. I'm not sure any of them can beat Biden yet. Okay. Faz? I agree that Trump is...

odds on favor to be the nominee. If there were no Republican primary, I actually think the person isn't on your list. I think it would be Brian Kemp, governor of Georgia. I think his sale in a general election would be very difficult. So that would be the toughest one. Okay. Yeah. Okay. Go ahead, Tom. You know, Trump is like 60% likely. I'd say if I'm throwing a number at it and DeSantis 30%, and then the rest, you can just throw them in there because I don't think none of them are going to be the nominee. And without Trump, which one? Then I'll change it for you. DeSantis.

Yeah. Yeah. And I think Youngkin would be just the more moderate candidate or perceived moderate. He's tall. He's a tall guy. He's a tall man. He's a tall white dude. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah, he's tall. I hate to say it, but he's tall. A lot of presidents are tall. They're all tall. They're all tall. Look, it matters. I know, it matters. It matters. All right. It's been really great. I really appreciate it. We'll keep watching the tall white guys duke it out, of course. No, we won't. Anyway, goodbye and thank you so much. We really appreciate it. Thank you.

Donald Trump has made Democrats great. That's a line to take away from that interview. Yeah, he's still good to use to make people all scared. He's the boogeyman, right? He is. And he's constantly bringing new, exciting, terrible things to the table. Jennifer said...

Donald Trump has met Democrats great. And yet she also said he should not be talking about Trump. So it's like we cannot talk about the boogeyman. But thank God for the boogeyman. Yeah. Usually Democrats are always like, uh, like that. I thought they were very positive. That was very positive. What are they like, Kara?

Okay. I said I went to – they just argue and they're just always like things are, you know, hair on fire, Democrats in disarray. Yeah. I think the disagreement among Democrats is the strength of Democrats. Someone the other day said something similar about men and women is that women –

find ways to deal with their rage. And Democrats in their disarray learn how to be in disarray and Republicans are just not good at it. They're used to being in lockstep. And so the Greens and the gay, they're just shocked by it. And they don't, they're not good at it. They're not good at disagreement. But rage plays well. And so rage gets you airtime.

And that's where like the media wars are won. Well, that's different. That's the different rage. I don't think people care about it. I really don't. I don't understand how you simultaneously think that you need video because it excites people, but you don't need the things that are viral. You need it just like it's the modern age.

Yeah. I have been in rooms with Biden people where they're like, yeah, we don't think this social media is a thing. Like, I'm like, what? Like, even I don't like social media. Yeah, exactly. It is a thing. It is a thing. I've had them say that, top people. And I'm like, all right, you need to stop because you're wrong. I did think it was interesting when they were asking about Biden's big priorities. Tom and Jennifer maybe said infrastructure, climate change.

And, you know, these kind of big things that take a long time. Biden administration has really laid the tracks for a lot of reform. I think the insulin – my first story for The New York Times was about the price of insulin. I mean, if we can bring it down, that would be great. It's insane. And yet you need some quick wins. You know, I liked –

I liked Fez's point about paid sick leave. Yeah. I think there's a lot of gimmies, but I think the climate is a big deal with young people. It totally is. I think it is. And I think it's a winner. Like, we're going to clean up our environment for you. They can do that. They can sell those things. I had an idea while we were on with them about what the vice president should be focused or what would be a good thing to add to the vice president's portfolio. What?

Criminal justice. No, she can't keep being the prosecutor. But it totally does play to her strengths. It's a really big national wedge issue. I know, but no. I think a Democrat that's tough on crime. As much as everybody likes the prosecutor, nobody likes the prosecutor. Vice President Harris is incredibly appealing in person, one-on-one, incredibly. So why do you think she's not appealing broadly? Because she's a woman of color and she's prosecutorial by nature because it's her thing. And they like

I hate to say it, a person you can have a beer with. Remember when Obama in an appalling statement said about Hillary Clinton, she's likable enough? It works and works and works. But you say that she is personable in person. She is. So why can't you have a beer with her? You know, Nancy Pelosi used to have that problem and her inside was shown outside finally and everybody likes her. Yeah. Right? And I think her... I think Harris' inside...

game needs to be outside a lot more. And, you know, in the case of Pelosi, I think when she had Trump as her antagonist, that's where it came out. Mama, mama's going to take, grandma's going to take care of it. Like grandma with the sunglasses and the cool coat and the fantastic shoes is going to not let this fucker get in my way. Nancy Pelosi, by the way, is the star of the ball. I feel like she really, she wore it best. Her shocking pink jacket. I love it. Love it.

at all. And Paul Pelosi, all thoughts to Paul Pelosi. He looked great. I was so glad to see him there. That I was glad to see. All right. Do you want to read us out, Karen? Yes. Today's show was produced by Naeem Araza, Blake Nishik, Christian Castro-Rossell, and Rafaela Seaworth. Special thanks to Haley Milliken. David Wilson engineered this episode. Our theme music is by Trackademics. If you're already following the show, you get a standing ovation. If not, a hearty boo and a heckle for you. And that coat. You have to wear that coat.

Go wherever you listen to podcasts, search for On with Kara Swisher and hit follow. Thanks for listening to On with Kara Swisher from New York Magazine, the Vox Media Podcast Network, and us. We'll be back on Monday with more. There was a way to style that coat well. No, there's not. Yes, there was. There's not. Dedham jeans, a white t-shirt. No, no. All right, we need to stop. Some white sneakers. And we're out.