Veep Game Theories, Trump Plays Catch-up, and Harris Reshuffles the Map 39:06

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Hi, I'm Tara Palmieri. I'm Puck's senior political correspondent, and this is Somebody's Gotta Win.

I don't think anyone can disagree with the fact that Kamala Harris is in a much better place today than Joe Biden ever was. She has essentially overnight made up the gains that were lost after his disastrous debate and her favorability numbers jumped by 10 points almost overnight. It feels miraculous.

And the enthusiasm gap has closed. A higher percentage of Democrats want to vote for Kamala than a higher percent of Republicans want to vote for Trump. But they are still within the margin of error. And this is going to be a very tight race fought in a number of battleground states. And to break it all down, I brought

in NBC's senior political correspondent, John Allen, who has a new book coming out. He is the New York Times bestselling author of Shattered and Lucky, two election books, and he won't even tell us the title, or maybe he'll break it on the show. What's the title of the new book, John? It is as yet untitled. You gotta see what happens with the election. You could always call it untitled. Okay, well, that's exciting. How fast did you turn this one around? Oh,

The publication date is not yet set, but I would just say Shattered came out in April of 2017 and Lucky came out in March of 2021.

So, you know, look forward early next year. Is it just like emptying out your notebook? Is that what you're doing right now? No, we're conducting interviews right now. Cool, cool. We're getting new information for people. Okay. And we also have Matthew Bartlett on the line. He is our favorite Republican strategist, hails from the great state of New Hampshire, helped us figure out what was going on during the primaries. He's also a former Trump appointee in the State Department. And I think

can speak to the feelings of soft Republicans, because I don't know if I'm speaking for you, but do you plan to vote for Trump in 2024? Oh, what a great question. Listen, I have not written any books. I have a head for radio, a voice for print. But when it comes

this election. Mark me down as undecided right now. Oh, you're like Governor Sununu. He eventually came out and said, I'm voting for Trump. Okay. Undecided. I might be one of the few double haters that remain out there. Oh yeah. I thought they cleared that up. I thought with Kamala on the ballot, the double haters are gone. Is that fair to say? Can I be a triple hater? Yeah.

I hate Biden, Harris and Trump. Okay, sure. You want to throw anyone else in there? Want to be a quadruple hater? How do you feel about RFK? Add him to the pack. You can throw in JD Vance too. Um, I'm not sure who the Dems are going to pick as a VP, but, uh,

Odds are I probably won't be happy at that either. Matt hates everyone, but some of us like Matt. Yeah, Matt's very lovable. I think you have my mother and that's it. Okay, so John, I'm going to throw the first question at you. Should we expect Kamala to keep riding high? The number is just going up further and further. Will she get another bump when she picks her VP? Or do you think this is all just like a honeymoon and it will...

all even out and she will be exactly where Biden left her. Well, maybe not exactly where Biden left her because he was in the tanks. I'm talking about pre-debate. Yeah. Contrary to public opinion, I have no ability to predict the future. That said, you know, I think something you said in your opening was really poignant, which is this race has been upended.

Joe Biden was on track to lose. He was behind Trump before the debate. He was only falling. There was no there was nothing on the horizon that looked like it might change his trajectory. And now the Democrats have a candidate who is energetic and exciting and has unified their party. I think, you know, in talking to Democrats, a lot of them weren't sure that they could vote for Joe Biden in good conscience, having seen him on that debate stage.

And there is not any sort of loyal Democrat, normal Democrat, run-of-the-mill Democrat who's going to have any problem voting for Kamala Harris. Now, the question is going to be,

What is she able to do in terms of those swing voters in swing states? And I think that remains to be seen. And I think part of that will hinge on her ability to sustain this momentum. Right now, it's been a party coming together behind her. It has been a fresher approach to campaigning. You know, the sort of Joe Biden civility is out the window. They are now calling Donald Trump and Jamie Vance weird. That feels coordinated, by the way, the whole weird thing.

I've heard the word weird so many times. I'm like, oh my God, if I hear the word weird one more time on a Sunday show. This was George W. Bush describing the Trump inauguration. I think that reports are he turned and said, that was pretty weird. Right, but it wasn't like then everyone on MSNBC said it after...

Yeah, so no, I mean, there is this huge echo chamber going on and she's got like her messaging right now has been strong and she's been able to win news cycles, which Biden wasn't really able to do against Trump until his campaign was, until Biden's campaign was falling apart, at which point he didn't want to be winning news cycles. So I think, you know, the thing to keep an eye on is, is she able to sustain this when she does interviews?

when there is adversity within the campaign. And presumably over the next 100 days, there will be some of that. I know the Trump campaign is looking really hard at how she does with older voters, because that was a constituency that Biden was holding on to, and rural voters. Matthew, what do you think? How do you think she's going to play with these voters? It's unclear, right? I mean, she...

Has united the party, I guess, because and huge enthusiasm because she is not Joe Biden and she is not Donald Trump. So right now there's a big wave of relief on Democrats and certainly a new set of eyes from people that may not have known her outside the marginal role that any vice president plays.

plays. But I think there's going to be a notion to either define her from the Republican side, or does this honeymoon continue on for the next 100 days? Does she need to address reporters? Does she need to face a hostile press corps? Republicans are certainly questioning why this is happening. There's a lot of questions about what did she know about President Biden's conditions? This is someone who is to the left

of Joe Biden on arguably every issue out there, yet the coverage seems to be fanning. And again, nothing with

With $200 million, there's not a lot that says she has to do anything differently. It's interesting. I was just on Megyn Kelly's show and she was like, it's kind of like when you start dating someone new and it's really amazing. And then three or four months in, you're like, wait, who is this person? But luckily for Kamala Harris, that's all she's got. She just has to make the country stay in love with her for basically three to four months. Is that really possible?

I don't know. I feel like the Trump campaign is going to be out to define her right away. I mean, what kind of attacks should she be ready for? I've already seen Dave McCormick. He's the Pennsylvania Senate candidate. He clipped every single moment from her 2019 campaign when she ran to the left of Bernie Sanders, basically, or really along with Bernie Sanders, afraid of her background as a

you know, tough as nails prosecutor. People had called her Coppola and she was trying to like run against that when Black Lives Matter was a moment. But I don't know, can she really sustain this for 100 days? What do you think, John? What kind of attacks do you assume will be coming at her? Yeah, I mean, it turns out that Bernie Sanders bros

calling her, saying Kamala is a cop back in 2019 may turn out to be a blessing for her. She's unable to shake that. I mean, I certainly think there are some libertarians on the right that think that's a slam, but I think that for swing voters, being a prosecutor and prosecuting crime is a good thing. Can she stay in 100 days?

I don't know. I am more, let's put it this way, I'm less skeptical than that is about whether or not she'll be tested by the media and by voters out on the campaign trail. I think it's very hard, even in 100 days, to go 100 days without

without having some unplanned interactions. I just wonder if it's better to have a long campaign or a short campaign when you're a new candidate. I think it could work to her advantage. Yeah, I think short is better for her. Definitely better. I think, you know, you were talking about Kamala Harris for 15 months on the campaign trail. It might not work. I mean, we saw that in the primary in 2019, right? She didn't even get to a caucus or a primary in that campaign. So short is better.

What kind of attacks do you think she'll have to deal with, Matthew? Again, her record, whether it's as an attorney general, where she seemed to lock up the wrong people and let loose, you know, the wrong people as well, or her time as vice president, casting deciding vote after deciding vote on massive packages that increased inflation. You know, what is she in charge of? The border? Borders are? And that was an abject failure. But

Like you said, you know, climbing the mountain to be president is very steep. Ask Ron DeSantis, ask Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, ask anyone. Very, very difficult. Only 46 people in our country have done it properly. She is now starting yards away from the summit. So that is a significant advantage coupled with the notion of she is not one of the two old crowns.

cranky men who were previously running all but two weeks ago. So there's excitement, there's energy, but there's also political reality. We'll see if that gravity hits and prevents her from reaching the top. Okay, so so far her messaging has been

He's a criminal. I'm the prosecutor, right? Really, what she's doing is trying to make it a referendum on Trump, which is the best position for her, right? And for Trump and his team, the last thing they want is for Kamala Harris to come off like she's a generic Democrat. That's their worst nightmare, I would say. I don't know. Have you seen any effective messaging out of Trump world yet? No.

I mean, I think they're throwing a lot of things at the wall right now to see what sticks best. And that doesn't mean that they won't find something that sticks best, but they have a spinal tap problem. If your amp is already at 11, which is where it was on Biden, it's hard to figure out how to turn it up. So what you hear Trump saying about Kamala Harris is she's a radical leftist.

which is what he was saying about Joe Biden. And the truth is, Kamala Harris, to Matt's point, is to the left of Joe Biden and ran hard to his left in the primary in 2019. But he was using that terminology for Joe Biden. He was saying Biden's a radical leftist. Where does he go from there? And I think they're trying to figure that out now.

Ultimately, I expect them to get back to the issues that they care most about and have been harping on for the most in this campaign, which is immigration, where they have that contrast with her as sort of being put in charge of immigration policy at the White House and the economy. And the change out of Democratic candidates and the energy boost that Democrats got there does not change the reality of the economy or the perceptions of the economy.

And I, you know, I think if she's not able to define what she's going to do going forward that is different from Biden on the economy and immigration, you know, she will she will have a tough race on her hands. I mean, listen, I am shocked. I might be one of the few people, you know, in politics, speed kills, right? Speed is can be

can be deadly. And when it was announced, uh, that Joe Biden was not running, I am shocked that Donald Trump did not go right to, to cut a video that, that hour saying for a party that loves democracy, you know, historically in our country, nominees are picked by the public, not by party insiders. I'm surprised they did not have a plan to define her immediately. Um,

This is, you know, a campaign that was credited for being so disciplined and smart professionals, even while the candidate himself was running a bit wild. Yet they kind of let her unabated. And it's still, to John's point, you know, not clear how they want to approach her, much less, you know, sadly, what did we see early on by some Republicans, either racist or sexist, you know, Republicans?

coming right up to the edge, maybe even crossing over messaging. Yeah, they called her a DEI candidate. And then the Speaker of the House had to be like, please stop with that. This is not the way we want to go about it. We have to be more surgical in how we deal with this because you're going to make her more sympathetic to women. If you go after her personal life, after her race. And Tara, just one thing I'd like to add in there to Matt's point. I mean, we saw this with the Trump campaign in 2020, this real inability to pivot. Yeah.

when COVID hit and to sort of adjust to the reality on the ground and to, and for Trump himself to adjust to what was going on. And, you know, we're seeing that now with the difficulty adjusting to a reality with a new candidate that they had long predicted, whether or not they believed it was going to happen as long publicly predicted was going to happen and yet caught flat footed anyway. And so I,

I don't know exactly what that speaks to. It probably speaks more to Trump himself than the campaign around him. But slow out of the gate, as Matt said. Yeah, it almost seemed like in the rallies from this weekend that Trump wanted just to use the word Biden instead of Harris. A lot of the words that were coming out of his mouth. He had already been prepping for that. I'm sure he's pissed that he's not running against Biden. I mean, we know that.

But MAGA Inc. is the super PAC that supports Trump. And it's the biggest one, the blessed one, you would say. And they had an ad that came out immediately basically blaming her for the cover up of Joe Biden's mental faculties or whatever. I don't.

I don't think that one really landed. I mean, I have not even seen the ad, right? It's a legitimate question. And the notion of like, why are Republicans not driving this, you know, is beyond me. They seem to still be on Biden. You know, I had so many messages when Biden stepped down from friends that weren't about, you know, Kamala Harris. How do we beat Kamala Harris? But rather, you know, Joe Biden's in hospice.

conspiracy theories about the FBI, about the assassination. It seems as if the Republican Party, the Trump campaign, completely lost footing there. And there are some legitimate questions to be asked of, you know, Vice President Harris, you were with Joe Biden all the time. You know, how does this, you know, a switcheroo here should ask

some questions. A press should be asking her Republican should be much less, you know, how do you say I'm not for, for, for running for reelection, but I'm fine for the next seven months as president. But to Matt's point, a lot of that is on, uh,

on the Trump campaign and the Republican Party to actually get in there and push the issue and say, here's what you got to be asking about. I mean, the parties don't direct the media, but they certainly influence what's getting covered by raising questions that the other side is not adequately answering. And so that's on Trump. And look, we've had this crazy period where, you know, again, Donald Trump cannot win a news cycle.

For weeks and weeks, here's a guy, Donald Trump, who for years has won every news cycle, has driven where the media is going. And we saw Biden driving it negatively for Biden. We saw Harris driving it positively for her. I wouldn't say winning, but owning. Maybe not even his messaging. Do you think he really wants a news cycle where he's in court? Really? Driving the news cycle, though. Trump has been...

Almost almost obscured by the Biden problems, the Harris candidacy and the Harris campaign and the rest of the Democrats going after J.D. Vance.

You know, the first rule of being a vice presidential candidate is to do no harm. And J.D. Vance is failing on that test right now. That doesn't mean he will across the next 100 days. But for the first week, it's been pretty bad. Yeah. Let's talk about J.D. for a minute. So obviously, it was a very rough outing. A lot of old footage came out. I was told from the campaign that they were expecting that they really think he can burrow into the Rust Belt. You know, they can he can really burrow into the male voters that they are willing to just focus in on at the expense of suburban women who are

actually deliver them in the White House in 2016. So it's a risky scenario. But, you know, at the end of the day, like you have to remember that Trump had a phone call with Elon Musk before he picked J.D. Vance. Trump was being pushed to pick J.D. Vance because he could bring in so much money from Silicon Valley. He could bring in VC money, venture capital, hedge fund money, new money, not the traditional country club Republican money. And Trump is really enamored

by that world. And I think that's being lost in the conversation. So as like, tringy as J.D. Vance is, I do think it's kind of being lost a little bit what he was brought on to do. Well, as a Republican, let me say, you know, not my first pick. How did I know it was going to be J.D. Vance? I really hoped it wasn't going to be J.D. Vance. And then we saw this guy who, you know, has an amazing story, an amazing record.

It's been said he speaks MAGA language with the Ivy League accent. And could he explain to people who find Trump to be a little weird, for lack of a better term, and appeal to them in plain spoken language? That has not been the case. Wow. No, he only does the philosophical argument. That's what he can do. He can't speak like a regular person. Before J.D. Vance, the argument Democrats were making was that Republicans

Republicans wanted to punish women for having abortions. Now the argument Democrats are making is, in addition to that, what Republicans, or at least J.D. Vance wants to do, is punish women for not getting pregnant. It's so Handmaid's Tale. You've taken it to the next level now. You couldn't make it up. He's literally saying it should be taxed more

if you don't have children, which by the way, as a senator, he should know our tax system already does that, right? You get tax breaks if you're a parent. But it's so strange to hear that come out of a politician's mouth, you know, this sort of slam on people who don't have children. And then, you know, there was a sort of a makeup session he had with Trey Gowdy where he said, you know, like, you know, basically he was saying, you know, of course I'm not against

uh, people who don't have children. But if you're in that position, you're, you're,

losing the argument if i mean if that's what you're talking about you know right on the box they just seem to be like betting the whole thing on these low propensity low information voters listen i can't think of a a vice presidential pick that was consequential in one state much less an election so maybe we are making too much about this but again this is a guy that was talking with ben shapiro tucker carlson steve bannon and coming out of a maga cave and america goes what

the fuck are you talking about? And the cleanup about human civilization. Are these defining issues? Is this what we want to talk about? I'm shocked he's this bad and I'm shocked that the Trump campaign does not have people around him. You know, you're the vice president. You get a whole new set of team, you know, people that are professionals and to be continuously, you know, playing cleanup, caught flat footed doesn't bode well. You know, I don't remember Tim Kaine much. You know, that's probably a good thing. Yeah.

But he certainly didn't insult an entire gender. Because this has penetrated like pop culture. You've got Jennifer Aniston weighing in on a Chelsea Handler. There is no American woman who has not heard this comment at this point. You literally have to be living under a rock. Yeah, there's like Taylor Swift pictures with her cat. Oh, I'm not getting a cat now, okay? I have a childless dog lady though, okay? Okay.

I'm surprised Kamala Harris has yet to acquire a cat and name it J.D. I love that. Like, I mean, it's just so open and so obvious that... They should do that meme. Good idea, Jonathan. I'm not here to advise political candidates, but I do think that there were two options for J.D. Vance. One was...

own it and say why you took this position. And the other one was to just say you said something dumb. And the easier thing was, I just said something dumb. And I'm sorry I said it three years ago. I don't believe it. I didn't really believe it then. I certainly don't believe it now. But there is this sort of this macho era that we're in in politics where nobody ever just says, I did the wrong thing. Well, Trump started that. Trump never say sorry.

Never does. And now he's going to now he's going to wear it for, you know, for as long as as well, as long as the rest of this campaign and maybe into his political future if he doesn't win the vice presidency. And truly, no one's able to do those political things that Trump does, just not apologizing and then surviving. Everyone who tries to do that fails. I haven't seen a single person survive.

and do what Trump does. I mean, imagine being a candidate who's running with Donald Trump and you've done something that's more of a political error than him. Like if you were vetting J.D. Vance, you would look and say, well, the thing that he said isn't as bad as some of the stuff that Donald Trump has done and said as far as political liability. And yet you're

It is playing much bigger than any of the things right now that Donald Trump has said and done. I mean, as if Trump isn't, you know, a rare bird in terms of his style. Republicans were salivating for a long time. You know, Joe Biden was too old, but Kamala Harris is just a horrible communicator. She does not resonate. She does not sound, you know, come across well and articulate. Now we have J.D. Vance.

He might take the cake here. I'm not sure Democrats even or even Republicans that are happy with him. Yeah, my sources say he's going to get a tune up. He's going to get some lessons in how to, you know, really rile up a crowd, you know, do the thing.

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Is there a new map for Kamala Harris? It was pretty much seen that the Sunbelt was in Republican territory, even though Trump lost 20 percent of male voters in Georgia in 2020. This is like this Brian Kemp brand of Republicans that just don't like Donald Trump. And Trump was up seven points in Arizona. But is there a possibility that if Kamala Harris brought someone in like Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, could that

you know, change the map for Democrats and then Trump has to be on the offense in the Rust Belt, on the blue wall? Is this a real thing or do you think it's ambitious? I think that there's no modern history of a candidate, vice presidential candidate, bringing their state along.

And like the last one I could think of is Lyndon Johnson in Texas. And it's not entirely clear to me that that state election was on the up and up in 1960. You know, Johnson controlled a lot of ballot boxes. So I don't mean to start a 1960 conspiracy theory all over again. But but the point is that the vice presidential candidate does not usually win.

mean a whole lot within a state. I think there's a lot of focus on that as a possibility. People think that it can happen. Maybe this is the year that it does happen. I think the answer to the question of whether there's a new map is not yet. You know, we'll have to see what the Harris trajectory is. If she starts out running where Biden was, you know, pre-debate by, you

you know, three or four or five points, then yes, you are talking about Georgia and Arizona and maybe North Carolina being on the map. On the other hand, if she's back where Biden was a week from now, back where he was before the debate, then the Democrats basically have to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Omaha, Nebraska, that one district in Nebraska that

that they can sometimes win and get an electoral vote from. So I think we just have to wait to see. So not yet. All new race going back to the old maps. I think, you know, would you agree, John? This takes New Hampshire, Virginia off the table. States that seem to be slipping away from Biden might now be back in the D category here. And again, it stops the bleeding of

and it kind of shrinks the map back to the old map. Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, that's, I think right now we are looking at a race that looks a lot like it did, you know, two or three months ago, rather than two or three weeks ago. Biden was to your point, Matt, Biden was slipping in places like Virginia and Minnesota and the Republicans were putting more in play. And now today there's less in play for the Republicans and,

But I don't I haven't yet seen the Democratic map expand. That doesn't mean that it won't just haven't seen it yet. Let's talk about Josh Shapiro while we talk about the map. He is a very popular governor of Pennsylvania. He was elected two years ago. He beat a pretty kooky Republican by 15 points. But that's a big electoral win. Trump lost Pennsylvania by half a percentage point in 2020 and he won twice.

in 2016 by a very slim margin as well. Could Shapiro help deliver 40,000 votes or whatever it is that Kamala Harris would need? Listen, I don't see how he couldn't. I don't see how he hurts in Pennsylvania. An incredibly popular governor known as an amazing communicator. Could he bring Pennsylvania along? Like you said,

Look at the numbers. Of course he could. There's an unfortunate conversation as to his heritage, right? Being a person of the Jewish faith, does that complicate things for the Democratic Party in Minnesota? I do not pretend to know that. In Michigan, too. In Michigan as well. Yeah, where there's 100,000 Muslims. I would hope that that's not the case. I would hope that we do not, you know, we play on the issues. But, you know, it's an unfortunate reality that needs to be looked at as well. But.

Pennsylvania is a big one. Yeah. And I've heard that Kamala Harris is a little soft with Jewish voters right now. So that could also help her. Biden did win Pennsylvania.

And so it would I think if they chose Shapiro for the reason of trying to shore up Pennsylvania, it would be a suggestion of like how tight they really think this race is going to be. That their concern is guarding Pennsylvania rather than expanding to, say, Arizona or North Carolina or some of the states that some of these other candidates are from or potential vice presidential hopefuls. You know,

You know, with Shapiro, it's not just his religion. It is that he has been very critical of protesters, of pro-Palestinian protesters on campuses and stuff. If he gets picked, you will see an instantaneous backlash reaction within the Democratic Party to him. That does not mean that he is the wrong pick for her. It doesn't mean that she wouldn't gain more than lose from picking him.

It just means that at this moment of like maximum unity for the Democrats, I think you would see, you know, a very strong backlash from the small percentage of the Democratic Party that is fiercely pro-Palestinian.

And Tim Walls, his name is coming up. Governor, you're shaking your head. What are you thinking, Matt? Yeah, I mean, listen, he's been throwing the red meat out there to the progressives and they're loving it. They're eating it up. A very sharp guy in a critical state, has some experience in the House. So yeah, and then, you know, Bashir has been out of Kentucky. Again, another, maybe a blue collar, damn, a very popular Democrat in a very red state.

Today I watched him mispronounce Kamala Harris's name. Not great. So a lot of this will be, you know, personal as well as, you know, policy as well as generalization.

geographic location, uh, there's going to be a personality. It seems if, um, governor Waltz in, in, in Minnesota really has some flair to him, uh, that is appreciated on the liberal left. Um, but who's to say, you know, what, what the good fit is that for, for Kamala, maybe Kamala Harris doesn't care whether people call her Kamala or Kamala, as long as they call her president in January. Uh,

Maybe that's your play. I also caught that same interview Matt did where he called her Kamala. And I thought to myself, that's a terrible move, but maybe she wants to reach out to the folks that want to call her Kamala. I don't know. Um,

I suspect that it's not a good move on his part. Yeah. If you're doing a job interview, you should get the boss's name, right? Yeah, that's right. That's right. But as long as they don't call it late to breakfast or, or, you know, do call her president January, I'm sure she'll be happy. I think, you know, with regard to Tim walls in Minnesota, um, I think what he represents is a brand of progressivism that has been popular in some of the Midwest states. Uh, you see it with, um, you know, with Amy Klobuchar, you see what Tammy Baldwin with these, you know, very liberal senators in Washington, uh,

who are able to win statewide in competitive states. Obviously, Wisconsin's a lot more competitive, Baldwin in a much more competitive state than Klobuchar is or Walz is, but they have been successful in reaching audiences that have not traditionally been with the Democratic Party in recent years. And so I think that's why one of the reasons you're seeing Walz get so much attention. Okay. Any sleeper candidates that we should know about?

I get the feeling that big Gretch, as in Gretchen Whitmer, is not on the table because America is not ready for two ladies. You're a loss, America, okay? Yeah, she pulled her name out, but probably reading the writing on the wall. She was just in New Hampshire, had an amazing reception. We're talking about hundreds of people coming out, I think bigger than any GOP candidate absent Trump this cycle. So who knows what the future holds for her? It's gotta be weird to be like,

I'm a Democrat, but I really hope Kamala doesn't win. Well, yeah, because then she's up in 2028, right? Correct. She wouldn't run against Kamala if she's elected. Well, if Kamala loses, obviously. This is why, you know, back in 2004, Hillary Clinton was rooting hard for George W. Bush. Politics makes it strange. Somewhat unjust, right? So that she could run in 08. Yeah. What about you, John? What's your reporting saying? Is there anyone that we maybe think, like, is she really considering Mayor Pete or is that just a...

Look, I think everybody gets a look, you know, if they're part of the sort of constellation of next generation Democrats. And we're seeing some of that. The upsides to Mayor Pete are that he communicates extremely effectively. I'm not sure there's anything that breaks down complicated things as simply as he does. And he's already been vetted. All those cabinet secretaries have done FBI background checks. I mean, so there's

And he's a military vet. I mean, there are reasons to look at him. I would be surprised if she ends up going with Buttigieg for a variety of reasons, including the fact that he'll get pinned with every airport delay for the last four years and the train derailment in East Palestine. Like being transportation secretary is a terrible job to have before you run for president or vice president. It's really bad. It's almost as bad as being vice president before you run for president. They hand you a shit sandwich like dealing with the border.

You want to be ag secretary and hand out checks to farmers all over the country, particularly in early voting states. She should have asked for that. Now he's just the face of, you know, your flight delay, a train derailment. Yeah, it's no good. If you're in charge of the National Transportation Safety Board.

That never goes well. Oh, well, well, Mayor Pete, maybe in 2032, question mark. By then, everyone will have forgotten. All right, guys. Trump said this weekend, Christians, ye all don't need to vote in four years. I'll fix it all for you. He didn't say the word ye, but it was very weird. Also, when Trump talks to Christians, it's always a little weird because you can kind of tell he's like, I love the Christians.

the Christians. I don't really know how you guys pray, but I'm going to do it with you. And like, should I close my eyes and like move my hands around? Or it's just so obviously awkward. He's a man that doesn't go to church very frequently. I am not judging for that reason. I just think it's hilarious seeing that happen. It's

And it's very weird. But what should we make of that? Some people are like, when he says you don't have to vote in four years, that means I will be a dictator for life. I don't really think he meant that. But I'm also like, what the hell is he trying to do in four years that will make them never want to vote again? Does that mean he's going to sign a national abortion ban? Does that mean like, you know, I don't know. It'll be more than a tax on not having children. I don't know. You guys tell me what you think when you heard that. Or is it just Trump saying crazy shit? He has a major incentive to get people to vote this time.

and to promise them whatever it is they think they want to get them to do that. And then he doesn't, he doesn't have to worry about it anymore. And I, I think that's probably what's going on more than anything else. He doesn't want to go to jail after this. Let's be honest.

For all the candidates who feel like they're pandering when they show up at churches, and we've seen that act a lot over the years, man, it does feel like Trump is pandering when he does that. It's weird. It's like he's never met anyone who went to church before. Yeah, I mean, listen, it's Trump. I don't think he let slip that he was going to be canceling the elections and be a dictator. I think, you know, Trump in some ways, again, put politics in the vernacular, right? Yeah.

Everybody thinks, you know, politicians are shameless. Well, if you're going to be one, you might as well be shameless. Somebody gets out there and says, listen, do it one more time. One more vote. I'm going to fix everything under the sun. I think some of it is a bit tongue in cheek and some of it's probably just his crazy ego. You know, when you let the in speak out loud or something. OK, John, you want to give us some of your latest reporting? Last words. Oh, I took.

my first weekend off in about a month this past weekend. I don't have a ton of super fresh reporting, mostly been about which candidates are up and down. You know, I mean, you know, in terms of the vice presidential pick for Harris, obviously some of the ones we talked about, Mark Kelly in Arizona, Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, Tim Walz in Minnesota, all getting big looks right now. But, you know, one person will make that decision. She'll make it by August 7th and then we'll find out

What does your gut say? My gut is that the first name out of the box is usually the one they end up with. And in this case, it was Mark Kelly. Typically, candidates start with a favorite unless there's a reason to get rid of them. They stick with that favorite. So, but I, you know, look, I wouldn't even put that at 50% odds. That would just be my, you know, my most likely of the Albany, you know, the sort of plurality candidates, right? Like if I were making odds, it wouldn't be better than, you know,

better than 50% odds. We never mentioned Rick Cooper. I'm

Carolina. Yeah, he's definitely in that mix too. And I probably should have mentioned him. He has a long relationship with Harris. So, you know, he's among the top four or five. And he's a little older than she is. Just a touch. A little salt and pepper doesn't hurt for a candidate who's trying to appear to be the next generation. I mean, interestingly, Harris is 59 years old, which is older than the average president by a few years, but certainly much younger than the current one and the most recent former one. She looks great for 59. Yeah.

Girlfriend. No comment. Yeah, you don't get to speak here. You're muted. Matthew, you can speak for soft Republicans, right? Independence, double haters, quadruple haters, all the unknowns. What do you think? Can Kamala win them over? Oh, I mean, listen, this race has been the most

politics I have ever seen. The biggest events in this race have been unprecedented, unforeseen, and have been absent ideology or even ideas. It

It is so difficult to see how the ball bounces from here. But as you say, you know, somebody's got to win. Anything is possible. And I'll just say, you know, what a pleasure it is to be on with both of you because I follow your reporting. I follow you both on X or Twitter and I'm smarter because of it. I'm always trying to look around the corners, but it seems like you guys got binoculars on the horizon there. So, yeah, we got 100 days. Anything is possible in America. You're right.

though that it hasn't really been a campaign focused on policy really we've had debates we've had um assassination attempts dropouts um you know what comes next all

All right, guys, thanks for coming on the show. That was another episode of Somebody's Gotta Win. I'm your host, Tara Palmieri. I want to thank my producers, Christopher Sutton and Connor Nevins. If you like the show, please rate it, subscribe, share it with your friends. If you like my reporting, go to puck.news slash Tara dash Palmieri. And you could sign up for my newsletter, the best and the brightest. Use my discount code Tara20 for 20% off a subscription at Puck. See you tomorrow.