Note from Elie: The Supreme Court’s Make-Or-Break Decision on Trump 08:47

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Download the Viator app now to use code VIATOR10 for 10% off your first booking in the app. Regret less. Do more with Viator. Hey, everyone. Ellie here wishing you a very happy Friday morning, a very happy summer Friday morning. Hope you got good weekend plans ahead. Well, it's been a chaotic eventful, however you want to describe it, few weeks. But as the dust settles a bit temporarily, it's been a little bit of a

I think we're getting a little bit of clarity as to what actually lies ahead for the first time in nearly a year with respect to all the Trump cases. So what we do this week is we're going to break them down. We're going to do a little bit of an around the horn, see where all the cases stand. And I think you'll see that suddenly there's much less mystery, although there's one very big moment that looms shortly ahead on the summer calendar. As always, send me any thoughts, questions or comments to letters at cafe.com.

For most of the past year, we've wondered just how much damage will the four indictments of Donald Trump inflict on him before the 2024 election? After months of hypothetical wargaming, we suddenly have newfound clarity. The pre-election fates of three of the Trump cases are now all but settled, and resolution of the fourth will soon give us the single most crucial pivot point of the Trump legal saga and the 2024 election cycle. Let's take inventory.

Up first, the Manhattan DA's hush money 2016 election case. The jury has spoken and the former president is now a convicted felon. Our next order of business will Judge Juan Merchan sentence Trump to prison. Now, sentencing is set for July 11th, just days before the Republican National Convention. And this one feels like a toss up to me.

On the one hand, the healthy majority of New York defendants convicted of the same crime, falsification of business records in the first degree, receive non-prison sentences. On the other hand, Trump's case presents obvious aggravating factors. His gag order violations, 10 of them at last count. His public contempt for the judge and the proceedings as a whole. His lack of remorse or acceptance of responsibility.

Either way, watch for Trump to make a political meal out of it. If the judge does impose a prison sentence, Trump will remind his supporters that they are going to put him in a cage literally now. And if the judge sentences Trump merely to probation or fines or other non-incarceratory terms, then he'll gloat and claim it was all a big nothing.

Meanwhile, the appeals process will play out slowly. Given the novel charges, this marks the first time in U.S. history that state prosecutors have charged federal election law violations as state crimes or predicates, Trump's got a better shot than most defendants have on appeal. But on balance, he's unlikely to get his conviction reversed, especially at the New York state level, where 20 of the 21 mid-level appeals judge's

And all seven judges on the top court were appointed by Democratic governors. I know it's not supposed to matter, but of course it does. Would we feel the exact same about Trump's chances if the ideological stats were reversed? If 27 of the 28 total appeals judges were Republican nominees?

Trump's appeals won't be fully resolved by Election Day 2024, and he almost certainly will be permitted to stay out on bail in the meantime. Polling is inconclusive so far on the electoral impact of the conviction, but the soundest conclusion seems to me to be that it won't help Trump and it might hurt him a bit. And in an election this close, the margins matter. Next up, the Fulton County DA's 2020 election subversion case. This

This overcharged, overbroad, overhyped showpiece has been circling the drain for months, and now it's clear this trial is not happening before the election or maybe even ever. The Georgia Court of Appeals has begun its review of DA Fannie Willis's potential conflicts of interest and her out-of-court public statements. We don't know what the appeals court ultimately will do, but we do know, first, they didn't have to take this case, but they did, and second, they didn't have to pause the trial court proceedings,

but they did. Neither of those are wonderful signs for the prosecution. If Willis is disqualified, her entire office goes with her, and this case languishes in purgatory as it awaits review by an independent prosecutorial board, followed either by dismissal or reassignment to another county. This would be an undeserved windfall for Trump and his co-defendants,

But when an enormously powerful elected DA gives testimony that, according to the trial judge, raises reasonable questions about whether she testified untruthfully and makes, quote, legally improper public statements that could prejudice the defendants, consequences follow.

The third case up is the DOJ special counsel Jack Smith's Mar-a-Lago classified documents case. The fury around Judge Eileen Cannon calls for her impeachment or removal, a remedy that Jack Smith himself has not sought, by the way. Fantastical imputations of corruption. It's all a bit overwrought.

but she certainly has not been a paradigm of judicial brilliance or efficiency, nor does the judge seem to give a darn about trying Trump before the election. Indeed, recent news that Judge Cannon has postponed several pending pretrial motions confirms what's been clear all along. This one is not happening before the election either. Moving along.

Fourth and last, and most importantly, DOJ special counsel Jack Smith's 2020 election subversion case. The most important of the four Trump criminal cases also faces the most uncertain immediate future. Someday soon, within the next couple weeks before the end of the Supreme Court's term, we will learn its fate.

The court will decide for the first time in American history whether a president or any federal official can enjoy criminal immunity for his official acts. Watch closely, because this will be the pivotal moment of the summer. Broadly speaking, the court's decision could go either of two ways for Trump, leading to vastly divergent legal and political outcomes.

Consider the possibilities. Scenario A, the Supreme Court accepts Trump's immunity claim on the spot, which is highly unlikely, or the court sends the matter back to the trial court for a fact finding hearing about whether his conduct falls within some newly articulated standard for immunity, which is not at all unlikely.

Those additional proceedings and the attendant appeals blow out the rest of the remaining calendar between now and November, and the trial happens after the 2024 election or if Trump wins in 2029.

Scenario B, the Supreme Court outright rejects Trump's immunity claim, perhaps by refusing to recognize criminal immunity at all or by creating some form of immunity test, but finding that Trump falls outside those parameters. The case would then go back to the district court where both Jack Smith and Judge Tanya Chukin are hellbent on trying Trump before the elections.

The judge would likely set a trial date starting in August or September, carrying through mid to late October. In this scenario, Trump would be pulled off the campaign trail and relegated to the defendant's table inside a D.C. courtroom for virtually the entire 2024 election stretch run. And a verdict likely guilty, given the evidence and the venue, could drop just a couple of weeks before Election Day. Indeed, the differences are that stark.

Either this case gets the boot and is mostly forgotten until after the election, or it lands smack dab in the middle of the campaign homestretch and culminates just days before Americans cast their votes. There's really no middle ground.

Over just the past few weeks, we've gone from a morass of four unknowns to three mostly knowns and one still unknown with monster consequences. More than any other contingency, Trump's vice presidential selection, the candidates' debate performance, trends in inflation, the Supreme Court's ruling on immunity will define and perhaps determine the 2024 election. Trump's criminal fate and his political fortunes hang in the balance.

Thanks for listening, everyone. Stay safe and stay informed.

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