The Rally, The RNC, and The Reality of Replacing Biden (w/ Dana Perino) 01:18:43

I'm David Plouffe. And I'm Kellyanne Conway. Welcome to the Campaign Managers Podcast. Well, Kellyanne, we're talking about a topic we hoped we'd never have to talk about, which is the aftermath of political violence in this country. Tragic.

assassination attempt on Saturday evening in Pennsylvania targeting President Trump. Sadly, one of the rally attendees died. Our condolences to their family. We don't yet have investigation details yet about the motive of the shooter, but I'm just curious. Obviously, you know the former president very well. He's heading into his convention. I believe he's already in Cleveland announcing a VP. Just what's your sense of

Maybe let's not even talk about what's changed in the overall race. I'd just be curious from President Trump's standpoint, how you evaluate how he's thinking about the world and how he'll think about moving forward here. Well, President Trump's reaction to being shot and within an inch or two of his life and his instincts to get off that stage to make sure the crowd saw him.

not shy away and not shun his face from the crowd, but to pump his fist in the air is fairly iconic. And I feel like it's almost a metaphor for the country and what he's saying to the country, David, which is if you get knocked down on our knees in these ridiculous wars, economy, border, energy, you name it, that we need to get back up.

I, of course, am very personally shaken. I love the former president and his family. I'm so happy, as I know you are, and every Democrat you know, that he is safe and alive and coming to the convention. I wanted to spend a moment on the victims, particularly Corey Comperatore, 50 years old, shielding his wife and two daughters. Former firefighter lost his life to this murderous 20-year-old.

punk. But I also want to mention David Dutch, 57, former member of Marine Corps. He's damaged to his liver and ribs awaiting another surgery. And James Copenhaver, 74 years old, husband, father, retired. Why? Because I have been to so many Trump rallies. I've been to so many Trump events. I've been up at that podium with him. I've gone through the crowd to sign people's hats and take selfies and

And they're there because they're excited to be part of something they feel is bigger than them. And when President Trump said, Mr. Trump said in 2016, forgot man, forgotten woman. Now many of those people just feel invisible to the system. And he built, he didn't erect a typical conventional political campaign. He built a movement and people felt like they were a member and they feel now that they are a member. And I wanted to mention them because I grew up with a lot of these people and they're a part of my heart.

The the castigation and denigration of them because they didn't go to the Ivy League schools. They don't make a certain amount of money. They don't have two and three homes. They look a little different. They wear these Trump shirts. That's what needs to stop, in my view, because that I've been witnessing for almost 10 years. The vitriol and the attacks on President Trump, his family, his close advisors, his people, his voters. I don't think it benefits anybody to have that.

President Biden or Leader Jeffries, Hocking Jeffries, saying you're mega, mega, extreme, mega Republicans. I know sort of all is fair in love and politics, but is it? Yeah, I'm sorry, Kelly. And I was glad to see universal condemnation from Democratic officials, obviously Republican officials, the violence and very thrilled that Donald Trump was able to come through this. I agree with you. That was an iconic political moment. But the rhetoric has not been...

solely aimed at Donald Trump. I mean, Donald Trump talks about violence with great frequency. Obviously, the Biden family is called a crime family. And when the bus tried to run off the Biden bus in 2020, Donald Trump said, God bless Texas. So I think the question will be, I think the tone in the last 36 hours, and it's only been 36 hours as you and I are talking, has been pretty positive. And I think I'd like to bring us back to practitioners, which is

Do you think at the convention this week from the White House on the Democratic side, do you think there is going to be obviously there's going to be fierce debate about immigration, tax rates, health care. But do you think the personal attacks will be lessened or is that just naive? Do you think we'll be right back to it by Wednesday or Thursday?

I can't speak for other convention speakers. I will be speaking on Wednesday night, actually, right after Doug Burgum at about 835 Eastern. My speech is going to be about strength because the and I think everyone else will be talking about that. The theme that night is make America strong. Tuesdays make America safe. And Thursday, when President Trump speaks.

He has said publicly this week that he is going to have a more unifying speech, but he was already doing that. I feel like he was unifying the party, David, when he came to Washington, meeting with Mitch McConnell, endorsing Larry Hogan, even though Hogan said he won't endorse or vote for Trump, saying to David Valdeo, one of the two remaining nine Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump.

saying to David, how can I help you in your race? I hear it's a tight one. And just trying, I think he's expanding his map, meeting Glenn Youngkin for the first time, the governor of Virginia, going to Minnesota, taking a look at New Hampshire and other places to perhaps expand his map and continue to broaden his reach to these Hispanics and African-Americans and young people in union households and gay and lesbian households, all of which

He may not even get 50% by any group, but he could still become the president. So he's been already trying to unify and expand. And I know the Democratic Party has had a rough couple of weeks after that debate. Seems very divisive. It seems that the map is contracting. It certainly isn't expanding. So even before this, President Trump has a moment to grow in. He can grow into this moment that was given in this opportunity by having a speech could be tough on

The record that we're all suffering under as he sees it, as he said during the debate, especially the economy and the border. But at the same time, to call for unity in the Republican Party and call for unity across the country. Yesterday, he put out a two word post. It said Unify America. And that's what he wants to do. I know that's what he wants to do. Now, it takes everyone to agree. And this is politics. Somebody wants to win. Somebody is going to have to lose. We want certain issues to prevail and others to fail.

There's no question, but not everybody condemned. You've got, you know, a chairman or, well, he was chairman of that ridiculous J6 committee and I testified willingly to it, but it was silly. Benny Thompson, he's got, you know, he's out there last month or two months ago with 12 Democratic co-sponsors. I'd be happy to tell our viewers and listeners all of their names, co-sponsors.

co-sponsoring a bill to strip Secret Service protection of anyone who's a convicted felon. That's aimed right at Donald Trump, who then had a murderer aim a weapon at him. We can't have stuff like that. That's just petty stuff. This country has real needs. And then the Thompson's back because he wishes that she wishes that the shooter...

The shooter should take some lessons and not miss next time. And that Donald Trump, this is what you get for hate and something even worse. I'm not going to repeat here. Well, but I would just say, OK, there's also folks on the right, you know, I think saying that Joe Biden did this, including J.D. Vance, who may be his vice president, general candidate. So I think there have been some exceptions who I think have handled this poorly. But I think on balance, it's been right. And so I think the question for me is, I agree, the Hogan thing that Trump did was surprising.

Valdeo, clearly he is looking at how do I unify my party? My question in terms of the convention and afterwards is, you know, you'll disagree with this, but I feel pretty strongly that Donald Trump will see unity as not criticizing him. No.

And that, of course, is not well. We'll see. Then why did he wait Nikki Haley to speak? Is RFK Jr. speaking at the Democratic Convention? Well, RFK Jr.'s running as an independent. So the point is that he put out a true social post today about the documents case being dismissed. But pretty clear, long post was basically unity is basically people stopping investigating me for wrongdoing I might have done. And so the question will be, I think he has a huge opportunity, like a massive opportunity.

Because I've in the research I've seen, and I'm sure you've seen this, there are voters looking for permission structure. And what they want to see from Donald Trump is perhaps he's going to behave and act a little bit differently. And so if he were to say,

You know what? I was upset I lost to Joe Biden. He can criticize Joe Biden all the ways he wants to. But he says, you know what? But I lost that election. That's why I'm running again. And I'm not going to lose this election. And I'm going to respect it. That would be enormous. I understand this may cause him some problems in some of his precincts. But what I've learned is whatever position Donald Trump takes, everyone gets behind him.

So I think it's interesting whether he seizes this moment where I think there may be senators that are now, you know, maybe a little more open to voting for him than they were before to really show him something different. Well, speaking of moments, Donald Trump certainly had one yesterday. He announced on Truth Social that he had selected Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, 39-year-old first term from the state of Ohio, author of Hillbilly Elegy and someone who is known far and wide for his work.

growing up in poverty, going to Ohio State and then Yale, and being a very strong defender of the MAGA movement after converting from a never Trump, no Trump status in 2016, all the way to becoming President Trump's VP pick. I think the even bigger moment yesterday was when Donald Trump entered the hall here at the Republican National Committee in Milwaukee. It was simply electric. I was there and I saw a very grateful picture

President Trump, somebody who knows he just got a second lease on life after the attempted assassination. Yeah, it was certainly a powerful moment. You know, conventions generally don't have too many of those. That was one of them, I think. And he did seem to be unusually, you know, emotional about that. On Vance, I have to ask you, Kellyanne, and of course, lots of times these stories are wrong. It's been reported that you, Melania, many people in Trump world

you know, favored, whether it's Marco Rubio or another candidate, obviously everyone now is going to get behind J.D. Vance. I saw you said very positive things about him since his selection. But as you think about his selection, should we think about it more from the impact if Trump were to win from a governing standpoint, or do you think actually he could also provide some lift in the campaign?

I think it's both, David, because President Trump needs to and is competing in those upper Midwest states, Michigan, Wisconsin, and of course, Pennsylvania, more Rust Belt. And I think that Donald Trump's easiest path to 70 at this point includes Pennsylvania. It would look something like this, protect the states that he already is expected to win handily.

Add to that North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania puts him at 270. Then if he dips into Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, he's just adding to that tally. So I believe that Senator Vance helps certainly as a running mate in many different ways aligned with the America First agenda. I want to repeat that President Trump does not demand filthy politics.

To him, he demands loyalty to the America First agenda, because if you're not aligned as a team, then you can't get much done. So I think he will help. President Trump and Vice Presidential nominee J.D. Vance plan to go to a rally in Michigan on Saturday. I think that's smart. We certainly won it in 2016, first time since 1988 for a Republican. And in 2020, it went back to Joe Biden. In 2022, Gretchen Whitmer got reelected by double digits.

as the state's governor. But this year in 2024, Michigan's been a real trouble spot for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. 100,000 voters went for something called no confidence over Joe Biden in non-contested primary.

So I think President Trump, when he talks directly to the autoworkers, when he has someone like Sean O'Brien at his convention, the head of the Teamsters, first time in American history that the head of the Teamsters has addressed a Republican National Convention. And Sean was, Mr. O'Brien was name checking Republican House and Senate members who had helped.

the the the union members. And this is fairly new. I mean, Trump made the Republican Party the party of the worker. But for him to be able to truly dip in a little bit more deeply into that base of support from the Democrats is telling. So I would just note in answer to your very important question, David, will J.D. Vance help electorally as well? President Trump was asked by ABC News yesterday, the day he announced his pick,

What do you plan to do with J.D. Vance? And he said, I think I'll leave him in Pennsylvania, which tells you how strongly he's looking at Pennsylvania and the fact that the senator from the neighboring state of Ohio could be helpful there. Well, let me offer a few thoughts as a Democrat. So one, yes.

You know, as a Democrat, I was grateful that he picked Vance instead of someone like a Youngkin or even a Rubio, who I think, you know, I you know, you and I have talked about vice presidential selections and we've lived it. And we know historically they don't make a huge difference. But, you know, I think that would have been a signal to some of the people who voted for Nikki Haley in the primaries where there was, you know, a pretty healthy non-Trump vote as well. Right.

But, you know, I think what Democrats are trying to figure out how to respond to that. And one, I would just remind them, it's probably not going to matter that much really as of, you know, Wednesday of this week, but to the extent that you're going to

you know, kind of make an argument against Vance. It shouldn't be based on the fact that he used to criticize Donald Trump. You know, to me, that's something Trump will embrace, which is, hey, I like when I convince people and convert people. You know, it's more that, you know, he said that, you know, he wouldn't have done what Mike Pence did. He would have found a way not to accept the electors. You know, I think he is even more than Trump in some ways talking about not abiding by election results.

What is interesting to me, Vance, is that

You know, he is a little more pro-union than most Republicans. I'm not talking about the workers. I'm talking about unions. Marco Rubio is also someone that's, I think, made some interesting moves there. So, you know, I think the Democrats have to watch out for that, which is, you know, the truth is the union vote obviously is a lot smaller than it used to be, but still important. And the service sector workers, Democrats still dominate. You know, those that work in the building trades, it's been competitive for some time.

You know, and I think particularly in 16 in your campaign, Kelly, and you guys did quite well. So that's where I think that the battle will be fought. And I think that Vance will probably be utilized in Pennsylvania geographically, but also in that in that cohort. But I think that it also listen, we plenty of time to talk about this at a later episode or even after the election. But it is interesting. I mean, J.D. Vance is only 39, I think will be 40 at the election.

You know, you know, this would seem to be the heir apparent. So I know that Donald Trump picked him for this election and for the next four years if he were to win. But really fascinating dynamic there. And of course, we know that best laid plans, of course, get spoiled often in politics. But I think that was interesting. You know, he certainly didn't pick a a gentle caretaker without ambition. J.D. Vance clearly has a lot of ambition.

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And you can get an extra three months free. ExpressVPN.com slash managers. Don't miss out. On the heir apparent question, it's a good one because the President Trump I know wants to do two things. Short term, he wants to make sure that there is a caretaker or caretakers for the America First agenda and the policy prescriptions that he wishes to execute on and accomplish early in his second term, David. But on the other hand,

Just like at the staff level, he enjoys watching us sort of debate and suss it out and disagree sometimes and may the best argument win. That was certainly my experience in the Trump White House. I always felt heard and listened to, even if I wasn't always followed in my advice. And I always say I wish every woman in the workplace the same gift to have a boss that hears them and listens to them, seeks out their advice.

And, you know, sort of moves on after they make their decision and maybe they go a different way than the advice you've provided. Applying that to 2028 for the Republicans means that, sure, Donald Trump's vice president, whoever it was going to be, would have a natural advantage to run for, quote, Trump's third term. If he were a successful second term president, I believe he will be. But there are so many people who are going to want to run in 2028. It would be an open seat.

I think you'll see a flood of people on the Democratic side, even more on the Republican side. And everybody there will be making the case that they are the best steward of the America First agenda. But they'll add something else. They'll add, but I was good. I did this on Ukraine or foreign policy. I did that on spending over here. I made sure the social conservatives were pleased. So it'd be fascinating. I think the party is at a time, much like our country,

of growth. The party's growing and with growing comes growing pains. But in this case, I don't hear much objection to Senator Vance as the, as the, as the vice presidential pick. I advocated when asked, and I was asked often for Senator Marco Rubio, for Senator Tim Scott, for Governor Yunkin, when I was told who was actually on the short list at any given time. I didn't come up with my own names. And, um,

I just thought that Youngkin and Rubio could deliver more unique voters and help unify the party. It doesn't mean that Senator Vance does not. It just means that there's sort of older and more seasoned. But look, it takes a very confident leader. And Donald Trump is exactly that to pick somebody literally half his age.

And to pick somebody who not that long ago was dead set against him. I think the arc of J.D. Vance going from non-Trump to Trump's running mate is the arc that a lot of Americans either have confronted or are grappling with now. Hey, I like Trump's policies. I don't know if I could vote for him. I never voted Republican. Can I really do this? Can he win? Can he govern? What is this about? Et cetera. So I was really shocked, David. I've been wanting all day to get your opinion on this.

The phone call that Vice President Kamala Harris made to Senator J.D. Vance and said, welcome, congratulations on your selection. I look forward to seeing you on the debate stage. That kind of surprising. I feel like Kamala Harris is trying to prove her debating chops to the rest of the Democratic Party.

because she wants to show she's a better debater than Joe Biden, as if that's a very high bar, and that she's getting in the way of a Newsom or a Whitmer or a Shapiro, anybody who may want to jump the line if, in fact, Biden were to be replaced. But I was very surprised at somebody who doesn't seem like a very skilled speaker on a given day. I'll say that in a nonpartisan fashion, doesn't seem very comfortable at the podium with the teleprompter most days, is often criticized as having word salads and whatnot. I was surprised that she jumped at the chance.

To, quote, debate somebody who in J.D. Vance, who is very telegenic, a very fluid speaker and Yale educated lawyer. What do you make of that? Well, there you go. Raising expectations again for your candidate. It worked for you before the first presidential debate. I'll give you that. Well, listen, I think it's a good human thing to do. Right. Which is to call somebody who is going to be your candidate.

you know, in this case, maybe you're not direct opponent, but to congratulate them. I think that generally has happened. And I think they were waiting to accept the debate until Trump had made his pick. So listen, I think Kamala Harris will prosecute the case against Donald Trump, you know, very effectively. I think you got to remember, if you're a vice presidential candidate, you're not

The best vice presidential debaters are not focused on the person on the stage with them. They're focused on the ticket and the top of the ticket. But I also think, you know, you and I both agree these debates are important. The more the better. You know, historically, we've only had one vice presidential debate. So I guess that's what we'll have. I'd love to see more presidential debates, but also the Biden campaign right now is behind. So they need to take every opportunity. You know, Lester Holt asked Joe Biden last night.

in his interview if he would be willing to debate between now and September 10th. Now, I highly doubt Donald Trump would be willing to.

But what President Biden said was, no, we'll debate on the 10th as planned. I would like him to say, sure, anytime. I mean, you know, when you've when you've had a bad at bat, you know that you want to get back up at the plate and see if you can rectify the mistake. But, you know, the other thing that was interesting because we forget there is these are human beings. So I thought that was a good moment for Kamala Harris to call. And, you know, I saw I saw RFK Jr. There was a leak of a call that President Trump made to RFK Jr.,

yesterday trying to ask him to support him. And what President Trump said, you know, Joe Biden called me. It was actually very nice. He asked me how I, you know, came to turn my head. Thankfully, he did. But it's a reminder that like these are human beings. And sometimes when the curtains pulled back, people can be surprised that they can treat each other

you know, with a little bit of civility and respect. But we'll see. I mean, I think that Vance Harris debate will be highly anticipated. And you're right. J.D. Vance is a great writer and writing, I think, is the

predicate for being a good communicator. He's a very good communicator. And I think that's one of the main reasons Donald Trump picked him, is he is a good communicator for the MAG agenda. So I think that'll be a fascinating, fascinating debate. Well, Kelly, and I know I'm excited to talk about our guest, as you very much are. We're thrilled to have her today. Absolutely. I'm looking forward to discussing this and much more as we get through these next few months.

Well, David, as you just hinted, we have an incredibly special guest today on the Campaign Managers Podcast. And on behalf of David Plouffe and I, we welcome the one and only co-host of The Five, co-host

co-host of America's Newsroom, former White House press secretary to President George W. Bush, one of the nicest and most brilliant people I know, the one and only Dana Perino. Dana, you're accustomed to being one of the five. Today, you're one of the three. Thanks for joining us. Yeah, it's great to hear your voices and see you. Congratulations on the podcast. It's terrific. Well, thank you. I'd like to ask you, Dana, actually, you're in Milwaukee, and we'll talk a lot about the convention, but putting on your old hat as a White House

Press Secretary, we've obviously seen President Biden go out a couple of times, including an Oval Office address, which is very rare for him. As you think about, you know, whether it's this event specifically, or you've obviously had to advise a president just generally when we're going through these moments of national trauma, what's your sort of sense about how they ought to manage this? You know, he's obviously pulled down, I believe, their campaign ads, but he's still got a bunch of interviews. I just love your assessment because you've obviously said,

been through this much more than most people on the planet, how the White House ought to be thinking about this. Yeah. Do you guys remember the show The West Wing? And there was a character on that show named Ainsley Hayes.

And she was a conservative Republican type person that they hired at the Democrat White House in that show. And they basically gave her an office in the basement and they would call her up every couple of weeks and say, what do you think the Republicans will say about this? And she would say, they're going to say you are crazy. So I sort of feel like Ainsley Hayes. I'm like, I don't think they ever take my advice. But one of the things that had been happening in the last two weeks before the assassination attempt was that the Biden administration

And the White House was in complete freefall. And that was after the president's debate performance and they could not find their footing. And it was one of those things where, you know, like if you have a bad day or if you're in a rush, everything makes gets worse. Like then you end up dropping your car keys down the drain and you lost your car.

It starts raining. Yes. Yes. You can't get out of that bad cycle and you're just kicking yourselves and everything you do sounds bad. And you might try to have the president do something. And then, oh, gosh, he didn't say Vice President Harris. He said Trump. And he doesn't say Zelensky. He says Putin. And you're as a staffer probably going, oh, gosh, how do we get out of this? The worst way to get out of it is for there to be a failed assassination attempt on your opponent.

But what actually happened for the Biden team to stop the bleeding was a assassination attempt, like a circuit breaker on the political conversation.

So you had the sort of drip drip of Democrats saying we think Biden should get out of the race. They're looking at the polls. He even says in his press conference on the Thursday night that, look, I'll get out if the polls are bad. I'm like, well, hey, sir, the polls are bad. So I don't know if that conversation actually continues. But and I'd be curious and I will be listening to this podcast when when it airs, what you all think about whether it's less or more likely that Joe Biden makes a change after this situation with President Trump. But

what do I think the White House should do now? I guess obviously the show has to go on in some way. I thought that the president's primetime address fell just a little bit short of hitting the right mark. And the reason I say that is because he was in the Oval Office at the Resolute Desk, and he's telling everybody that everybody has to get better, everyone has to unite, everyone has to be better. And I thought it would have been more powerful if he said, and the buck stops here,

And the peace begins with me. You know, let there be peace on earth and let it begin with me. And then as a leader, he says that. And then America says, OK, I'll follow your lead. And then we find out today that President Trump is rewriting the speech. He's asking for messaging changes from the speakers saying, let's be more united. Let's watch the language. And I do feel that Americans are pretty hungry for that.

Actually, they're not happy about the polarization. They don't actually feel maybe that polarized in their personal lives. I was in Denver two weeks ago and at this big hotel and there's the bowling alley proprietors of America and a huge national girls softball tournament and yet another convention for something else. And everybody's getting along. Everyone's having a good time. Nobody was talking about politics. But I think as the mind starts to focus, as you get

closer to 2024, then the Biden administration has this chance to recalibrate. But the other thing is, you know, Biden has a way of demonizing the voters of his opponents. So the MAGA extremists. And I thought that also might have been something he could have done last night, which is he could have even said, I'm I'm guilty of it. Even I, I know. And watch. I'm going to do better. Yeah.

And then even the Republicans might say, you know what, you're right. We'll do the same, although I don't want to quibble about it, but I don't think Republicans do it as much about the voters as the policies. I'm sure that many people would disagree with me on that. So my advice is...

Take advantage of the circuit breaker. Reset. And then for the party, the Democrats, it's really interesting. All of a sudden you have Trump uniting the Republican Party while the Democrats seem more disunited than before. So, Dana, do you it's fascinating the way you lay it out. I totally agree about not ridiculing and castigating, you know, fellow Americans just because their politics are different or just because.

They didn't go to Ivy League school or don't have two and three houses, and they're just there to enjoy. If I hear one more mainstream media person over the last nine years say, why is the Trump rally so white? Why is it this? And so that's not the way to look at fellow Americans. And I do hear leader Hakeem Jeffries. I do hear President Biden particularly. I do hear now Jill Biden.

saying this extreme MAGA Republican, MAGA, MAGA. Of course, Hillary famously, I think the worst day of her campaign that fall as Trump's campaign manager was when on September 9th, when she referred to Trump voters as a basket of deplorables and also worse, irredeemable. So I do look, people can point to this, that, the other on both sides, but the nut of what you're saying is so important because nobody is putting the rifle in Joe Biden's hand, God forbid, but there is a certain temperature rising in,

And look, either of you can disagree or agree, but to me, most of the Biden campaign is about Donald Trump. It's not about inflation or the border or Ukraine or Israel or Hamas. It's not about crime in our cities or just how to make people feel more secure and affordable in their everyday lives. It's about Trump, Trump, Trump.

And if that's what your campaign is about, then I think you live or die by that, by casting that lot. Dana, I wanted to ask you, and I promised David I would, so then he'll come in with another question. But I heard you speak a lot in the last couple of days about the quote, September 10th mentality. If you can explain to our listeners and viewers what you mean by that, the day before 9-11, of course, something you lived through.

in the White House with President George W. Bush. But also, I'd like you to expand it into September 12th because I've often talked to my kids, now four teenagers, about September 12th, 2001. I felt the country came together.

I felt I just put their, would be their father. They weren't born at the time on the last shuttle from DC to New York that ever took off on 9-11. And I knew he was on an aircraft that wasn't one that had gone into the Twin Towers, God forbid. But we were living that. We lived on the 80th floor in New York. We also lived in Washington, DC. Everybody knows somebody in the whole country and world was affected. But talk to us about September 10th, 11th, and 12th and how you relate that to this political moment.

Yes. So I actually wasn't at the White House yet. I was living in San Diego. I wanted to go back to Washington, D.C. to to work there. Many of the jobs in the Bush administration were already taken by then, like communications jobs that I would have been qualified for. And I had a lot of friends from Capitol Hill that had gone from Capitol Hill then to working in the administration. So they all knew I wanted to come back. And.

So fast forward, I ended up at the Justice Department under Mindy Tucker, who was a communications director. You probably both know her. One of the best people I've ever known. She used to work for Congressman Sam Johnson. And Sam Johnson and the guy I worked for, Dan Schaefer, were very good friends and Korean War veterans together. So...

that's why I had those connections. And on September 11th, maybe 12th, actually, I called Mindy and said, are you guys okay? And she said, Hey, are you still willing to come back to DC? Because I need another spokesperson on my team. So that's how I went back. Um, but then a couple of weeks I was there. So, um,

By September 10th mentality, one time I went back and I asked, what was the White House communications team working on on September 10th? What was the big story of that day? So we go back and it was really interesting.

The White House comms team was there till 10 p.m. the night before because the New York Times was working on a big expose investigative report about the vice president, Dick Cheney's energy task force, because it was really outrageous, apparently, for somebody who had an oil background to be working on the energy policy. So they were there doing that. Of course, by 845 a.m. the next day, nobody ever talked about the Cheney task force again.

And what we learned on September 11th is that in the pre-September 11th and that September 10th mentality, we were lackadaisical about our security. We had an actual law that prevented the legal law enforcement part of our security and our intel unable to speak to one another so they couldn't share information. You look back now and think that is crazy. But

If you go back in history, of course, there was a reason that that was put in place. So then on September 11th and September 12th, and I can't remember the day of the bullhorn speech. I think that was the 14th. But but yes, I think at that point, President Bush had a 98 percent approval ratings like unheard of. Right. But partly because America was like, all right, sir, you said, OK, we're following your lead.

You say we're going to be okay. You say we're going to take the fight to the enemy. We are behind you. Let's go. And that continues for a while. And one of the things he would always say in his speeches is that this is going to take a generation. It's an ideological war that we're fighting. And we cannot ever forget. When he said never forget, he actually meant it. Fast forward. And we have done a very good job taking out terrorists around the world, securing America's

we have a more secure America, though I want to get to the southern border in a moment. But we have more tools in place. They might be annoying tools, like at the airport, might seem like we don't need them, et cetera. But we haven't had another major attack like that since then. So that's all good. But what has been happening is you sort of see this lackadaisical piece of that the farther we get from September 11th, the closer we get to the September 10th mentality. And I think that could have been

just my opinion only, what happened in terms of the lapses in security for President Trump at his rally. Because it's like, yeah, okay, local law enforcement's got that. They've got that. The security is stretched thin. They've got too many things that they're doing. They even haven't given RFK Jr. Secret Service protection. They just think everything's going to be fine. And then it wasn't. And we, by millimeters, avoid a catastrophe immediately.

That would have rocked this nation to its core. So there's providence. There's a little bit of luck. But now there's a chance for all of us as a circuit breaker happened on Saturday to say, OK, there's the policy and the politics and the campaign that's going to happen. But in the meantime, we also have to be rethinking because our other vulnerability is the porous border system that we have and a lack of an immigration system.

protocols and a system that we could use to actually help immigrants who need to be here and we want them here in order to work. That system is totally broken. I'll end on this. The night before I came to Milwaukee, I was on 57th Street in New York walking from my apartment to visit a friend for dinner. And outside one of the hotels where the migrants are staying, here was this...

company, a catering company, laying out a huge number of warm food for all of the migrants that were there milling about, about to get served all of this food. And this happens three times a day.

In the city every day at this hotel where my mom used to come and stay at that hotel because it was near to our apartment. Now she can't stay there anymore. And the way that this is actually affecting people's day to day lives is one thing. There's another thing, which is the worry about the security. Very compelling. But I will I do have to respond to the notion that the attacks on the other party and even voters are.

heavily one-sided. I hope that we see more caution, but you know, it only, you only have to have a third grade or skill at Google searching to see the history of a violent rhetoric aimed at immigrants, at Latinos, at back in the day, African-Americans from Muslims, you know, that Donald Trump and others around him, I think created people who went out there and committed actual violence. And so I think that his rise in many ways was fueled by that.

This guy was as cold and calculated as they come. Maybe we weren't going to get it solved.

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You just have a pit in your stomach thinking, how many people are we going to find? New episodes of American Justice are available every Wednesday, wherever you get your podcasts. I think the question just talking about this week, Dana, in Milwaukee is former president said he's rewriting his speech. He's going to focus on unity.

I guess my question is, my presumption is he will see unity as stop attacking me. That's how we unify. But I do think that as a political practitioner, I don't want to overstate it because we're a very divided country, but I think he probably has more voters that will be looking to

Over this in the aftermath of these events and post debate and may reopen the question of whether they could vote for Donald Trump. Yeah. And the question would be, I think, you know, those voters are looking for permission structure. So what do you expect to hear from Donald Trump? Because I know that this is you mentioned the West Wing. This is the West Wing. It's not going to happen. Like if he were to say something like, let me be clear.

You know, I had concerns about voting in 2020, but I was really mad I lost to this guy, Joe Biden, and he can like make fun of Joe Biden, but say, listen, I'm running again because I clearly lost and I'm going to respect this election, but I'm going to win. I just know from the research I've seen, that's just one example. There'd be a lot of voters who would say, wow.

That's a change because I think people are looking for some cue and it doesn't take a lot usually to say he's going to govern a little bit differently. And it would seem in the aftermath of this tragic event, he's got an opening. So I'm just curious, both in terms of what you're picking up through your reporting, but obviously you're one of the most skilled communicators around. What do you think will happen, should happen? He's such a unique communicator that I'm not exactly sure. But reading the interview that he did with Selena Zito,

And then the one that ran in the New York Post today, I've never had a brush with death.

So I don't know how I would react. And I understand from reading literature of experts about post-traumatic stress or a near miss like that, like how it can affect you in the immediate days afterwards and then in the weeks ahead. But one of the things that struck me was in the New York Post, he said, I wasn't supposed to be here. I could have been dead. It was that close. And he said, I've been given a chance to help unite the country and even the world.

I might be paraphrasing a little bit, but that's the gist of the sentence. And Kellyanne obviously knows him much better than I do. I don't know him personally. I've only had one face-to-face interaction with him, and that was even before when he thought of running in 2012. But he seems to have, at least at this moment, belief that, okay, I've been given an opportunity and I can change it. So he's got the moral high ground, right?

At the moment, and he's got the attention of everybody. So I guess we'll see now. How long does it last? I don't know. But one of the things that's kind of interesting right now, and maybe this has to be with me getting a little bit older or just being a little bit more comfortable with where I am, that I'm not worried about what is next, even for my own life.

I feel like we're right in the middle of this story and I'm not anxious to know how it's going to end. So I sort of, you know, we all try to live in the moment. That's one of the hardest things to do. But with the news changing so quickly every hour, it feels like there's something new. Then I guess I'm just like right in the middle of it saying, let's see how it goes. I think his speech might be quite unifying. Will others that are speaking agree?

Probably. I think, again, that's leadership, right? He's saying, follow my lead. The first lady's, Melania Trump's statement yesterday, I thought was so beautifully written and said,

It would have been kind of neat to be a fly on the wall to listen to her conversation with Dr. Jill Biden. It's really interesting to think about the spouses and how worried they always are. I remember President Bush said that it was harder to be the son of a president and the father of a president than it was to be the president.

Because the president's not worried about the criticism. He's like, I got it, whatever, that guy, whatever, not a big deal. But when it's your loved ones and there's criticism, that hurts more. But if it's like a near miss on his life, that also could change maybe the entire family and bring them even closer together. But of course, I would defer to Kellyanne on that.

Yes. I mean, the First Lady is, people are curious or critical, why isn't she giving a speech at this convention? She, of course, will be here. I think she gave her speech yesterday and everyone can read it. And that is like having a conversation with her, exactly what she treated the country, if not the world, to reading. And I think the most important part of what Mrs. Trump said, if others haven't,

familiarize themselves with it yet is, you know, behind every politician, right, left or center, red or blue is a human being and not always treating each other that way. It's a human being who has family that loves them, whose families would be forever devastated if God forbid the intent was realized from this past Saturday. But she's incredibly gracious. I know very few women, very few women more comfortable in their skin than Melania Trump.

She is perfectly comfortable with what people say, what they do, what they guess. Even when it's very obvious she could correct the record, she often does not because she feels that people are going to say and write what they want to anyway. And she's perfectly comfortable in what her

relationship with the country is, the party, certainly her husband and her son and her family. But I will say this, and Dana, I know you were there and David certainly was there. We've all worked in a White House and it's a very unique experience. I hope we all pinch ourselves regularly because people wait for hours to go see the plate room. I always felt that way. Like, oh, here we are working here again. And it's just a beautiful opportunity for anybody who loves this country the way I know the three of us do.

And we served three different presidents. The Secret Service were always fascinating to me because I didn't grow up with that. I didn't grow up with security. I didn't grow up with any kind of protection. I mean, that would mean a celebrity was coming to town in my little hometown. But I had Secret Service from day one for the first nine months in the White House because of the threats, because as soon as Donald Trump

One, I was blamed by lots of people and people just didn't know how to handle their Trump derangement syndrome. Then it was stage three. It's full on stage five now. And there isn't a therapeutic and no vaccine. So I got to deal with them as a mother of young children daily, 24-7, but watching them and the way they protect presidents and reading books like The Matriarch about Barbara Bush or memoirs that other people have written. They're so fascinating. I think, yes, there was a breach the other day. There's no question. And it's sickening and dangerous. But I think it's a great way to deal with it.

But what these people do day in and day out, the fact that you have Secret Service protection, we probably, the average American says, oh, that means that the president and his family are safe. It actually means that it exists because you're not safe all of the time. Because, and you said it yesterday, Dana, I had said it, I think we both said on different shows yesterday, because I remember Tom Ridge saying it, the first DHS secretary, that

He said that the terrorists have to be right one time and we have to be right 100% of the time. It's so true. And it's the way I always feel about the Secret Service. But we've all witnessed that they literally put their lives on the line to protect people.

They're, they're protectee. And I'm glad that Mrs. Trump said that yesterday too, because people are really concerning. I don't think it's, I don't think it's very wise for David's party to continue with this defund the police, blame border patrol for whipping migrants, which was never true.

I mean, we have to stop attacking. Joe Biden is the most anti-defend the police Democrat. Yeah, well, his vice president is not. So he's going to have to own and eat that. No, but he's a former tough prosecutor. Anyway, I would say this, though, you know, we all worked in the White House and worked for three different presidents. And the thing you learn is you're getting to know the Secret Service and

different events that you're doing is they're very clear to your point. Ridge's point is right, scary, right? And I think all it takes is one person or one group of people committed to a heinous act. And so, but the Secret Service are amazing to see how they leapt to the stage and surrounded him. It's amazing. I'm curious, Dana, just as you think about this week, and I would say this, I know, you know, we've also been around conventions. And the one thing folks who listen to this should know is

There are people at the convention, Democratic and Republican, whose job is to go through every speech. So this notion that someone could say something errant or off message, that's a failure at the staff level, right? It doesn't mean someone might ignore the teleprompter and go off J.D. Vance style and say something crazy. But that's important for people to know, which is you're putting on a television production and people take it very, very seriously.

In fact, I remember in Barack Obama's 2004 keynote address, which is an important part of his rise,

the Kerry campaign took out some of the, a couple of the best lines because they wanted to tell us. And that's just the way it goes. I remember that speech like it was yesterday. I wish it was yesterday, right? It's got 20 years now, but I think that's important to know. So as you think about the convention, there should be no suspense from the Trump campaign standpoint or for the Biden campaign standpoint in a few weeks, what is said. I am curious, you mentioned that this weekend was a circuit breaker in terms of the

effort to replace Biden. I agree with that. I don't know. Maybe it resumes again Thursday. But that seems to be where we are right now, which is the likelihood of a Trump-Biden matchup, which was always the most likely scenario. Maybe there was a couple of days last week where it was likely.

is going to happen. And I'm just curious, Dana, as you think about obviously Fox and every outlet, including MSNBC, where I spend a bunch of time, we're spending a lot of time on, you know, will Biden be replaced? Legitimately a big news story. Do you think that just completely withers? I guess it depends on, you know, if there's another cavalcade. Yeah. I am such an outlier on this.

And since I have no responsibility, I'll just say what I think. I think it makes it more likely that he would be replaced because I think the poll numbers are going to get much worse for Biden. And I am in the Peggy Noonan school of thought where her column last Friday said to the Democrats,

Why not go for it and be romantic and not be so logical? And if you're looking at it and you know you're going to lose, like why not try to win? And perhaps you know you're going to lose. So you use this opportunity to rebrand and regroup and get more settled in for what you want. I'm curious. I don't know enough as you guys do about campaign finance, but if it is true that all of these donors are starting to

put a freeze on donating to the Biden-Harris campaign and pushing it down more to House and Senate races. What does that do to the campaign? You also have all of these Democrats who are now already out there saying they don't think he should run. Donald Trump is picking up endorsements by the day. Then you see the polls about the young people, blacks, Hispanics. Again, he doesn't have to win all of them, but if he wins more of them than he did before, then you're looking at a very different changed coalition. So I sort of feel like he should. But here's the other reason. I think

that there would be a change. I honestly think this might never happen. But imagine if the Senate Judiciary Committee or Oversight Committee invited the cabinet to come to testify and under oath are asked, do you think President Biden has the capabilities to do the duties of the commander in chief, not just for the next four months, five months, but for the next four years? Do you believe that he can under oath

I would be very curious what they would say. Wow. That is, that's powerful. And I don't think that the answer is yes. Well, listen, I think so. Listen, my assessment of this is, you know, well, again, the three of us have worked in the White House. So a lot of doing that job is holding meetings, asking good questions, making tough decisions, having the right phone calls, world leaders, et cetera, et cetera.

So I think Biden's, you know, from what I understand, doing all that well. The truth is there is a performative aspect to the president. Performative sounds almost critical, but it's true. Like the bully pulpit. And and I think that's where there's a struggle. Right. I would argue that Donald Trump also has had some decline as a communicator, but I think Biden's has been more pronounced. So I think that's really the issue. And I think that's probably one of the things that's hard for him is, hey, I'm sitting here making big decisions and, you know, I think I'm doing a good job. I've got a good team, etc.,

but there is this aspect. And listen, that's one of the reasons George Bush struggled in the beginning of his reelect Barack Obama did Donald did, you know, they're busy doing the job. They're astride the world. And in a way the campaign seems like an annoyance, you know what I mean? And, and you really got to be up for it. I mean, you know, and I know I had some really challenging questions with my boss. I think that when those cabinet members under oath could say, I don't know, I haven't seen him since last October.

That's the last time that the cabinet got together. That chair said that too recently. It's crazy, actually, to not even have. But, you know, there's a lot of offline conversation. But right. So anyway, we'll see. Dana, I mean, I will see. You know, I think that for at least four to five days, that conversation freezes. And, you know, there's no doubt the polling has been challenging, but there's also there was a fair number of polls in the last couple of days saying,

pre the tragic events of Saturday that showed, you know, the race kind of settling that probably were helpful to the Biden campaign, even though I think most Democrats are deeply concerned about where the battleground states are. We'll see, you know, if there is a huge change post this event. I think a lot of people are predicting that we'll see. But at the end of the day, you know, my view, and I said this on the air the other day, there's risk with all options, as there usually is when you're making tough decisions.

But it would seem that particularly given, listen, Biden's got strength. It's been enduring strength of senior voters, which is one of the reasons the race is still close, particularly white seniors. But there has been erosion with blacks and Latinos and young voters. And so if you could find a candidate who could more quickly reassemble that, and I'm not saying because Kelly and I talked a lot about this. This isn't just Biden weakness. It's also some Trump strength. Other Republicans aren't doing that well.

So, you know, from a mathematical standpoint. So you're saying it's not Michelle Obama? No. She's been clear about that. She will never, ever, ever speak on it. I have this ongoing debate with Jesse Waters where I always have to pull him back to say, Jesse, she's not running. Why would she want that? I mean, there is no indication. Yeah. She knows too well. So, Dana, I just want to make a quick comment on what you said. And I shared it with President Trump on Friday afternoon. On Thursday, I got credible information that.

that at least Senator Schumer was meeting with some, talking to some donors to vet Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, because I think depending on what else happens, and of course, Saturday intervened and superseded, there's no question, but maybe it would accelerate Operation Remove Biden. I feel there's no one of authority so far who has said, you've got to go. There was a lot of ankle biters, some Hollywood people, but nobody who can actually make him do it like the 90% of delegates he has. So

So if it's Kamala Harris and Josh Shapiro, the first woman of color, the first Jewish vice president, that is romantic, number one. But number two, I think it takes Pennsylvania off the map or makes it more difficult anyway for President Trump. And it does stabilize is the issue of Israel, which has vexed and perplexed the Democratic Party, which has 31 Democratic members who voted against a resolution to condemn Hamas on October 18th, 2023, 11 short days after October 7th.

They couldn't even vote in favor of condemning Hamas and calling it a terrorist organization. So I feel that is a possibility. Like if you actually start putting names together, it makes sense. And why not roll the dice and then recast David's party as the one that always elevates and elects young outsiders like Jimmy Carter, almost 152 at the time, certainly Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, JFK.

Dana, my last question for you is because we hear you have to go. We'd have you all day if you'll stay, but we hear you have to go. Thank you. No, I appreciate it. So you were in the Reagan Library in Simi Valley as a debate moderator last September. You did an amazing job along with your co-moderators. Thank you. And we were here in Milwaukee when Brett and Martha co-moderated the first debate. And it's so fascinating that Donald Trump wasn't on that stage. Eight other candidates were.

And he's the guy who's coming back to Milwaukee to accept the nomination. I'm wondering in that moment as moderator, if you can like tell us something you haven't said before about, did you see anybody there as sort of presidential timber? Did you say, I think that answer is the one that's going to be a challenge for Trump or I wish he were here or did it not even cross your mind? What are you doing? Is it so few people ever get to be a debate moderator? So I wanted to tap into that. I did love the experience and I felt so supported by Fox. I,

The like in the prep, the lead up, that was fascinating. And I loved it. You start with a blank slate. You can ask any question and then you hone it down and hone it down and hone it down. And then you have your plan, which, of course, goes out the window the moment the first question is asked. I do think that the format for a primary debate, that format that we had.

I hate it. I don't know if I've ever said that. I think it doesn't work. I have said that. I think it's impossible when you have eight, was it seven or eight people on the stage? They all agree on 98% of the issues.

So the only thing they want to argue about is who has like personal vendettas against each other. I mean, there was this whole back and forth between Nikki Haley and Tim Scott about something that I was like, wait, are we talking about a fight that you guys had back in preschool in South Carolina? Like, what what are we doing? Also, like everybody was so desperate to be recognized and noticed. And I did just feel that it was a a a tryout for Trump's possible VP. Wow. Yeah.

That's what I thought. That's what I thought we were doing at the time. Turns out I was right. Yes, well, they are. Or at least a convention speaking spot, because some of them have that. Yeah, that's true. But we'll see. You know, it's interesting about the primary debates. I certainly have experienced this on the Democratic side. I mean, moments matter, you know, even in a presidential debate, particularly with social media today, right? As we see, most people are going to vote in the election did not watch the first Trump Biden debate. So they experienced it. But

because the candidates also get so little time and they agree on a lot. It forces everybody, I think, to engage in some bad behavior, which is how do I come up with a line that goes viral, right? And I think that's in both parties, right? I mean, listen, I'm glad the commission's not involved with the presidential debates anymore. I think that's a good thing that we've jettisoned. But if, in fact, we do have a debate on September 10th, I hope, you know, I hope maybe we'll do a town hall where these two candidates talk to voters. That would be great. Yeah.

I'm a big podcast enthusiast, which is why I'm so enthusiastic about your podcast. I think that the pairing of you two, I mean, for those of us that want to listen to the smartest people in politics, this is where you find it right here with you two. And I think that there might be a podcast format on video fine where there is a more thoughtful discussion. Yeah. Right. Where you could actually say you get four minutes to respond. Go ahead. Everybody else muted.

what would you do on inflation, ma'am, sir? And actually have a conversation because I think people are hungry for it. The numbers of people listening to things like this are just skyrocketing. So let's meet the demand. If there's not enough supply for that kind of content on Facebook,

choosing a nominee, then we can create that for people. We know how. No, I love that. That's a brilliant idea. I love that. And of course, the candidates always complain, you can't solve the world's problems in a minute and a half. Why are you asking me to do that? So that's why I think these general election debates between the two men, you have that binary choice. They both have presidential records. It's probably...

a cleaner contrast if people want it. But I'm a huge fan of debates. I think they're great for the democracy. It was very smart of President Trump to skip it. I thought a lot of the candidates staying at your debate and others wasted time saying, where is he? He should be here. We need to hear from him. You don't hear enough from Donald Trump. Really? He's too afraid. Donald Trump's afraid?

So, but it is fascinating. I wanted to say we're almost full circle from the debate you moderated and certainly the one before that here in Milwaukee. And it is fascinating that the people on the stage, the one person missing from the stage is,

who had center stage in 2016 and never lost that spot, is the nominee. And I don't think it's because people are stuck in that they're not dynamic, that they like inertia. It's that they probably think Donald Trump has an advantage because all of us try to hire someone to do a job who's done the job before. And we at least get their references or look at their resume or look at their body of work and decide whether that's for us or not. So

But Dana, we want to thank you. We know you've got to run. Thank you. Really. And thanks for being a listener and our guest today. You bring just incredible perspective as a debate moderator, as a reporter now with your own two television shows, highly rated, of course, as a former White House official and White House press secretary and just a great American patriot. So thank you so much. Super grateful for all of it and for your friendship. Thanks, Dana. Have a great week in Milwaukee.

So David, I'm curious now that President Biden, his campaign have pulled down a lot of the outgoing communications, the ads, the text appeals for money and President Biden adjusted his own schedule.

on Monday after the assassination attempt from Saturday, there doesn't seem to be as much counter-programming as one might usually see when your political opponent is having his convention. What would your advice be in terms of content and timing to the Biden folks? When could they go back up? What should they be saying and not saying this week during the convention? What's basically fair and tasteful given what happened on Saturday?

Well, Kelly, and not to dodge, this is kind of an unprecedented situation, right? So I think everyone's going to be kind of making up as they go along. You know, my sense is you're going to want to respond to issue attacks, inflation, healthcare, immigration in an appropriate way. I think you're not going to want to have negative ads on the air. When did those start back up? You kind of got to play it fair, maybe Friday, right? I know the president of Biden was scheduled to do some interviews yesterday.

I think you should still do those because there's still concerns in the Democratic Party about his candidacy. I think you just have to be careful about obviously every interview saying, you know, political violence is wrong. We're so glad the former president was able to survive this. But I think the level of activity is probably a little less. I think you've got to be a little more careful about tone. You know, I think the same question is true on the Republican side, which is making sure every speech is vetted and you take out things that seem tonally offensive.

inappropriate for the moment we're in. The other question, of course, is leading into Saturday night's tragic events, the big political story maybe in the world, but certainly in America was, was Joe Biden going to withstand some of the challenges to his nomination? I think that that conversation probably is, I don't know if it's off, it's probably on simmer,

You know, probably through the Republican convention. And if you're the Biden folks, you're obviously happy about that because the clock is running here, as Nancy Pelosi said. So we'll see that we're going to have a lot of polls coming out. We're going to have more importantly than the public polls is the private polls. The Democratic candidates for the House and Senate are seeing. So I think that debate probably picks back up. But if you're the Biden White House, you probably think bizarrely.

That you are in a better position to be the nominee as a result of the tragic assassination attempt on Saturday. So, but I think, you know, listen, I always thought that counter-programming against the other party during the convention was a little bit over-cranked, like, okay.

They have the stage. They have the spotlight. Right. You know, obviously, if there was something egregious, you want it. But like, you're just not going to be heard that much. Yeah. You don't have that primetime audience on the networks. That's right. Right. So like, just chill out a little bit. That was always my view. Like, I know, like the rapid response team for the Biden folks and obviously the Trump folks back when we have the when we have the Democratic Convention, August will be busy. But like, from a principal standpoint, I don't know. To me, it's not a bad time to chill a little bit and just make sure you hit the ground running starting Friday.

I agree with you. So Dana Perino, our fabulous guest today for the podcast, and you have now just mentioned in some form or fashion, the polls and president Biden did say last week in that press conference at NATO, which was watched by, I saw more people than watch the Grammys quote unquote. So people are very interested in, in Joe Biden and his performance. He said, well, yeah, if my team told me you can't win, I might step aside before that he had said at the almighty and,

by which I believe he meant God and not President Obama. If the Almighty told him he couldn't run, then maybe he would listen. Then he sort of went down a notch and said, if the polls said it. But in the same press conference, David, President Biden said, I only like the polls of likely voters that show I'm winning.

So how do you square that circle? I mean, do you think that there are polls he would look at? Because there are many polls saying right now he can't beat Donald Trump. I'm not sure Kamala Harris could. We see who the vice president is and what the messages are, et cetera. They roll the dice. But how do you read that? How do you tell a candidate who says, I only believe the polls that show me winning?

Well, it's so it's difficult. Yeah, of course, Joe Biden was referring to God, not even though some critics on the right would would mock Obama is black Jesus. He is not the almighty. So I think that here's what I think. So first of all, during the course of and this is a big change in our politics, really, the last couple of midterms showed this in this race for

For the most part, polls do show Biden does better in a lower turnout environment. That's a big change. So if it's a low environment election, if this race were to close a little bit and Biden begins to get back some of the voters that are currently voting Democrat for Senate, for example, and not for president, if Trump kind of hits his ceiling, then

Is it impossible for Joe Biden to win? Of course not. I think, Kelly, and you would be the first one to say that. Jason Miller said that when we talked to him a couple of weeks ago. We're a very divided country, and Donald Trump does have eye unfavorable. So the question is, you know, you got to look at the probabilities. What is the probability that you come back? And that's the interesting conversation, which is, would another candidate other than Joe Biden, and this, it's almost certainly would be Kamala Harris.

No, you can't say for certain that she would win. You can't even say for certain she would do better. You know, my sense is that a newer candidate, a younger candidate, somebody who might naturally have a better chance of holding on to the Democratic coalition might perform better, but there's no guarantee of that. So that kind of freezes thing, right? It's like, well, my team's saying that it's not impossible. I'm behind. I hope they're telling them he's behind. I know General Malley Dillon would say that I can't speak to others. Here's where the race is. You're down four in Wisconsin, down five in Pennsylvania. Right.

But, you know, is it impossible? No, it's very unlikely. And the alternative, you know, there's no guarantee. So I think that where we were as a party, I think last Friday, even Saturday afternoon before the tragic events in Pennsylvania, you saw, I think, more energy towards people saying maybe we should change. But now Jim Clyburn's come out and said he's fully for Joe Biden. He did that after the press conference. He's got big power on Capitol Hill. So I think in all likelihood, we're looking at, you know, a rematch.

But that doesn't mean, I mean, Joe Biden's behind in this race. And so, and perhaps, I don't know, Kelly, and it's too early to say the assassination attempt, what's that going to do to the polls or the race? I have no idea. The one thing I'd probably feel confident saying is it probably guarantees Trump a little higher turnout, not a small thing, but we don't know. But, you know, Joe Biden's on probation every day, and that's a hard place to be. You got to perform every single day. And you can say that's unfair. I'm being judged unfairly. But when the biggest concern voters have, you know,

is your fitness for office and you've had some performance issues. So that's the thing. That's why I don't think he can afford to go into a bunker. I think he can be smarter this week, post-assassination attempt during the RNC convention about how to be out there. But after that, he's just got to be out there and he's got to perform. So listen, this election, you know, you and I have talked, I mean, demographically, there's some really sort of strange and unusual things happening. We have now have an assassination attempt. We have this question of will incumbent president survive

internal challenge in his own party. We have this rematch that a lot of voters aren't thrilled about. It's really, really tough election to get a handle on. I think it's fair to say right now, Donald Trump has a small but significant advantage in the battleground states, and that's where the race stands. And I just would, I'd like us all in the Democratic Party and in the media to be honest about that, which is that's where the race is. So to the extent that you're evaluating it, really the only question is, can he come back? And what would that take?

And maybe on a different episode, we can go deep into the math because we can go state by state and say what it would take for Joe Biden to win. And can he do that? I'm willing to preview our next episode because I feel confident in saying we both like to tackle the following topic. David, Donald Trump does much better when he's underdog, underestimated. You know, 2016, we're also understaffed, under-resourced. That was a natural habitat for him.

And I suspect the same may be true of President Biden, just because here's a man who's constantly been counted out and passed over. He was passed over by his boss, President Barack Obama, in 2016. He wanted Hillary, thought Hillary could win. Hillary lost to Donald Trump. I'm sure the Bidens are smarting about that. And then the famous article in The New York Times by Glenn Thrush, you don't need to do this, Joe. You don't need to run by President Biden. Nobody's ever denied that.

And now, you know, who knows? All the grand minds in the Democratic Party are sort of talking behind Joe Biden's back. But here's somebody who has a lot of moxie. I do think he's mentally and physically declined. I'm not a doctor, but I have two eyes and two ears. But at the same time, here is somebody who has...

overcome before and been told you can't do this. Get off the stage. That's a ridiculous idea. There's somebody else better. He has buried two children. God forbid, none of us can imagine. So I think there is an understated, there may not be vim and vigor, but there's an understated resoluteness to Joe Biden, if not resilience at this point that people should not underestimate. I guess the big question on everybody's mind is how far will the big stars in the Democratic Party go and

Speak at the convention, certainly. But after the convention, four or five weeks from now for the Democrats in Chicago, David, do they go out on the campaign trail? President Obama was out there a lot in 2022. He was certainly out there in 2020. Will those TV stars and movie stars and musicians and tech giants come out and say, I'm for Biden and I'm going and I'm showing you that I'm here standing next to him? I mean, he was in Wisconsin. He was in Michigan this past week.

And he gave a pretty good, you know, fire and brimstone for him speech. I can't call it a rally. There aren't that many people there, but speech. And, and, and, you know, where was Alyssa Slotkin who's running for Senator? Where was the sitting governor, Gretchen Whitmer, who won the state by double digits less than two years ago. So you've got to wonder who's going to be around him. It's one thing to say, I can do this, but it's quite another, if you don't have a lot of the, if you don't have a lot of the people around you who you need probably to help you move forward. Yeah.

Well, I think that was an astute observation about President Biden. I do think he's got a lot of pride, a lot of moxie. He has been counted out, Kellyanne, so I think you're right. I think that is definitely part of the decision matrix here is he is going to be really, really loathe to be told he can't do this. Number two, my sense is if this all resolves itself, Biden's the nominee.

We go to Chicago. He's the nominee. I think just about every Democrat will say, OK, we had the conversation. Let's go campaign for him. And I agree with that. That's important, particularly when you're trailing. You need voices. I will just say this just as a point of correction, because I think it is important. This notion that Joe Biden was passed over by Barack Obama. Just I'd like to remind everybody his son, Beau, was very ill. He ended up passing away either May or June of 2015. Yeah.

He wasn't running, was very clear he's not running. He was tending to his family. And by the time he began to think about, well, maybe I will run, it was the fall. And by that point, both Hillary and Sanders were getting over 40% of the vote. I remember talking to then Vice President Biden and saying, listen, this would be a different conversation seven or eight months ago.

But right now, Democrats are satisfied they have two choices. So the chronology of this is important. I think it's really important to remind folks that the notion of Joe Biden running for president in the first five to six months of 2015 was just a non-existent.

starter because he was rightly devastated in spending time with his family. By the time he reemerged and said, okay, maybe I'll think about it. You know, our race was just in a very, very different place, but I agree with you that I think he, he will be very focused on the fact that, um, okay, there's the mathematical pathways that my team is telling me or don't exist, but you know,

I was given up for a loser in the 2020 primary, right? There was a couple of weeks there where everyone was saying it was going to be Bernie Sanders. So I agree with that. Well, listen, Kellyanne, so much to, uh,

To stay on top of, you'll be at the convention in Milwaukee this week. We'll obviously be watching you on Fox. And again, go back to where we started, a tragic moment in American history. Hopefully we can see some more control across the political spectrum so that political violence is something that we just don't see in this country. I think most folks in both parties have been clear that we need to settle these disputes at the ballot box.

Not with bullets. And obviously, temperatures are high out there. We have a divided country. But, you know, Dana Perino said something interesting, which is I think there is a lot more agreement that exists amongst people than certainly amongst politicians. Right. And when you have average people talk about their lives, their dreams, aspirations.

it tends to give you a little more hope. So hopefully that will be a little bit more front and center as we close out this campaign. You got it. Thank you, David. So for myself, David Plouffe. And for me, Kellyanne Conway. Thanks for listening to the campaign managers. And remember, now more than ever, it's easy to be enraged, but it is essential to be engaged. We'll see you next time. Everyone have a great week.