Post-Debate Analysis and What's Next for Each Campaign (w/ Jason Miller and Craig Gilbert) 01:29:48

Welcome to the Campaign Managers Podcast. I'm not sure I want to talk about the debate, Kellyanne, but I will. I'll just say a few things quickly, and then I'd love to hear your thoughts. And we have some great guests to help us process everything. Obviously, disastrous debate for Joe Biden, as you and I have talked about. I thought he needed to address the central questions voters had, which is his fitness for office. He obviously didn't do that.

Obviously, a lot of discussion in the Democratic Party about whether he should or will remain the candidate. It's just worth reminding everybody there is no council of elders. There's no they. It's Joe Biden. Joe Biden would have to decide he's not going to be the candidate. I think that's not 100 percent unlikely, but it's close to that. So I think we're still waiting.

having a Trump Biden debate. I don't think Donald Trump particularly had a good debate in the research that I've seen with swing voters. I don't think he necessarily helped his cause. And I say that again, as much as I can, not my opinion based on the research I've seen. I don't think he hurt himself either. I think Joe Biden clearly had a setback. You know, my sense is we'll see some movement. I don't know how much Donald Trump's number will grow in the battleground states, but I think we'll see Joe Biden's

Number softening, and that's probably both a mixture of people going undecided, maybe going to RFK. But obviously, in a race that Joe Biden was behind narrowly, but behind, he needed to seize this opportunity. He did not. It doesn't mean he can't win this race, largely because of Donald Trump's unpopularity. And I think there's still a large...

anybody but Trump contingent out there. But the degree of difficulty now for Joe Biden has been greatly increased. And I believe that he needs the next debate more than pretty much any presidential candidate needed anything. That doesn't mean I'm saying he's going to have a great debate. He may not, but he's got that's the only opportunity left to really address the

The question is because the conventions are important. I think Trump's more because he'll announce his VP. But, you know, it's still speech. It's still speech to partisans. It's not the same as the debate. So, you know, that's my sense is I don't think seismic shift in the race, but a huge missed opportunity for Joe Biden. And I think we will see some small movement. And if not in Trump's direction, I think we'll see some widening of the lead. Joe Biden can theoretically get that back.

But it's going to take a lot of work to do so. So that is my sense. And, you know, I think there's a debate in the Democratic Party. Last thing I'll say, which is whether we should just say it was a bad debate night. Was it more than that? I certainly think it was more than that. I think it's going to compound questions that voters have about Joe Biden's fitness.

And, you know, at the end of the day, I think Donald Trump did provide an opportunity if you were, you know, maybe even Biden of 20 or, you know, Barack Obama or Bill Clinton. I think you would have been able to to use some of the openings Donald Trump provided to really cause damage to him. I think Joe Biden wasn't able to do that. So my sense is that's where we are. And obviously there's active discussions in the Democratic Party, but they're kind of fruitless because the only discussions that matter between Joe Biden and his family is

And again, all signs seem to point to him staying in the race and being the Democratic nominee. So my sense is that's where we are as we pick up the pieces after that momentous debate on Thursday night. David, it was an unmitigated disaster for President Biden, who practically begged to have this debate to try to rescue his presidency, and he has further harmed it.

It's very clear that the best Biden candidacy was the one in 2020, Biden in his basement. People thought that was funny at the time or mean at the time. It was true. And the less we saw of Joe Biden, the better for Joe Biden.

But I fail to see what the breaking news is from the debate. I mean, these people, these big donors, these tech types in Hollywood and senior Democrats and even even staffers in the White House said they didn't know how bad it was that they've been shielded from the principal for all this time. That that was a mistake. I don't know what people saw that was new.

Maybe it's that they couldn't deny it now. But I saw a couple of things that I've been saying for a very long time, including on this podcast, come to fruition in that debate in those 90 minutes. Number one, I have said for a long time that if I were a Democrat, I would have gotten rid of Biden and Harris probably 18 months ago, which was the proper time to have the conversation. Yes, I would include her in that too.

Because if she were remotely competent, she'd already be the nominee. You can make that deal with Joe Biden. You can say to Joe Biden, listen, you can help elevate and elect the first female president of color in this country. And you'll be the guy who did that. Step aside. There's pride. There's arrogance there. They didn't do that. And I thought if you get rid of both of them, get other people in there as the nominees, roll the dice, probably lose to Trump. But then you can make him the face of the opposition, lame duck president.

And you rebuild the party in the likeness of a Barack Obama or a JFK or a Bill Clinton or even Jimmy Carter, 52 years old when he was elected. And so I don't understand what people thought could go well. And I find it to be so incredibly disrespectful, if not inhumane, true elder abuse to have like goosed and juiced this guy in a way that we were, what were we trying to hide the truth from the American public?

This lack of transparency, this pretense that Donald Trump wasn't going to show up at the debate. Someone named Michael who works in comms in the Biden campaign was all over the cable network saying, well, we don't even think Trump's going to show up. Why in God's name would Donald Trump not show up to a debate against Joe Biden? We would all love that perch. But I think many people feel as I do. We don't want Joe Biden to be president.

We don't think he's done a good job at all, but I felt really badly for him and shame on the people around him. We're supposed to love him and protect him to put him in that position. You may want to say Joe Biden had a bad night. The problem for him is he's had a bad presidency. They chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, uh,

caused him to lose independent voters that he has never won back in a single poll. His personal attributes, has the energy, has a plan, cares about people like me, is visionary. None of those work in his favor. The way they worked for President Obama and President Clinton, the last two Democratic presidents we had, even when their overall polling numbers dipped a little bit on other measures. So here's a guy who went into this debate already behind Donald Trump in the swing states among core constituencies that he needs to win.

And he didn't self more damage. I hope he'll show up for the September 10th debate. I hope Kamala Harris will agree to debate whoever Donald Trump puts on his ticket. I think debates are important for the body politic. And I just want to say this. This is the practitioner in me. This is the campaign manager in me. And we are the campaign managers podcast. What's wrong, David Plouffe, with Biden saying on the debate stage in front of tens of millions of people, look, I'm running against a talker.

This guy loves to talk. He's a performer. He was the apprentice. He he's Donald Trump. I'm Scranton Joe. Maybe I don't speak the way I always did. Maybe I walk a little bit more slowly, but I'm still committed to what I've been doing for over half a century, which is trying to improve life for everyday Americans. Well, certainly, Kellyanne in in Sunday or the Monday morning quarterback. Yes. And listen, I thought Joe Biden actually gave a good speech the next day.

And he talked about, I don't have, right. It wasn't obviously a minimal audience, but some of the lines about I don't walk as well as I used to, maybe I don't debate as well. That would have been good to say at the beginning of the debate or closing statement. So listen, we have fierce disagreement about that.

Joe Biden's presidency. I think he's done some really important things. I think he's been a good president. I think this is a challenging race. And listen, I talk to a lot of people who spend a lot of time with Joe Biden every day, people who see him frequently. I think that this is not how he is each and every day, but I think he had one of his worst moments at the worst time. And listen, I think it's fair for voters to say,

OK, maybe it wasn't just one night. What's going on here? And so I think there's two things. Joe Biden's going to have to debate September 10th, maybe more than that if Trump will do it. And he's going to have to do a ton of interviews, challenging interviews. I think he should go on Fox. He should do conservative podcast hosts.

And by the way, that may be a disaster too. But I think, you know, at this point, those questions are not partisan questions. They're real questions. And the only way to address them is to go out there a lot and say, okay, I had a bad debate and maybe I still mangle my words occasionally, but he has some good performances. You know, people feel better about both how he defends the record, contrast with Trump talks about the future. It was a huge missed opportunity. And so I think the only way forward, because I think you'd agree with me,

It's still a race Joe Biden could win. It's the degree of difficulty is harder now, but it's still possible that he could get to 270 electoral votes. But he's behind right now. So I think the question is, from a practitioner standpoint, like, I don't think the right answer, if he assuming he is our nominee, which we have to assume he is, is to say we're not going to put him out there that much.

We're not going to do another debate. To me, that just exacerbates the concerns. I think you've got to go the complete opposite, and there'll be painful moments, but I think that's what you have to do because you're behind. But can everybody stop lying to us? Can the White House press secretary stop saying from the podium, the sacred podium,

Oh, you should see him behind the scenes. He's energetic. He runs around, runs circles around those of us much younger than him. Stop lying to us. We know what we see. We believe what we see, not what you say. And I think they've really shred their credibility on this because they made it sound like Joe Biden is some kind of triathlete trapeze artist behind the scenes every day. No, he's not. Stop saying it. And I think that's a mistake. But I wanted to ask you,

As somebody close to former President Obama, who you know is still the most popular figure in the Democratic Party, who came out of retirement in 2020 to help Joe Biden, his former VP, came out again in 2022 as the most popular campaigner.

out on the stump, was pretty active. What should we expect from him at this point? Well, listen, I think we're talking on Sunday. And so I think where we are is most of the party leadership, not all, is saying, I think, what they should say, which is, okay, he had a tough night, still a good president, and he's our nominee. Because you want to basically...

you know, a Joe Biden most likely is our nominee. So the only chance you have to win is for people who have credibility to make the case. Yeah, he had a bad night. Maybe he's lost a step, still can be a great president. But also you're giving Biden and his team the space to have whatever discussions they're having. Now, the truth is, I think the media believes there's probably more discussions going on than there are about whether he is going to step down again. And this isn't this isn't the party. This isn't a bunch of elders. The only voice that matters here is Joe Biden's right now.

And there's no doubt that I think we're at the point where there's risk with a new candidate. There always is, I think, a different candidate. By the way, Kelly, and you and I both know this, that people who look good on paper, Ron DeSantis is the latest example of this, often get chewed up by this process.

So whether it's a Gretchen Whitmer or Josh Shapiro or even Kamala Harris. I don't think it matters. Right. But, but, but, but I do think a different younger candidate at this point would probably be a tougher matchup for Trump. But again, there's caveats with that, but again,

The only thing that matters here is Joe Biden's decision. And, you know, I assume that within a week or so from when we're having this conversation, it will be clear one way or the other. I think the 95 percent likelihood is he's going to be our nominee. So at the end of the day, I think leaders like Obama and others are giving him the space to process what happened at the debate, which was a momentous moment. There's no question about that.

A race that was hard to win has now become harder. It doesn't mean it can't be won, but it's become harder. So that's what I think is happening. And now at the end of the day, I mean, Joe Biden obviously –

Feels very proud. You obviously feel otherwise, but feels very proud of his presidency, but also that he beat Donald Trump in 2020. So the only thing I'd say is if Joe Biden decides, which I think he will to be the nominee, my view is then he has to win the race. I'm not saying that's the decision you're making.

Right. The decision is if you believe Donald Trump, from your perspective, is that big of a threat to democracy, to our economy, to the world, then you have to win the race and you have to be sure that you're the best person to do that. To me, that's the decision matrix. I'm not saying that's how they'll go through it, but that's, in my humble opinion, the only question that matters if you're Joe Biden. Yes, I agree. But I think you're also right.

missing a Biden. It seems like Jill Biden, his wife, the first lady has outsized influence. And you may say, well, of course it's his wife. I got that. But everybody sees that now for what it is. She's guiding him around. She's saying you answered every question you did amazingly, Joe, minutes after he didn't. And honest people like you and many others are saying exactly that.

I don't know why switching him out would be helpful. And who wants to be that sacrificial lamb? That person probably would lose to Donald Trump and then lose his or her chance to shine in 2028. I don't know about that. I actually think there's a scenario. But listen, at the end of the day, we are where we are. And I'd say, obviously, Biden had a historically bad debate. I don't think Donald Trump had a good debate at all. I think that the race remains competitive for that reason. The last thing I'd say, Kelly, and you and I love numbers is

You know, we will have a better sense within five or seven days about what really happened vis-a-vis the debate. So there'll be public polls you and I trust. We'll be obviously talking to people who've done private polls, the presidential campaigns, but also Democratic Senate candidates, Republican Senate candidates. And I think that that's the most important thing is the voters that will decide this election. Truly undecided voters, people thinking about voting third party, people thinking about not voting.

Was there movement there? Who was it with? How permanent it is? And, you know, I look forward to chewing on all that with you because that to me is the question doesn't it's really not important what I think or you think or even Barack Obama thinks or whatever.

Republican elected officials think it's what how did voters process this? And so, again, I would expect to see some deterioration in Biden's position. I'm not sure that that means Trump grows his vote share, but we'll see. And that's going to be fascinating. And I'm as worried as a Democrat about not voting.

undecided voters as much as I'm concerned about them. I think for a lot of younger voters who aren't sure whether they're going to vote, this certainly was not going to be a reason for them to decide to participate.

And I think we have to watch that very carefully. Let's see how this affects the races down ballot. I've been fairly critical lately of the Republican Senate candidates underperforming Donald Trump in these major swing states, seven or eight of them. And by the opposite is also true where the Democratic Senate candidates are overperforming President Biden. I'm going to be very careful.

curious to see how this debate and just the state of the presidential race affects those because there are many people not interested in giving money to or giving much mind to the presidential race who are very much dialed in.

to the House and to the Senate races. And I'll be very curious. And of course, we'll bring that to our viewers and listeners in the future. No, that's a great point. We'll have to watch that carefully. Well, Kelly, and we're lucky that we get to process all this with a couple of great guests today. We're going to be joined by Jason Miller, Senior Advisor, Donald Trump. He also was a key part of your team back in 16 and has a long career in Republican politics. And we'll also be talking to Craig Gilbert, who's kind of the guru of all things Wisconsin, former

Journal Sentinel reporter for decades, does work with Marquette University in their very respected polls. So we're going to go deep into the probably most important battleground state of Wisconsin. Yes, it's a big treat for our viewers and listeners, David, and I'm excited. Let's get started with our guests. And joining us now, I'm so excited to introduce our next guest, Jason Miller, Senior Advisor to President Trump to the Trump Campaign of 2024. My colleague in 2016, the Director of Communications,

for the Come From Behind historic Trump-Pence campaign, and a longtime colleague and friend. David Plouffe and I are welcoming you to the program today, Jason, after what was a historic debate between Trump and Biden, and I look forward to what's going to be a busy July for President Trump, sentencing on July 11th, VP pick,

Republican National Convention happening in the swingiest of swing states, Wisconsin. So thanks so much. We're going to throw it over to you just to get your top line thoughts about the race and the candidate that you are with every day and what you're thinking at this inflection point post-debate and pre-July big events.

Well, Kelly and David, thank you very much for having me and both of you being very skilled and accomplished campaign managers, both having won presidential elections. You know what this is like going into a massive debate, what we saw with President Trump and Joe Biden this past Thursday. And really, when you back it out from kind of a tactical standpoint, you have one goal going into a debate like this, and that's to make sure that you're putting some sort of vision out there for the American people for where you want to take the next four years, where you want to take the presidency.

And I think that President Trump very much accomplished that on Thursday night, laying out his case for restoring the economy, securing our southern border, bringing back some of the world peace. And I think Joe Biden came short on that. Now, everybody's talking about the freezes and the performance aspect from Joe Biden. Some of that you can manage, some of that you can't, but really it comes down to who put forth the vision. I think President Trump did it.

Yes. And I do notice that the sort of media narrative changed because of Biden's performance. I didn't see much breaking news in Joe Biden's expressions or the way he was speaking. I think we've been exposed to that again and again, if you've been paying attention. But I like to say, Jason, my own perspective that

Yes, President Biden lost the debate, but President Trump won the debate. And those are two very different things because your opponent can lose, but you still need to win. You still need to make the case as to why in this particular position uniquely,

Someone who was president for four years should be president for the next four. So there's a lot of talk about how different the preparations were for these two candidates. And I think it's not just Monday morning quarterbacking since they both committed to a second presidential debate, it sounds like September 10th.

And people are really fascinated on what goes into the preparation. Very different preps, in my view, knowing how President Trump likes to prepare. I think we see his preparation very, very publicly. He's out doing rallies. He's on podcasts and radio shows and television shows. He's doing truth social posts. He's doing those videos wherever he is that are posted immediately. We kind of always know what Donald Trump is thinking.

on the daily. And then it seems to me President Biden did what Secretary Clinton did in 2016. You and I will recall she took five days or so off the trail to go and prepare, leaving the podium and the pulpit all to us on the Trump-Pence campaign where he was able to go and bring his case to the people. But

Tell us what you think works and doesn't work. How does President Trump prepare behind the scenes? If you can give us a little bit of perspective on that when you're flying around on the plane, if you're sitting having policy time. I think people really want to hear what goes into Donald Trump preparation because he doesn't take five days off for rest and rehearsal and yet gets up there and is a game day player.

Yeah. And the both of you know that every single candidate, every president is going to be completely different. The way people absorb information, the way that people get ready for the big game. As President Trump always says, really, it's if you go out there and practice your golf swing a day before the tournament, two days before the tournament, that doesn't mean that your golf swing is going to be good the day of the tournament. You need to be ready to go on the day of the tournament. But President Trump is someone who's going to become sharper, be more focused, as you said, by simply going out and doing it. Never once.

before leading up to Thursday's debate, did President Trump get behind a podium? Never once did we time out his answers with a stopwatch and say, here's exactly where you are. But President Trump is so used to doing this, whether it be in the rallies, whether it be in the interviews, even with mainstream media, even with tougher outlets, that he knows exactly what the marks are. He knows exactly how to deliver. He's, as Dick Vitale would say, the primetime player. And you have to build everything around that.

the principle around the president or the candidate in this case, because it's all about how you amplify their message. Both of you as successful managers work with people who are larger than life personalities. You don't go and try to shove words in their mouth. You don't go and try to tell them to rehearse a bunch of can lines. You let them be them. And you try to amplify what they're saying rather than try to have them fit some box that may have worked for some previous candidate.

Right. So, Jason, first of all, is President Trump still committed to the September 10th debate? Are you guys going to do that?

I think really it's on Biden. President Trump has said anywhere, anytime, anyplace. But David, there is no way that the Biden people allow Joe to go back out there in September. That would be absolutely malpractice. I mean, it's not as though in four months from now or several months from now, I should say, time moves really quick, that Joe Biden's going to be any sharper. That's not going to happen. He's not going to Benjamin Button here. So I don't think they're going to let him back out.

Well, assuming he stays in the race, which I think he will, I think he will debate again because he's got to have a makeup. So we'll see. So question for you. So I don't think there's any dispute that Joe Biden had a terrible debate in the dial groups and focus groups I've seen with swing voters.

while Biden didn't help his case, I did not see real movement for Donald Trump. And I'm just curious, I know your colleague, the other Miller in Trump orbit, Stephen Miller said, Trump's debate performance is unrivaled, magnificent, the best ever, and it's not even close. Now, playing to the audience, but is that how you guys see that? And I ask that to you as a practitioner, which is you guys obviously are also doing research

you have some sense of how the race moved or not. Are you really of the view that, because I think the question is, I would expect in some of the polling that we see both private and public, I would expect Joe Biden to take a hit. My assumption, it'll be more vote leaving him to either underside it or maybe RFK as opposed to Donald Trump gaining a lot of vote. But maybe you're seeing that Trump is gaining two, three points in the battlegrounds. I'm just curious,

If you really do in your heart of hearts believe it was the best debate performance of all time, and if so, I would assume then you will see some movement in Trump's vote number.

Well, I think two things can be true at the same time here. I do think that this was President Trump's best performance ever. I think it was the single biggest win that we've ever seen in a presidential debate. That's bar none. That's, I think, easily the case. But also, this is a very divided country. This is going to be a close race all the way through. So I do think that our lead will grow. President Trump's share of the vote will increase, particularly with independents and people who

Wonder who can bring back the economy in the board and the strong border. That's why I said it's all about the vision, because a lot of the independents, some will have seen the debate or undecideds, both independents and undecideds. Others will absorb the information from news coverage, maybe the next day, maybe in the ensuing days.

And the coverage since Thursday has been brutal. And you have to know this is going to impact Biden's fundraising. It impacts, it takes them off of their message. They're not talking about the economy. He never talks about the border. They're not talking about how they're going to restore world peace. Obviously, again, something that I would say that he can't, they're way off their message. Right now, they're clinging on for dear life. They're going back to Camp David, which of all the places that you'd think they'd go to maybe like

you know, to the beach or somewhere, why go back to Camp David, the scene of the crime? That one makes no sense to me. But it takes them away from talking about what they need to do to hold the vote that they have in place. So do I think there's going to be a massive swing? No, the country's too divided. But do I think this is going to hurt Biden and help President Trump? Absolutely. Right. If I could just ask one other question, Kelly, and before you jump in. So you mentioned, I think there was 51 million people watched the debate. So that means depending on turnout, 90, 100 million people didn't.

Now, there's no doubt that a lot of those people are seeing negative Biden memes that, you know, no doubt headwinds.

But there's also an interesting debate around, you've probably seen this, where I think just given your goal, and I think you're showing some, you know, you've seen some movement. You're trying to attract more support from Black voters. And if polling, you're seeing that. But this kind of a controversy on TikTok and YouTube, what does he mean when he says a Black job? You've probably seen there's been some pushback to that. What exactly does he mean when he says that?

Well, I think what President Trump is speaking to is the reality that the invasion that we have on our southern border, the 20 million or it could be as high as 20 million

illegals have entered our country under President Biden are impacting those who are the working class in this country, whether they be Latino American voters, whether it be black American voters, and they're taking jobs that many African Americans and many Latino Americans currently have. And so that's what President Trump is talking about is that he's going to defend those jobs and protect those. The other concern too, is it's not even just say on with African Americans or Hispanic Americans,

Also, too, look at the union vote. Look at the people who are being undercut, not just from Biden's crazy regulations, but also with this migrant invasion. And so a lot of American jobs are being created. I mean, the studies show that the new jobs are being created under Joe Biden are really migrant jobs that are coming in. And otherwise, it's all recovery jobs and stagnant otherwise. So President Trump's going to try to defend Black American jobs. And he's putting the debate has now changed.

The debate is who's the party of the working class, who's the party of the Wall Street elite or the establishment. I think President Trump is we've come a long ways since Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney. I'll tell you that. Yeah, well, we'll see. I do think there's always these, you know, I've been part of good debates, bad debates. There's always the stuff that then kind of emanates after the debate. And I do think that's worth watching. I understand you're trying to make a broader critique. I think he kind of shortcut. Anyway, Kelly, over to you.

No, I appreciate all that commentary, David and Jason. I would just say, Jason, that one big arc is

of the storyline since the first debate between these two gentlemen is, you know, what were all the senior aides and even the first lady, Jill Biden, thinking, allowing President Biden to go out there against Donald Trump on a split screen, looking vacant, stumbling and mumbling and bumbling. And I have a lot of pity for him because I think he doesn't belong there. I think if you love someone, and this is what's happened with their mental and physical health,

abilities, agility, ability, energy, and acuity, then if somebody loves you, they take you off the stage. You spend the rest of your years. I hope Joe Biden lives another 20 years. I just feel like they should be spent in Delaware, ASAP. And so there is that storyline, you know, for all the coverage of the Trump family and Melania Trump, it's like, wow, what are we doing over here?

Hunter is going to be sentenced in his California case. Jill Biden is now being criticized through blind quotes by senior aides, by other Democrats saying, you know, she should she should not.

you know, try to take over and look like a Vita up there most of the time. But I wanted to play it forward for you. Let's just say that people get their way and Joe Biden somehow leaves the ticket. I think it's a very remote possibility. Here's a man who ran for president three times in two different centuries, finally got the brass ring. He's credited with getting rid of Donald Trump in 2020. And he's credited with putting on as poor of a choice as it ended up being. He's credited with putting on

As his VP, you know, the first woman of color in our nation's history. We can celebrate that on paper, but in practice, she hasn't actually built confidence enough that people are saying, you know what, it's time to hand it over to Kamala. Instead, we're hearing names like J.B. Pritzker and Josh Shapiro and Andy Beshear and Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom. I want to ask you, Jason Miller, somebody...

close advisor to President Trump on the daily. Does it even matter who the opponent is? I mean, wouldn't all these people have the same policies? Have any of them stood up for a single moment and said, we're slow on inflation, we took too long on the border, we're chaotic abroad, we didn't contain Iran? Oh, and I never even had the courage as a senior Democratic elected official to say, I think President Biden has done a wonderful job in public service over more than half of a century.

but it's time to leave the stage. Does it really matter? Is there anybody out there that you would really fear, beginning with Vice President Harris or any of these other folks in place of Joe Biden?

No, because really, in many ways, this is similar to 2016, where you have the agent of change in President Trump versus the establishment status quo, which in this case is Joe Biden. Anybody who, say, if they were to go and make some sort of change, and I'll explain why I don't think that that's going to happen. David probably has a little better intel on this than I do. But anyone who they might potentially replace him with, number one, would have been part of the cover up.

They would have been people who would have been around Joe Biden plenty enough to know that, hey, things haven't exactly been right. And also, too, as you pointed out, Kellyanne, their policies are going to be the exact same. Now, I don't think Joe Biden ultimately leaves. If you take a look at the Democrat Party rules, some 3,700 out of the 3,800 regular Democrat delegates are bound on that first ballot. So you're not going to force Joe Biden out.

But when you look at would he, in his own volition, go and leave? Well, I don't think that's the case because a post-presidency life for Joe Biden, as we've seen what's happened with President Trump, the genie has been let out of the box. I don't think a post-presidency for anyone going forward, anyone's going to get off scot-free. You can imagine J6-style commissions. You can imagine state or even federal, who knows what happens on the legal side of things.

things are going to get bumpy. And we've effectively turned into a banana republic, a third world nation. And I think that's unfortunate, but that seems to be the reality. But going back to the policies, more importantly, those policies aren't going to change. It's not as though someone, say another president

prospect is going to come in and say, boy, Joe Biden had it totally wrong. Let's put President Trump's border policies back in place. Or maybe the $2 trillion deficit we're running is a bad idea. Let's go and stop the free giveaways. They're going to be stuck into that lane, I think.

So, Jason, I mean, I think at the end of the day, this is one person's call, Joe Biden. I assume as a campaign, you're not spending too much time alternatives, but you're spending some time. And, you know, I think there would be someone emerging who may have a lot of the same policies, but would, you know, have different strengths and challenges. You know, there's risk, I think, on both paths here. But I am curious, though.

I mean, Kellyanne, I think you have said publicly you told Donald Trump, you know, around Election Day in 2020 that he lost. I think the country, you know, was better for that. Jason, you've also spoken publicly that you think Joe Biden won the election. The question is, and particularly because you guys now as a campaign are embracing early vote, which I think maybe as a Democrat, I'm not happy about. I think it's smart for you to do that now.

And I say this because Donald Trump, you know, has not been a great vote getter. He won in 16. You guys ran a great campaign. You threaded the needle. But he won battleground states around 47, 48 percent when he lost in 20. Same thing. I still think you need to grow. And it would seem to me like he repeatedly did not say, I'll accept the results of the election.

And I understand there's some in the base that like that, but I'm just curious. It wouldn't take much for Trump to give some signal to voters, independent voters in particular, to say, okay, like if he said, you know what, I am going to accept the election results. And maybe he can say, you know why? Because this time we're trying to get people to vote early. Like that would do him a world of good. Why does he not do that? And I say that as a practitioner, not as a partisan.

So President Trump's tone and approach to early voting and absentee voting has completely changed in 2024 in a good way. He's out there advocating for it. He's pushing it on the campaign trail and his stump speeches. Also, the mechanism mechanics that are put into place with the RNC and others are very much to take advantage of that. With regard to 2024, President Trump has said that as long as it's a fair election, that he'll accept it.

but americans want to look forward they they don't want to keep looking in the past anyone who's going to base their vote on the 2024 election based on what happened in 2020 they've already made up their minds what americans want is to get that economy back what they want is a secure border every day when we see these headlines about a lake and riley or rachel moran or see the international chaos the killing in ukraine the terrorist attacks in israel people are saying well

We wanna get back to peace and stability. David, you know this, Americans, particularly the working class,

are really suffering right now. Anyone who is dependent on interest, whether that be the interest on the mortgages, whether it be interest on monthly credit card debt, the 80% or so of Americans who actually impacted by say interest rates, they're struggling. I mean, this has become like, hey, can we even do pizza night on Fridays anymore? People are now, and this was a bizarre stat that I saw a week or so back.

that more than half of Americans now think that eating fast food or going to McDonald's is a luxury. Mickey D's is now a luxury to more than half of Americans because of where the economy is. This is a different election. This is much different. This is where people are saying, who can help me out? And David, as a practitioner, you always look at, of course, you look at things like right track, wrong track. You look at voter optimism. Right now, it has dropped so low that Americans don't think it can ever get better.

That was why when I saw the word cloud coming out of from independence coming out of Thursday night, the word that popped up for President Trump that you might not normally see was hopeful. And that's because for the first time in a long time, a lot of Americans actually think that things can get better. That's a big shift. That's like a tectonic plate shift in American politics because voters are so distraught by what they've seen the last three and a half years.

And if I can follow up on that, just to clarify, and I think Jason's in the same camp, David, I didn't tell President Trump on Election Day that he lost. I told him he had every right to exhaust...

all of his legal challenges up until about December 14th, when the voters would, excuse me, the electors would certify the election results. And they did that. They filed lots of lawsuits. I don't think the election was fair in many places. We'll never really know what happened. However, the way you win is the way he'll win this time, which is you just get more electoral votes than the other person. What I don't care for at all is that the main vestige

of COVID-compelled behavior and regulations in this country seems to be the way we vote. How did that happen? And I blame a lot of Republicans and Democrats for making that so at the state level. I mean, we're not wearing masks. Our kids are in school. Businesses are open. We all fly around all the time. We're not sitting at home. Everything is different from COVID except the way we vote. And that makes no sense. And so I'm really happy to hear Jason Miller, senior advisor to President Trump, talk very robustly

and very resolutely about the value of voting early. And he's reflecting what President Trump himself is saying. Because Jason, I, and David knows, our listeners know, that keeps me up at night, the mechanics, the process, because we don't know how good the ground game was, how great the early vote program was until it's too late, until all the votes are counted. I didn't appreciate charlatan after showman after supplicant peddling their wares in front of the resolute desk. I thought it was unfair to President Trump telling him,

You know, you actually won. We're going to show you the evidence. We're going to prove it, et cetera, because they weren't able to do that. But they all, you know, they love a trip in front of the Resolute Desk, I suppose. I will say this. After Thursday night, there are many Americans who do scratch their heads looking at that debate and say, you're telling me that Joe Biden got more votes than President Obama? He got more black votes than President Obama? That makes a lot of people scratch their heads. And I think as- But it's the truth. It was a huge turnout election, you know.

It was a huge turnout election because we- Donald Trump got 74 million. Right. But I also think there was huge interest. And I think, let me, if I could. So first of all, we've been, I've run campaigns for a long time. You have Kelly and Jason. Like there's been states for decades that have had a lot of early vote. I think that's the trajectory. So campaigns have to basically maximize the roots for their supporters to vote. And I think it was really harmful to Republicans, not just Trump, to attack it. So you've switched course now, which also hopefully means

that he will not be maligning those votes on election night. But I am curious because I want to go back to September 10th, Jason, because Joe Biden has to debate again. He's going to debate again, assuming he stays in the race. And so the question is, again, as a practitioner, it would seem to go against hyper Donald Trump, not to kind of duck from that and say, nope,

But but is there an argument that you guys say, you know what, we had such a dominant first debate, at least as it relates to Biden's performance? Again, I don't think Trump's performance was very strong as voters judge it. But you might you obviously think differently that you don't give an opportunity for a rematch. Like, how are you guys thinking through that?

David, I appreciate the spin on that one. But you know, this is all on Joe Biden at this point. President Trump has said anywhere, anytime, anyplace. So he'll debate. If Joe Biden says, I want to rematch, I'll be there. Trump will be there. President Trump has accepted the fall debate. He's also accepted, said that he would do other debates, other town halls.

President Trump's ready to go. The issue is Joe Biden and is there sitting around in Camp David today? I'll tell you the one thing that they're not talking about in Camp David today is boy, we can't wait for that September debate to get here or you know what? Let's go and have a debate in July or August between now and then. That is not what they're talking about in Camp David today.

Well, Jason, so let me say, first of all, this Camp David thing is a family thing. I'm sure they're having other conversations, but it was scheduled. So but but I but they have to debate. So I'm just you know, I think that. Well, listen, that maybe maybe they won't agree with that. Right. But let's let's be honest. I don't think Donald Trump gained much from a voter standpoint after this debate. I think Joe Biden has lost something. But Joe Biden was behind heading into the debate. And, you know, his fitness for office is the biggest question voters had. Right. He has.

Certainly not answered them, maybe exacerbated them. So the question is, I agree with Kellyanne that conventions can be important, but they're not like this, right? You're still giving a speech. It's to your supporters. I don't know. Like my sense is Biden is going to have to debate again. It sounds like Donald Trump says, fine, let's do a rematch. I just think that it's interesting to me that you think that he won't when given where the race is,

They're really that's the only remaining opportunity, I think, to convince more people. OK, I had a bad night. That's what he says. I had a bad night. Now, if he has two bad nights, I think we know where we'll be. Right. But if he has a better night, it's his best opportunity for particularly some of those independent voters to say, OK, I just think that's where. And listen, it may be that he asked for more debates and it sounds like Trump will say yes. So I just wanted to talk to you as someone who's counseling President Trump. You guys just had a debate that went much more your way than your opponents.

And there's an argument to say we're going to pull the rug out and not give my opponent an opportunity to to to come back. Jason, I think that President Trump is also hasn't he also committed to the vice presidential debate on behalf of whoever his pick would be? He did that already. We were yet to hear from Vice President Kamala Harris that she'll actually debate Fox News. I said it'll be Virginia State University, I believe. Is that true?

Yes. The other thing I'd say is, David, I mean, every night is a bad night for Joe Biden. It's not as though he did have the one good night on State of the Union, but it's not as though they just now were like, man, that was a bad night. This is every night for Joe Biden. And this is the fact that so many in the media have been silent about this. Remember, David, I'm old enough to remember that a week and a half ago we're talking about cheat fakes.

These are videos that are taking President Biden out of context. He doesn't behave like this or walk like this or talk like this. And then the entire country sees it in real time. But President Trump is always going to march to his own drummer. He's always going to do his own thing. And

from your perspective, I think might be kind of the conventional wisdom of going and retreating. President Trump is going to do the exact opposite. He's going to do his thing, which is he's the one who's ready to lead. He's been president before. He's ready to do it again. He doesn't fear anything. And so from his aspect, he's showing that he's the leader here. And I think that's really the decision on the Biden folks side is what do they do? Because I mean, think about it. There's it

It's not just the performance. And this is, I'm gonna go back to my very first answer on the show. It was the fact that Biden couldn't lay out a vision for what he wants to do for this country. He was not, I mean, these were the most basic questions that everybody could have assumed or guessed were coming.

Biden couldn't lay out a vision for how he's going to improve the country. President Trump could. And if you're not ready for that, I understand performance, but this isn't performance. This is just basic. Do you know why you want to be president for another four years? Joe Biden couldn't answer the question. Well, I'm not sure. Go ahead, Kelly. I want our listeners to benefit from your question.

unbelievable experience and the depth of your wisdom and a practicum, if you will, as a communicator, as somebody who deals very well with the press, particularly behind the scenes.

I feel like the voters are changing, who the swing voters are. President Trump's doing better among African-Americans and young people and Hispanic Americans and some suburban voters and younger people. I feel that the campaigns are trying to do things a little bit more differently to try to keep up with what a campaign is in 2024. But the one thing that never seems to change is the media. And here's the New York Times editorial page demanding Joe Biden drop out days after

They gave license and credence and a platform to these ridiculous notions that, quote, Donald Trump wouldn't show up to the debate. That never made any sense, but

Serious people put it in print and repeated it on television. But the New York Times, through Katie Rogers, wrote this ridiculous puff piece about the prep going on at Camp David. And she talked about everybody's eating lasagna. And she had a list of 30 people who were there. And then they turn around and have the audacity to say, please drop out of the race because everybody got to see what we've seen forever. I want to hear from Jason Miller.

How you deal with the media. Tell the down ballot candidates right now running for Senate, running for House as Republicans, instead of saying media bias or fake news or feeling frustrated. What is the best way to deal with the mainstream media when you know they're dead set against you as a Republican who supports Donald Trump and he supports you progressing?

Well, there's a bit of a jujitsu here that we're going to continue to use it to remind voters that you can't trust what many in the mainstream media are saying. They were behind this cover up just as well as those in the Biden administration, just as many in the polls.

the senior levels of Democrat leadership across the country. They've known that Joe Biden was like this all along. They didn't sound the alarm bell after 20 million illegals. They didn't sound the alarm bell after a $2 trillion deficit. Average households have been hit by approximately a $28,000 inflation tax, so to speak, the impact on them.

And if they didn't sound the alarm after that, they didn't sound the alarm after Afghanistan, the single biggest disaster, most embarrassing moment in our nation's history. But just now, because of the debate performance, they're sounding the alarm. I think that really destroys the credibility for many in the media. We're going to continue to call that out. Yet, despite all that, you think it'd be a 60-40 race. Would you agree, Jason, that there's still a pathway for Joe Biden to get to 270? Absolutely.

but David, going back to my early answer, that's, I said, this was going to be a close race all the way through. I mean, the polling we've seen since Thursday. And you still, you still think that post debate. Yeah. Oh, it's of course it's good, but that doesn't mean that there hasn't been movement. We saw on, uh,

This weekend, yesterday, we saw that President Trump is now leading in Killian's home state of New Jersey, 4140. We saw that in Detroit, excuse me, Michigan, one of the most respected Michigan polls has President Trump now leading by four outside the margin of error. There's definitely a shift, definitely a movement.

this is going to be a very close contest. We have to work hard, not taking anything for granted. And it's also, it's a divided country still. A lot of people are angry and upset by the policies that they see that are in place. And there's still this battle between those who want to change the system and the system trying to hold on to power. And a lot of that still continues. And so it's going to be

tough all the way through, but I feel better about things today than I did the day of the debate. It's, uh, president Trump was able to show that he had a vision. Joe Biden, not only did not perform well, he showed he had no vision. I'll take that match up any day.

We would commit malpractice if we didn't ask you. We know you can't reveal, but there is a growing thought that now that President Trump has pulled ahead in some of these non-swing states, had a great debate performance, et cetera, Jason, that he can expand his reach in terms of who he picks as his running mate for VP. Not that he would have ever played it safe and not that he would ever

take the counsel of others over his own opinion. One person will make that decision. We both know it, but it's long been rumored that it's Rubio, Burgum, Vance. The long short list has been winnowed down, but what's your opinion on that? Can there be a dark horse out there? Are you asking other candidates perhaps for their vetting materials? In addition to the great options that you laid forward, President Trump has also brought with me other names. And so until we hear him say it from his mouth,

Your guess is as good as mine. That's good. But we wanted to hear that. And I guess if they're sticking with Joe Biden, they're sticking with Kamala Harris also. So hopefully she will agree to the debate. People would like to hear more from her. There'll be a debate, I think, where and when and who sponsors it. But there has to be a debate. Listen, I think Kamala Harris. So she's afraid of Fox News? Hey, listen, I think these guys should be willing to go debate in Mar-a-Lago. Like we need debates, OK, on the Democratic side now. So we'll see.

Well, Jason, thank you. And I appreciate your take on where the race is post-debate and where we head from here. Jason, we know how busy you are. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you both. Congrats on the podcast. Thank you. Take care. Well, it was great to hear what Trump world thinks about the world post-debate and the challenging in a few weeks ahead. So now we're going to go talk to someone who knows probably the most important battleground state better than anybody on the planet, Craig Gilbert.

longtime chronicler of Wisconsin elections, including many, many close presidential elections. And also does a tremendous amount of work with Marquette around their very respected polls. So, Craig, I'd just like to get your sense, first of all, what your sense is post-debate. I mean, obviously, you still talk to politicians in both parties. You talk to voters. I'm sure you guys have a poll out soon, but kind of what's your take about where we are? Actually, we just had a poll before the debate. Right, right, right.

Not too much mystery about what the state of play was before the debate. I mean, it was just a toss up no matter, you know, every possible way you could measure it. Uh, the election history, the current polling, the last year of polling. So post debate, I mean, I've talked to a handful of, you know, smart and experienced Democrats, um, you know, deep dismay, obviously. Um,

I wasn't picking up either denial or panic, two words that have been thrown around a lot. You know, I would say they're not in denial in the sense that they're not sort of buying the notion that this was just an off day. I mean, there's deep concern about Joe Biden's effectiveness as a candidate in this cycle.

And it's not panic because, you know, we all saw what we saw and there's a natural reaction to that. But it's also tempered, I think, in the case, again, of sort of professional Democrats tempered by the knowledge that if Joe Biden wants to try to ride this out, there's not a whole lot going on.

that can be done about that. And also, you know, the alternatives are messy. So I would say it's a pretty sober reaction, a pretty sobering reaction from Democrats. And I think that's probably similar to what, you know, what you've heard, too. Yeah, I'd be curious, Craig, just as you because you mentioned you guys had a poll right before the debate. We always eagerly await your next one. But let's let's forget like pre 16, you know, eight and 12. Obviously, Obama won the state comfortably.

2016, Kellyanne's campaign, threads a needle, wins Wisconsin narrowly. Biden wins it narrowly in 20. That Senate race in 22 was super close. From an electorate standpoint in 24, what's different from those races or not? Yeah. I mean, if you go back a little further in time, you've got the two Bush elections, which were also jump ball elections. But

the map uh in 16 and 20 is a lot different than the map in 2000 and 2004. so i think we're living in a in a in the trump era map in wisconsin which again is you know one reason why wisconsin has you know oddly enough persisted as a battleground um despite lots of changes in voting patterns um

is that both parties have kind of lost ground with different parts of the electorate and these losses have tended to offset each other. So obviously you have Democrats, Democratic support collapsing to some degree in small towns and rural counties, and you have Republican support plunging in some of these higher education metropolitan suburbs around Milwaukee and Madison.

I think if you take Biden and Trump out of the equation, I think you could argue that in this current era, the Republican ceiling has become a little bit lower in Wisconsin because of the loss of support in these once super Republican high turnout suburbs.

Also because of the growth of Madison and the suburbs around Madison. And and certainly the big gains in rural Wisconsin, you know, delivered victory to Donald Trump in 2016 and to Ron Johnson and his Senate race. But those were very marginal victories, of course, as was Joe Biden's in 2020. But Democrats have managed to win some elections, obviously.

by more than a fraction in this era. And Republicans have had a little bit more trouble getting over 50%. So I think both Biden and Trump going into this debate had a narrow path to victory, but overall, I think

it's been a little bit more of a struggle for Republicans in the Trump era in statewide elections. So that brings us to the debate. And now we wait and see what the new state of play looks like. Craig, it also brings us to the upcoming convention, which will be held.

in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in your backyard by the Republicans. President Trump will go first, and then four or five weeks later, President Biden will have his in Chicago, Illinois, just a couple miles down the road from you. I ask this because do you think that matters? Do you think it matters to be saturated in that media market? If you can walk us through, our listeners who may not be familiar with the well count, S-W-O-W, do you think that there's still three of the, say, 22, 25 counties who will help decide the next

President of the United States. So just if you can tackle those two unique things in 2024, does it matter where your convention is? And tell us if the wow counties are still as important. Yeah, so I think everybody thinks that conventions, like a lot of things matter on the margins. And of course, Wisconsin is one of those states that could be decided on the margins. So we've had two, the last two elections decided by about 20,000 votes. So I don't think it's too hard to make the case that, you know, a convention, hosting a convention, just like, you know,

all the other things that campaigns do can matter on the margins. In terms of the wow counties, you know,

for decades, these are three counties bordering Milwaukee County that were for decades the most Republican counties in Wisconsin. And even when suburban counties outside of other big northern cities were getting less Republican or getting more Democratic, these counties were getting redder and redder. And not only that, but they were among the highest turnout counties in the country. So they were among the highest performing counties.

Republican counties anywhere. And this trend kind of carried, I would say, through the 2014 election, through the 2012 presidential election, through the 2014 gubernatorial election. I wrote a big series and did a big project for the paper in 2014.

about how polarized the metropolitan Milwaukee area was because the red parts kept getting redder, the blue parts, Milwaukee City and the inner suburbs kept getting bluer, and they kept spinning farther apart. The new reality, what's happened in the last 10 years,

is that the red parts have gotten less red. So you've got some of these counties that used to be 45 point margins for Bush and Walker, George Bush and Scott Walker are now maybe 20 or 15 point margins. And so that has an impact that has actually, you know, offset some of the big gains that Republicans have made in small towns and rural areas.

So the metropolitan area is a different place than it was 15 or 20 years ago. It used to be a metro that Republicans would carry in close elections, in some close elections. And now it leans a little bluer. So you throw that into the mix in terms of having a convention in Milwaukee. And just one more note, I would also add that obviously Republicans have hopes of doing better in the city of Milwaukee, right?

Right. On the other side of the equation than they've done in the past, because we've seen from polling that Donald Trump has made gains with Latino voters and some of the polling shows gains with black voters as well. Our polling doesn't I mean, it's hard for us when we poll because these are small groups in Wisconsin. It's an overwhelmingly white state.

But the margins in the city of Milwaukee are a big, you know, source of anxiety among Democrats in Wisconsin because the turnout isn't always there. And Democrats have been winning the city by 60 points or 58 points. And if they win by 50 points instead of 60 points, that's a big deal for Republicans. Yeah. So, Craig, let's just dig in Milwaukee a little bit more. I mean, I think that turnout wasn't what Hillary Clinton's campaign needed in 16. Part of the reason she lost was.

Certainly part of the reason that Mandela Barnes lost that narrow race turnout. I mean, even in 20 when Biden won it, turnout wasn't as high as I'd like to see, but it was better. So there is that mixture of both turnout and vote share loss. And so what do you think is the level? If there is erosion, let's not even talk about turnout. Let's say on vote share. Let's say turnout is...

What is the level under which if Trump were to get above a certain level, Biden just wouldn't have the ability to make that up in the suburban areas, Madison, et cetera? So so the vote share has actually been kind of going up over time because the composition of the city has changed dramatically.

And also in the I should say in the in the immediate suburbs within Milwaukee County, Democrats have been doing a lot better. But in terms of the city proper, you know,

turnout and total vote is sort of has been the big concern but Democrats need to kind of win the city by you know somewhere between 55 and 60 points right but even then again if the turnout isn't there and again part of the turnout problem has been population loss um in some of these places

But if the turnout isn't there and, you know, again, these numbers are kind of small when you do the math, it could be five or 10,000 votes net that we're talking about.

It's not 50,000 votes net that we're talking about. So you can sort of overstate the impact on statewide elections, but it's real. And so I would say if it's closer to 50 points than 60 points, that's a problem. And if it's, you know, the total vote is down by 10,000 votes, that's a problem in a super close election. Craig, I often talk about what I refer to as conscientious objectors, people who are registered to vote, maybe have voted in the past,

have a propensity to vote, but may just change their minds and say, I don't want to encourage the politicians. I don't really care about Washington. I don't think there's anything in it for me. My vote doesn't count. They don't listen anyway. Do you think that's a problem, Wisconsin? Do you think that people there really understand they are the swingiest of the swing state? They will help decide who the next president is, perhaps balance of the Senate. You have a hot Senate race there. Yep.

One-time politician Tammy Baldwin has been elected in state office or in federal office for over 30 years. And she's got a race on her hands with Eric Hovde. And she's ahead, of course, in the polling. She's an incumbent, as was Ron Johnson in 2020, as was Tony Evers, the governor in 2022. So I think there is, we should talk a little bit about the power of incumbency there. But you have two presidential candidates that folks are familiar with. And I'm just curious, do you think they're

that people are excited to turn out. Well, we see that kind of turnout in Wisconsin that we saw across the country in 2020 at historic levels, or could there be some people shrugging their shoulders and saying, I'm just not going to participate, and that impacts the result. So it's probably less of a, maybe less of a concern in Wisconsin than some other states. It's a very high turnout state, and it's also a state that's kind of used to

you know, being in the trenches and being on the front lines of all these big political battles. So people are used to this. There is an interesting question, though. I mean, our polling has picked up, you know, this decline in enthusiasm. I mean, the question that we ask is, how enthusiastic are you about voting in November? And so enthusiasm overall is down compared to four years ago, but it's down much more among Democrats,

than Republicans. And so the question is, is that how good a barometer of turnout is that? And how worrisome is that for Democrats that Democrats are less enthusiastic about this election? And, you know, that could be explained partly by, you know, if you're a Democratic voter and, you know, you're worried about Joe Biden and you're worried about his age, but you're motivated to vote because you don't want Donald Trump.

you know, you may not answer the polling question. Yes, I'm very enthusiastic about voting because your mood is kind of sour. Whereas if you're a Republican who's really supportive of Donald Trump, you may say, yes, I'm very enthusiastic about voting. In some of these polls, there's been kind of mixed signals. In some polls, Biden has actually done slightly better among self-described certain voters or likely voters than among registered voters. But

the enthusiasm gap is real. And so that's, you know, that is sort of on the radar. And I don't think that's going to change too dramatically. So it's, it's really low compared to past cycles. I would expect a,

a really high turnout. I think you could argue even with the third party candidates on the ballot, I mean, they will bring some voters out as well. I mean, they're not purely just taking votes away from the major party candidates. I mean, there are some people that want to vote for them and don't want to vote, wouldn't turn out for the other two candidates. But it's a big wild card when you have almost 20 percent of the voters who don't like either major party candidate.

Yeah. So, Craig, I mean, I don't want to draw too many conclusions from the debate audience, but the debate audience was pretty low, I think lower than a lot of people thought. And maybe people just didn't want to watch the geriatric cage match. It doesn't mean they're not going to vote. But you had, I believe in 2020, was just shy of 3.3 million votes cast. You know, Biden won the state with 1,630,000 votes cast.

You said you expect high turnout, but is it possible we could go back to 3 million or 3.1? Sure. Yeah, okay. I mean, it's bounced around. I mean, the highest turnout we've ever had in percentage terms as a percent of the eligible electorate was in 2004. And even the Obama election's

Again, measured that way, did not exceed 2004, but they've been really high. And so we've seen some bounce and turnout up and down. The midterms were record setting in 2020, like they were in a lot of places.

But there is, you know, there's a spectrum. There's a scenario. I mean, there's probably a couple hundred thousand vote, a range of a couple hundred thousand votes where you can see differences in turnout. And that, you know, is pretty profound when it comes to if you think this election is a is a pure toss up. You know, turnout is just going to be really pivotal. Craig, one thing I'd love to avoid in the future, but I'm not really sure how to do it, if you can help us is.

ABC News, Washington Post released a poll in late October 2020 showing Joe Biden beating Donald Trump by 17 points in Wisconsin. That's just flat out false. It's a lie. It was never true, nor was it true that Donald Trump was beating Joe Biden by 17 points in Wisconsin. I would call foul on either one. Wisconsin is tight. We all know that.

So how do we avoid this and why in the world would responsible media outlets or individuals repeat what they know is a lie in the polling? I feel polls like that are particularly dangerous because it's said that it's an unbiased source. It's not the Trump campaign. It's not the Biden campaign. It's unbiased.

That's bull. That's baloney. Because a poll like that should never even be released. The pollster should go back and say, there's something screwy with our methodology or the way we collected the data, maybe we over-weighted. In my polling, we are famous for weighting, W-A-I-T-I-N-G, weighting, to fill all the groups naturally, then weighting, W-E-I-G-H-T.

And I think that's why we do fairly well and got the Nate Silver 538 designation as a top Republican pollster in 2022. When others said red wave, we got an A minus instead. I say that because I'm worried.

That these polls are not sometimes there to reflect public opinion, but to create it and sway it. And as somebody who runs a responsible poll, as somebody who looks at, you know, the 45, 46 Marquette polls that we've been able to look at over time. I mean, what would you say to consumers of news? What would you say to ABC News, Washington Post and their pollsters?

So, I mean, it's humbling being in the polling business and you two know, you know, as well as anybody what the challenges are.

Obviously, sometimes you get a bad poll and you kind of know it when you get it. So would you publish it? Would you publish a poll that said Joe Biden or Donald Trump were leading the other by 17 points in Wisconsin? Well, I've never been in that position. I had been in the position before I was affiliated with Marquette of when our newspaper used to sponsor polls years and years and years ago. And you lived in dread of getting an

an outcome that you didn't believe in, but you felt like you were kind of wedded to this poll and you were committed to it. And it's a difficult decision to sort of pull the plug on a poll because you don't think

It's accurate. But one thing I would say, you know, to consumers of polling is that if you have a state, you know, that was a toss up state eight years ago with Donald Trump on the ballot and a toss up state four years ago with the same two candidates running.

on the ballot, you can sort of rely on the fact that it's going to be a really competitive state this time around. And so I don't know, you know, kind of what went into that particular poll. But the last two elections, I think, in global terms tell you as much about what this race is going to look like as any certainly any individual poll. And when the

the current polling and the past year of polling tell you the same thing that the last two elections tell you, then you can feel pretty confident that that's what you're looking at, which is the situation we're in in Wisconsin. Well, Kelly, and I share your frustration. We've talked about it. I don't, in my view, it's not necessarily because like the ABC, Washington Post folks wanted to set the agenda. For me, it's just a common sense thing, which you just got to eat that poll. Like don't publish it. Like it's not

I don't know if it's a lie, but it's like a bad poll. I'm curious. So, Craig, obviously, the Marquette poll in Park is your involvement, but its track record is very well respected by all of us who want to know what's going on in Wisconsin.

What do you look at? Are there other news organizations that you think have a decent track record in Wisconsin? I ask this because there's so much garbage out there. Some of them are Democratic garbage, Republican news, and we're all supposed to pay attention to polling averages, but even that can get screwed up by bad polls. So like what what are the polls that you think, you know, you're obviously top of the class, but are there other ones that you respect and you pay attention to?

Yeah, I mean, one other thing to plug, I would, I mean, about the Marquette poll, which is conducted by Charles Franklin, who's an excellent pollster and does a really good job. And the thing that I'm most proud of and that he deserves the credit for with respect to the Marquette poll, aside from the fact that it's got a good track record, is transparency. I mean, and this is something I'd like to see a lot more pollsters do, but...

I think in those 538 ratings, it was rated the most transparent poll in America because not only is there total transparency about the methodology and you know, that's gotten very complicated, but you can go to the website, you can run your own crosstabs, you know, all the data is there for people to see and dive into and play around with. And, you know, for too many polls, you don't know what the secret sauce is.

And obviously, polling is not as simple and straightforward. Maybe never was, but certainly a lot more goes into trying to figure out if you've captured the electorate accurately or not. And that's a challenge. But I would say transparency goes a long way, I think, toward credibility. So I don't know if I answered your question, but I think one I think the New York Times polls in Wisconsin have been pretty good. I mean, they've been I think we've been sort of in sync with them pretty much.

But Wisconsin is a state that gets polled a lot for obvious reasons. And so that pulls in a lot of kind of random polls as well. And as Kellyanne noted, not just in 2020, but over the years, you know, you've seen these double digit polling results. It happened in 2004 when, you know, when people actually responded to polls at a higher rate. You've got some crazy numbers, you know, in the weeks leading up to the election on both sides.

There's a lot of talk about the attrition, if not the erosion, away from Joe Biden among core Democratic constituencies in other swing states. Let's just focus on Wisconsin for the moment. I think it's a fascinating microcosm. It is 80% white only, as you say. It was always seen as a more religious state where people attended religious services more frequently than in some of the other so-called swing states. It's known as a, quote, Catholic state. But of course, like everywhere else,

Craig, that's changing. And I'm curious if you think the divides this time in the electorate are by gender or region, geography, are they by religiosity? And that's one question I have, or college, non-college, frankly. But the other question I have is, what is the practical implication there among the Hispanic voters, even if it's a small group?

In Wisconsin, I ask it because I think people think it's an issue about the border and the economy and public safety and defunding the police and whatnot. I wonder, though, do you detect at all in your polling or anecdotally if it has anything to do with the fact that many Hispanics see the Democratic Party increasingly hostile to religion, not really respecting the fact that people want to worship openly, somehow

The separation of church and state, it was originally to protect the church from the state, not the other way around. But I'm curious what you think in your own state, what's happening there?

I mean, it's really hard for me to answer the question with respect to Hispanic voters because they are such a small percentage of the electorate in Wisconsin. It's under 10%. We are seeing, again, we are seeing a trend with Hispanic voters like other polling has picked up where Donald Trump is doing better than he was doing before. And Joe Biden is doing worse than he was doing before in terms of his popularity with Hispanic voters.

And we also saw, you know, if you drill down into the precinct returns in the city of Milwaukee and looked at the neighborhoods with the highest percentage of Hispanic voters, you would have seen a drop off there as well. But I don't know. We don't have enough data, again, given the size of that population to really know everything that's behind that. You asked about, you know, some of the makeup of the electorate and some of these fault lines in the electorate in Wisconsin, which is, you know, 85 percent white. It's also white.

you know, majority white non-college, unlike other battlegrounds. And so that's a big deal. And so the thing about Wisconsin that people should keep in mind is that it's really white. It's pretty blue collar, but white blue collar voters are not as Republican as they are in some other states. And if, because if they were, Wisconsin wouldn't be a battleground.

But when you look at some of the fault lines in the electorate, I think, you know, I think arguably they're getting bigger with respect to the education divide. I think they're getting bigger with respect to the divide, for example, between secular voters and certainly, you know, evangelical voters. But they're not getting bigger with every, you know, demographic. I mean, I think the gender gap kind of is up. It bounces all around. But I don't know. There's a lot of evidence that the gender gap is getting bigger.

bigger right now in Wisconsin. And certainly when you're looking at the difference between, you know, white voters and if you lumped all non-white voters together, that gap would be probably getting a little smaller. And one other area where it's gotten bigger, I would say, would be the urban-rural divide, which is no surprise to you. But

I went back and looked at all, added up the votes in all the towns in Wisconsin. There's more than 1,200 of them and added up the votes in all the cities in Wisconsin, which are in some cases suburbs, in some cases cities. And the gap has been growing for 30 years between the city vote and the town vote for a lot of different reasons. I don't think it's one thing. So it's going to be really interesting when the dust settles in Wisconsin to see which of these fault lines have gotten deeper and which haven't.

I'm curious, Craig. I know when I used to run campaigns, I certainly spent maybe too much time thinking through, okay, our data is showing us the race is here. What could we be missing? Because obviously if your data is off, whether that's large scale data models or it's polling –

As you look at this, and I think this could be both unique to Wisconsin and perhaps, you know, also true in other states. Is there anything you think could be off? Like, could it be that Donald Trump's support with Hispanic and black voters ultimately won't be as high as it is? Could it be that Joe Biden's support with senior voters is not as strong as polls suggest? I'm just curious, like, as you look at it, what questions do you have? And maybe, maybe none of it is. Maybe the polling is absolutely capturing where the race is in different voter cohorts. But

Is there anything where you kind of have a question like this could be either underestimating or overestimating the candidate support in one group or another? So, I mean, obviously, this this isn't what you're asking about. But obviously, turnout is one area where you don't know whether you're getting that right or not. But you're asking about always the great mystery, like the Fox News poll. Then it was a national poll, but it had Biden up with rural voters. OK, yeah. And and all these polls, you know, in an individual poll, when you have obviously, you know, if it

if you have a sub-sample of like under 30 voters of 100 people or 50 people. It's trash. Yeah, right. You can't pay too much attention to that. So the youth vote is one area where

You wonder because there's a history there. But obviously, you know, Joe Biden's numbers with young voters are not very good. Donald Trump's numbers with young voters are not particularly good either. So and then you've got these third party candidates. Again, we haven't talked too much about them, but that's that's obviously a whole nother area of uncertainty in what we're trying to measure, because, you

You know, who were they, quote, taking votes away from? What are they going to end up with on, you know, by the time the election rolls around in terms of a vote share? And what's the impact on the race? So that's all, you know, those things are all in the mix as well. And, you know, we're all sobered by 2016. You know, it's like the, you know, the what happened was a big surprise. Some of the turnout numbers were a big surprise. Obviously, there were a lot of polling misses there.

then. And, you know, what I was talking about before with these mixed signals about turnout and about sporadic voters, we've seen Donald Trump have some real success turning out sporadic voters. And is that going to continue to happen? And again, how motivated are Democrats going to be? We've seen in these recent cycles, you know, the midterms, really good Democratic turnout. Is that going to is that falling off because of attitudes about Biden? So, yeah, you worry about all of that stuff.

But you worry about it. You know, I don't think, again, depending on what the fallout is from this debate and depending on what happens in the remaining weeks of the campaign, you would say you would feel pretty confident it's going to be a very close election. But you can also imagine a long list of things that could tip it one way or the other. I think that's that's an excellent point.

Both can be true at the same time. That's why we have two lobes of the political brain, Craig and David. Craig, I wanted to just bring everybody back to 2016. I was on TV daily talking about our strategy and we were pulling out of Nevada and New Hampshire and trying to make more campaign stops and more of a media buy, particularly social media buy, because we didn't have a lot of money in Wisconsin, in Michigan, in Pennsylvania.

And we were very forward facing about why we were doing that, that the messages that seem to work in Iowa and Ohio, for example, two states that President Obama won twice, where Hillary wasn't really at 50 percent and growing, but had elected Republican senators and governors statewide during the years. We thought that that could bear some fruit. So when we're going into Wisconsin, one thing we noticed was Hillary was not going there.

And we look at our public schedule and I think it did make a difference. The Marquette poll had us down 24 points. I remember former governor Tommy Thompson saying, Kellyanne, if the polling changes, I'll let you know, but maybe it's not a great idea for Mr. Trump to be coming here. This was in the summer. And then he did call it some point. He's like, you know, things are really tightening. You're still way behind, but there's a movement.

I say this because I'm convinced it had a lot to do with the Trump message, forgotten man, forgotten woman. Trade deals would be renegotiated. Non-college educated households would have prosperity and opportunity too. But I can't help but always think eight years later it had to do with the other candidate basically ignoring the state and just not going there and having a footprint in the state.

Do you agree with that? Do you think that's overstated? Do you think that it matters? No, 100 percent. 100 percent. And when you go back, you know, people often want to focus on, you know, one side of the of the choice. But you've got to always consider what's happening, what the losing candidate is doing and the nature of the losing candidate. Just like in 2012, when you look at how much better Obama did in some of these, you know, more rural areas than Hillary

Hillary Clinton did in 2016, but he was running against Mitt Romney, who was obviously a less effective messenger to those voters than Donald Trump.

And then if you compare, you know, Hillary Clinton's campaign schedule in Wisconsin to what Al Gore and John Kerry did in 2000 and 2004, they not only, you know, blanketed the state, but the amount of time they spent in small towns, the amount of time they spent in northern and western Wisconsin. I think this has paid off in Tammy Baldwin's campaigns because she has tendering.

tended to outperform other Democrats in these rural parts of Wisconsin because she's, you know, I think she's worked at it and she spent time there. And so how can it not matter when, you know, the difference between driving a bus and crisscrossing, you know, the lacrosse media market is

And the Wausau media market and then just not coming at all. How can that not matter? Right. So in 16, you know, we just talked about Trump went all in. Hillary did not. Part of the reasons that Trump won, not just Wisconsin, the presidency, other reasons, too. But there was also the third party vote, which I think was about five point two percent.

one of the higher in terms of battleground states. And, you know, as you look at both the data, but just also your own storied history of Wisconsin, do you think we should plan for two or 3%, 5% like 16? Could it be higher? And what's your assessment of what that does to the race? Because to me, that's a huge wild card because I still think Donald Trump, and you mentioned this, it's not just Trump. Republicans generally in Wisconsin have a slightly lower ceiling.

So much more likely for them to win a race at 48 than at 50. So how do you assess the third party vote? And we'll probably learn a lot more about whether Kennedy's gained ground after the debate or not. But just what's your general sense or how should we think about what the win number is going to be in Wisconsin for the one that wins it?

Yeah, I mean, the win number, you know, was around 47 in 2016 and around 48 or 49 in 2020. So there's different things at work. I mean, you know, pushing up that third party vote is the obvious fact of this. You know, the people that are dissatisfied with both candidates, that 17 or 18 percent right now that says they don't they have an unfavorable view of both major party candidates.

What works in the other direction in Wisconsin and Wisconsin, you know, if you go back in time, like during the Clinton elections, it had a higher than average, you know, third party vote. The parole vote was bigger than average, bigger than it was nationally. But I think as Wisconsin, you know, as sort of the the battleground effects of being, you know, everybody, all the voters internalizing the fact that Wisconsin, you know,

either knowing that it was the tipping point state in the last two elections or just knowing that it's a huge decider, a potential decider in the election, I think that pushes some voters further.

you know, away from the third party candidates, because then the Democrats and Republicans are making the argument to those voters that, you know, it's a wasted vote. And and so I think that has tended to depress the third party vote in the last couple of cycles in Wisconsin compared to what it might be. But you have to think it's going to be bigger than that last time, just because of you didn't have the situation last time where

18% of the electorate had a negative view of both candidates. That number was lower. It was there in 2016. It was even bigger in 2016, right? Because Donald Trump had higher negatives in his own party. So the so-called double hater pool of voters was more than 20. It wasn't under 20. It was more than 20. So yeah. Craig, isn't it the case, I believe, that President Trump won

double haters over Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin by close to 40 points. He won them by a lot. And not only did they were late breaking. And again, this was, you know, I think. Again, you have to show up late in the game. It's really important. I mean, I'm saying that as a reflection on 2016 so much. It's like, I don't think that's ever going to change. Right. As we all know as practitioners. That was an ingredient in the polling era, right? Because people were, according, if you believe the exit polls, these were late deciders and late deciders went for Trump and the

the double haters or double skeptics or whatever we call them, went for him by, I think, at least 20 or 30 points. I don't know if it was 40, but it was decisive. So that was a big deal. The polling this time around has been more ambiguous about those people and it bounces around a little, but it hasn't been one candidate dominating that group of voters poll after poll.

So far. Right. Well, Craig Gilbert, thank you for your time. I could listen to you talk about Wisconsin all day long, every day. And we're so lucky that you're there in a state that once again is probably going to be the most important tipping point state. So we'd love to have you back as we get closer to the election. Absolutely. It's been a lot of fun and happy to do it anytime. Thank you. Thank you, Craig. Everybody keep following him, listening to him, reading him. And I know we'll be back in touch. Thanks. Thanks.

Well, a momentous week in American political history. And I thought that Kelly and great guests, good discussions with Jason Miller from the Trump campaign, getting a sense of their take on the debate and what's next for them and making clear that they are going to

debate again on September 10th that Joe Biden does, and really great also diving into Wisconsin with Craig Gilbert, who knows the state as well as anybody alive today. So for myself, David Plouffe. And for me, Kellyanne Conway. Remember, it's easy to be enraged. It's essential to be engaged. Have a great week, everyone. Happy Independence Day, America. Yeah, everybody have a great July 4th.

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