The Trump Verdict and Dangerous Polls 01:13:11

Hi, I'm David Plouffe. And I'm Kellyanne Conway. And you're listening to the Campaign Managers Podcast. Right here on Podcast One.

Welcome to the Campaign Managers Podcast with me, David Plouffe. And me, Kellyanne Conway. Well, Kellyanne, a light discussion to talk about today. I think we should start with you since you managed the campaign of the person who was in the courtroom yesterday. And I'm going to preface this by, and you know, you may have different views on this, but as we jump into discussion about what this verdict may mean or not mean with different people is that

I think we should all be a little bit humble about this and have a lot of more questions and answers because it's unprecedented. And the voters will ultimately tell us that they always do what they think. But, you know, what are kind of your first impressions of where we stand? And obviously, there's a lot of people breaking this down from a legal standpoint. What's the appeal going to look like? What's the sentencing look like? You and I, as former campaigner managers, probably think first and foremost in terms of the electorate and the battle for 270. But throw it over to you.

Well, thank you, David. Obviously, unprecedented times, but how many instances have you and I said that over the course of our careers? This is America. It's a fairly young country, a burgeoning democracy. We should all want to protect that and prosper and progress that. At the same time, voters have a way of either repeating history or making history. And we'll see that again probably this fall. My initial impressions are both personal and professional. I'm a fully recovered attorney.

I didn't really care for practicing law. I'll leave it to other people, but I do have a lawyer's mind, education, admitted to practice in four jurisdictions, having passed the bar in each state four times on the first try. So I will put my lawyer head on a little bit. What can I put

my campaign manager had on from 2016, David Plouffe, and tell you and remind everybody that there is a big reason why I wasn't called to testify on behalf of the prosecution in this so-called hush money case in New York. And that's because

I would have blown up the entire premise that this was part of the campaign strategy. There in no way, shape or form did I ever think that any of these women who Donald Trump referred to as false accusers, did I ever think that they were going to derail our campaign? Why? We had overcome Access Hollywood, which broke on October 7th. And that was a very tough campaign.

tough road to hoe, as you can imagine. And the idea that you would have told me in some form or fashion that we had an extra $130,000 laying around, obviously,

I, as the campaign manager with a great deal of authority, latitude and freedom to make decisions, would never have authorized a penny of that, not a dime going to some woman, let alone a porn person. It would have gone to more ads in Michigan and Wisconsin. So the idea that we're relying upon people who had never been porn.

on any kind of political campaign, didn't have that experience, weren't being asked to execute those skills at all. David Pecker, Michael Cohen, even Donald J. Trump had never been on a political campaign before. The idea that in some Trump Tower meeting a year and a half before election day, this was the strategy that was going to defeat Hillary Clinton

who was starting out with 264 electoral votes, a true blue wall that I felt was real and compelled me to change up the strategy from what other Republican campaigns had done. They ignored Michigan. They ignored Wisconsin. They gave up on Pennsylvania. They picked running mates like Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan and Jack Kemp, who had excited the base because the nominees at the top of the ticket had deflated the base. This was totally different for us. It was an electoral strategy that

pushed aside electability, you can't win, she can't lose, and focused on electoral college, because that's how you do or don't win. And the idea, and I just have to say this, the idea that anybody thought it was brilliant that we would win or lose an election against a very formidable opponent that would be first female president of the United States, Hillary Clinton, while a majority of the voters were female.

The idea that it was going to come out to where you were emptying your grocery cart at the end of an aisle through a tabloid is foolishness. So do I think this will change months? That remains to be seen. But what it won't change is that it's not going to change the fact that Joe Biden is every minute of 81. He has a running mate in Kamala Harris who will not be seen as up to the task against whatever vice presidential running mate is.

President Trump chooses. His economic policies has destroyed the American dream for many Americans, particularly younger ones who don't know when they're going to get out of debt, when they're going to be able to afford their first home. He's unleashed millions of illegal immigrants into our country. That includes some people on the terrorist watch list, thousands and thousands of Chinese nationals at a time when we're staring at China as a major threat to our nation, economic and security-wise.

And he's made us just less safe here and throughout the world based on his very weak leadership. None of that will change. I think the independents that the Marist poll showed very recently have the highest level of support for Donald Trump in the history of the Marist PBS NewsHour poll.

That may continue because independents, by their very design, don't trust Washington. They don't like career politicians. They don't think that the system works for them. They feel like outsiders to the system. So that'll probably help Donald Trump. Well, you clearly didn't think it was a threat. But as you said, other people did. Pecker, Cohen, Donald J. Trump, most importantly, the candidate. Trump never thought that.

Well, but he is. I don't pay for stories. I don't pay for stories. I don't pay for stories. Well, he did. And so now he's a convicted felon. And I would say this about obviously you've got a laundry list of attacks on Joe Biden. You believe them to be true. I don't believe them to be true.

But at the end of the day, the reason that this is a competitive race, because we do have a challenging economy, is Donald J. Trump. He failed to get 47 percent of the vote twice. Now, the race you led in 16, you found a narrow path in a few states to elect him. It was actually, you know, a remarkable fealty to the Electoral College.

In 20, obviously, once again, failed to get over 47 nationally, didn't do what he needed to do in the States, and I think was an overhang for the party in 18 or 22. So he's not has a history. He does not have a history as a great vote getter. And I think because Donald Trump- You should be thrilled he's the nominee. I am thrilled he's the nominee. Why are Democrats so scared then, David? Why are they- Well, because it's a close race. People like you are outwardly saying, please change your strategy. Well, the point is Donald Trump is-

The ideal candidate, as he was in 20, for us to run against. And I think about this. And again, I want to preface this very carefully with I'm not sure what's going to happen with like, for instance, will this dry vote or not? We don't know.

If it does increase intensity with Trump's base, then we should start to see him running ads soon and placing staff in the states. I heard Steve Bannon amongst all people last night ranting about this, that unlike your campaign in 16, you know, they're just not focused enough on the states. And I think that's probably due to resources.

But when I look at the electorate, it is one. Will this help him with those undecided voters, you know, who might have voted against him in 20, who are thinking about, you know, switching back to Trump, thinking about third party? I don't think that this is going to be a reason for a suburban college educated woman or, you know, even men in some of these swing suburban areas in these battleground states to go back to Trump. So I think that's the place where it's the biggest problem for him. I think it's another reason

piece of evidence that they should not go back to him or vote for him. The thing I have the biggest question about is his lead in the polls. And I don't want to overstate that because there's some polls that show Biden leading. But I think on balance, Trump has a small advantage right now in the battleground states, just as we had in 2012. Like it matters. OK, he's got it.

But it's largely built on overperformance with younger voters and voters of color, many of them first time voters, many of them aren't reliable voters. And so the question I have there is Trump is obviously starting today in his speech post. The verdict is going to say, hey, the system's rigged.

It's rigged for you as well, the electorate, et cetera. There could be some appeal there. I know Democrats won't like me saying that. That's the thing you have to watch. So I think he's going to pay a price with some swing voters as we traditionally think about them. It's clearly going to energize his base.

We'll know to what extent based on money, I think, and deployment of resources. And then I think this really this new swing voter and we have, I think, have to think about them that way. The Biden campaign certainly has to think about younger voters of color as swing voters.

not as turnout targets. That's where I'm not sure. I think some of the reaction in the aftermath of the verdict was that this was going to hurt him across the board. And I always think in terms of slivers the electorate, right? That's the way you have to think. I think that's the way you think. And that to me is the biggest question. Sure. So let's talk about some of the facts that happened almost immediately after the verdict.

Thirty four point eight million dollars raised, breaking a record, basically doubling a one day record, let alone just a few hours record for fundraising at Donald J. Trump dot com and at Win Red. Can I ask you a question, Kellyanne? If that if that's true, I assume we'll start to see ads in all battleground states as soon as next week, right?

If he needs to, he's not Joe Biden trying to convince people that what they see is not real, that they see, they see rising gas and grocery prices. They see energy dependence. They see two new wars in Ukraine in the middle East. They see a border that's completely open. We have no national security, national sovereignty. It's not fair. That's why it's risen to the number one and number two issue and all these swing States and nationally, David, because all of a sudden it's in people's backyards. But if I may fact 34.8 million dollars,

in a single day is remarkable. When you had three presidents, Clinton, Obama, and Biden at Radio City Music Hall a month or two ago raising money, what was it, 25 million or so? They said, oh, it broke a record and then Trump broke it the very next weekend. But what was he doing while they were there in the heart of New York City, always against Donald Trump, including its court system? He was out in Massapequa on Long Island honoring that fallen police officer who was killed by

gunned down because your party wants to defund the police. This guy had dozens of priors. He shouldn't have been in a position out free like you and me.

on other law abiding citizens to have an opportunity to kill. You know, listening to you, it's listening to you. It's imagine it's a miracle. Donald Trump's not winning by like 80 percent. No, no, no, you're not. You're not. You're not letting me finish. You just want to interrupt because it's a hard conversation to have. If Donald Trump is that bad and Joe Biden's economy is that great, then why isn't he winning? And by the way, David, I think that you've proven a point here this morning in all your brilliance that

You're showing what the strategy is for the Biden campaign, and I can't believe that you think it's a good one, and it's this. Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, 360 degrees. Trump, 24-7, 366 as being a leap year. You don't have something good to say about the Biden presidency. You're not going to win. Joe Biden's got a lot to say. He's saying it. I think everything should be done in the presidential conference. And I know I'm going to hear the CHIPS Act. What else? Joe Manchin's now an independent. CHIPS Act.

Chipsack matters. No, Manchin's not independent. One of the most prominent Democrats. Infrastructure. Coming back from the pandemic that your president mishandled in kind of an epic way. Is that true? Operation Warp Speed saved millions of lives. I hope you got the vaccine. Yeah, millions, millions, millions died. Okay. He's a selfish person. Because of him? Because China unleashed it on the world? I think at the end of the day, this is what I think will make a difference with voters.

because I've seen research, as I'm sure you have, the argument that he is a selfish person who's going to be focused on vindictive revenge, and he's not going to be focused on lowering prices, health care, even foreign policy, where he largely wants to run away from our allies and embrace dictators. That's wishful thinking. This is even more going to be the case, that he's going to be on a revenge tour. He's not going to be focused on the American people. What revenge tour? Revenge was in the court.

room. You know that. That guy should have accused himself. He should have testified. He's such a unbelievable person. Why would he testify? Why would a defendant testify? He's saying on True Social, you know, he didn't get to make his case. So he hides, number one. And number two, this is someone... Donald Trump hides. You can't get enough of him. He's everywhere all the time. The argument, Kellyanne, that this person will come in and not focus on

first and foremost the economy the american people who focus on himself he's talked about wanting to have he used to criticize bill barr because he wants a department of justice that does what he wants it to do an irs to do what he wants it to do even a defense department that wants to do what he wants to do he admires german generals okay keep us out of wars he said that to the chairman of joint chiefs of staff look how the generals in germany you know applauded hitler you're

This is what he wants. No, because it's going to be done through a contrast frame. But Trump is a deeply unpopular, shitty vote getter. That's his history. He won the presidency once in a black swan event because you did a great job running that campaign. But other than that, there's a lot of weight in that wagon that holds him back. And I think this will add to it with certain voters. With other voters, I think, you know, that is the question for me.

Because his lead right now is narrow, but it is based on this overperformance again with younger voters of color and maybe some people in their 30s and 40s of color. By the way, that is I don't know how much of that is Republican versus Trump. My my belief is it's probably more a personal relation with Trump because you see Biden is underperforming these Senate candidates in some cases by eight or 10 points. That's the other thing I'd say.

Is that is the most important thing for Biden to do is there are Democratic voters out there, independent voters out there who are choosing other Democrats, but not Biden. So that is a problem for him, of course, Kelly. And right. But you and I having run races, we want to have democracy.

clear targets like those people are attainable. Whether he attains them or not, I think will tell the question of who the next president is. But something like this, I think, has the potential to get some of those voters back. But it'll be fascinating for me to see

In the Trump campaign and the Biden campaign, you know, what I always try and do is parse when someone's saying something in a speech or an interview or an ad, who are they trying to reach? Like, what's the strategy? And my suspicion is we're going to see Trump probably over index on trying to reach some of these younger voters of color that he's overperforming well, which from a political standpoint, I think would be smart.

Yes. Well, it's definitely true. And they are well aware of two tiers, system of justice and feeling like they're outsiders to the system, that the system either doesn't work for them or worse works against them. If you're talking about vengeance and revenge, it's very clear that was on display in this New York courtroom. You mentioned Bill Barr, the former attorney general. He's featured prominently in a new ad put out by a Trump super PAC. I think it's called MAGA Inc.,

on the day of the verdict, probably four or five hours before the verdict, Bill Barr is quoted twice in there criticizing Alvin Bragg in this case as the former chief law enforcement officer of our nation. He has said, and by the way, he also said he's going to vote for Donald Trump. So take it to the bank, everyone. Follow suit. Everyone else who lives in Virginia, please. But he has said this was a sham. This is an ill-conceived abuse of power. And David, I just want to know as somebody,

who helped to elect a historic president, a historic election in Barack Obama in 2008 and helped him again in 2012 get reelected. I just want to know, are you comfortable with the approach toward Donald Trump? And let me explain what it is. Are you comfortable that you tried to kick him off the ballot in Colorado and Maine, that we're spending millions

millions and millions of dollars in taxpayer money in Manhattan, in the Mueller investigation, in the Mueller hearings after that, that we are trying to insult and investigate and impeach and indict and now convict the same person at all times. Why do you have such little faith in we, the little people, that we can suss out who the better candidate is?

Why can't we, why isn't it left to us to decide Trump versus Biden? Because I'll take that fair fight, that binary choice any day. It sounds like your party doesn't want to do that. They want to tell the people you're stupid, you're low information, you're ignorant, you don't have a college degree. We know better than you. We're going to supplant our opinions for your own. Why is that?

Why not just trust the people? One person, one vote in our democracy. No surprise I find all that outrageous. So first of all, the notion that this is some grand strategy. Here's what I'd say. Donald Trump, if he doesn't want to be in a courtroom and convicted on 34 counts and doesn't want to have three other cases, he shouldn't have led and fomented an insurrection.

He shouldn't have falsified business record. He shouldn't have false. He shouldn't have defamed someone that he was credibly, credibly accused of committing sexual assault. These things all happen. This is all his behavior. Why isn't Biden winning? Why isn't he winning Mississippi and Alabama?

let alone Nevada, which they may give up on Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin. You know better than that. We live in a divided country. We've had inflation. That's very high. Like this is going to be a tough race. But when, but when I listen to you talk about what a terrible president Joe Biden has been, and I disagree with pretty much all of it, Trump should be winning by 40 points. Okay. He's not because he's Donald J. Trump. People don't like the personal behavior. There is no, some grand democratic strategy, uh,

The Justice Department is working the way it should. By the way, if Donald Trump gets elected president, he is going to put somebody in there that will do his wishes. You don't know that. And that's not true. He has lots of people disagree. He's so desirous. I mean, I think you know. Yeah, well, I don't know. So that would be terrible for the country. Let's talk about facts. True or false. Alvin Bragg and Letitia James did or did not.

actively campaigned for political office on quote, getting Trump, get Trump. That was the thing, not get to the bottom of this, get justice, get Trump. People know that they see that, you know what the polls say. Most people saw this as politically motivated, not legally grounded.

We'll see. I think people are going to learn a lot about this. And I think one thing that has to happen is content creators on TikTok, on Instagram, on YouTube. I think because the trial was not televised, there's a lot of people out in America who just the question was, should he be convicted or not? So I think if you inform them that he in 2016, despite your belief that it was not necessary, he is the candidate. His lawyer, David Pecker from the National Enquirer, decided to pay off a porn star he was having an affair with.

to falsify business records. By the way, I think there's been 39 or 40 other business record cases brought by bag's office. So this is not unique to Donald Trump. Uh, he's been convicted of 34 felonies. So I think, I think, I think at the end of the day, there's going to be some more content out there that explains to people exactly what happened here. And should Donald Trump be treated differently than other people? You're,

Your assessment is he's being victimized. That's kind of the role he likes to play, which is interesting for a tough guy. Many people believe that. He's got the thinnest skin of any tough guy I've ever seen in the history of the world. But at the end of the day, he does. There's no one tougher, no one more resilient. Oh, come on. David, wait a second. He complains about everything. Everybody, like a Fox News commentator says something he doesn't like, he comments about it. It's unbelievable. Are you comfortable with the fact that...

Are you just yesterday? Now, are you comfortable with the fact that the judge in this case was a Biden donor? That is Jordan makes millions of dollars doing what you do, which is being a smart strategic member on the left of the democratic party. Who's helping to elect other candidates. I mean, they're free to do that. It's a free country.

But I think given how politically charged this is and how Donald Trump was already the nominee for the presidential contest against Joe Biden, the incumbent, that he should have recused himself. It's not fair that the election law expert was excluded. It's not fair that certain pieces of evidence were not allowed to go in. I think as many nonpartisan legal experts have noted, including Alan Dershowitz, who says he votes Democrat.

they've all said the same thing, which is this is just rife for appeal. There are just so many issues. And we'll see, but, but look, I, again, I just want to know, I'm not comfortable that people who are running for district attorney who are backed by George Soros and his billions are saying, Oh,

I am running, elect me in this crowded primary because I'm going to quote, get Donald Trump. They're on video and audio saying that. It makes people feel like there are cinder blocks on the scales of justice. It makes them feel that justice is not blind. And people are welcome to feel that way. Now you're trying to bring in January 6th and everything else. The first,

The problem is January 6th and everything else is like an insurrection. It matters in American history. It was led by Donald Trump. You need to move on to that because you're a little worried Donald Trump's no longer going to be in the courthouse, which was the equivalent of his Biden's basement. Now he's unleashed. He's going to be back on the campaign trail. Which I think will be helpful. The more of Donald Trump, the better for Joe Biden. It sounds like you think that. But the more of Donald Trump, the more 100,000 people show up at my beloved Jersey Shore.

I think he should go to Delaware next. I think it was like 4,000. I think he should go to Delaware next. Joe Biden spends most of his time, a lot of his time on vacation. I think Donald Trump should go right to Delaware next. But that speaks to his psychosis, which goes back to the inauguration. No, the crowd size, like you just have drone footage. It was like 4,000 people.

You know, why say 100,000 people? It's not true. And secondly, rallies don't vote. You know, at the end of the day, this election is going to be decided. I think you and I both agree with this. Well, they don't. I heard a lot of that in 2016. The media would say, Kellyann, I see all the people there, but will they vote? No, they stood in the rain or the blaring sun. Two different things. But they're not going to vote. They're going to forget about it.

People who show up at rallies are going to vote. They tend to be partisans. At the end of the day, this election is going to be decided by people who have unfavorable views of both candidates. On that, we agree because 12 people who show up for Biden, wherever he appears, the 12 people, the hundreds that show up for him and Kamala Harris at a, quote,

Black voter initiative in Philadelphia. You and I have run presidential campaigns. We're smarter than this. Yeah, but yours was, you know, ours was about three word phrases, build the wall, cut your taxes, repeal common core, et cetera. Yours was hope and change. Yes, we can. Where's the positive affirmative message from Joe Biden? It's all Trump, Trump. What are you going to do in energy? Trump. How about inflation? Trump, Ukraine, Trump, Middle East, Trump, border, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. Oh, come on. I mean, your campaign in 16, even though it was an open seat race,

You treated Clinton as the incumbent figure, which was smart to do. So she treated herself that way. As you well know. She was too much Hillary and not enough Clinton. Most of our campaigns these days, most of our campaigns these days are contrast. This one will be as well. Obviously, when Trump gives a speech, it's not about what he's going to do in his second term. For the most part, it's he maligns Biden. Well,

get back our energy independence. Most of it's anti-Biden. Listen, at the end of the day, we're smarter than this. There's going to be contrast. Donald Trump's going to say, here's what Joe Biden's done wrong. Here's what I would do differently. Joe Biden's going to do the same thing. Some of that's issues. Some of that's character. Some of that's painting a picture of who's actually going to be focused on solving problems for people. I think that's a place where Biden can make some hay. But listen, at the end of the day,

This race will be decided by people who are not thrilled by their choice. I think you and I both agree on that. I think that's true, but they could also, they may also choose the couch. They may also stay home. Well, they may choose the couch. They may choose RFK. Right. So let's try and get back to what we do uniquely because, you know, you and I can argue like everybody else on cable TV. That to me is the most important question in this. And by the way, whether it's

This trial and his conviction, now that he's a convicted felon, how they think about his VP pick, how they view Joe Biden's convention, Donald Trump's convention, the first debate, second debate is those voters who are like, I kind of disapprove of both. I'm not sure if I'm going to vote. I'm RFK curious. That to me is the most important question.

And those, as you know, are hard people to reach with information. They're even hard people to poll. I mean, you probably are able to find them as other pollsters are, but it takes more work. Like that's what I'm going to be watching. Right. Because I think the predictable partisan reaction to anything is, you know, put your blue hat on, put your red hat on.

presidential elections are not decided by people with blue or red hats on. And David, let me ask you a couple of questions based on the recent polls, if I may. I mean, the independent number in Marist, it's a 21 point swing from where they had Biden among independents. They had him winning. Marist has Trump plus 12%.

among independents right now. And then Pew had, Marist and Pew together had Biden winning them by nine points. It's a 21 point swing. And I think independents, we should make clear, I hope you agree, or you can interrupt and disagree. Independents by the very design, they're a little suspicious of our institution, certainly of the federal government, the way Washington works. They don't like career politicians, et cetera. They're not moderates. Moderates and independents are different. There can be some overlap, but I sometimes hear them

said interchangeably by people who don't share our craft. Moderates are much more aligned, say, with abortion as an important issue, a little bit more middle of the road ideologically. Independents, by their very nature, refuse to pledge allegiance to either party, and they are declaring their independence. And they're really searching around. I think between the independents, and I've seen you in other venues recently talk about how

Biden needs to do a little bit better among the white vote. I got to ask, how in the world did Joe Biden, who was vice president to our first African-American president, has a black woman as his vice president? How in the world did this guy screw up so badly among the black and Hispanic vote that now even smart people like you are saying he needs to do better among the white vote in places like Wisconsin?

Well, well, you and I talked about this. I think Wisconsin is the best example of actually his strength right now electorally is the white vote. Right. So, you know, I think that may be surprising to people. Well, but listen, but, you know, we still most states are more nationally, what, about 68, 69 percent.

of the vote is still white. So if you're doing well there, at least comparatively, that is important. Wisconsin is close to 80%. Yeah, so 80%. So he's got strength with seniors over 65. He's got strength with college-educated voters, actually still doing well enough, I think, with non-college voters.

in some of the exorbitant and blue collar and rural areas. So I think at the end of the day, you know, if you're Biden, you want to maintain that support amongst the white community and grow it. There's no doubt that there's a threat. Now, I don't think that in other research I've seen, I'm not sure that those Marist numbers are right, but Biden clearly

has to narrow that gap with independent voters. I mean, listen, we should be, you know, I think it's important to be real about race. Donald Trump has opportunities and challenges. So does Joe Biden. So to win this election, Joe Biden has to basically keep what he has right now, maybe at a point amongst white voters, because some of those are still undecided. Obviously, he can't lose the Hispanic vote. He can't win the youth vote by nine points. Like these are just mathematical facts.

So the good news is, you know, the problems are clearly identified. The bad news is, you know, you've got some areas where you're in the red. There's no question about that. If you're the Trump campaign, you're probably concerned about Biden's numbers with white voters. You'd like to see those erode a little bit. And the question is, how can you cement your gains with these other parts of the electorate?

I mean, to me, if you take off my Democratic hat, your Republican hat, hopefully you'd agree. Like just as someone who is fascinated by the fact that our politics is so fluid, like the Electoral College is not static. Voter demographics are not static. There's something happening with these young voters of color. Now, what's interesting is it's not happening for all Republicans. It's happening for Trump. So one is Biden has a weakness there right now. He's got to shore that up. But Trump's got an appeal.

And so that's where I would expect to see him really double down, whether it's talking about this verdict, whether it's talking about, you know, when he thinks about his VP selection, his convention speech. If you think about the math of the electoral college in these six or seven battleground states, particularly in some of the ones that are have a larger nonwhite population, that's critical. So, yeah, I'm not going to run away from the fact that.

that Biden has some challenges. I think that they are solvable, but they are super complicated. So if you think about like the degree of difficulty, right? You know, I've always thought about that in campaigns, you know, how hard it is to make the progress with the parts of the electorate you're currently not cemented with. I think this is going to be a challenge. It's not an impossible challenge, but it's a challenge. And I think that's the way all of us who are watching this race should think about when we look at the world

Like what matters to me? It is these younger voters of color, middle-aged voters of color, people who don't consume a lot of news, people who get most of their information from social media who are showing right now,

You know, some pretty heavy flirtation, both for Donald Trump and for RFK. Yeah, well, I don't want to call them low information. It sort of insults them. I think they're very smart. Oh, they're super smart. They're just not paying. I guess my point is they're not paying a lot of attention to politics. Okay, they're not paying attention. That's why they're for Trump. Listen, what they're not paying attention to are the Democratic talking points and the abuse and misuse they feel at the hands of a party that pretends it's for them.

and has abandoned them with everyday affordability and long-term personal, financial, national border security. When you have a party that's standing up a couple of short years ago and saying, defund the police, and that we see the results of that in a place like Austin, where the city council member, now a member of Congress, a Democrat representing that area in Washington, D.C., cheering the fact that we did it, we defunded the police. Look what's happening in Austin now.

Early resignation, early retirements, resignations can't repopulate the police force. There was a big article recently where a woman who was in a car accident, God forbid, with her two children, everybody was trying to help them and the rescue squad, the ambulance wasn't coming or whatnot. And somebody had to call a ride share to get them to the hospital. People see the cost and consequence of reckless retirement.

policy, not a soundbite, reckless policy, defund the police. I think these young African-American and Hispanic, particularly males, are very smart. They're saying, why are you making me pay for the student loans of doctors and lawyers, Joe Biden? Why are you making my American dream out of reach? I can't afford my first home. I can't afford bacon and eggs. I can't afford

freedom to live my life. And why are we in two new wars? What is going on here? Now, I want to ask you something about Philadelphia. You and I love Philadelphia for lots of reasons. We're Eagles fans, go birds. But Philadelphia is the place.

Well, your client, Senator Barack Obama, in March of 2008, gave his famous race speech, which I think rescued his campaign from the very controversial anti-Semitic, anti-American racist Jeremiah Wright comments. His pastor, who then he sort of shunted to the side. And unfortunately, John McCain then told everybody, you can't talk about Pastor Wright anymore. Okay. So we know what the outcome of that race was. But I mentioned Philadelphia because we focus on Pennsylvania.

Very important swing state. As you know, it was my reach date in 2016. I was very public about that on the daily. How in the world can you square the race speech that Barack Obama gave compellingly and convincingly as the Democratic nominee in March of 2008, or almost a Democratic nominee in March of 2008, with what went on there just the last couple of days with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris? Why not go there?

and tell people of color, we're with you and talk about different issues and what they're doing for them rather than saying something so stupid and foolish and wrong as, well, if the January 6th rioters were black, Donald Trump will not be talking about pardons. What is Joe Biden even saying? Why did Joe Biden and Kamala Harris come up with something called the, quote, black voter initiative? What is that?

Well, I happen to agree with what he said about January 6th and what the reaction would have been. So what I would say about this is, first of all, Joe Biden's president, in part because he was probably the most prominent Democratic voice saying we should not defund the police. We need reform. We shouldn't defund. Kamala Harris gave to the bail fund, as you know. Listen, and at the end of the day, I think, listen,

So this is the campaign within a campaign. There are several of them, but the most important one is going to be the battle for this vote. And rather than just put your head in the sand and say, as a Democrat, we're going to be OK, we're going to get 93 percent of the vote and the turnout we want right now, there's a threat to it. So I think you have to go out there and make your case. By the way, I saw the speech. I read the speech. You know, there was a lot of things in there that were positive about what Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have done. Obviously, there's going to be the negative parts of it. The attacks on Trump get the most press attention. But I think it's

What you're going to see Joe Biden do is continue to say, here's what I've done as president. Listen, inflation, obviously, you know, I think we're 20 percent up, you know, across the board. That hurts people. There's no question. Obviously, you know, the pandemic was the major cause of that. It's starting to come down. We're starting to see wages now outpace, you know, on a month to month basis. But that is a tough political situation. I think the best Joe Biden can say is,

This is why it happened. This is all the things I've done. This is what I'm continuing to do. Donald Trump's economic policies are going to be centered on the wealthy, not on working people. I think that can be effective. But there's no doubt that there's economic headwinds that Joe Biden is now having to run in, which is why this is such a close race. But at the end of the day, Philadelphia, I'll talk about it from this perspective.

You've got to treat voters in Philadelphia and Hispanic voters in Nevada and Arizona as swing voters. You have to I think you sometimes say you have to adapt or die in politics. Right. So Democrats have to understand, at least at the presidential level, I think it's less acute at other races that there is a battle for support level for turnout there. That's real. So the question is, can Joe Biden get to the point in Pennsylvania where

his vote share level and the turnout in Philadelphia, he's going to win the black vote. If he wins the black vote in Philadelphia, you know, by 78, 22, he's going to be in deep trouble in the state. I think everybody understands that. So that's got to be the battle. But if you get it to the right point, the reason this matters is Joe Biden's clearly going to win the suburban counties outside of Philadelphia, Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, Bucks, and Philly. You walk out of there with a big enough vote margin. It almost makes it impossible for a Republican to win.

because I do think Joe Biden will do better than Hillary Clinton did in 16, as he did in 20 in some of the counties where Donald Trump's going to win. But instead of winning 78, 22, let's say he wins 74, 26. And you and I both know that matters. Sometimes, you know, your loss deficit matters as much as your, you know, win margin. So there's no doubt that if you were the Biden campaign, Philadelphia, Milwaukee,

Detroit, these states where his numbers aren't what you'd like them to be right now are a central battleground. You know, in Barack Obama's races, we had to work at it, but it was less of a concern, right? And so you could devote almost all your time to sort of quintessential swing voters, as we think about from a support level. We did a tremendous amount to try and get turnout. Obviously, this is a different race. There's no question about that. But I'm optimistic that you can put it together.

Thank you so much for joining us.

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wanted to mention something that happened since the last time we talked, David. I saw that Roanoke College, for example, came out with a poll in Virginia, and that college's poll found that it's basically a dead heat between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the Commonwealth of Virginia, a state that Biden carried by 10 points in 2020, and a state that Glenn Youngkin won the very next year, beat Terry McAuliffe, a very formidable former governor and luminary in the Democratic Party. I wonder

what you think of that because I have a question for you. If Donald Trump has publicly said, I'm expanding my map into Virginia where the Roanoke College poll says he's tied and where Glenn Youngkin will help him, he's going to expand it into Minnesota where he appeared recently, maybe New Hampshire. Can you tell me the three states where Joe Biden is expanding his map?

Well, listen, you and I have both led presidential campaigns and you've talked a lot about the decisions you had to make in 16 when you narrowed your map. So the most irresponsible thing a presidential campaign can do, in my view, is overinvest in states that wouldn't be your 270th electoral vote. So let's let's say if Donald Trump wins by a large margin.

It's not inconceivable he could win Virginia or Minnesota. You know, if he's winning the national popular vote by, let's say, five or six points, I don't think that's going to happen. But those states are just going to travel. Like, so the...

The way to think about it is, no, I think the battleground for Joe Biden is the seven states we've talked about, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and then Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, the important addition of the second congressional district of Nebraska. I don't see him adding any states, but I'd say a couple of things about polls. You know, in 2020, there were polls suggesting Joe Biden would would win.

you know, Texas and Florida. And, you know, even some other fake news. But but so I don't believe that Donald Trump's going to win Virginia. It's hard to see him getting to 49 or 50 percent there. But at the end of the day, it's inconceivable that there's a scenario where Donald Trump loses Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and wins Virginia. So just as a practitioner, I think you it's reporters love when you know the point is

to go in. So I hope Donald Trump spend none of the money he has, uh, in Virginia travels to Virginia goes to Minnesota because those are not going to be the decisive electoral college votes. I think you have to be very faithful as you were in 16, as I was an eight and 12 to like, what are the States that actually put you over the top? So again, if Donald Trump on November 6th,

has won Virginia or Minnesota. It's because he's won those other battleground states you and I know so well by a huge margin. So that's the way I think about it. I'm not looking at you through a demographic electoral college lens only. I'm going to be president again of all Americans. Therefore, I'm showing up, standing up, putting up. I'm coming to the Bronx, not because he thinks he's going to win the South Bronx, but because he's telling them you matter. And look at the messages he said in the South Bronx earlier.

versus the much smaller group that a president and a sitting vice president and a woman of color at that received in Philadelphia. Well, let me say this. You mentioned polling. I think this is incredibly important, David, because we both know polls. I've been doing the craft for decades.

You're poll savvy. I hope we can agree that the polls in 2020 that were so off, I mean, they were off in 2016, laughably, but we knew that. We had our own polls. I was on TV every day. I have a living, breathing catalog of talking about where we were going and why and pulling out of Nevada and New Hampshire now, even though we don't want to, and like looking at Pennsylvania. So that's a living, breathing catalog. I challenge anybody else who is on that campaign to show us their living, breathing catalog. But so I'm fine with that. What I'm trying to say is in 2020,

When you had an incumbent president and you had a challenger that most of the Democratic Party didn't want to be the nominee, you had him being attacked by Kamala Harris as a racist who didn't want someone like her as a schoolgirl riding that bus, etc. You had sort of reluctant Democrats coming around to Joe Biden in the basement.

And the polls, though, said, I mean, the NBC News Wall Street Journal poll in October 2020 had Biden plus 27 among seniors. You know darn right that was never true. It also wouldn't be true of Trump. So when I see ABC News Washington Post releasing a poll

in late October 2020 that says Biden's winning Wisconsin by 17 points. I hope in this podcast, we're both going to cry foul on that and tell people to ignore that poll. By the way, I would tell them to ignore the poll if it showed Trump up by 17 points. There's some goofy, listen, I think, you know. But that affects the vote, David. People are using polling to affect the vote. Well, then why is the polling so wrong? Well, I'm not sure. Well, no, no.

You and I have studied. I'm not sure this affects bad polls affect voter behavior. I think it affects political coverage. And obviously the 22 polls...

We're heavily off in a Republican direction, I think in 2020 Democratic direction. So listen, I think the best we can do is one, those of us who have access to private data, you know, that's going to be the most data we trust. Right. But I think if you look at polls on aggregate, I think the mistake that happens is one goofy ass poll comes out that shows somebody, you know, doing better or worse than is ever possible.

Right. And it does drive political coverage. I'm not sure that drives voter behavior. So it's a huge problem. And that's one of the things I hope you and I can do is to be nonpartisan in our critique of this. I mean, I think, listen, we could have a foreign policy event outside the two that are currently going on. We could have economic shocks. Either of these candidates are old enough. They could have a health event.

But absent all that, we're headed to a pretty close election. And so is Donald Trump going to win Wisconsin by 12 points? Of course not. Is Joe Biden going to win Wisconsin by 12 points? Of course not. So why would a poll be released? Why would anybody ever? I don't know. I mean, I'm not. Listen, but again, you and I have seen polls that have been slanted against Democrats and Republicans, you know,

Not in 2020. Well, but in 22 there was. I certainly saw some polls. Listen, we were told in 2012 there was polls that came out that showed Romney so far ahead in Florida that we should drop out, right? And Pennsylvania. I remember that. I remember his pollsters. They're still around making tons of money. But this was, I think, a sucker poll. They could just blame Romney. Yeah. Well, no, these weren't Romney polls. The media polls showed us losing Florida by like 10 points. It's like, we may lose Florida, but it's going to be close. But not by 10 points.

Yeah. So I just think the reality is and I feel bad for people who follow politics relatively closely, who do like have their own spreadsheets of and these polls come out and they're just wrong. So the best you can do is look at aggregates and also just have a belief that Republicans don't like that. It'll be this close. Democrats don't like it'll be this close. But that's probably what we're headed to.

And, you know, you've talked about the 24 or 27 counties within those counties. There's a small number of Americans that will make the difference. And so I think as we really burrow in on what's the effect of Trump's felony convictions, what's the effect of his VP selection, what's the effect of the debate?

We just have to understand that it's that small segment of our fellow citizens that will make the difference. And so, you know, whether, you know, so I think, listen, I saw I just didn't believe in 2020. It's like and I actually think General Malley Dillon, the Biden campaign, did a good job because they got a lot of criticism. You might recall this. And why aren't you going to Texas?

Because they knew they couldn't win Texas. You know what I mean? It was foolish of Hillary. Hillary kept going to Texas. Do you know, statistically, Hillary Clinton spent more time, I think it was like in Texas. In Wisconsin. I know. And she had Wisconsin. That was a mistake. But by the way, she's not even wise enough to take credit for softening the ground there that ended up being two Democratic Senate seats and I think pretty competitive Senate races in Texas here and there. Right.

Well, you might remember, I think George W. Bush, didn't he go to Hawaii in 2000? He may have, but who doesn't want to go to Hawaii? No, I know. But that's the thing. Like, you can't, you know, based on one, you just you got in. So there's polling. And listen, you know, voter behavior does change, but it doesn't generally change seismically.

And so I think that that that chasing states that will be your I mean, we certainly in 08, obviously, we've got 365 electoral votes did very well. You know, we are getting a lot of pressure even in that race to go to a bunch of places we weren't going to win. Right. Because one poll showed us, you know, within four points. But it's like, OK, we're losing a state 4642. We're going to lose it by eight points. Like we're not going to like waste valuable time and resources.

And yet I noticed from 2008 to 2012 that,

the Obama campaign sort of pulled that didn't compete as much in Indiana, for example, which you want to know, we different election, right? Different election. So different election. I remember I was Mike Pence's pollster when he was running for governor. And I felt maybe even president Obama could have gone into Indiana one more time and said, you know, vote for me and vote for John Gregg, who was running against Pence and Pence ended up with less than 50% of the vote, which unfortunately our polls had predicted. But again, North Carolina, you want it in 2008, right?

Romney won it in 2012. It's actually the only of the eight swing states that he did win. We won seven, eight swing states. We were focused on, they won one of eight. His campaign manager actually made $8 million. I made 800,000. So that tells you something about money. Also, you can have a ton of money.

But if you don't have a candidate that connects, if you have a candidate in Mitt Romney who did really well against President Obama in that first debate and then kind of sat on the lead, if you will, was like, let's not say anything else. Barack is off his game. It's like, no. Then you guys are telling him, gosh, you didn't win that debate. At least President Obama had around him people I think that Hillary Clinton never had, which is somebody's going to say no or that's not a good idea or today was a bad day for the home team, whatever the case is.

And he sort of sharpened up and I think performed much better in the other two debates. But I really just want to walk people through this because I want to get back to polling just for one quick second. The idea, David, is always that private pollsters, okay, like a Jim Messina and Celinda Lake or Kellyanne Conway or whoever else on the Republican side, like you can't trust our data because we work for the candidates. We work for the parties. Like we're biased. Guess what? If we're not good at what we do, the free market system will squeeze us out.

I'm more worried about all the media polls, all the academic university polls. Those are the ones that have been off one way or the other. And then I was like, oh my God, how are we so off? We're going to do a course correction. I just saw another article last week, another course correction. I have a headache from course corrections that never happen and don't work well because it's like, oh, we undercounted

non-college educated white voters or white men in 2016. We won't do that again in 2020. Oh, we undercounted them again, but we'll be there in 2024. It's like, you know what?

I don't believe that happens because in this country, we never deeply examine that which we deeply disdain. And if people don't understand why certain demographic groups are voting for President Trump and sticking with him, and they don't respect that, and they don't want to get to know them, it's hard for them to think I need to include them in my polling. And so I would tell our audience...

Thank you so much for joining us.

of polls are dangerous. They were dangerous in 2022 and there were two pollsters on the quote Republican side that said everybody was winning everywhere. Tiffany Smiley is beating the decidedly non-smiley Patty Marion. Gretchen Whitmer is going to lose to Tudor Dixon. None of that happened.

happened. They lost by double digits. But those guys laughed all the way to the bank because donors love great information. Everybody wants to feel better. They just want to feel better about it all. Polls have to tell you the cold, hard truth. Our job isn't even to tell you who's going to win or lose months before the election. It's to tell you how to win.

or where to invest your resources, which is the candidate's time, the campaign's treasure, the surrogate's time. And I think that even Donald Trump's VP pick ought to be someone who helps him win, helps him govern, helps him certainly can be ready on day one. But I think he's got the same geographic or demographic opportunity here that he had in 2016 with Governor Pence. But

Vice President Biden believed he had with Senator Kamala Harris in 2020. This is still important. It's important because of what you don't see in these stupid horse race numbers from polls that we can never see how the sausage is being made. So I just think you and I can do a tremendous service to our listeners and our viewers on sussing out these polls as time goes on. Well, I think that'll be part of every episode, hopefully. And I think we'll both bring our honest view

to polls that just don't seem to make sense. The other thing I'd say about polling is let's say a poll is absolutely right that the state of Wisconsin, the state of Arizona is 45-44. Let's say it's right.

Well, not all of that 45 that's with Biden or Trump or 44 that's with Biden or Trump is firm, but most of it is right. So it's like what's happening with the other 11? Like, I find that there's not enough attention paid publicly. You know, these news organizations and academic institutions are spending a lot of money for these polls and they just put out the horse race, which, again, lots of times is wrong. Sometimes it's right. But then the question is what really, really matters is.

is what's that 11 doing? You know, some of them may not vote or they are FK, you know, the, with that, that 11, that's not decided. They'd look more like Trump voters or Biden voters. It's all stuff you and I have done in campaigns. And again, even in campaigns, when you're dealing with massive data sets and huge models, you know, it's not a hundred percent accurate, but you know, you, you get as close to that as you can. So I would just encourage everybody who's, and I'm where everybody's listening to this cares a lot about this election. That's,

That's really what matters is even if a poll is accurate in that moment about where the race stands. The question is that, and in this race, you know, Kelly, and we're not seeing that many polls that say it's like 48, 49, like there's still some fluidity out there.

You know, there's people who are deciding between these two major party candidates deciding whether to vote at all. Some may vote down ballot, not in the presidential race. Some may flirt with RFK. So, yeah, I think this is an important service. Hopefully we can provide is and I would tell you having running run campaigns, you know, in the Obama campaigns, I thought we had good internal data. I'm sure you've done felt that way in 16 as well.

It's still annoying, though, because donors see it and elected officials see it. The media is like, oh, you know, you're going to lose this state. It's like a lot of things may happen. We ain't losing this state or we ain't winning this state. Like, you know, and so that's what you know, it's hard enough when you're running a presidential. I mean, it's like you sit in your seat every day and it's like you're being buffeted by Gale Force winds.

It's hard enough even when everything's in your control. So it is very frustrating because these polls can drive. Yes, I remember in, you're right, in 22, Patty Murray's going down. Gretchen Whitmer's going down. And it's like, well, if we are going down, it's going to be like a water skate-like election. It doesn't seem like that's what's happening. But I agree. And some of that was driven not by media polls. I agree that that respected private –

And obviously you do a lot of private sector polling as well as political polling. You know, there are people like you on our side as well, where I think you more than not, I trust the polling. It's when there's a campaign poll that sort of comes out of nowhere. Right. Then again, that happens on both sides that you can't trust. But but at the end of the day, I would just encourage people to be faithful to the fact that this election will be decided by six or seven states, right?

Again, if Donald Trump happens to win states outside of that, then he's won a landslide. And at the end of the day, they're not going to be blowouts. Now, Nevada is the one. There are some polls suggesting that Donald Trump has a massive lead.

My guess is by the end of the day, Nevada will be competitive. I think Donald Trump has an advantage there. It'll be close. We'll see. It could be. Six electoral votes this time. And it matters. And that's a place where some of these demographic changes we're seeing at least in terms of state of vote preference are playing out. Yeah, Nevadans, they've really suffered under Bidenomics. There's no question. If you look at the statistics up there with Washington, D.C. and California in terms of high unemployment rates, I don't think the major industry in Nevada, the hospitality and gaming industry has come back

all the way since the pandemic and certainly not during Bidenomics. So I'll be curious to see what happens because we should remind our listeners, Republicans haven't won Nevada presidentially since 2004 and President Bush's reelection. It's been elusive ever since then.

We should probably, since we're talking swing states again, David, I'll take the pen here, just the mic here rather. I'll just remind everybody what those are. Again, they're Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan. They're Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, possibly North Carolina. I don't like the fact that North Carolina is on the list. I don't like the fact that Arizona and Georgia are, quote, new swing states after 2020. Should have never made the list. So hopefully President Trump can win those back, particularly Georgia.

I see Governor Kemp, Brian Kemp of Georgia, being supportive of President Trump. I hope President Trump and he will work together because it's a very popular governor and beat Stacey Abrams twice, who was a very formidable candidate with all the king's horses, all the king's men, all the king's money, lots of Hollywood for her, cover of Vogue, et cetera. She was a very formidable candidate who's registered a ton of new people in Georgia. But I say this because swing states...

that President Obama carried twice are no longer swing states at all. I would say Florida, Iowa, Ohio, these are states that you won twice with more than 50% of the vote that are more comfortably in the Republican column. The only thing I would mention is, is that as you're concerned that President Biden is underperforming some of these Senate candidates in all the polling,

I'm concerned that our Senate candidates are underperforming President Trump in much of these statewide polls. So in five of these seven swing states, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, there are Senate races. And in most of those cases, it's either an open seat that was held by a Democrat or a Democrat is holding that seat. Trying to think if there's another example. And I'm concerned because...

Right now, those Senate candidates are underperforming President Trump overall, but particularly with respect to those new groups that Trump has made more accessible to his candidacy that we've talked about, the younger people, the voters of color, the non-college educated voters. And I think these Senate candidates need to step it up. They're being outspent. They are not doing as well in the polls. And I will tell them for 2024 what I said in 2022, I'm

who listened to it, we'll never know, but we got the most accurate Republican pollster by Nate Silver's 538 in 2022, 91% A minus rating. Why? Because we didn't run around talking about red wave and talking about all these double digit Democratic victories going the Republican way. I'm sure I left millions on the table because that had its own currency, but to be an honest, transparent pollster, I'm going to do that again here. And I'm going to warn that

If you just think that Donald Trump's coattails are long enough for you as a Senate candidate, you don't realize that in your state now running for Senate or governor, it's its own race. It's like running a presidential race for your state. You have tons of money. You have tons of free media opportunity. You have tons of opportunity to connect with the voters.

And I've just got to say to the Republican Senate candidates, step it up already. You can take out Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania, Sherrod Brown, one of the last Democrats standing in Ohio. You can take out Jon Tester in Montana, certainly. But you got to, I think we really got to step it up in a way that these guys and gals got to get closer to 50%.

And those polls in 2022, those rosy, overly sunny, overly optimistic Republican polls, I think they depressed turnout among Republican voters who were skeptical of the voting machines. So wouldn't go in person to vote. Don't trust the U.S. mail for their ballot. So didn't mail in the vote. They had their ballot in their hand on election day. And if you wait until election day and you live in Northern Nevada, there's a big snow and ice storm. Maybe you're not turning out for Adam Laxalt, who lost narrowly in Arizona.

Carrie Lake loses the governorship. Donald Trump loses Arizona. A lot of people with that ballot in their hand on election day, particularly in Maricopa County, which was the largest county we won in the whole country in 2016. So what I'm saying right now is a combination of overly rosy polling, sometimes affecting turnout for your own side, giving people this exuberance and this confidence that doesn't exist. And

And being skeptical of casting your vote early, either in person or by mail or in one of those drop boxes. If that skepticism continues, we're literally bleeding votes on the Republican side. So there's a lot going on in 2024 that I think brings together 16, 20, 22 votes.

And it remains to be seen how that affects actual turnout, which is all that matters. Yeah. Well, but I agree. Some of those polls are malpractice. And, you know, you and I talked about this when we talked about early vote. You know, the Republicans, I think, have made a huge mistake. I think Trump in particular has kind of tried to be Pied Piper there. But again,

you know, it seems like now he's going to embrace early vote given the numbers he should. Just a couple of things in electoral college. It's just a reminder that it's not static. So while Arizona and Georgia were not targets for Barack Obama, Ohio was our number one tipping point state, as was Florida. So these things change and they'll continue to change. So I think there's a big question with Senate candidates, which is, let's say these polls reflect what happens on election day. I guess it's possible that,

that Republican Senate candidates would underperform Donald Trump by six, eight points and Joe Biden would underperform Democratic senators by six, eight points.

I think historically we'd suggest that's unlikely, right? So watching that, I think, is something we can do every week, which is, are we starting to see a narrowing? And if so, who's that benefiting? You know, if the Biden campaign, you probably say, OK, we're going to get a bunch of those people back who are voting Democratic for Senate. If you're the Republican Senate candidate, you're probably saying, well, we're going to narrow that gap with Trump. And this is super important. It's important to the presidential race. But the Senate battle, which I think, you know, the Republicans, because of the map,

clearly have an advantage, just given that the Democrats have to defend West Virginia, Montana and Ohio as a start. And we're going to have a bunch of other competitive races. But yeah, that's a red flashing sign if you're a Republican who wants to not just win the Senate, but maybe win it by some margin. And so I think that's something we should watch in future episodes super carefully, which is that kind of gap this late. I mean, it's still early, but it's June is unusual.

right? In modern times. Very unusual. I think one of the best messages President Trump can put forward is you've got to elect a Republican House and Senate for me also. So divided government's not working. Divided Washington, divided nation. I need support to get some of this legislation through. And everybody knows neither party is going to get 60 Senate seats. We're not going to see that. I don't know if we'll see it in our lifetimes. Again, David, hopefully,

Both have long lives, but that's just the nature of it. And there's a little bit of a pro-incumbency bent to some of this in some of the states. I mean, you are talking about Montana, Georgia,

Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, you have incumbent Senate Democrats, long-term Senate Democrats defending their seats or their summit advantages. There are certainly some cash advantages. But I got to say in 2024, what I said in 2022 and 2018, which is if you think getting Donald Trump's endorsement is game over, you have to do what he does, everybody. You can't get his endorsement and fall asleep. You got to go work

your tails off. You got to go show the energy and the connection with the voters and give Donald Trump that. He's willing to show up and stand up and put up and speak up wherever his team tells him, here's a good place for you to go. Here's a great place to have a rally. Here's a great radio show to do from Trump Tower, even though you have to be back in court tomorrow. They make great use of his, quote, downtime, if you will, and his candidate time. And we'll see. I mean, if I were a Democratic strategist right now, I may think of having less Joe Biden

be visible until it's a scripted convention or the debates. I may focus more on those big moments than these

he seems to make in Philadelphia with Kamala Harris this week, or I think the week before he was somewhere else where he just doesn't draw big crowds and you make, make fun of crowd size and everything. Like it either matters or it doesn't. You're talking about it mattering at the inauguration. It doesn't matter at the rallies. It just enthusiasm and energy and inspiration. I just don't, I just don't. And there are different ways to gin that up. There's no question. I think right now Trump and the Republicans have the advantage of

in terms of enthusiasm and excitement and energy. I think that Biden, the Democrats have the advantage on the ground, early vote mechanics process, all of that. And we'll see. I mean, it's a, it's a balance you'd, you'd want your party and your candidates to have strength in both, but we'll see, you know, how much either side can catch up on those. Yeah. Well, we opened up the podcast with a discussion on this, and I think it would be a good place to close on it with the recent Trump verdict and

I think the big question is, will this still be relevant October, Kelly? And I'll go first. I'm not sure. I think it will be. To be clear, it will be. The question is, to what degree, with what voters? We just don't know yet. I think this is a very fluid, dynamic situation. We know that Democrats will be more engaged. We know Republicans will be more engaged. But for the people who will decide this election, at the end of the day, I just don't think we know how this is going to play out because it's unprecedented.

I agree with that mostly. Look, the hardcore partisans are already dug in. Their opinion of Donald Trump and Joe Biden are baked. And you saw all the pre-verdict polling, even much of the post-verdict polling. It suggests that upwards of two-thirds of Americans say that the verdict won't change their opinion one way or the other. Some say it actually makes them more likely to support Donald Trump. Some

Some say it makes them less likely, but that remains to be seen. What is not remained to be seen is how president Trump was able to leverage that almost organically through fundraising and

immediately with $35 million raised in record time, busting through any daily average, certainly for his campaign. I also would note that the people rumored to be on his long short list for VP did not scurry and hide. They were some of the most prominent faces and voices out in the media describing the court proceedings and the verdict and the entire indictment and conviction in New York City and

as rigged in a sham and echoing a lot of the same comments that President Trump made. That is not something we witnessed after Access Hollywood, by the way, in 2016. You saw many of them scurrying and putting out statements immediately asking him to drop out, insisting that they couldn't support him anymore. They have wives, they have daughters, blah, blah, blah. They can't do this. And then of course, they all came back around after he was elected, if not before. So I will tell you in politics, politics is beholden to we the people.

And we, the people, are in charge. We have this way of either repeating history or making history. But as somebody who's been doing this for decades, David, I'm always surprised, if not shocked, who goes this way and who goes that way when there's a big surprise. There's really no rhyme or reason. You can't predict according to a certain demographic group or geographic group or swing state that

And that's the beauty of American. We are all individuals, one person, one vote. We're not going to be told by the elites or the powers that be or the heads of the parties what to think, how to vote, who to be, and that we're less than because we vote for this person or that person. That's why this is an open question in my mind, because people have a very fascinating way of voting against race.

The stereotypes that people put on them based on their gender, their race, their socioeconomic status, their education levels, their household incomes, their geographic perspective. And so I do think that when President Trump came out right after and addressed everybody in the atrium, he had four major points. He attacked Biden. He attacked the system.

rigged system, rigged thing. He talked about we must get our country back, we'll appeal. And if he does more of the we must get our country back and here's how to do it and reflects the people's grievances more than his, then I think he's checkmating Biden in a way where Biden has to say, okay, am I overdoing Trump, Trump, Trump? Am I overdoing the messaging about Trump and the Trump verdict? And am I underdoing coverage

of the concerns people have every single day about the economy, about energy, about the wars in Ukraine in the Middle East, about the border, about crime, whatever it is they care about. Candidates have to be careful to have that balance at all times. And this is a message for both Trump and Biden. Are you going to overdo your reaction and your feelings about the Trump verdicts?

Or are you going to underdo that and overdo or underdo what everybody says are the nagging concerns keeping them up at night? And those are pretty clear in everyone's polling. Yeah. And I just end by saying, you know, we've never had a convicted felon as a major party nominee. I think history would suggest that's not a helpful moniker. We will be watching that closely. And I agree with you to the extent that Donald Trump says, you know,

I am focused on you, not myself. That would be a smart place for him to land, not just it relates to this verdict, but generally his campaign. History suggests to me he's not capable of doing that. He's very much focused on grievances to himself, not the people. But we'll see. I mean, I think generally people in political races who voters get the sense they're much more concerned about them, the voter, than themselves.

have historically done pretty well. So we'll see. But again, I think this is unprecedented and it will bear close watching in the weeks and months to play out. And I think that to your point, Kelly, and I think what Trump says or doesn't say, what Biden says or doesn't say, what Republican and Democratic officials say,

or don't say is important, but I think voters will kind of sort this on their own as they often do. And that's going to be the important thing. So thanks for being with us this week. Please be sure to like and subscribe to our podcast so that you can easily get our new episodes every week. Please leave us a good review. And if you could tell us what you'd like us to focus on and dive into in future episodes. For myself, David Plouffe. And for me, Kellyanne Conway. Thank you so much for joining us. And remember, it's easy to be enraged. It's essential to be engaged.

Have a great week, everyone. See you next time on The Campaign Managers. Have a great week, everyone.

What's good? I'm Brian Greenberg. I'm Victor Rasuk. Check out our new podcast, We Almost Made It. You guys might remember us from HBO's How to Make It in America. And guess what? We're going to have actors, athletes, fashion designers, comedians, friends. We're going to talk hustle, grind, anyone who had a dream and people thought they were crazy but they chased it anyway. We want to talk about it. We also want to hear from you. So go follow, rate, and review We Almost Made It at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Go ahead and do it. Do it. Do it now.