What the death of major Hamas political leader means for conflict in the Middle East 05:27

Well, in the space of about 18 hours, the Middle East and Iran's axis of evil has been turned on its head. So last night, Israel killed a bloke called Fuad Shukur. He was the chief of staff and third in command of Hezbollah. He was their main military figure of Hezbollah in Lebanon. And they did it in a precision airstrike on the suburbs of Beirut.

But a few hours ago, this is some big, big news. So the head of Hamas's political bureau, his name is Ismail Hanyar, and he's been assassinated in Iran. So he's the head of Hamas. Think Bin Laden to al-Qaeda has been assassinated by a precision strike that hit the bedroom he was sleeping in in Tehran. Now, he didn't live in Gaza, Hanyar.

With the people he supposedly represents, he lived in Qatar, enjoying a life of luxury. He's reportedly, or was, worth more than $4 billion. He was in Iran for an Iranian's funeral.

And it's understood the Israelis got to him. So the question is, what happens next? Given that he was killed on Iranian soil, will the Iranians decide to retaliate? Well, joining me for his analysis is Middle East expert Dr. Roger Shanahan. Roger, g'day. Yeah, hi, hi. This is a big deal, yeah? Yeah, no, it's significant, particularly these two events occurring so close to each other.

Explain to us a little bit about the head of Hamas. Who is he and what is he known for?

Well, Ismail Haniyeh has been based in Qatar. He's taken a very active role in the negotiations with the Israeli government over a potential ceasefire for the release of the hostages taken by Hamas in the 7th of October attack. He's travelled outside of Qatar previously for those talks.

And he was in Tehran for the inauguration of the new Iranian president. So Israel has previously said that any Hamas member inside or outside of Gaza is a dead man walking. But they obviously saw this is their opportunity to kill him on the soil of their sworn enemies. And the response to that, what do you think?

Listen, I think it will probably be more muted than people may think at first blush. Details about how he was killed are very sketchy at the moment, so nobody knows exactly how it occurred. We also have to remember Iran signalled what kind of response they were going to take when Israel commenced

Conducted a far more provocative attack against and killed senior Iranian figures in the consulate in Damascus. While Ismail Haniyeh was the political leader of Hamas, he was Palestinian, so he's not obviously an Iranian nationalist. Going to be far less political pressure on Iran to respond. So I think we'll have a relatively muted response to this.

even in the backdrop of what's occurred with Hezbollah? Yeah, listen, same goes there. I think Hezbollah understood there are unwritten rules for these engagements between Hezbollah and Israel. There's been a conflict going on essentially since the 7th of October on the Israeli-Lebanese border. There have been several hundred Hezbollah members

including some mid-level commanders killed. It doesn't get that much media. But after the attack in Majdal Shams, Hezbollah would have understood that there would be a response. This is, sure, a senior Hezbollah figure, but there was very little collateral damage.

And I think, again, Hezbollah will understand that there was always going to be a response. Senior military commanders can always be replaced. And I think there is probably going to be, again, a more muted response from Hezbollah than people might expect.

Doctor, just before I let you go, given that we have the leader of Hamas now dead, what does that mean for a ceasefire? What does that mean for both the Palestinians and the Israelis getting together and trying to find an end to this thing?

Yeah, listen, I mean, it's a $64,000 question at the moment. You know, there's arguments to be had for both ways. One, that it'll completely kill the idea of ceasefire negotiations. You can also mount an argument that perhaps Hamas might need to open

open up negotiations lest Israel does more of these types of actions against senior Hamas leadership. So again, the jury's out, but you'd probably think there won't be much progress in the immediate future. I really appreciate your time. Thank you so much. Yeah, my pleasure. That's Dr. Roger Shanahan, 131873.