Shownotes Transcript
Bring in Michael Shoebridge, Director of Strategic Analysis Australia. He's on the line. Michael, g'day. Hi Chris, how are you? Were you surprised at this? Yes, because I remember when it was revealed that the Department of Defence, our Department of Defence, that had negotiated the AUKUS agreement, had got no protection for the $4 billion we're giving to each of the US and UK for their submarine production.
in the event that the deal didn't go ahead. So there's no clawback provision for us. That was bad enough, but to hear that the US or UK governments can pull out giving us a year's notice and we get no refund of that billions of dollars of taxpayer money, that did surprise and disturb me. What do you think was... Are these nuclear subs and this technology, is it just...
so sought after that we as the Australian government don't really have much of a choice but just to acquiesce to all the demands of the partnering nations.
No, I don't think so. I think the problem is that our Australian defence officials see it as all about enduring love and closeness, and the US and UK governments see this as about their national interest and national treasure. So the US and UK have been quite clear-eyed and hard-headed about it, and we're acting like a romantic teenager, as if it's love. Yeah.
The thing is too, Michael, it seems to me folly to be, as Australians, trying to rely on the goodwill and the relationship of the United States government and the United Kingdom government and the successive governments that may come along for, you're talking, decades and decades to come. Anything could happen.
Well, that's where there's a bit of whiplash effect when you look at this agreement because it's meant to be a 50-year legal framework to support the submarine program, but it's got a one-year get-out-of-jail-free clause that the US or UK governments can exercise at any time over that 50 years. And you're right. I mean, Donald Trump as a US president, somebody else we haven't even met yet,
So all this talk from the government and the Navy about this is a rock solid, legally based deal and the US and UK can't step away, that's not true. And we see that in black and white. So why are we only hearing about this now?
Well, I think there's a really sort of strange approach to the public discussion around the AUKUS submarine deal because it doesn't fit with the government's story about the China relationship being all stabilised and lovely. The whole reason that Australia wants these nuclear submarines is to be part of deterring the Chinese military from engaging in a war in our region.
But every time that's raised, the government and our military senior officials run for cover denying that that's the case. So they can't say why we're getting the nuclear submarines. That means they can't make a public case. So they want to keep it all pretty quiet. Have we got any provisions protecting Australia at all in this?
No, well, that's my point about the billions of dollars of taxpayer money that we're handing over to both the UK and US so they can rebuild their submarine production systems. There's no protection for that. We just hand the money over and hope that our love and good faith is returned. Feels like a pretty big punt. Michael, I appreciate you coming on the program. This is something that certainly I thought, oh, no, this doesn't look good.
Yeah, well, we should expect the government to be more honest and upfront, both about why we're getting these nuclear submarines and about some of the risks and challenges. The public would understand that. Yeah, absolutely. Good on you, Michael. Thanks so much. Thanks. That's Michael Shoebridge, Director of Strategic Analysis Australia.
